NOpe, we wanted KC win...and we got it. [TABLE="width: 304"] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]HOU[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]HOU[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]CLE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]CLE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]PIT[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SD[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]TB[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYJ[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]KC[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DEN[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]CIN[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYG[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]NO[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KC[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]TEN[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]WAS[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]ATL[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BUF[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]JAC[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DAL[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]CAR[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]OAK[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]NE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PHI[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]BAL[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD="align: right"]50[/TD] [TD="align: right"]42[/TD] [TD="align: right"]92[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD="align: right"]54[/TD] [TD="align: right"]42[/TD] [TD="align: right"]96[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]SoS%[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]SoS%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.5435[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.5625[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
To win SFL we need all our opponents to beat us then lose every other game. Conversely, we need the Colts opponents to win every possible game.
The KC win help push INDY's SoS% higher..... so, this helped us since we had both KC and SD we knew it would be wash (of course TIE would have been great). KC is only on the INDY schedule so the WIN by KC helped us by hurting INDY.
Why is a smaller SoS better? Sholdn't the team who has a harder SOS get the 1st pick logicly? I am confused with the rules on that
Is does seem odd....but makes sense really. Its just the opposite...the easier schedule gets the better draft pick. NFL feels if you have lower SoS % you played an easier schedule where your opponents racked us less wins....thus, if you only WIN say 1 game against that schedule compared to a team that also won 1 game but played a group of teams that WON more game or Higher SoS % you need more help. Kind of the shortest midget theory.....you both stunk, but not being able to WIN more games during an easier schedule means you need more help. Makes sense.
Basically... if 2 teams go 0-16, they both sucked.. but who sucked more? The one that played a harder schedule or the one that played the easier schedule? The answer is the one that played the easier schedule and still went 0-16, by definition of the rules.
What??? They are on both ours and INDYs....the MORE Wins the better by KC going forward...including if they beat us. It hurts INDY more. We also want SD to lose going forward since they are only on our Schedule and each loss helps us.
^This.... We want the fewest Wins to grab the #1 pick In the event of a tie with another team such as INDY with same # of wins, then we need to win SoS% tiebreaker. Long shot, but so far so good. That said, each of our scheduled opponents we want them to rack up lots of Losses to lower our SoS%. Less wins by our Scheduled opponents the better. As stated, yes, we want INDY to WIN games, but at the same time, we want their Scheduled Opponents to WIN lots of game to raise Indy's SoS%. More wins by Indy's Scheduled opponents the better.
Glad the Pats lost this week then. Glad Packers play the Chargers too... Hope they go 8-0 and the D0-7HINS go 0-8
Now I get it. Thanks for the lesson. Seems like everything is favoring the Dolphins. The past less-formidable opponents of the Colts have been on a winning streak(Bucs, Bengals, Chiefs). Hopefully the Titans can go on.
I'm not really sure how it will affect the SoS for either the colts or fins, but I would plan on KC losing next week, simply because they should win.
BDH, sorry brother but I think you've made a small mistake. You have to include the teams you play twice into the equation twice or you will be off imho. These are the corrected figures added to your's and IND looks better than us, sorry to say. NE 5 2 HOU 5 3 BUF 5 2 TEN 4 3 NYJ 4 3 JAC 2 6 64 49 113 65 54 119 SoS% SoS% 0.5664 0.5462
we are not winning the SOS%, our division will finish much better than theirs, and will make our SOS harder... no need to even do this this week, they play jacksonville twice which will have like 3-5 wins on the season... while every team in our division we play twice will most likely have a winning record
I don't think not counting the other games twice is a mistake in math. Its moreso throwing out the assumption that the proportion of W/L will stay the same for the 16 game duration. By counting NE twice at 5-2 assumes that they will go 11-5/12-4. Counting the Bills twice assumes that the Bills will also go 11-5/12-4 and the Jets will go 9-7. These are based on assumptions that present performance will stay constant, but seeing as though all of these teams also play each other twice, those records are unlikely. To me, prorating the entire season based on the current wins takes into consideration a number of assumptions where using the actual 8 week results provides data on actual events. I'm no mathemetician though.
Hmmmmm, ok, thanks. Makes sense....16 team, 16 games = 256 total. Your 3 division opponents are counted twice. [TABLE="width: 318"] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]HOU[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]HOU[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]CLE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]CLE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]PIT[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SD[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]TB[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYJ[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]KC[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DEN[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]CIN[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYG[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]NO[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KC[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]TEN[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]WAS[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]ATL[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BUF[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]JAC[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]DAL[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]CAR[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]OAK[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]NE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PHI[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]BAL[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BUF[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]TEN[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NE[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]HOU[/TD] [TD="align: right"]5[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NYJ[/TD] [TD="align: right"]4[/TD] [TD="align: right"]3[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]JAC[/TD] [TD="align: right"]2[/TD] [TD="align: right"]6[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD="align: right"]64[/TD] [TD="align: right"]49[/TD] [TD="align: right"]113[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD="align: right"]65[/TD] [TD="align: right"]54[/TD] [TD="align: right"]119[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]SoS%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]SoS%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.5664[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.5462[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I have always agreed that SoS% wouldnt be our friend, because JAC is counted twice and Ten and Hou wouldnt win as many as NE, BUF, NYJ that it would take a miracle to pull of SoS% tiebreaker with INDY. Still rooting for Every other NFL team to get to 2 wins including Indy, and Miami have 1 win to end to the regular season. I still want our 1st win to get here as soon as possible to remove all doubt.
Speaking purely on the Indianapolis vs Miami battle for Andrew Luck, we should be cheering for the following: 1. Indianapolis over Atlanta (obvious) 2. Kansas City over Miami (obvious) 3. San Francisco over Washington (seems likely) 4. Green Bay over San Diego (seems likely) 5. Houston over Cleveland (seems likely) 6. Chicago over Philadelphia (questionable) 7. Tennessee over Cincinnati (questionable) 8. Seattle over Dallas (not likely)
This is twice as ridiculous as mapping out playoff scenarios with 9 games left. The Dolphins fan base has lost their collective minds.
Let's pretend for a moment that both the Dolphins and Colts lose in Week 9. If games #2 thru 6 above play out like we want them to, I'm showing that our strength of schedule will fall below the Colts' strength of schedule. Their SOS would be 0.561 and ours would be 0.550. We would still be half a game behind them for the #1 overall pick because we've had our bye week and they haven't, but our SOS would be worse than theirs.
Long shot.....I am rooting for all our scheduled opponents to Lose as often as possible....and all Indy opponents to WIN as often as possible. But ultimately rooting for Indy to rack up 2 wins....and Miami to rack up 1 win when Regular Season ends. That will be cleaner, and I am greedy I dont want to rotate in rounds 2-7 especially if we both have same number of Wins and end up losing the round 1 tiebreaker. Would be horrible feeling.
Actually, what seems to not be favoring us is how terrible the Jaguars are. They're the main force dragging down the Colts' SOS relative to ours.
Here's a novel idea, why don't you just stay out of threads where people are discussing things you don't prefer to discuss? Tale a few minutes to wrap your mind around such a complex idea, and think about it.
Nope sorry but you are wrong, their numbers will change each week, It is not based on what may happen but what their actual record is and the fact that we play them twice. You must count each team you play each time you play them.
Yeah, thanks for pointing that out....I researched past seasons, and NFL does use 256 games of your opponents records for SoS%. Thus 16 weeks, and 16 records with your 3 division opponents counted twice. If you only use 13 opponents full records that would only be 208 games. So to get to 256, you do count division opponents full records twice. Rules for determining draft order The Draft currently lasts seven rounds. The draft order is determined by first generating the order for the first round. That order is based generally on each team's regular season record, with the exception of the two Super Bowl contestants, who are placed at the end of the draft order. Tiebreakers and specifics are as follows: Any expansion team automatically gets the first pick; if there are two expansion teams, a coin toss determines who picks first; the other team will pick second in the expansion draft. The winners of the Super Bowl are given the last selection, and the losers the penultimate selection. Teams that made the playoffs are then ordered by which round of the playoffs they are eliminated. Teams that did not make the playoffs are ordered by their regular-season record. Remaining ties are broken by strength of schedule. For draft order, a lower strength of schedule results in an earlier pick. If strength of schedule does not resolve a tie, division and/or conference tiebreakers may be used. If the tie still cannot be broken, a coin toss at the NFL Combine is used to determine draft order. (Note: Strength of schedule is the combined records of a team's 16 opponents, including games played against the team in question, and counting divisional opponents twice. Because of this, each team's opponents' combined wins and losses—counting a tie as a half-win, half-loss—will add up to 256, so a team whose opponents had more combined wins has a better strength of schedule.)
Why is tracking and comprehending what the future will tell us a waste of time? Is tracking current record a waste of time to see where you stack up? If after current record, a tie-breaker such as SoS% used, isnt it nice to track it and understand how it could be impacted. I see this as no different as a PLAYOFF GENERATOR to figure out what it takes to qualify......its a DRAFT GENERATOR really. I dont find it to be any more or less a waste of time than normal!
I don't understand people who want us to win from this point in the season. what good is 8-8 (at best, never gonna happen) to this franchise you still got the same young players next year to build upon.
Well one point, 9-7 is technically our best record remaining. point #2, I am stilling rooting hard as fan to avoid 0-16...so the sooner the better for win 1. regardless of rooting interest...my viewpoint carries no more weight than those that want 0-16. Neither of us control the actual performance...anymore than those that want us to run the table for 9-7. Also as a Fan I am rooting for GB to secure its 1st Loss! The sooner the better on that one too.
Correct 9-7 I must have been getting a week ahead of myself... Hey if we could win 3 and get the 1st pick would be great but Indy looked like they through the towel in 2 weeks ago to me..
