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MiamiHerald : Ross determined for franchise QB, superstar HC in 2012

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by electrolyte, Oct 17, 2011.

  1. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So just because someone has never won a Super Bowl with two teams means it will never happen? I wouldn't shy away from Cowher or Gruden for Jeff Fisher just because Cowher and Gruden have won. That's just silly.

    Also Cowher was the one who pushed for better QB play once he failed to win with Neil O Donnell and Kordell Stewart. He saw what was holding him back and this is what lead to a power struggle between Cowher and then GM Tom Donahue and eventually got Donahue fired. Cowher was the one who wanted Roethlisberger. 11 playoff appearances, 5 AFC championship games, 2 sb appearances and 1 title in 15 years is something most coaches never get close to accomplishing.
     
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  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I don't know how much more substance you need. I've previously illustrated some of the GREATEST coaches in NFL history who have never won a Super Bowl with two different teams. If these LEGENDS were unable to do it, I don't know what makes you think Cowher or Gruden can.

    Don Shula; Lost with the Colts, won with the Dolphins
    Dick Vermeil: Lost with the Eagles, won with the Rams
    Reeves: Lost with the Broncos, won with the Falcons
    Parcells: Won with the Giants, lost with the Patriots
    Holmgren: Won with the Packers, lost with the Seahawks

    Is ANYONE here going to argue that somehow Cowher or Gruden are BETTER coaches than the above listed ones? Does Cowher or Gruden possess some magical pixie dust that would cause their coaching of a team to somehow exceed the coaching abilities of Shula, or Reeves or Parcells?

    In fact, it is more likely a former Super Bowl winning coach is less likely to succeed with another team.

    Vince Lombardi: Won the first two Super Bowls with the Green Bay Packers before moving on to coach the Washington Redskins to mediocrity.
    Hank Stram: Won the Super Bowl with the Kansas Chiefs before moving to New Orleans and inventing the infamous paperbag "Ain'ts" fans
    Don Mcafferty: Won the Super Bowl with the Baltimore Colts before moving to the Detroit Lions, posting a dissmal 6-7-1 record.
    Tom Flores: Won the Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Raiders before coaching the Seattle Seahawks for 3 disappointing seasons
    Mike Ditka: Won the Super Bowl with the Chicago Bears before moving to New Orleans and risked the entire draft on Ricky Williams...fail
    George Seifert: Won the Super Bowl with the 49'ers before becoming the head coach of the Carolina Panthers, achieving only 2nd place in the division.
    Jimmy Johnson: Won the Super Bowl twice with the Dallas Cowboys before coming to Miami and failing in the playoffs against Jacksonville 63-7
    Mike Shanahan: Won back to back Super Bowls in Denver before taking the reins in Washington and to date....epic fail

    There, MORE substance. Five that went to the dance twice and not able to win it as well as 8 Super Bowl winning coaches who failed to recreate the magic they had with their previous teams.
     
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  3. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Any kind of proof that these coaches did not win a second Superbowl because they had already won one before. All you have going for your "argument" is a fact that's quite literally meaningless unless you arbitrarily construct a causation out of a correlation. Which, by the way, is a textbook logical fallacy.

    In fact, the sample size indicates a very different conclusion. Namely that coaches who have already won a title pose a significantly higher than average chance of actually making it to the big game. Unless you want to argue that the Seahawks lost the Superbowl because of Mike Holmgren (a pretty absurd notion given that they were the better team and got blatantly screwed by the officials), then your list does not only fail to prove what you think it does; it proves quite the opposite entirely.
     
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  4. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    The dude has coached six NFL games. We might want to wait just a tad bit longer to call him a success story. In 2008, pretty much everyone in Miami called Tony Sparano a success. Today, pretty much everyone in Miami calls for his head.
     
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  5. AquaBlitz

    AquaBlitz Active Member

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    Well we need something to infuse this fan base. The stadiums been half empty for a while, Miami wants a winner. And this is the way to pack the house every single Sunday.

    Chuck Pagano*
     
  6. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fair enough. But early returns are good. And Harbaugh is doing it without Chad Pennington falling into his lap and with a young team in general.
     
  7. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    I don't know. A good rb, good wr core, a defense that has been good before. you can make the same argument for harbaugh.
     
  8. Shoes

    Shoes Junior Member

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    I just find it utterly incredible that you just make up some facts. Atlanta, really........
     
  9. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's 5-1 with alex Smith as his starting QB. It's impressive, let's not deny it.
     
  10. jpep13

    jpep13 Coach Of The Year Club Member

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  11. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    I never said he was or wasn't. Point is, in your quest to make sparano look "lucky", you are forgetting I could make the same argument for harbaugh.
     
  12. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Vendigo has already done a pretty good job explaining the problems with your logic, but I'll go into a little more detail -

    Your line of reasoning has no sound logic to support it. It's just a fallacy. A lot of foolish gamblers use the same fallacies to lose themselves thousands of dollars every year.

    i.e. - Team X is 14-0 against the spread at home when the temperature is between 50 and 70 degrees and a female singer sings the national anthem and the cheerleaders wear black leggings.

    And here's another example of a fallacy -

    i.e. - The last three times I ate a bologna sandwich for lunch it rained; therefore, if I eat a bologna sandwich for lunch today it will surely rain.

    You haven't demonstrated any sound logic for why a head coach cannot win a superbowl with more than 1 team, you've only stated the fallacy that "It's never happened before; therefore, it cannot ever happen."

    Given how hard it is to win a superbowl, and the ridiculously small sample sizes we are looking at, you can not reasonably conclude a head coach who has already won a superbowl has less chance to win again then a coach who hasn't won a superbowl. It's just not sound logic.
     
  13. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree, with you and Dark Knight, I think Ross is trying to do the right thing, I also feel being a rookie owner it must have been hard to make wholesale changes when Parcells had just quit.
    Since Ross got involved we saw a change on the Offense more aggressive and I believe not signing Orton was the best thing they've done.
    What triggered my comment is how easily people call Ross an idiot when the real idiot is now on ESPN telling us how it should be done.
    Ross is successful in business and knows what he needs to build a good organization.
     
  14. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    At least he is looking under the right rocks, look what Parcells has done for this team, he got lucky in 2008 Penny comes in with a 12 month expiry date, with the easiest schedule we've had and with a brain-fart scheme, the wildcat.
    The core team was never improved.
     
  15. PigMuffin

    PigMuffin New Member

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    Well said. You need causation to prove your point. His arguement has as much validity as if i had said that no super bowl winning coach whos initials were B.C. and who has two consonants next to each other in both their first and last name has ever won a superbowl after taking a hiatus over 2 years. Therefore Bill Cowher shouldnt be hired.

    It almost like the magic rock that keeps tigers away. I dont see any tigers here so the rock must be working.
     
  16. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    Cowher or Gruden will be our next HC next year, unless both do not want to coach for Ross. Ross wants a celeb HC, those are the only two available, and nothing else matters.

    Every owner in the NFL wants a "franchise QB" but, they have to be available. We may get Luck, may get Jones or, may get Barkley. There are no other options and, until they play, we can't be sure any are the guy we hope for.
     
  17. Third Man

    Third Man Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Don't dispute the fact that no coach named Marty or Jeff has ever won a Super Bowl.

    When you're finished ripping that obviously specious argument to shreds, you'll have destroyed your own, as well. Correlation does not equal causality, or have you really never taken a class in logic or philosophy before?
     
  18. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    ...brings in Mike Ditka and Kurt Warner.
     
  19. mbmonk

    mbmonk I have no clue

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    Will you autograph my baby?!
     
  20. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    Looks like we can forget Gruden. He just signed a 5 year extension with ESPN.
     
  21. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I have no problem arguing that Cowher was just as good a coach as Vermiel, Reeves, and Parcells, if not a better coach. Cowher had a record of 149-90 during his time with the Steelers. Until the drafting of Roethlisberger, Cowher never had a franchise QB to work with. His teams were forced to deal with QB's who were average at best, during the majority of Cowher's tenure with the Steelers. Yet Cowher was able to lead the Steelers to 11 winning seasons in the 15 years he was the HC of the Steelers.

    I think Vermiel was a good coach in the NFL. His record during his coaching years in the NFL was 120-109. I take nothing away from his coaching ability, since he did an excellent job with the Eagles and the Rams. His overall record of having winning teams in only 7 of the 15 years he coached in the NFL clearly shows that he was not nearly as effective throughout his career in the NFL as Cowher was with the Steelers. So I would consider Cowher a better coach than Vermiel.

    I have no problem stating that Cowher was clearly better than Reeves as an NFL head coach. Reeves was 190-165 as a head coach in the NFL. He also had one of the best QB's in the history of the NFL in, John Elway, for much of his time with the Broncos. The majority of his wins were with the Broncos, but he never won a Super Bowl with Elway as his starting QB. As far as his record as head coach of the Giants and Falcons. He was an average coach with these teams and his winning percentage with both these teams was below 500. I certainly consider Cowher a superior coach to Reeves. It should also be noted that Reeves DID NOT win a Super Bowl with the Falcons, as you state he did.

    While Parcells is considered by many people to have been an outstanding HC in the NFL. His overall record was 172-130 during his 19 years as an NFL head coach. It should be noted that he never won a Super Bowl or a conference championship game without Bill Belichick as his defensive coordinator. Without Belichick on his staff, Parcells was merely another .500 coach in the NFL. While I give him credit for hiring Belichick and other top tier assistant coaches. I don't see him as being a better overall head coach than Cowher. I would consider this coaching match up a tie.

    Holmgren was a highly effective head coach ,who's record was 161-111 in 17 years as an NFL head coach. He was fortunate to have Farve for all his years with the Packers. Of course he deserves a lot of the credit for the development of Farve as an NFL QB. He also did an excellent job as the head coach of the Seahawks. I would rate Holmgren right up there with Shula, as two of the greatest coaches of their generation. I certainly would not put Cowher above these two great coaches, but he certainly deserves to rank right up there with them, in regards to his effectiveness as an NFL head coach.

    I have no idea if after the death of his wife and the years he has been away from the sideline has decreased his coaching desire. All I know is that if he is available and he truly wants to coach again. He is by far the best NFL coaching candidate on the open market. If he has lost the desire to coach, which he once had. I have no doubt he will just stay in the broadcast booth in the future.
     
  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You know what? Whatever!!

    I've given you all the data and yet you all choose to ignore it. Hire a former Super Bowl winning coach and when we don't win a Super Bowl, I don't want to read any b1tching complaints about said coach...because you guys asked for it.

    I'll just sit back shake my head and yet again say, "Man I'm tired of being right all the time"
     
  23. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    As a statistician, it's like nails down a chalkboard to see you continually refer to your fallacy as "data."

    If we hire a former superbowl winning coach and he doesn't win a superbowl with the Dolphins, it will be because winning a superbowl is a hard thing for ANY coach, not because he already won a superbowl.
     
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  24. SeanP

    SeanP Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This.

    Just because there is a trend does not meant there is a correlation. Not to be rude, but that's kind of basic statistics. Correlation does not imply causation
     
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  25. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    It reminds me of an old German joke. There's this dude happily cruising along the Autobahn with 100 miles per hour when the radio warns of a wrong-way driver. He looks around and says, one? There's dozens!
     
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  26. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    [​IMG]
     
  27. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    How is cowher a good coach when he had lebeau and parcells isn't because he had bellichik. Two rings to one says parcells is twice as good as cowher
     
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  28. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    Not much difference between the two, other than the fact that Cowher seems willing to stay in one place longer. Both empasize size and power over skill and speed, IMO.
     
  29. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Dark Knight's logic couldn't be more wrong. In 1999, Phil Jackson became the first NBA coach to win championships with 2 different teams. Prior to 1999, no coach had ever won it all with two different teams. Pat Riley became the second coach to do it in 2006.

    Dark Knight, should the Lakers not have hired Phil Jackson?
     
  30. gunsmithx

    gunsmithx Active Member

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    or the heat Pat Riley?
     
  31. PigMuffin

    PigMuffin New Member

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    Wait a second!!! Germans tell jokes? Who would of known :D
     
  32. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    New blog from Armando gives further details on the Orton issue.


    Read the bolded portion again. Jeff Ireland was going to trade a 2nd round pick and pay $27 million for a guy he did not believe was a franchise QB. It took the intervention of Steven Ross, a non football guy, to stop this monstrosity from happening.

    Ireland needs to go, immediately
     
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  33. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    I agree. If this was Ireland's thought process, then it is beyond obvious he needs to go! I'm hoping this was the straw that broke the camel's back with Ireland.
     
  34. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    To me, it rather reads that someone else (possibly Brian Gaine) told Ross that this was a bad idea.
     
  35. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    A. Why do we take this as fact?

    B. How much does an average NFL starting QB make? Hasselbeck got $20M for three years. McNabb got $8M for one year. Kolb is getting >$10M/yr. I don't think those numbers are very high for Orton. If we want to re-sign Chad Henne it will likely cost near that amount. Any QB that has starting experience and a near .500 record is going to cost at least $5M per season.
     
  36. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well whoever that guy was might have a future. Ireland can take a hike. If that story is accurate, then Ireland is either dumb, desparate or insane. Not a guy I want running my team
     
  37. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    It also suggests that Ireland knew he needed to do something to save his ***. Ireland's not that dumb. He probably thought there was a shot the Dolphins could win 8 or 9 games with Orton, maybe enough to save his job. And THAT'S why you don't keep lame duck coaches and GM's around, because they don't give a **** what happens in the coming years. They only care about now.
     
  38. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    We don't know if Ireland was actually going to pull the trigger. The story - if we chose to believe it - only says what Ireland had hammered out with Orton's camp and what Denver was asking in compensation. It doesn't say that Ireland was really about to cough up that second round selection.
     
  39. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have to assume it's true since it was reported by a professional journalist. If other facts come out later that it was false or that Armando is some kind of serial liar then I'll re-evaluate my position.

    As to whether that's fair or not, a 2nd round pick, plus a 3 year commitment? Just seems incredibly excessive for a guy you are immediately going to try and replace. And if Chad Henne gets anywhere near $9 million from any NFL team then I will eat my hat.
     
  40. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, that's certainly a fair point. But I assume that Ireland brought it to ross for approval and was rejected. At elast that's what the article makes it seem like, and really, why would it be any other way? If Ireland wasn;t about to pull the trigger and commit nearly $27 million of ross's money why would he need Ross's involvement at all?
     

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