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Suck for Luck? NO. But there will be PLENTY of QB options.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Section126, Dec 4, 2011.

What do you do?

  1. Draft Best available QB in 1st rd.

    87.0%
  2. Make Trade push for Peyton Manning.

    1.3%
  3. Make Trade Push for Phillip Rivers

    6.5%
  4. Matt Moore is out guy, use draft pick elsewhere.

    5.2%
  1. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I suspect it's going to play out like Ryan Mallett. We'll have one side arguing that Weeden's (can we agree on a uniform spelling, by the way?) talented but needs to be downgraded due to non-football related issues, while the other side claims that there's no tangible reason to make a big deal out of these issues. Then we'll have the NFL select him in round 3 and the slaughter commences.
     
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Very similar, I agree. And I've hit on the same point before, that this year's Ryan Mallett is going to be Brandon Weeden, everyone discounting him due to non-football reasons while some of us stand incredulous about it.

    However, there are a few differences.

    The process that goes between now and the Draft was not advantageous for a Ryan Mallett. His strengths were how he throws the football, how he can digest and operate an offense, how he performs in live fire situations, and how he can run circles around other guys in chalk talk sessions. His weaknesses were his personality and way of speaking (which does indeed turn a lot of people legitimately off), and his lack of mobility/foot speed. So if you think about the process he had to go through, it was a very mixed bag. Interviews are a mixed bag because he gets to impress by getting on the whiteboard, but also turning people off because of the way he speaks. His Pro Day was a mixed bag because yeah he got to throw the football and leave smoke trails on the ball, but he also had to run the 40 which was a disastrous run in the 5.3's...a result which accentuated a Frankenstein-ish impression that was already bolstered by his extreme height and size. As he was a junior, he did not have the opportunity to participate in an All Star setting which would have given the evaluators another data point and given him an opportunity to hammer home that THIS is ultimately the reason you want me, because I can practice well and play well.

    Brandon Weeden is going to have a different path because he's a senior and because he has a different strength and weakness profile. His strengths are how he throws the football, his natural mechanics in the pocket, his personality, and how he performs in live fire situations. His weaknesses are his age, the offense he played in at Oklahoma State, the lack of mobility he displayed at Oklahoma State under pressure, and a penchant for taking too many chances with the football at times. Unless the guy walks into interviews with a cane, yelling at kids to get off his lawn, those interviews are not going to hammer his age weakness onto evaluators. Rather, the interviews will allow him to put a strength on display, which is his personality. He's a bright, affable guy that can talk sports with anyone all day long be it football, baseball, golf or basketball. He knows the X's and O's, heck he taught his offensive coordinator Todd Monken the offense that Dana Holgorsen left there. So he'll constantly get the opportunity to re-emphasize that strength through all the interviews and exposure to different coaches, scouts and even owners on visits. He, like Mallett, also leaves smoke trails on the ball, and so every time he throws be it at All Star practices, the All Star game, the Combine and Pro Day, he will look very impressive throwing the football and have many opportunities to keep hammering that onto the decision makers.

    The All Star practices and game will be crucial for him though. It gives him the venue to hammer three of his strengths (way he throws the ball, way he performs in live fire, natural pocket mechanics), and perhaps even show that two of his weaknesses (lack of mobility, penchant for taking chances) might be a little overdone. I think the story of the Senior Bowl is going to be how natural Brandon Weeden looks taking snaps in a dropback offense, with natural rhythm, quick feet, etc. And if he can avoid during the game itself taking too many chances and throwing picks, then he'll have helped mitigate fears over two of his weaknesses while taking the opportunity to hammer three of his strengths. Then when he shows up at the Combine, again maybe this is just me, but I think he's going to go out there and once again surprise with his natural athleticism, moving well in drills and showing well on 40 times and agility measures.

    So while Weeden is set up similar to Mallett with how he's got great football strengths, but big time non-football weaknesses, this is a process that could help Weeden overcome the weaknesses whereas with Mallett it was a process that probably exposed those weaknesses even more.
     
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  3. Hobiesailor

    Hobiesailor Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Here's hoping we don't draft Alshon because he decided to stay at South Carolina to help Conner Shaw get to the SEC Championship game.
     
  4. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    You raise a very legitimate point. However, I would argue (not as a contradiction to what you've said, by the way) that the "process" doesn't necessarily need to yield any tangible result. NFL teams, for better or worse, like to stick to a certain blueprint and tend to downgrade or outright ignore players that do not fall within the parameters of this blueprint. They don't like, say, undersized players unless the scheme specifically demands them, even if there's nothing on tape to suggest that size will be a problem with the player in question. They are also sticklers for timed speed, even if there's plenty of evidence to suggest that the correlation between (timed) speed and success is a marginal one. My point being, I wonder if there's really a lot that Brandon Weeden can do in order to elevate his draft status. I wonder if the age thing doesn't constitute an insurmountable obstacle, not because teams have any tangible reason to downgrade him for it, but because they generally don't like to deviate from their norm and operate out of their comfort zone. A comfort zone that, let's be honest, is often defined by simply doing the same (ostensibly) proven thing over and over again.

    You could, of course, cite a JaMarcus Russell for every Drew Brees, but when you look back at the draft history, it's mostly teams like Oakland or the Bengals (read: teams have that made deviating from the norm their MO) who select the unorthodox prospects early. I really wonder if a team like Miami or Cleveland or Seattle will pull the trigger on Brandon Weeden early in the draft. Honestly, I don't see it. He's an exception to pretty much every rule by virtue of his age and NFL teams hate exceptions to the rules.
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It could be an insurmountable obstacle, but with any position, but probably the QB position more so than others, this is a process of teams falling in love with guys...especially around that 1st round area. And in the latter rounds as well, when decision makers are looking to see if any of his staff will pound the table for a guy that he really loves.

    You know, falling in love with Tim Tebow was a process of exposure, allowing Tim Tebow to win you over with how he handles everything around him, how he performs at the Combine, how he competed at the Senior Bowl, how he did everything he could and threw at every opportunity instead of trying to hide his arm, etc. That got him into the 1st round despite his being a highly unorthodox propsect. Pat White's Senior Bowl got him into the 2nd round despite his being a highly unorthodox prospect.

    And on the flip side when Drew Brees doesn't go to an All Star game, and the only opportunities team have to see him for the next 4 months after he's done playing are him getting off the bus and measuring in at the Combine, and throwing at the Combine and Pro Day (not a huge arm)...suddenly he's a 2nd rounder. Drew Brees went through a process that exposed his weaknesses and gave him no new opportunities to put out new data points on his strengths (his ability under live fire). You think he'd have gone 2nd round if the 2001 Draft were held in January instead of April? I don't think so at all. You think Aaron Rodgers would have been waiting and waiting and waiting on Draft day if that happened in January instead of April? I don't think so. But for Rodgers it was the same thing. He met all the prerequisites as far as prototyping goes, but every time he got off the bus next to Alex Smith, he measured shorter and skinnier. When they timed together at the Combine, Alex Smith was the more impressive athlete, much better agility and explosion at a bigger size. Smith threw a stronger ball when they threw next to one another. He came off as a nicer, more humble guy, when they interviewed next to one another. He scored a higher wonderlic. Alex Smith got the opportunities to showcase the things he had over Aaron Rodgers, and Aaron Rodgers never got the opportunity to showcase what he had over Alex Smith, because there's no All Star game for juniors (until now).

    As for Jamarcus Russell, the dirty little secret is that Oakland wasn't the only team that would have taken him up there. There were many teams polled that had Jamarcus as that highly rated a prospect and at one point even Cam Cameron admitted he had Jamarcus as his #1 quarterback because he'd just never seen a guy do the things with a football that Jamarcus could do. I don't think Jamarcus Russell was a Joey Harrington type event where there's been implications that if Matt Millen hadn't taken Harrington at #3 overall then Joey really would have slipped out of the 1st round altogether.

    Weeden's age might be insurmountable...but the nature of the QB position is one that forces you to go all in or all out on guys, rather than being sticklers for value. That's why I bring up that the process being geared to allow Weeden to hammer his strengths while maybe even dispelling a few weaknesses, could be important. But I still say he goes 2nd round, maybe bottom of the 1st round.
     
  6. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO there was a greater variance in what people thought of Mallet's on field ability. I know I, and many teams, had him as a second rounder before even considering any of the off-field stuff. I haven't heard people claiming that Weedon isn't good. I think I heard one minor issue (I can't recall what it was now), but that was it. Mostly all anybody complains about with Weedon is the age thing.
     
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  7. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    almost all of those guys either played professional football in the USFL, the CFL, or suited up for an NFL team behind other starters.

    You are talking about plucking a guy out of college that will turn 29 years old during week 5 of his Rookie Year.

    That's ridiculous. It's a deal breaker IMO. Him being older, also brings baggage in this sense. Maturity that he used to take advantage of younger players in college. His numbers could be inflated because of it. It also could mean that he can't be molded, and comes with his own experience.

    then you have the fact that he was a pitcher. by age 22, he threw almost 400 professional innings. The average for a pitcher through his life is somewhere around 150 innings a year from age 12 to 16, and then another 150 a year through highschool.

    This guy could have almost 1,500 innings on his arm, which suggest a short arm strength shelf life, and future maintenance surgery.

    PASS.
     
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  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Care to explain how that is relevant? Especially as it relates to the argument I've already put forth about learning curve?

    Kurt Warner, Warren Moon, Roger Staubach and Jeff Garcia all walked into the league with that same nebulous "baggage". Or do they not count simply because they played in the CFL, Arena/Europe, or served in the military prior to coming to the NFL? I guess "maturity baggage" only develops in baseball and college football?

    He has no trouble with the arm week in and week out. He's missed no time. He doesn't have his practice schedule limited because of it. His injury history with it has been clean since coming to Oklahoma State over 5 years ago. All he does is show up week in and week out and make throws that most other QBs can't make, except he's throwing the ball 44 times a game, in an overclocked offense where he has to snap the ball about 10-15 seconds after the last play is over, and so he stacks big throw on top of big throw in short time bursts...and no problem. No wearing out of his arm by the end of the game. He comfortably ends up throwing 60+ passes in a game, never does his arm weaken.

    I don't know what his MRIs at the Combine are going to show. But neither do you.
     
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  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    CK..Moon and Garcia won like 6 Grey Cups between them, Moon also was wildly athletic, as was Garcia.

    To me, I'd view Weeden as that famous Sparano saying goes:

    "A Junior College player"

    Meaning you roll the dice on him thinking he will be advanced compared to the Avg Rook Qb, I doubt his shoulder is a real issue as that was not what "Retired" him as a baseball prospect, it was the fact...he wasn't good at it.

    Problem with him is, strategically speaking, is if you don't take him early rd #1 or #2, a team looking for a solid #2 type behind their Qb will take him, think NYG or SD, or whomever, and I'm not sold that he would be worth that high of a pick.

    Keep in mind, Shaun Hill came into the NFL at 26 did not play until he was 27 and did not see significant playing time until he was 29, he is a good template for what Weeden is coming out imo, at least a mid range, and positive way to look at him.

    Though clearly he is more physically talented then Hill.
     
  10. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    i think weedon would be a good pick for the jets. their window is a couple of years and sanchez is the same qb he was his rookie year. roll the dice if you're the jets. for everyone else it makes no sense to draft a guy that old early in the draft. if he's in the 2nd rd he could be a consideration but to me the jets are the only team that could justify drafting him in the first
     
  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Just have really tough time seeing him going in rd #1 conceptually Adamp, not do to talent concerns, just how front offices think in my perception.

    Now a team, that is sneaky enough, with a HC with the balls to do that, is Sean Payton in NOLA, but he'd have to fall in love with him.
     
  12. mracer

    mracer New Member

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    That's some funny ****! I'm picturing Sparano saying this to Irish in the draft room.
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    :lol:

    More like "is that camera on Jeff? When that light goes off I'm gonna choke your *** 'kay"
     
  14. mracer

    mracer New Member

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    Lol!! Our dysfunctional front office rules!!
     
  15. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ''were gonna guard you to death''
     
  16. mracer

    mracer New Member

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    Maybe I'm smoking some crack but what would it take for Miami to trade up for the 1st overall pick if we have the 15th pick? I'm not necessarily sold that Luck is heading to the Colts. I'm certain Luck or any qb would be thinking twice about playing for an organization that throws their franchise qb to the curb. If Manning recovers than Luck would be sitting for yrs on the bench. Odd as it sounds, I think this might be the perfect storm for Miami to snatch Luck. Yes, it would take at least 2 1st rounders and a solid player like Wake.
     
  17. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    pictures of the colts owner hanging out with jerry sandusky at a boy scouts jamboree
     
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  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Uhm, more then likely you are either on a week long meth binge, someone slipped about 15 hits of acid in your drink, or somethin'.

    Ain't happen', Polian is not going to ice himself, he will pull the trigger, the rumors of "Manning to ____!" will fly, and there will be a small fire sale of vets by the Colts, think Dwight Freeney to NE for a 4th rd pick type of fire sale.
     
  19. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    I wouldn't trade for Manning, but if the Colts do let him go when they have to choose between giving him a $28M bonus in March or April or letting him... and they happen to let him go. I'd be trying my damnedest to bring him to Miami.
     
  20. Speedy

    Speedy Dolfan forever! :-)

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    Wow, there must have been something in my drink as well.:wink2: I believe there is a chance of trading for the 1st pick. Ross wants to sell tickets and the fans want a franchise QB. And he also knows that we need a QB and will make a push for a franchise guy. He may want to trade up to get Luck, because he knows that Andrew is the best. IMO
     
  21. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    IF we didn't take a QB, say the top 3-4 were off the board, what would you do with the 1st round pick? Other than make a baseless comment like that? Reach for the next QB available even if he didn't warrant being drafted that high, just to say you took one? I think anyone here would agree of the starting 22 players, far and away the worst one is the RT. Colombo probably cost us a couple of games all by himself early in the year, as poorly as he played. Why not take a guy who is as close to slam dunk borderline Pro Bowler as you'll find in the first round, at the weakest position in the starting lineup?
     
  22. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Well, I guess you really schooled me with that well thought out reply.
     
  23. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    This team is painted into a corner, where taking any lineman would cause a riot.

    I also don't believe in taking offensive linemen in the first round unless they are left tackles. Just my philosophy.
     
  24. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    You know I value your opinion, and are one of two that can make me change my mind on a player eval, but you got me scratching my head with this one.
     
  25. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    BTW, Rivers looked like a million bucks last night... Bad start to my master plan...

    Just sayin', I would force the Chargers to hang up on me. I then would take a plane and show up at their door and force them to have security throw me out.

    "So what you are saying is that you are not interested in trading Rivers?"

    Other than that, I am big time in on Trading for Barkley or just taking RG3.
     
  26. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I chose #1, but there is an asterisk there... the thing is, we can do any of the options there but it will depend on who the regime is. I made that choice because I suspect that TS at the very least will be gone and someone else will be in here.

    If it's still TS and JI, then maybe they see enough from Moore when the season is over to go that route and upgrade the OLB or S or OL weaknesses we have.

    If the regime is wiped out and a strong, name-brand guy is in here (Cowher, Jon Gruden, Fisher, Coughlin, Reid, etc) they may go with either jumping up to get one of the top 2-3 QBs and be able to use their rep on that guy being the answer. Naturally, that would also depend on whether the D is blown up (Nolan replaced/new scheme), who the OC is going to be, and whether the personnel we have really fits what they envision it should. If the new HC is Reid, he may want to keep Moore around who is a good candidate for his WCO...

    If the regime is wiped out and lesser known guy is in place, perhaps keeping Ireland around they may not want to go out on a limb and hang their hats on any QB in this draft not named Luck. They may want to trade for Manning or Rivers (IF either is available, I'm not holding my breath on that).

    There are so many variables that affect who we go after in the draft, in FA, via trade or whether we go after anyone or who we go after in the draft at QB. We have to put the cart before the horse here... Who will be making those decisions in Davie will make the difference of who or how they go after anyone...
     
  27. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    And play Jake at RT? :escape:
     
  28. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    If there is ANY chance of getting Rivers I'm all over that. I'd easily give up a couple of 1st rounders+ for him.
     
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  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Roger Staubach was a professional what...member of the military?

    I don't understand this "grown man playing against kids" stuff like Brandon Weeden is out there as a 28 year old wide receiver in his physical prime running routes against a 19 year old cornerback. A quarterback's game is MENTAL not physical. And what mental edge should he have considering for 6 years after High School he was off the football map altogether and never even thew the ball?

    The real head scratcher is this "grown man going against kids" argument that people keep putting forth. He's been playing football as long as Andrew Luck or Landry Jones. Only difference is, he undertook an enormously handicapping decision to stop playing football altogether for about 6 years and then come back to it. Who does that? Who does that and then reaches the kind of skill level that he shows out there? Who can take a 6 year hiatus from their sport, not even practicing it, and then come back and reach the kind of peak performance level that he's reached? I mean aside from fictional characters like Roy Hobbs or Scott Bakula's character from Necessary Roughness. Even Chris Weinke, he was never this good in college, which anyone would know if they watched the tape.

    If anything this guy has been at a serious DISadvantage to the people around him because of his break from football. He's playing QUARTERBACK not linebacker. How is this "grown man playing against kids" stuff even relevant? What matters at quarterback is mentally how many reps you've been getting and how much depth and nuance of a quarterback's game that you can absorb and then put out on the field play after play. And in that department, where other quarterbacks go straight from High School and, as ToddsPhins keeps bringing up, professional level coaching by guys like Steve Clarkson, they go straight to college and retain all that training by playing continuously.

    This guy wiped whatever training he had in High School clean out of his mind by going and taking a baseball hiatus for 6 years. He didn't walk into college knowing more than all the "kids" around him, and looking down on them as they struggled grasping concepts he already learned. Opposite. He walked in there with all those snot nosed brats knowing in their sleep things that he'd forgotten 5 years ago. Why do you think, with all the talent he possesses, he was still 3rd string in 2009 behind Zac Robinson and ALEX CATE for crying out loud? It took Alex Cate going 0 for 9 by halftime when he had to start the Colorado game for Zac Robinson before Weeden finally got his chance, lighting up the field like the eyes of Allah and bringing the Cowboys back from a deficit to win on national television.

    What advantages could age possibly give a QUARTERBACK at the college level, that isn't more than wiped out by that break from football where he (and his body) undoubtedly forgot things that other guys had been training continuously for 8 years?

    And you're saying that all those other guys had to be "light years" ahead of Weeden because Weeden played college football rather than professional level football (be it Arena, CFL, Europe, USFL, etc). Fine. I don't necessarily agree with that but let's just take that at face value.

    What you need to do now, is take that given, and show me why it matters in an NFL where guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder can all come in straight from college and look impressive as ROOKIES. In today's NFL, if you're good, you're showing it by your 2nd year at the most. The average passer rating of QBs taken in the past 10 years, playing in their 2nd year as a pro, is almost IDENTICAL to their average career ratings. This learning curve that people assume for quarterbacks nowadays is way, way, way overestimated. Half (if not more) of the guys that are good, are showing it already as a rookie. The rest are showing it by their 2nd year.

    Care to look through that list of QBs I posted that didn't begin their starting careers until they were in their late 20's, and see which ones still struggled even when they first got going? Not all of them came out of the gates like gangbusters, like Kurt Warner. Warren Moon with all his wealth of recent experience in the CFL which is evidently far more valuable than Weeden's recent experience in college, still struggled in the NFL for 4 years, and went on to a Hall of Fame career. Jeff Garcia also came from the CFL where he evidently amassed a wealth of recent experience that was way more valuable than Weeden's recent experience in college, and yet he was mediocre in his first year starting with the 49ers. Then he went to 4 Pro Bowls. Trent Green had been tooling along in the NFL as a backup and when he got his chance he had a decent but not special 82 passer rating. He had a 90+ passer rating in 5 of his next 6 seasons. Joe Theismann had been tooling around as a backup before he started to get his chance at around 27 years old, and he sucked for the next three seasons. He's still a 2 time Pro Bowler and an All Pro, a Super Bowl winner. Ron Jaworski had all that valuable time as an NFL backup and still struggled for two years or so before he started to play well.

    Basically if these guys from NFL history were playing in today's NFL the chances are their careers would have been more fruitful, there wouldn't have been as much learning curve. Or maybe they would. Either way the estimate 8+ years worth of games started, with the potential for up to 9 Pro Bowls and a Hall of Fame bid are all totally valid expectations IF Brandon Weeden is talented enough to earn them...which makes the age pretty much irrelevant.

    As for the pitching example, you see these guys need work on their shoulders by 30 years old. Brandon Weeden stopped pitching when he was 23 years old. Did that save him 7 years? I have no idea what that does to that timeline, but neither do you. And if we have to resign ourselves to Brandon Weeden needing maintenance surgery at 37 years old, well so be it.
     
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  30. Section126

    Section126 We are better than you. Luxury Box

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    We are not gonna agree.

    But Your opinion is well thought out and supported. I can respect that, but I reserve the right to remain terrified at the thought of his name being called for us in April.
     
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  31. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I'm terrified of drafting a DE with the first
     
  32. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I'd leave Jake where he is, and just plug in Kalil at RT.
     
  33. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Even if we had a better pass protecting LT, I wouldn't move Jake to RT purely on principle alone b/c there's no way I could stomach paying a RT more than double the price of Cam Newton. So I'd probably stick him at LG. Just kiddin.
     
  34. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I'm not sure if that's meant to be a compliment or an insult considering he's being paid $98 million. :shifty:
     
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  35. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    I really think we should shore up this offensive line with the 1st round pick!
     
  36. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I also certainly respect your evaluations and how detailed your work is. Of course I am one of those that have , and have since last year made a point of his being overage being an advantage for him . We disagree and I won't change your mind , as you won't change mine , and you may be right , or you may not be in this instance.

    The NHL has had for years a September 15 cut off date for draft eligibility , the reason being that players born the last quarter of the year have a disadvantage compared to players born before . They feel it is prudent to have those born late drafted in the next year group , much like many states decide children entering school have to be born before a certain cut off point , for example August 15.

    Now these are not exactly the same scenario , I realize it , but it does imo try to put people on a level playing field. You bring up some prudent points that Weeden isn't competing as WR for example against a 19 year old corner , but he has advantages because of his age , maturity and extended pro history , again imo.

    We'll see , it only takes one team , but when we started to see posts that he was a top 5 NFL QB , that he was the number 2 overall pick , well I felt compelled to say I don't see it.

    The age for me is a real factor and I have experience in another sport that really makes me leery to not factor in age as a benefit for his performance.
     

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