This is mostly just a continuation/reorganization of the thoughts I posted in my "Observations" thread in Club Level so forgive me if you've seen most of these thoughts before. Cleveland on Offense Cleveland is a short-oriented, nickel and dime, 15-play offense, very conservative Colt McCoy extremely decisive, ball comes out quickly, deals well with pressure, very short-oriented Effective IN the red zone, not necessarily effective getting INTO the red zone, fairly effective on 3rd down Peyton Hillis as good at fighting thru, grinding after contact as ever, but not as agile/explosive as last year Offensive line questionable at Guard spots Very screen-oriented team, whereas without Vontae Davis and Benny Sapp, Miami is vulnerable Miami's DLs and OLBs must focus MORE on discipline then pass rush, with respect to screens and containment If ILBs have to focus on those two things, big problem, will have hands full already w/ ground game and TEs/RBs Focus on pass rush only on big pass rushing downs, bring extra rushers and confuse OLs on who to block Don't let them keep the game close, they like to wear out defenses with ground game and we're wear out-able Mike Nolan must allow Sean Smith to follow Evan Moore when he comes on the field in the red zone Watch for gimmicks like double-screen, etc Must stay plastered to receivers while Colt breaks contain, Clemons would be a better play then Reshad, IMO Cam Wake needs to go outside on Oniel Cousins when he's at RT, use insider counters on Artis Hicks when he's in Cleveland on Defense Secondary is the strength of their defense, front seven kind of average Ahtyba Rubin is unblockable at times, reminds me of Kyle Williams for stretches Phil Taylor makes a great partner for him, huge, strong, the pair are a strength But, there's nobody behind them. They try and rotate in Schaffering and Paxson, they pay the price, they suck Leaves open to wearing down, HURRY-UP offense early could be effective, get them too tired to defend red zone LDE Jabaal Sheard can be run on, but run at him, don't let him get into a chase situation, he's very athletic Don't leave RDE Jayme Mitchell unblocked on back side of a run, athletic/disciplined enough to get to the ball D'Qwell Jackson vulnerable to Center getting out on him, could be another big game for Mike Pouncey If you get into too many passing situations, Sheard will probably beat Colombo, good outside rush, very athletic Passing game plan must be more conservative, take the underneath stuff to Fasano, Clay, Bush and Thomas If you must challenge the secondary, target Sheldon Brown, but beware because they have good safeties Move Brandon Marshall around to get him on Brown, letting him stay stuck to Joe Haden is a self-inflicted wound Slot CB Dimitri Patterson is good, great closing speed, if you're challenging him with Bess, DON'T BE LATE Can't emphasize enough Henne has to stay patient against secondary, corners are tight, safeties are smart Need a fast start, hurry it up, hit with pace, nickel and dime, run, make them tired before get in red zone, punch it in As for Special Teams...I don't have much advice. I just know that Josh Cribbs is a damn fine returner that should scare the crap out of you, but he doesn't seem to like the idea of returning the ball from deep in the end zone. On the other hand from what I've seen, they could be vulnerable to a good return or two and so it wouldn't surprise me if Clyde Gates finally had a decent kick return or two.
Here's a longer write-up of the Cleveland Offense...don't read it if you don't want to. Cleveland's Offense The offense will remind you in many ways of the old Dan Henning style offense, in that they focus on execution and non-negative plays to nickel and dime you down the field with the ground game, screens, and short dump-offs. Some of the play calling is as conservative as I've ever seen. They like the rollout, they like screens, and they'll use their Tight Ends and throw to the Running Backs and Full Back all over the middle. Colt McCoy is good at reading the defensive coverage and extremely decisive which means he gets rid of the ball very, very quickly. Too quickly, I'd say, but that's just me. Remember when various people used to brag about how Miami's offense has the makings of being a good offense because of how execution-oriented they were, how they'll end up with more runs + completed passes than you in a lot of games and this usually translates to wins? That's the Colts offense. Their drives will take 15 plays or more, but they're good enough executing that they can get away with it at times. When they're on, they are a good 3rd down team, or rather have the makings of a good 3rd down team. This is because as I said, they grind you up like a machine with easy completions on screen passes and dump-offs, which keep the sticks getting closer, and run the ball with Peyton Hillis who is always moving forward, always getting 2 or 3 more yards than solid contact shoudl have given him any right to, and so they get themselves a lot of makeable 3rd down situations. There are positives to this style of offense and negatives. We saw the negatives a year ago. When you keep having to rely on 15+ play drives to score, little hiccups throw the whole thing off track. And if you can't run the ball reliably at all then the whole thing could fall apart. The positive is that if you do create the chunk yards and are able to shorten up drives to where you're into the red zone a lot quicker, the machine-like qualities of your powerful, always-moving-forward offense actually give you the makings of a pretty decent red zone team. The Browns? Well, they played the Bengals and Colts so I suppose it's hard to really know, but I have them getting into the red zone 6 times and having scored 3 touchdowns and 3 field goals. Miami's offense has been in the red zone 10 times, with 4 touchdowns, 4 field goal attempts (two successful) and 2 turnovers (one on downs). So, out of their 6 red zone trips, they've scored 30 points, while we've scored 34 points in our 10 red zone trips. They are ranked 14th in 3rd down conversion, we're ranked 30th. These are things that result from our two different styles of offense. Their offensive line is spotty. Their Guards are unimpressive. Jason Pinkston and Shaun Lauvao will just look average, most of the time. They can get into space a little bit but not necessarily stick to anyone, and they're not going to really impress you too much in how they move people. However their Center Alex Mack is better. Joe Thomas is actually having some issues this year in pass pro not unlike our own Jake Long. Unfortunately, we don't present much of a challenge to him, as Jason Taylor will mostly be rushing over him. The Right Tackle spot for the Browns is enigmatic as with Tony Pashos hurt, they have been rotating Artis Hicks and Oniel Cousins. Artis Hicks impresses me at times with his great athleticism, and then other times you pinch your nose because his hand use was just awful on a play. Oniel Cousins' hand use is way better, but he is far less athletic and can be beaten on the outside. Cam Wake has to be cognizant of which guy he's going against. But at the same time, one would hope they would know their own weaknesses and give Hicks inside help when he's in the game and have backs chip Wake's outside shoulder when he's in the game. I don't think they should go with Tony Pashos even though he might be healthy and padre31 has pointed out that he's returned to practice. The very first offenisve tackle I ever saw Cameron Wake thoroughly abuse was Tony Pashos during a preseason game. I don't know that Pashos has gotten any better, but I know Cameron Wake has. Without Vontae Davis, who has been ruled OUT for this game, the Dolphins are vulnerable to the screan game. Unfortunately, that plays right into Clevaland's hands because they LOVE the screen. They don't just run your average screen plays, they'll design more interesting screens involving Peyton Hillis, Josh Cribbs and Ben Watson. One thing I would watch for is the double-screen (screens to both setups to both sides on the same play) where you think they might be screening to Hillis but they're really screening to Owen Marecic, whom they like a lot. They haven't showed that yet, to my knowledge, but I bet it's in the playbook. The problem isn't JUST that Vontae is off the field. It's also the fact they fired Benny Sapp, and Will Allen is banged up. Benny Sapp was a guy you could count on to blow up some screens. He did exactly that on the play where he caused that Jared Odrick interception. Vontae Davis is so physical and explosive, he fights through the blocks and gets to screens all the time. Sean Smith and Nolan Carroll are both weak to the screen, and Nate Jones only just got back here for cryin out loud. Now they're going to have to go out there and defend Josh Cribbs and Peyton Hillis on the screen? Aye. I think what the Dolphins are going to have to do in order to defend the screen is take the edge off their pass rush from the Defensive Linemen and Outside Linebackers. Forget pressure. Colt McCoy practically does your pass rushing job for you, he pressures himself to get the ball out of his hands so quickly. The DLs and OLBs need to stay extremely disciplined because of the dual-threat of the screen game, and Colt McCoy's ability to break contain and scramble around. If you're not on top of things, they'll get chunk yards off those plays, and then you're in trouble because you just made it way easier for that offense to punch it in the end zone by shortening the field. What I don't think you want is for the inside linebackers Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett to have to be worried about the screen game, and containment on McCoy. If they are, I think that could be a mistake. They will have their hands full trying to bring down Peyton Hillis, while simultaneously defending the Tight Ends and Running Backs in pass patterns. That's Colt McCoy's other bread and butter, throwing over the middle to those Tight Ends and Running Backs. Does that mean we get no pressure on Colt McCoy? Not necessarily. You blow up a screen play or two, those tend to be losses. You stuff the run, you create long 3rd down situations. Then you bring secondary up in blitzes and create confusion amongst their OLs, and you have a chance to create more losses of yards, possibly even a turnover, though unlikely because Colt is very safe with the football. You'll just have to wait until you get their offense into bad situations before you start to feast on them from a pass rush standpoint. Until those occasions, it's MORE important to stay plastered to their players in coverage, and disciplined on the screen and ground game. One last note. Their receivers aren't very good. Let's be honest here. Even with Vontae Davis out, these receivers do not pose much of a threat. Obviously that doesn't mean you can relax against them, though. When Colt McCoy breaks contain, and he will, you need to stay disciplined on the receivers. He USUALLY will opt for the shorter options when he's scrambling around, but that doesn't mean he can't hit those deeper guys if you leave them wide open. If Chris Clemons is available to play, I would prefer he be out there. I don't trust Reshad Jones to stay plastered on players while Colt McCoy is breaking contain. He's too much of a freelancer. In the mean time the one interesting thing these receivers will do to you is get Evan Moore matched up on the perimeter in a Wide Receiver position on someone, especially in the red zone. In these situations, I hope Miami has learned their lesson from last week when Vontae came out and Andre Johnson was allowed to match up on Nolan Carroll over and over again. You must find a way to get Sean Smith stuck on Evan Moore when he's out there, especially in the red zone. It's imperative. Nobody else should REALLY be a threat, although let's be honest our secondary is weakened so who knows. But if they get Evan Moore lined up Nolan Carroll...forget about it. On the ground, like I said, this is an offensive line that is a little weak at the Guard area, and because the passing game is so one-dimensional, there are a lot of run plays where you'd swear they're creating a lot of space for Peyton Hillis, but somehow, someone is free to blow him up. He'll still get his 3 yards or so, because he's Peyton Hillis. I'm a little worried about Mike Nolan's directive to hit him high and don't let him jump over you. Hillis was most definitely a leaper last year, but he's not been that I've seen so far this year. He seems less agile, more North-South, more of a pounder, and the big run he finally had against the Colts as I recall came when someone tried to hit him high and didn't make good enough contact and he just spun away and bam he's in for a long score. Nolan's directive is to keep your head up as you go low on him but I'm not sure I trust these players to take Nolan's fear of Hillis leaping over players and translate it into safer tackling. The pendulum could swing too far. They have to be wary of that. If they're disciplined with the tackling, the ground game should not be strong enough to truly TAKE OVER until the 4th quarter, if the Browns have been allowed to keep the game close. I think it's important to put score pressure on this team because they love to take those 3 or 4 yard runs early in the game and turn them into 6 or 7 yard runs later in the game and if the score is close late in the game don't be surprised if all the sudden their offense looks like an avalanche and is becoming impossible for us to stop, and our defense goes down in the flames of a 3rd straight appearance of conditioning/fading issues. Suffice it to say, film analysis confirms your conclusions about the Cleveland secondary versus front seven. The front seven is kind of ordinary, but it's a secondary-driven defense featuring really good players back there. The rankigs on #1 and #3/4 wide receivers was particularly interesting to me since from what I could tell, Joe Haden and Dimitri Patterson are two of the strong points of that secondary. It's not that Sheldon Brown is terrible, but he's probably the most targetable guy out there. On the other hand, the safeties are playing excellently right now, and if you try and challenge them deep or over the middle, you'd better be pin point with the ball because they can make you pay. Where you have to go with the passing game on this one is exactly where you said, working your running backs and tight ends against their linebackers over the middle. You need to nickel and dime them to death, get individual matchups with guys like Reggie Bush, Anthony Fasano and Charles Clay, and rely on them to win those matchups against the linebackers. This defense reminds me a lot of the defense Miami ran back in the day under Wannstedt. You identified a weakness in run defense. That's true, although it is a mixed weakness. There are times in the game when Ahtyba Rubin is just plain unblockable. He has stretches where he reminds me of Kyle Williams of the Bills, and how he could cominate on the defensive line. Phil Taylor is just a rookie, but an absolute load to handle up front, and he combines well with Rubin for now, although not as good a player. The problem is two-fold. For one thing, Jabaal Sheard can be had in the running game. You can attack him straight on and get away with it. For another, the combination of Taylor and Rubin, which I would insist is a strength for the Cleveland defense, has to be out on the field the entire game. There's no active rotation. When they try and put Schaffering and Paxson out there to give them a spell, the Browns usually pay the price, because those two are not near as good. So basically, you can tire out Rubin and Taylor, and that's when you'll start to hit bigger runs. In the mean time, D'Qwell Jackson is a guy that lets Centers get out on him and stick to him like glue, so this could be another big game for Pouncey in run blocking. But there was one inaccuracy in your "When Miami has the ball" section. Jabaal Sheard will line up over Marc Colombo, not Jake Long. That's where he will rush the passer from, and yes Marc Colombo could have trouble with him IF Miami gets into situations where the Browns defense can pin their ears back. He doesn't use his hands great yet, but he's got the athleticism to beat Colombo around the corner, and to out-athlete him on second and third moves, if Chad Henne holds onto the ball against their tight man coverage. Where I think we disagree a little is in the characterization of "When Cleveland has the ball". I don't think of their offense as like New England's offense but with worse pass protection. I think of it more like Miami's offense under Dan Henning, though there are some obvious differences. The key is in the timing. In Henning's offense the quarterback was asked to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Colt McCoy does that. He is ultra-decisive. Tom Brady on the other hand, he knows what he's doing out there, but allows the play to mature properly before releasing the ball, and he's been known to sit back there for even 6 or 7 seconds if his pass protection is holding up and he's having trouble finding an open target. I don't think the key on Colt McCoy will be pressure at all. In fact, if I were Miami's coaching staff, I would coach my DLs and OLBs to NOT focus so much on the pass rush. The Cleveland Browns are a screen offense. They will screen you to death with Josh Cribbs and Peyton Hillis, or even Ben Watson. I would watch out personally for a double-screen to Owen Marecic, whom they like a lot. With Vontae Davis out of the game, and Benny Sapp having been fired, Miami's perimeter and screen defense is vulnerable. They will take advantage of that all day long and if your pass rushers are too focused on getting to Colt McCoy, you'll be hurting. They'll get chunk plays on you without having really earned them. Those chunk plays are what you need to avoid. They're an offense that will focus on execution by throwing dink and dunk passes underneath on you, and then rely on Peyton Hillis' ability to always fall forward for extra yards. It's hard to get him for a loss or even a zero gain, though this year they have also had some trouble springing him for big gains because he doesn't look as agile as he was last year. Still, he's a load, and he has that knack for always being able to get 2 or 3 more yards out of a solid hit than you thought he should have. That and the screen plays and check downs are the engine that drives the offense. They string together 15 play drives to score. That's their weakness, it's tough to keep stringing that many plays together reliably, as Sparano found out from 2009 to 2010. But, in the red zone, it could also be their strength, because execution-oriented power offenses with RAC ability tend to actually produce fairly well from inside the red zone. Miami's red zone woes last year were a little overblown in that their biggest problem was they weren't even getting into the tight red area. That will be the same problem for the Browns...UNLESS you give up chunk plays on screens because you pinned your ears back trying to pass rush Colt McCoy...or you did the same and McCoy broke pocket on you and found someone uncovered. Don't focus on the pass rush. Colt McCoy gets rid of the ball so quickly, it's basically like he's pass rushing himself for you. Focus on being disciplined on the defensive line and outside linebackers. Do not force the ILBs to think constantly about the screen pass or containment on McCoy, because that is how they could open up the ground game and get bigger production hitting their TE and RB short options over the middle. Make the DLs and OLBs more responsible for that stuff. Their receivers, as you say, should not pose too much of a threat. But, they have to stay disciplined when Colt breaks contain. McCoy is more prone to trying to hit his short options off the scramble, but that doesn't mean he couldn't find a big deep option if you left him wide open. The Browns are a team that would like to turn those early 3-4 yard runs with Hillis into 6-7 yard runs later in the game. Miami's defense has faded from conditioning issues in two games now. They are susceptible to what the Browns would like to do. If you allow the score to remain close, you could find that they're coming on you like an avalanche at the end of the game, and you can't stop it. On the other hand, if you can put together good drives early in the game where you run a bunch of plays on the ground and nickel and diming them through the air, and you do it from a HURRY-UP pace...you have a real chance of wearing out Ahtyba Rubin and Phil Taylor early, which could help you execute well enough in the red zone to score touchdowns and put their offense in situations they don't like to be in. Turnover margin will be a key stat. The Browns should be favored to win the turnover battle. Their secondary victimizes QBs who aren't patient enough, and New Henne may not like the idea of reverting to Old Henne for this game. If he plays fast and loose, he'll throw interceptions. Meanwhile their offense takes so few chances it's hard to imagine getting turnovers out of them unless you manage to pop the ball loose from Hillis' hands.
Well, to me, they have to play a complete game, we are more talented then they are, simply put, make the plays you should make. -drops -missed tackles -Blown assignments -erratic ST performance Clean that up, we win 27-13, if not, things could get ugly.
what usually happens in games like this where its a must win for us, is that teams take advantage of our over aggressive nature because of the sense of urgency we have goin in, and they come out and misdirection us to death, and it becomes a dog fight..Need to stay disciplined in the beginning of the game..
CK, I do appreciate all the time and effort you put in to your analysis, and it was GREAT. I'm going to over-simplify mine by saying that the same players from last year, aside from Henne and Marshall, have to play at least as well as the same players from last year. I'll put up a thread later expanding on my analysis.
Key question: Can Ireland's "master race" draft choices block out the mind numbing and desperate blather that is Tony Sparano and focus on the game?
I do not expect us to be really agressive on D Deej, I think we see more 4-3, with JT playing the Tiger role,
The Dolphins must protect Henne and give him some time. Open holes for D. Thomas, like last week. Keep our kicker from making better tackles than Sean Smith. Defense, after two bye weeks, can you finally show up?
If Peyton Hillis plays, I think he's going to give us a lot of trouble. We owned him last year, but we're not the same defense anymore. Soft all around, and Vontae is out on top of that. Don't think it'll be pretty at all. BTW Ck, does anything seem off about Wake to you or is he just facing much more double teams now? And then I know Solder pretty much handled Wake himself, even if there were a couple blatant holds in there.
IF our $12 Million Dollar Man changes, and plays up to his contract, Hillis will run as well as the other Peyton from Indy. IF he plays as he has been, we could see Jim Brown revisited.
I fear any team that plays us with a good screen game. We have to be the worst team in existence at stopping the check down/designed screen. I still have nightmares of Ray Rice.
I think for this game it does Deej, but do not get locked into "base 4-3" think of it more as 4 Dl's with JT being either up or down making it a 4-3/3-4 on any given play and giving McCoy all sort of presnap looks. I think JT comes down with an Int in this one Deej, I think McCoy is going to try and hit something over the middle and throw it right to JT.
No worries. Its Friday nite I'm old and I'm not going out. I'll watch TV. That looks far more boring.
They better win, because if they don't, I hate to consider what I am going to be reading in threads next week. I think D. Thomas and Henne are the keys to this game. If they can move the chains and keep the defense fresh I think they have a good shot. I really believe the defense will get some pressure on McCoy this week.
