IS it me or does andrew luck have the arm of chad pennington?

Having made an effort these last two seasons to take a better look at Luck, I think he has enough arm for the NFL. I'm not an expert, but I have been watching the game for a long time and especially in today's NFL, a cannon arm isn't as necessary as accuracy and Luck is a very accurate passer. As much as I appreciate stopping the slide and winning a couple games, I am pretty bummed that we won't have a shot at Luck.

 

Agree DJ, and thank heavens because we're going to lose the SFL derby to Indy and no way I see the Colts pass on Luck.

 

we just need all these juniors to declare Rock, I want my pick and or picks of the litter damn it..lol....

Thats right 2...If its me, considering our situation and history, considering the depth of this QB class, plan B to me is aquiring two.

 

I doubt we get Luck but I want Matt Barkley. If you look at Luck and Barkley Stat line you cant tell the difference. Plus Barkley is a true Junior so he would most likely have better numbers then luck with another year in the system.

Andrew Luck
YEAR TEAM CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD LNG INT RAT
2011 STAN 221 313 70.6 2695 8.6 29 62 7 169.0
2010 STAN 263 372 70.7 3338 9.0 32 81 8 170.2

Matt Barkley
YEAR TEAM CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD LNG INT RAT
2011 USC 247 370 66.8 2782 7.5 29 82 6 152.5
2010 USC 236 377 62.6 2791 7.4 26 61 12 141.2

 

I wouldn't bet the house that the Colts pick Luck. If Manning is hurt worse than we all know or if Luck agrees to sit a few years then yeah, they probably would. I don't see any of those two things happening though.

 

in the pure context of what it means to me to be a franchise QB, I agree with KP..

The man had a potential HOF tight end in Antonio Gates..in his prime..

A HOF running back LT in his prime..

Probably one of the top 3 scatbacks in Darren Sproiles/returners in his prime for most of his starts..

6'5 elite receiver in Jackson..

and quality 2nd receivers..

Surely weaponry cannot be his excuse..

My opinion of Rivers has always been based on your exact reaction to someone saying he is ''not'' elite, meaning the perception of him is elite, whereas I debate in the context that he does not belong in that elite category...any other category fine, but not elite, not with that weaponry at your disposal that pads a QBR.

I think with that weaponry, along with a defense that was always respectable, and sometimes upper echelon, you need to accomplish more to be considered the franchise or elite, or to mock someone that says he is not.

 

You really have to throw the stats out of the window to some degree. I mean, look at the players Barkley has to throw to compared to Luck. If stats were the be all and end all then Timmy Chang would be a Hall of Famer and Tom Brady would be a third string QB in the Lingerie Bowl.

 

So off the back of 15 years with the best QB in the game, you think Indy don't see potentially the best QB of the next 15 years and think they'll pass thanks, given what Manning has meant for them?

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Manning is done.

 

Oh and the knocks on Rivers are nonsense. He's a great QB enduring a bad year.

 

Normally I'd agree about stats. They're pretty useless in college, overall. However, they both play in the same conference, with similar schedules. And while USC's receivers are worlds better than Stanford's, I think Stanford's O-Line is better.

I think they hold more merit here than usual, more than they would if you were comparing guys like Leaf and Manning back in the day. Or even Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart, or any two QB's who play in different conferences.

 

Don't see it. Two totally different offensive styles. I mean you destroyed your own argument by agreeing that Barkley had targets Luck could only dream of. That was compounded perfectly Saturday night. I don't see three Superprep All Americans at WR for the Cardinal the way I do for the Trojans.

 

Matt is hyper accurate in a short area, completing a lot of very high percentage throws to Superprep stars; screens, bubble screens, flares, swing passes, little crossing routes, comebacks, etc. Andrew throws downfield more and with greater accuracy to tight ends. Fleener is his Robert Woods.

 

Which is why I mention Luck's O-Line, which you would have to agree is superior to Barkley's no? And, yes, Stanford's TE's are arguably the best in the country. Can't disagree about Luck throwing downfield more, that's where the difference in styles come into play. My point was not to say Barkley is on Luck's level, because it's clear Luck is the better, more polished player, but just to point out that the stats might not be a useless in this instance as they would if we were comparing Luck and Brandon Weeden's numbers.

 

I don't want to hijack this thread, but when I read this, my first thoughts were, "uh, is this serious?" And, i know this started with KillerPhins statement. I love this discussion and it was one Padre and I had a long discussion about this loooooooooooong offseason (or short offseason really).

What is your definition of franchise QB? What is your definition of elite? Some response to your reasons above. Peyton Manning was surrounded by one of the 15 greatest RB's in terms of rushing yards and 2 of the best WR's in the history of the game (the greatest WR tandem of all time), one of the best, most versatile TE's in the game, yet it took him how many years to win a Super Bowl? 10?

Phil Rivers has only been a starter since 2006, so he's in his 7th year as a starter.

Was he blessed with a HOF caliber TE? Yes. How does that diminish any of what he has done?

LT played 4 years with Rivers. Only 2 of those was he in his "prime". His last two years he was a shell of the guy he was, as well as the OLine.

So, you claim Vincent Jackson is elite, yet he's never finished in the Top 8 of ANY receiving category in his career. And he's surrounded by the same options Rivers is which surely has helped him.

Before this year, Rivers' 3 year stretch (08-11), could be one the greatest 3 year stretches ever, lead the league in multiple categories over the years, TD's, wins, passing yards, completions, low interceptions, whatever you can think of.

And you can't tell me that winning a Super Bowl is what is considered elite, because the only guys that have done it in 10 years are Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Brady, Manning (both) and Brees. Guys like Tarkenton and Marino were definitely elite. You used the team/coaching argument for Henne all offseason for a reason on his struggles. Even with the talent, those teams/coaches have come up just as short including Nate Kaeding.

I mean he almost lead his team to Super Bowl with a torn ACL. Did you see the year he had last year without the services Jackson and Gates for most of it. Honestly, you two are the first two I've heard not consider Rivers elite, or one of the 5 best QB's in the league.

 

yeah lets not jack the thread, lets just say agreee to disagree, my opinion on rivers is that he is not elite, but good.

 

I like how you cut off "elite" at Top 8 when Vincent Jackson placed 9th in total yards in 2009. Very nice. Very cherry Yes he was #10 in total TDs in 2009 but there was a logjam of people around that area. take out the TE's since this is a WR comparison he comes in 7th.

His YPA is also very high. Second only to Desean Jackson year in year out. Top 10-15 out of 64 primary receivers in the league (#1 and #1) is pretty damn good.

 

It's a measure of comparison. Would you consider the top 8 QB's to be elite? What about the top 8 WR's? Maybe the problem is that some have a more liberal interpretation of elite than I do. I dunno.

Is that list of "primary recievers" including running backs or tight ends, or slot recievers? Top 10-15 of the 64 primary WR's, which includes #2 options (which in some cases like SD, where Malcolm Floyd is the #4 option, or Michael Jenkins in Atlanta was the #3 option, or how about here in Miami, where Hartline was the #3 option, yet all are considered the #2 primary receiver) is not something to brag about or use to consider elite. He's very good, no argument there, but is he Andre Johnson? Calvin Johnson? Larry Fitzgerald? Greg Jennings? Wes Welker? No. He's not.

Even if we went Top 10 there are only a few and it doesn't change the fact that he isn't nearly as productive as other players at his position with better/worse QB's, throwing attempts.

 

Elite is nebulous. It shouldn't be top 5 or 10. Some years there maybe only one. For QBs its anywhere from 2 (when it was just brady and manning for years then everyone else), to 4-6 when Brees, Rivers, Rodgers joined in. Rodgers has solidified his role in there. Brees and Rivers teeter totter, only because of Rivers this year hasn't played well, and hasn't been elite for long but still is.

For WRs who has separated from the pack. Keeping in mind I qualify that as top 2 WRs from each team as being the pack. regardless of where they lined up. Doesn't include TE's because that's a different position. So being 8-11 of the top 64 is pretty good. Elite even. Vincent is teetering on that, the only qualification being last year he missed quite a bit of time. And this year he is down a bit due to the terrible play of Rivers. Still a very respectable YPA and TD count.

But then you can cut off the elite WRs at Andre and Calvin, Welker (although I wouldn't take welker over a bunch of other guys), SS, Fitzy who seems to have found his groove again. They're ahead of the pack. But the pack isn't far behind. Mike Wallace can be added to that list IMO after this year. 1,200 yards last year and already 900+ this year.

That said, going back to Franchise QBs. They are just that, guys that lead your franchise. There aren't calls for their backup. Not all franchise QBs are elite, but I'll take a franchise QB any day.

Schaub, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, etc. You can have 10-15 franchise QBs each year. And when I mean nobody is calling for their heads, I mean no serious people are.

I'm in San Diego and the vitriol toward Rivers on facebook is crazy after a loss. he sucks, cut him, bench him etc. Not those people, the lunatic fringe. If Rivers got hurt watch all these same people start crying

 

Someone mentioned this in another thread. If we're going with a power offense with running backs galore, wouldn't a guy like Matt Flynn as a FA, free of any cost whatsoever be a nice alternative. We've done really well with free agent quarterbacks like that.

 

Again I don't agree, sorry. Having the best tight ends only means they have the best athletic slow fellas. They're not field stretchers. As for the OL, Barkley has a top 3 pick at LT and strength on the right side as well. The Cardinal are stronger inside.

 

Not sure you can surround a QB with more talent for an extended period of time that what has transpired over the years in san diego.

LT...Gates..Sproiles...Michael turner/elite backup... V Jackson...Floyd/2nd receiver..I count 4 players in the top 5 of their positions, and Jackson top 8...Plus a probowl left tackle and a pretty damn good defense..not seeing the results from a supposed elite QB..Good QB, not great.

 

Landry Jones has a cannon as well. Not Chad Henne's level, but there's not many who do really.

 

Neither have any arm strength issues. Luck-Barkley I'm not convinced although it's the former that worries me more than the latter. I think Barkley may have better timing to get his throws out.

 

They're coached by a guy named Norv Turner. Perhaps you should be focusing more blame on him.

 

You really don't see the results? He has the 4th highest QB rating ever.

He's elite.

 

''not gonna do it, wouldn't be prudent, not at this juncture''....lol.

 

Look at last year. how many "elite" or top players did he have all year? Sproles is meh. No running game last year. Antonio Gates played a hobbled 10 games. Vincent jackson 5. Floyd missed 5 games. No guy over 800 yards on the whole squad. Rivers passes for 4700 yards. Just saying

San Diego was wrecked with injuries last year. Rivers played very well with a shell of a team. That's a fact.

 

I can't agree with your opinion of Jones being the 2nd coming of Chad Henne. There is no compairison between the two college wise other than they both came in with high expectations, they both have/had great wideouts, they both have strong arms but thats where it ends. Jones is married and shows great maturity for his age, Jones has continued to improve yearly, Jones winning record is much better, there is little or no talk of batted balls at the line, his stats are much better while Henne flatlined while in college his comp % staying around 59-60% and so on.

Therefore Landry Jones is a much better prospect coming out, if he does come out, than Chad Henne ever thought of being, imo.

 

well JD, you make a good point, those sound like elite stats, however, for me, I don't believe in his skillset, especially under pressure, and how those things get more intense as playoffs and championship caliber teams get narrowed down..I don't think it can hold up, so if I don't think it can hold up, I can't believe him to be an elite player...

Good player that will need a tremendous amount of help in the skillset dept and Oline dept to accomplish the ultimate goal...This is all relatively speaking, relative to what I consider elite QB's would need to accomplish the same goal..

I have 5 QB's that are elite..Rodgers..Brady..Brees..Berger..Manning....then a considerable droppoff..

Back on topic, and to answer the OP'S question...Its just you..

 

I can't argue with that. He's elite but he doesn't have that moxie when he counts. I think the same of Peyton Manning to tell you the truth. Peyton Manning has never carried his team to the super bowl. Fact!

 

Truthfully, this is much more actionable for me to respond to. I think everyone here agrees, his arm strength is fine.

Back to Rivers for me, because I'm just so compelled here. I'm reading your responses and I think you're just using words really in the wrong context.

What skillet of Phil Rivers is not good enough or elite? Where does he need a "tremendous help" in the skillet dept? I'm sorry but his type of career production is amazing.

Answer me these questions?
Was Dan Marino elite? (check out his playoff record)
Was Jim Kelly elite?
Was Fran Tarkenton elite?
Was John Elway elite prior to 1997?
Was Peyton Manning elite prior to 2006?

What is the skillet he lacks? His release and footwork in the pocket have been compared to Marino. He's continually one of the highest rated completions. He throes the ball in the seams better than most. He's always on the top for completed deep passes. Until this year, he's always been one of the least intercepted QB's although always having one the higher attempted rates. I mean, the only thing he isn't good at is scrambling and running around, and Manning x2, Brady, Brees have all shown you don't need that.

And lastly how does a tremendous help in the OLine department have any affect on Rivers' capabilities as an elite QB? He's been brilliant his first 6 years as a starter. He's truly an elite talent and wonderfully gifted passer. He's the closest thing to Marino since Marino IMO.

 

What? I dunno. I think leading your team back from 21-3 against the Patriots and then needing a GW drive is what I'd calling carrying his team to the Super Bowl.

 

By the way, what moxie does Phil Rivers lack? Like the moxie of missing 3 FG's, 2 from 36 & 40 yards? That kind of moxie?

 

I just want to be clear that I'am analyzing him based on what he doesn't have relative to what I consider ''elite.... I'am not one that believes his arm strength is good enough, so that's first why I wouldn't rate him in that elite category, and I'll explain..So you ask me what about his skillset do I not believe to be elite?

1}Arm Strength..I don't like it Red, and I know how we all have our opinions about what is needed to make the throws in this league, but I see throws that can't get there because of some limitations, and if they do get there, the velocity is lacking, hence my point about playoff pressure highlighting this weakness, when the games get more intense the windows get smaller, and when the windows get smaller, velocity counts..

2} arm athleticism...If he doesn't have a clean pocket his motion does not allow him to get anything on the ball, so when pressure gets more intense, that pocket closes quicker, and his window to release cleanly, shrinks..He does not have the flexibility in the upper body to change his arm angles and deliver with any kind of velocity.

3} Can he shift around in the pocket to find his area to release, sure, but when the games get more intense his lack of mobility becomes an issue, definitely does not have mobility in his reportoire.

4} Leadership...where is it, cause I haven't seen it. I see a lot of yelling and posturing, but Ive also seen very talented teams that he is the leader of, fold, and fail to meet expectations.Elite QB's don't get head coaches fired.

4} What I do think he is elite at??, the checkdown, and working inside the box..Darren Sproiles is anything but a meh checkdown running back or whatever that word was used earlier, its no coincidence that his departure and a bad year for the QB has happened.

Is he in the top 10...sure, but in this case I'am nitpicking to what I have believed to be an overrated perception, and it hasn't just been this year, I think he fits nicely in the 2nd tier of QB's in this league.

 

Knowing his kicker is crap in the playoffs yet still making him kick 36, 40 yard field goals in the playoffs. That moxie. I watch every single Chargers snap. I'm in San Diego. Trust me on this one. Rivers doesn't have it. He's top 5, 7 easily. But there are some who aren't great yet play big when the stakes are big (Sanchez) and there are those who are opposite.

Aha, tricked you!

How did he get to that Patriots game?
1 TD 3 INTs 71 qbr against KC. KC!!!! Not carrying.
0 TD 2 INTs 31.9(!) QBR against Balt. 5 field goals! <---- Jay Fiedler, Chad Henne, and Gus Frerotte could have won that game. Maybe not Ray Lucas though.

He didn't carry them. The defense did. When it came to crunch time he crumbled. Thank goodness he played good in that NE game though. I'll give him that. Dominic Rhodes was the true MVP of the Super Bowl.

I stand by my original assertion.

Ok we're derailing this thread even though it relates to QB play. Hmm, how do I tie this to Andrew Luck ...

 

Jdang, I don't think he played the Chiefs and Ravens that season. He played the Titans and Colts.

 

Kaeding missed 3 FG's all year and was a Pro Bowler. Are we seriously going to go that route? He should have not trusted his kicker to be able to make 36 & 40 yard FG's. You know how many he missed all season from that range? 0. That reasoning is hogwash IMO.

You didn't trick me. I knew you were leading to that, but the fact remains, he played a helluva game with a 4th quarter comeback to carry that team from the AFC Championship to the Super Bowl, where he played another solid game.

 

Oh by the way, Kaeding's career FG% up to that point in the playoffs before that game: 8/12, 75% not exactly terrible and he was coming off making 5/5, including 4 against NE in the AFC Championship game, where Rivers played with a torn ACL.