Heck of a day of quarterback matchups coming up this weekend. While everyone seems to be caught up in the 8:00pm EST Stanford at USC game, featuring a head-to-head battle between Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, there is another QB battle happening this weekend that could have more Draft implications. At 3:30pm EST, Baylor will play at Oklahoma State in a game that pits Robert Griffin, III against Brandon Weeden. What I like about this matchup is it would seem to me that there is more at stake. Is Matt Barkley going to unseat Andrew Luck as the #1 overall pick tomorrow evening? No. Not going to happen. However, I would say that both Brandon Weeden and Robert Griffin are hanging around each other in that 2nd round area at the moment, and they both could face uphill climbs due to things that are not in their control. What I mean by that is, Robert Griffin III isn't getting any bigger. He's barely over 6'0" if you ask me, not the 6'2" he's listed, and I don't think he's really 220 lbs either. You can't make him any taller. It's out of his control. Similarly, Brandon Weeden just turned 28 years old. He can't get any younger, it's totally out of his control. These are issues that could and should affect both quarterbacks' draft stock. But, how much? That's the question. If they're both in that 2nd round area then they're both competing to try and get teams to fall in love with them. So this game should be interesting. Here are some previews: Baylor at Oklahoma State - Robert Griffin, III I have my druthers about RG3. He has several things going for him that will avail him in the pros, sooner or later. For one thing, he's an extremely smart guy and very professional. For another, he has really good accuracy. He also, of course, has great feet and can really move around. However, this is where the positives mostly stop, for me. He's small, and I question whether he's seeing the field from inside the pocket. When you keep him in the pocket and he's not going off a first read off play-action, he's usually in trouble. He wants to break contain after that, so that he can see his targets better. As a result of this style, along with his lilliputian stature, he takes a wicked beating during these games. Injuries could plague him in his pro career. The beating he takes during the game affects him in the 4th quarter, where he's now developed a trend for fading pretty hard. If you look at the quarter-by-quarter splits, you'll see what I mean. I don't like his touch. I don't think he has ownership of the ball or can vary the trajectory of his throws. He has a very slow setup and delivery. I'm told by a former coach that the reads he is making on the field are high school reads, very simplistic. His surrounding cast, especially Kendall Wright, are very underrated and I see them creating vicious amounts of separation in man coverage all the time, and also winning on deep passes that other, less talented players would not. When you get right down to it, Baylor has played some of the very worst passing defenses in the FBS. Out of 120 FBS teams, TCU (#85), Rice (#116), Kansas State (#43), Iowa State (#82) and Texas A&M (#83) generally have poor rankings by Passer Rating (NFL). And of course, Stephen F. Austin is an FCS school where their pass defense ranks #77 of 126 by passer rating. Oklahoma State will be a much stiffer test for Robert Griffin, III. Though their defense is reputedly porous, they have playmakers in the secondary and have allowed only an 8/15 ratio of TDs/INTs. Tearing the Cowboys up with the passing game would be a little bit different from having tore up the likes of Texas A&M, TCU or even Kansas State. This Robert Griffin, III train is a nice little phenomenon this college season, and this weekend we're going to get a taste of how far this train will keep rolling before it stops. I think if Griffin can physically survive the hits in the pros, eventually he could be a good quarterback because of his brains and his inherent accuracy. But I also believe that is going to take a long time, and that he will face risks along the way both physical and mental in nature. When I hear him talk, I don't get a sense that football is #1c in his life behind only (#1a) God and (#1b) family, to borrow a line from Vince Lombardi. I get a sense that there are a lot of things he wants to do in life and if he suffers some setbacks in football, he might start trying to do those other things. Baylor at Oklahoma State - Brandon Weeden The most interesting part of the specific draws involved in these two games is the fact that you have two guys in each game that will definitely be competing with each other for Draft position. To me, it's arguable that Robert Griffin, III should be a 2nd round pick instead of a 1st round pick. It's also arguable, to me, that Brandon Weeden should also be a 2nd round pick instead of a 1st round pick. That puts these two quarterbacks together in a position to be competing with one another in the game of trying to get teams to fall in love with them. I would argue that Brandon Weeden should be taken ahead of Robert Griffin, and I predict that in this game you'll start to see why. My love affair with Weeden began last December/January, as I began investigating him more to see if he could come out. I created a number of YouTube videos that you can still find out there if you search for them. It's hard to say what struck me first on him, whether it was the rocket arm that makes tough throws look easy, the relaxed pocket presence and knack for not taking sacks, or the aggressiveness with which he picks his throwing targets. They all stood out, and that to me is still who he is as a quarterback. He is a guy that manages the rush superbly and calmly with his feet, has excellent eyes to see the field as the play develops, an arm that can bail him out of just about any situation, and the aggressive mentality to regularly make throws that 95% of the other guys won't make. He'll take a normal decision and err on the side of aggressivenes, knowing he can do things with his arm. That's an Aaron Rodgers quality, it's part of what makes Aaron Rodgers so good. If Weeden had much athleticism to him (I doubt it), then Rodgers would be his best comparison. He's got some some Aaron Rodgers in his head, Ben Roethlisberger in his arm, and Tom Brady in his handling of the pocket. When he's off, it's because he's victim of his own aggressive mentality. He doesn't have perfect accuracy. He has a pro's arm, throws the ball as if he's been throwing a ball professionally for 10 years, very comfortable with his throwing and very consistent with it. But that doesn't mean he has perfect accuracy. He can go on streaks, you can see him go cold at times. When that happens, his aggressive mentality hurts him. He threw 6 interceptions in his first 109 pass attempts this year. He then went 194 pass attempts before he threw another one against Missouri, with all of his top receivers out of the game injured. Brandon Weeden has been tested this year, particularly by Texas, but he has not played many other good pass defenses. He's played LA Lafayette (#53), Arizona (#115), Tulsa (#68), Texas A&M (#83), Kansas (#119), Texas (#19) and Missouri (#63). He had a little bit of a tough time with Texas, wasn't happy with his performance despite not turning the ball over, leading 38 points of offense in a victory. He bounced back against Missouri and was almost perfect on his accuracy. I think I charted only 4 uncatchable passes that day out of 49 attempts. Unfortunately, the Baylor defense doesn't present much more of a threat to him as they rank only #97 out of 120 on passer efficiency. Weeden should have a good day against Baylor. Kansas State next week might pose some problems for Brandon, but I doubt it. His next big test from a passing standpoint will be when he faces Oklahoma on December 3rd.
Tannehill held his own, will be interesting to see how Weeden tries to attack the Baylor D. RG3 gets a 2nd chance to attack another D and match throws, etc. I still see Tannehill climbing into the top 4 come draft day.
Sadly I'm more excited about seeing Luck vs Barkley, er Stanford vs USC, than the Phins game this week. Thanks for the write-up, will probably DVR that game and watch the USC game live. I haven't seen much of Weeden this year, and majority of what I've seen was against Texas so probably not his best outing to date.
LOL, no...probably not his best outing in that Texas game. If you really want a look at him just pop over to YouTube and search for Brandon Weeden videos. Somewhere in there you'll probably find a pair of "Universal Draft Presents" videos from his junior year. Trust me there's no shortage of throws there, especially this one video I made where for some reason they let me make it like 25 minutes long.
As perfect as Andrew Luck is, he's going to have his work cut out for him this week against USC. USC is not a great pass defense by any means but they've kept opponent QBs to an 85 passer rating and Luck's opponent's this year are allowing more along the lines of a 95 passer rating to QBs this year, excluding the damage done by Luck himself. The best pass defenses Luck has faced this year were San Jose State's and Washington's, and his numbers were fairly modest against both. Perfect of course, but still modest at 34 of 47 for 340 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. But USC has a good run defense. They rank #11 out of 120 in yards allowed per game, and #30 out of 120 in yards per carry with a 3.4 average. If they can stop the run and force Luck to pass the ball to win, he could find that he's gotten a bit used to these porous pass defenses he's generally faced this year and struggle a little bit...for stretches.
Here are the opponent defense passer ratings by quarterback: Ryan Lindley: 96.0 Andrew Luck: 94.7 Landry Jones: 89.6 Brandon Weeden: 89.3 Matt Barkley: 85.6 Robert Griffin: 84.6 Ryan Tannehill: 83.5 Based on that, Tannehill has faced the toughest pass defenses. It speaks pretty well for him that he's got a 99.3 passer rating against those defenses in Mike Sherman's offense. But Matt Barkley has a 109.4 passer rating against defenses that are allowing 85.6 passer ratings to non-Barkley QBs...and that's pretty good.
Ryan Lindley is just a big disappointment to me at this point. He's not even going to get a Senior Bowl invite. I know it's not all his fault but he's not handling his challenges that well.
I've been looking forward to this game, too, mainly for the reasons you mentioned. Clemson is on so I'll be DVR'ing Stanford-USC. lol. I looked at his height/weight listing earlier this year and was like, "6'2 220 MY ***.... not even with Chris Johnson's teeth!". Seeing this inflated stuff is annoying, especially when they're new recruits and miraculously grow 2 inches and gain 15 pounds on the day they sign their LOI. I just shake my head and laugh. I'm still slightly intrigued by RG3 though. For me it was how effortless his arm looks and the trust he has in it.
I'm a big fan of Kendall Wright. When I watch him I keep asking myself if he's a potential Greg Jennings.
I gave the video a spin (by the way, don't make them 25 minutes long or it's a pain in the arse to rewind a throw, mate) and there's a lot of things to like. However, his release looks somewhat low to me. It's tough to tell with the youtube quality and rewind issues but quite a lot of the throws had me thinking "batted down or intercepted in the NFL". He almost looks like a baseball pitcher on them. He's got the arm to make them work (sometimes a little too much arm, actually) but if there's one thing that stands out as a negative issue on this tape to me, than it's that I'd really like him to get to a higher release point.
I guess to each his own but I never had any inclination to question his release point and this is the first time I've seen anyone else question it. I don't think YouTube allows me to create 25 minute videos anymore anyway.
His release point could be a tad higher, but he's 6'4 and I haven't seen it be an issue, and I haven't seen a lower release point impair Philip Rivers, so I'm not worried about nitpicking at this time. IMO I see a distinction between QB & pitcher. The only thing I see is a very natural arm.
After all this with the thread and everything the game isn't on my cable feed. But I take it Weeden is looking a lot better than RG3, as I've been saying.
Its not even close really. RG3 is coming back to reality. I think hes a good prospect, but hes got a lot to work on to be a successful NFL QB.
Brantley might be a steal. He's doing pretty well against some pretty tough defenses. Let's see how he does against South Carolina in a couple of weeks. That and Florida State would tell me if he's worth a late round pick as a developmental guy.
Yeah I don't agree with that. Brantley has been underwhelming to me his whole career and has been the same today.
Big moment right here. Down 24-20 to Georgia in the fourth quarter. That's a scenario to turn around opinions.
Next time try: http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/...foot_aqui&partner=Google#channel/channel-all/ I just got in and the Stanford game isn't being shown here (Clemson v GT), so I'll be streaming the 2nd half from ESPN through that link
Have to sort of agree, what I watched was a WR framed Qb trying to play athletic Qb. He could hit the stuff in the NCAA wide open windows, but v NFL coverages, he did not have the ball placement he had to have to make the play work,
Time to raise this from the ashes. If it's true that Miami doesn't have as weak of a team as we previously thought (who knows where we finish but still the point stands, they're not true SFL) where does Brandon Weeden come into play? Without the age issues I think he's the third guy or the second depending on system. He's that good and I think he's going to straight through a top secondary in a bowl game. If I tell you he's going to have a ten year career with good protection and a good team around him (plus you have better rules protecting QBs today) what's he worth? Perhaps a great franchise player will have 15 seasons making him worth approximately 3/2s as much as Weeden. That's fair, let's look at that. Weeden at age 22 prospect I think could be top ten. The worst of those picks at reduced value becomes a pick around 20 in pick worth. I don't think it's out of the question to think Miami may trade down, way down to draft Weeden as their first guy. Maybe the running backs change, maybe they sign a WR, and an offensive linemen whatever the case is it's not out of the question that Weeden becomes a first rounder.
