I have no problem with picking up a QB with our first round pick, or trading up a bit. The question was how much to pay to trade up to THE #1 pick - which will probably mean trading with Polian. With the odds I cited, as much as a 44% chance of the pick becoming nothing much more than a average to good player at best, and about 50% of THAT being a bust, would you really throw in everything I have seen, up to 7 First Round picks (though I think that was in jest or sarcastic) for One shot. I say no. Even if that Pick is Andrew Luck. I have seen far too many 'Cant Miss' Number One draft picks fall far, far below expectations the fans and the teams placed upon them. To mortgage the future for a number of years with that possibility looming around in the dark no one really talks about is absurd. To throw a later lower round pick in to move up a bit to grab a suspected 'Good' possibility at QB is far less of a risk than throwing the opportunity of picking several starters over the next two-three years into the far from scientific draft of One Player to change the course of a franchise. IOW, I don't see Luck as that much superior to the other First Round QB prospects this year to thrown the kitchen sink after him, nor have a case of the vapors if we can't do it. There are a number of QB's we can choose later on who have a far better chance of being a good to superior starter than those we have had since Lord Marino. Lower the targets from the McLaren MP4-12C to the Ferrari or Lamborghini, or even a well Done Vette... we've had enough SUVs and Sports Coupes... The McLaren might in the end wreck your budget anyway.
What's the worst that can happen if we pay a steep price and Luck bombs? We're mired in a decade long rebuilding process?Because that's what we've been in since Shula went free agent happy.
I say lose out then trade down 3 spots and if Blackmon or Richardson is there take them and then take Weeden in rd two and then take 4 more offensive linemen and then take Linebacker Markell Martin because Weeden is well loved here and he could be just as a good as Griffin so screw the age thing because talent will trump age for as long as the guy is healthy and then 5 years later we take another qb and we take a qb every 3 rd or 4 th draft to secure our qb spot down the road.
This team, even with a better coach, will not win the division (let alone a Super Bowl) until we have a good-great QB. Luck looks to be as safe a bet as you can get. Now, any QB we draft will get three years to prove himself (unless he is really bad, and even then he gets two years) so we'd be locked in even if we only spend a first rounder for a QB. Yes it would be nice to build other parts of the team with the extra picks you save, but in the end you go nowhere without a QB. Now, based on the assumptions that Peyton is healthy next year, and that the Colts want to make a final 2-3 year run with him for another Super Bowl? I'd offer Indy our 2012 First, Second, Third rounders and Odrick. Not enough? Probably not, so I'd throw in our 2013 First and Second rounders. The Colts get plenty of ammo to rebuild their team and we probably get a Franchise QB. It will take some excellent drafting in the later rounds to build the rest of the team, but I'm convinced that once we have a good QB we won't need an elite WR/TE/HB or a top 3 Defense to win a lot of games. A QB means that much. I expect us to lose out and finish 4-12 for the season, but we will still need to trade up to probably the #2 pick to get Barkley if you are convinced he is also the real deal. I fully expect the Browns or Seattle to make a move to get ahead of us, maybe even the Redskins.
We are not getting the pick for that package. 1st, 2nd and a 3rd in 2012. 1st and a 3rd in 2013 and a 1st in 2014 and maybe even a roster player or two. I don't even think Polian will answer his phone for weeks leading up to the draft to avoid temptation. They will pick Luck, cut Manning and have another 15 years of franchise quarterback play. Ireland (or who ever) has to have the commitment to be willing to give up picks to move for the next guy, the guy they want whether that be RGIII or Barkley. Be proactive. If it requires trading a 2nd this year and a first next year to move up 3 spots then you do it. We are going to have to leap frog someone to get our guy because if we wait and hope someone will jump over us. This draft is all about quarterbacks obviously. Target who we want, be willing to give up a small fortune to get him and do it. Enough ****ing around. If Ireland ****s around he should be fired on the spot.
I am predicting Luck is going to be an "epic fail" only b/c it seems whenever the public is so sure about something it inevitably doesn't work out. Perhaps another David Carr situation where the OL is so bad he gets the career knocked out of him...
Right now we are likely to pick from anywhere from 4-9. If Im moving from 4 Im offering the same deal the Chargers got for Eli...this years first, second, next years 1st and 4th. If Im moving from 9 to 1 Im offering the whole draft this year and a 3rd next year to secure Luck. Luckily I like Barkley almost as much as Luck. So if we are moving from 4 to 2 Im offering this years 1st and 3rd, next years 2nd but that all depends on who is picking 2nd and 3rd and what the threat is of a Washington moving ahead of us. If its St Louis at 2 and Minny at 3, well neither is a threat to take a QB imo though in St Louis' case theyre so desperate for weapons I think putting in Davone Bess would probably seal the deal. Both Bradford and Ponder need weapons. If we are moving from 9 to 2 I dont think we can really be picky about differentiating the offer that we offer Indy at 1. So the same offer would stand
The Colts will ask for too much. It's just too much risk mortgaging away everything for 1 player when there are other QB's that are worth the risk. 1st round picks are very valuable in the NFL, no matter the position. Even 3rd rounders are valuable. I just can't trade away so much for 1 guy.
It's a different situation. You are talking about previous years of going into the 2nd round etc...I'm not supporting drafting a bargain bin, second rate QB prospect. This draft has other QB's worthy of a top 10 pick. I'm supporting going after the Heisman winner RG3. I think he will be there for us at our pick. We are still getting a Top 5-10 1st round pick QB. It's just not #1 overall. Not trading for Luck and just drafting RG3 is COMPLETELY different scenario than not drafting a 1st round top QB prospect and just waiting for free agency or 2nd-3rd rounds. Having said that.... picturing Luck in a Dolphins jersey feels good. I wouldn't be angry or upset if they paid the hefty price for Luck.
......and that's called falling in love with the wrong guy. There is one guy who was consensus #1 last year. The same guy is consensus #1 this year. Contrary to what's been said here, that ain't happened often.
ck has brought up some valid issues about RG3 and I admittedly don't know enough about him. so I will agree with Zod now. I support trading the farm for Luck if we can. I don't think there's a chance Indy will trade the pick though, is there?
I think there is a chance, like a 25% chance or so. As I mentioned before, Indy has to want to make one final "push" to get a healthy Peyton another Super Bowl and then retire as a Colt. The classic ending to a HOF career. To do that, they need a lot of picks for next year and the year after, then another first rounder so they can move up and grab the best QB themselves in 2014 (either to sit behind Manning for a year or start as a rookie if he retires after 2013). So, if Miami offered: 2012 First, second, third rounders and Odrick 2013 First and second rounders 2014 First rounder I think Indy would bite. Again, they can make a run if Peyton is healthy and still have the extra picks to grab the best QB in a couple years. The "best of both worlds" if you will. If Peyton never recovers from the neck surgery, then they grab Luck and start the total rebuild process (which could include trading away some aging star players so they have a young team around the young QB and they can grow together). No question it would be a HUGE calculated risk by Miami to make that trade. I'd rather they try and be great though versus being safe and staying at the 7-9 to 9-7 mediocrity level.
You sir are smoking some good crack!! There is no way any FO would do this trade for Luck. We're better off getting Barkley and building a team around him for a SB run.
What did the Giants give up for Elli? I'd be willing to duplicate that deal for Luck and nothing more. Everyone thought Elway was the next great thing when he came out of Stanford. Guess what? He sucked *** during the first half of his career. His career stats absolutely sucked until the last 6 yrs. He should be thanking Shanahan and T Davis for his SB rings IMO. Heck, even Eli is not an elite qb. He was fortunate to play on a Giants team that had a great running game and defense. I would take Rivers over Eli in a heart beat. Yes Rivers is light yrs better than Eli. For those on this board that are too young to have seen Marino in his hey days than watch Rivers. I swear some of his passes look like a mirror image of Marino and his lightening release!! My point being...I pray to God this FO doesn't mortgage the future for Luck.
nothing. You don't need Peyton to win a super bowl. Hell Peyton wouldn't even own a ring if his defense didn't carry the team against KC and Baltimore, where they kicked 5 field goals. You might end up with a Ben Roethlisberger. Then you don't even need a good oline. Every pick you give up is one less potential star player on your team. Ok Id give up a little more than the Giants did. but I wouldn't bet the farm
You sir have clearly not seen the Giants this year. Eli has been the 4th best QB in the league this year after Brees Rodgers and Brady. 14 4th quarter TDs and 4 come back wins plus another 3 games that Eli gave the Giants the lead late after trailing in the 4th quarter (GB, SF, Miami). Hes lost Manningham, Nicks, Cruz, Ballard, Bradshaw and Jacobs at various times for a game sometimes 3-5 games at a time. His starting LT is out for the year yet hes avoiding sacks. At this point theres a strong argument that he is the best Manning right now. Rivers meanwhile is having his worst year. And I like Rivers a lot but he is not a better QB than Eli right now.