Indy vs Miami: The Strength of Schedule Race

I agree with Phinish Line. If Indy gets #1 pick, they trade down and try to get Manning a second ring.

 

Something I don't think anyone has posted, has anyone thought about how the texans, jags or titans would feel about colts getting Luck? After having to deal with Manning for the last 10yrs? Maybe one of these teams lay down towards the end of year against the Colts. I'm sure they don't want to see an injustice as much as us Dolphins fans.

 

It changes every single week. There's really no point to declaring the Colts or the Dolphins will win a possible tiebreaker right now.

ANything can happen.

 

Don't be surprised if Manning's injury turns out to be career threatening.

 

Tell that to:

Montanna
Favre
Bledsoe

All 3 of these guys had young bucks behind them and 2 of them are hall of famers. All 3 of them were pushed aside for the young buck. The Colts will draft Luck if they have the opportunity. If they get an offer for Manning that's good enough, they will take it. If they don't, Luck will sit behind Manning for a year and take over in 2013. Indy will move on from Manning. This is a business.

 

As long as the Tonester insists on Herman Munster playing RT, Matt Moore is just living on borrowed time.

 

Young was largely considered a bust when he was traded to SF.

And Brady was a 6th round pick. I highly doubt the Pats were thinking he was going to be a big part of their future after Bledsoe got injured.

The Favre situation is the only one that's pretty similar. However, Favre looked like he was closer to retirement (stats wise) than Peyton is right now.

 

You nailed it here. The ONLY reason the Packers took Rodgers was for insurance (remember Favre was dicking them around about retirement), and he was great value at that spot in the draft. They had no clue he would fall that far, and had to make a tough call. It worked out for them.

If the Colts take Luck, it would honestly be the first time we've seen anything like this. I personally think Peyton will come back next year, and be the Peyton of old.

 

Nope not even close to the same scenarios. Young was a bust from Tampa, Rodgers fell to Green Bay in the late 20s and Brady was a 5th round pick. Taking Luck 1 over all tells Manning he's a goner within 2 years. Not even remotely close to any of those other cases. This is telling a hurt HOFer with 5 years left in the tank that its adios after a year of mentoring your replacement. This is a move that would be a PR nightmare. You have to trade Manning or the Luck pick if youre Indy.

 

With this neck injury (which is very serious from medical profession analysis) I just cant fathom 5yrs more for Peyton. I would put the max at 3yrs; but honestly I think regardless if its 1 yr or some how this magical 5yrs it will be with many missed weeks. A degenerative neck injury - bulging disc that saps arms strength - is a NEXT HIT and you are gone type QB injury. The man can barely stand on the sideline in street clothes and turn his head. Just dont see 5 more productive seasons.

Indy has to see the same writing on the wall. Regardless of love fest with fanbase, Irsay and Polian are no dummy, they have to take Luck @ #1 to hedge the greatest bet of all time. 2-3 decades of QB play.

Only something SF, MIA, and GB have put together. They know from the missing out on Elway debacle to the landing of Peyton success that QB is to risky to pass on. No way Luck escapes their grasp for picks.

They can take Luck and cover the QB position for the next decade plus, and they can still use picks in round 2-7 to solve any holes, along with FA and see if Peyton can return. But by 2014 or 2015 max, Luck is the QB after pitching in for Peyton. I just dont think its a given that Peyton plays much going forward.

Indy FO knows this...they have to know this....the best hedge is Luck to prevent the type of play they are witnessing with the likes of Painter, etc.

 

that is the most ridiculous thing I've read yet. stuff like that doesn't happen in the real world.

 

Your assumption of "5 years left in the tank" is a pretty big one, IMO. I hope that Irsay and co. come to that same conclusion, but they are bright enough to know that Manning may never play at a high level again.
This is more about whether they cave to the fanbase and Payton or not.

 

Ill say it again - THREE Neck surgeries in TWO years. Nerve Damage. There is no gauarantee that Manning will set foot on the field again, let alone be counted on to play 30-40 more games injury free.

And people are underestimating the Montana/Young situation. While the press/public may not have thought of Steve as a good QB and a bust, Bill Walsh was under no such impression.

The Rodgers/Favre comparison is the most apt though. Why did they take Rodgers? It was because they couldn't count on Favre (the reason is not the same as the Indy/Manning situation, but the bottom line is that for whatever reason, they no longer could count on their QB), and a franchise caliber QB fell into their laps.
Indy could find themselves in the same situation - they can no longer count on Manning, and here they may have an all time great prospect fall into their laps. It might be tough for them to pass on Jones/Barkley/Weeden if they aren't first overall, let alone passing on Luck.

I want to think Indy will trade the pick, but I can't put much faith into that.

An intriguing thought - people have claimed that the Jets may pull a stunt like that against us. Perhaps a team could do it to the Colts.

 

Manning isn't even on the IR for the year is he? Pretty strange that the Colts would be keeping the option open if his injury was career threatening? I haven't read about this is there a story posted somewhere about his neck injury being considered the end of his career? Everything I've seen points to him coming back. He didn't miss a game until this year. I find it hard to believe the Colts would be playing this injury down at this point. Manning is coming back to play again. If it were in another uniform thats a big gamble for the Colts to take. I think people really downplay how important Manning is, this is a once in a lifetime player that you are going to toss aside for a "can't miss" Qb prospect? Not so sure about that one. I love Luck and hope we get him but if we had Manning I'd hope we were making the trade and giving him another 3-5 years to win another Superbowl. I mean does loyalty mean anything as a club or fan these days? If Dan Marino was in his last 3 years I'd hope we make the trade before we tossed him aside for a can't miss rookie.

 

That's precisely why Manning isn't on IR. The Colts need to know how serious Manning's injury is and whether or not he can fully recover from it before they make a call on a young QB. With Manning on IR, they'd be flying blind.

When you're Indianapolis, you really need to know if the guy has a couple of years at a high performance level left. Because if he does, trading the potential #1 selection becomes a very valid option, especially considering that they need help on the defensive side badly. But you can't make that call when he's on IR and not allowed to practice. They aren't keeping him on the active roster because they still expect him to play; they are keeping him there because it allows them evaluate his health in something at least resembling a game day situation by the end of the year.

 

I think you give these owners/GM's too much credit. They may not go out abd tell their team to lose the game but they will play scrubs, just to see what they have for next year. Knowing that's the best way to lose the game. I don't put anything past any organization these days.

 

Polain just came out and said Manning will practice with the team when he's able but will not play this year.

Do you guys need more proof on what's happening? They want to see if they draft Luck or trade him for a boatload of picks/players. Manning's chance of playing this year is the same chance as the sun crashing into the earth tomorrow.

 

Link please.

I read a statement where Polian said that he expects Manning to practice this year, but made no statement about whether he'd play. It was in response to a question about why Manning was not on IR. If that's the statement you're referring to then IMO you're reading what you want to read and not what he said.

 

Polian said that he didn't think they would play Manning given the current state of their o-line.

As CK pointed out, if the o-line gets healthy, as it seems to be with Castonzo and a few others on the mend, then Polian will have been telling the truth. He wouldn't play Manning behind this patchwork line but might behind a healthy line

 

The similarities in all of these is that you have a STUD in waiting that will be a franchise QB for you for the next 6, 7, 8+ years.

Montanna was getting old, Young there to replace him and extend the 49ers fortunes for another 8-10 yrs
Bledsoe just took the Pats to the AFC Championship game, but Brady won them the Super Bowl
Favre was getting older, dicking the Pack around a bit, Rodgers fell to them in the 20's, Pack moved on from Favre 2 yrs later

Peyton is 35, just had 2 neck surgeries in the last 18 months, and they have the rare opportunity to extend Indy's fortunes for another 10-15 yrs by taking Luck.

I don't get why those other situations are so different. This is a business. If you have another alternative available to you who is younger and we all know how hard it is to find a franchise QB, and we all know how much it means to have a franchise QB, why wouldn't the Colts take him. If Peyton wants to have a hissy fit, let him. As the Indy ownership, I'm telling Peyton we are setting this franchise up for 10-15 yrs of more success....if you don't like it, leave.

I know we are all trying to find a reason for the Colts to pass on taking Luck for our Dolphins sake, but it just doesn't make business sense for them to do so.

 

2 Things......your signature is outdated

 

We can look at it week to week ... or look at the reality of the situation. The 3 teams in the Colts division that count twice vs their SoS are going to lose a lot more games than Pats, Jets, Bills.

Houston prob about 11-12 wins
Tenn probably a sub .500 team and have a very good chance to lose 5 of the next 6 games
Jags 3-4 wins tops ... might only win 1 more game the rest of the season

So if you go conservative and favor results that favor Miami SoS vs the Colts:

Texans win 13 lose 3
Titans win 9 lose 7
Jags win 3 lose 13

Bills win 9 lose 7
Pats win 12 lose 4
Jets win 9 lose 7

That is still 6 games in Indy's favor.

Can it happen? Sure ... IF:

- the Bills & Jets go into a tail spin ... for that to happen though, Miami would have to split with them which defeats the purpose of S4L with any victories over 1

AND

- the opponents we face that are not on the Colts schedule would have to tank

AND

- the Colts opponents not on our schedule go on a hot streak the rest of the season

Until it happens ... I feel like the odds are stacked to much against us to have a viable chance to win any tiebreakers

 

It makes sense if you feel like Peyton is still a Superbowl caliber Qb. If they can infuse the team with a ton of talent win a couple of Superbowls now, and take Peyton's eventual replacement in a year or so isn't that a smarter move than hoping you can win a Superbowl someday with Luck? If you take Luck you are rebuilding the entire team around him, probably getting a new coach, etc. Its a big move, its not a given that it will work either. If Peyton is healthy he's still the best bet at multiple Superbowls. I'm not searching for reasons as a fan for them not to take him, its a real decision that the Colts have to make.

Its easy for you to sit there on the internet saying, "Hey if our HOF Qb that is literally the face of the franchise wants to leave let him leave", but as an owner who is on the hook for 10s of millions of guaranteed money how real of an option is it to just let him go? Peyton also gave the Colts cap relief the way he structured his deal, he's been decent to them it wouldn't look good for the franchise to shove him aside after an injury.

 

They will take Luck if they get the first pick. Makes no sense not too...

 

I'm not saying you cut Peyton. You do everything to try to move him and add more picks/players to set yourself up for the next 15 years of having a Franchise QB. As an owner, I don't care if Peyton has been decent to the team. I'm drafting BPA and that happens to be a QB to replace my AGING QB who is fighting two or three recent neck surgeries. If Peyton has a fit, you do everything you can to move him. If he refuses to play, let him retire. If he plays, you let him play for a year or two and move on at that point (ala the Packers). We all know that no player is more important on the field then the QB. Understandbly, Peyton happens to be the most important QB to his team, but that won't stop an ownership from locking in his replacement in a couple of years.

 

Hey guys, do we have a rooting interest in the bills and jets game or it really doesn't matter as it pertains to SOS?

 

Ummm. Miami COULD do for John Beck what they did for Tebow. I don't count on Miami doing anything. I was forever the optimist; thinking Miami had a shot at beating anyone. Now I feel like Miami is the cure for what ever ills our opponents. We find ways to lose. I won't surprised if we continue that tradition against the Redskins and, good grief, John Beck.

 

Jets actually. Get the Bills to 3 losses. Root for NYG as well. The more losses for each AFC East opponent the better.

 

And root for Jacksonville.

 

There really is no actual difference whatsoever.

 

We just need losses by division opponents. But I say let's keep them all bunched up within a game or so of each other so they all have incentive to play us at full strength towards the end of the year