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Orton Trade Failure - Best for Miami

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by RevRick, Aug 2, 2011.

  1. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    The more I think about what happened with the search for quarterback competition, and it focusing on Kyle Orton, the more I begin to think that the failure of that trade to be consummated is the best thing that could have happened.

    Consider:
    A. If Orton would have come in, and had a typically average year, I doubt that the improvement would have been substantial enough to more than move us nearer the playoffs. Further, were the team to make the playoffs, I doubt even more that there would have been a deep run toward the goal of a Super Bowl. We would have been, more than likely, a more palatable brand of mediocre (10-6, and constantly on the playoff bubble, but never with enough 'oomph' to break through to the real goal of the season!)

    B. Absent Orton, we have several alternatives to the season.

    1. The one most expect is an absolutely abysmal season, perhaps even resulting in a top ten pick, which puts the team in a better position to draft the "First Round Franchise Quarterback" which a goodly number of posters seem to be certain will automatically (within two years or so) lead the team to the promised land. That is a possibility, of course.

    2. The next most probable scenario in most people's minds seems to be a continuation of the past mediocrity because, as it has been expressed, the problem entirely lies within the utter lack of talent for the current quarterback under center. (I feel it remains to be seen, but that shall be remedied with the passage of time.) Should that scenario arise, it could very well be that since a 2nd round pick, nor a third and fourth round pick squandered on obtaining a mediocre quarterback to continue the trend, there might be enough horse power in that draft for the team to move upward to pick the aformentioned "First Round Franchise Quarterback." Further, with the addition of some of the parts which seems to be the goal of free agency at this point, there will be at least a moderately better surrounding company around whatever quarterback takes the field.

    3. In what must to some to be a quantifiably less likely scenario, the current quarterback could show signs of improvement which indicate that "the Light has come on!" and lead the team to an improved season, with improved statistics overall and in critical situations. This could somewhat reduce the currently deafening cry that the current quarterback is the single weakest point on the team, but may still leave a number of people unconvinced that he is the "anointed one" to at least park his tookus in the seat of the Great Marino. Then the real decision will be whether to invest in another quarterback in the next draft, and how early in the draft to do so. That will be confounded by the fact that a better season leads to a later draft pick, which means any substantial improvement in the skill of the quarterback to be taken will lead to a more costly trade up, and the consequent forfeiture of other draft possibilities. This is the most dangerous outcome of the this season because no matter who leads the charge into the draft in the front office, the choices remain the same. Gamble with the current incumbent, or scrap enough picks/players together to reach the ability to draft the "First Round Franchise Quarterback." The obvious advantage is that in a real quarterback competition in the subsequent training camp, we would more than likely have a real number one and a viable number two quarterback.

    4. The obviously most unexpected outcome would be that the current quarterback has the type of season that Drew Brees had in his third year as starter - and lights the league up. Some will say that it is impossible. That, even though there is a body of evidence to indicate it, is no more than one of several possibilities. It is not less statistically likely that there will be a substantial improvement in game performance than an absolute collapse into abysmal performance (a'la Ray Lucas - remember him!) They probably occupy equal but opposite positions on the probability bell curve. If that were to happen (which I do not predict, but merely suggest is a possibility, no matter how remote it may appear from current data to date), then the team would be far ahead at the end of this season than it was at the end of last season, with the ability to use an entire draft to draft for best players than to try to fill needs, and could be immensely improved from 2010.

    Some of these outcomes will be obviously less well received than others. Most of the posters seem to lean toward the idea that B.1. and B.2. are the most likely possiblities for a two year starting returning quarterback. I tend to lean toward the more optimistic side, yet still urge patience. I am in the position to be able to do that without the cry of those who are clammering for an immediate Super Bowl contender because I have watched every failure since 1974 to return to that arena. I have learned to be somewhat more patient than I was when I was in my 20's. (Not THAT much more, since my wife usually refuses to watch Dolphins games with me because of the change in adjectives and inflection in my language!) I urge patience because from my perspective, the talent evaluation for the last three years has been far superior to that which was exhibited an any point since Bobby Beathard left the team. I have reached the conclusion that our biggest weakness may reside elsewhere than in the players or the General Manager. That may be resolved this season if the mediocrity continues, no matter how the quarterback plays.
     
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  2. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    Nice writeup Rev. I do think that Orton's marginal improvement and the expected improvement on defense, we would have given us a good chance to get a #6 seed for the playoffs, but likely a quick boot out of the first round.

    With Henne + improved defense + no Dan henning + Pouncey, I expect us to be a solid 9-7 this season. I do not expect us to be in a position to get a franchise QB in the 1st round, doesn't mean we can't improve it with someone of Joe-Flacco-caliber in the later first round. As much as we all want a franchise QB like Brees, Manning or Brady, it's likely not to happen.
     
  3. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I just don't understand the need for people to rationalize or marginalize improvement. Every year the goal of the team is to be better than they were the previous year. If Kyle Orton provides that and every past statistic, performance metric, eye test, scout's opinion, pundit's opinion, etc. would say he is, then why do we need to temper that expectation with "well, it would have been a marginal improvement, it wouldn't have won us a Super Bowl, etc.".

    Plus, I'm just completely miffed at the idea that people think Kyle Orton has completed plateaued and he has absolutely no room for improvement. Yet, he's shown improvement every year. Chad Henne can only get better with a different OC that utilizes his strengths, but Kyle Orton can only stay the same? The logic and reasoning is completely one-sided here--especially for a QB that is only 2 years older than Chad Henne.

    I would welcome the addition of Kyle Orton. I would welcome it because he is better than Chad Henne. And from all indications in early practice reports, Chad Henne isn't showing that he's running the playbook without error. However, if Kyle Orton can't be acquired before August 4th the same time all of the new additions are allowed to practice, then it changes things.

    As much as I believe Kyle Orton is a hands down better option at QB for the Dolphins now and in the future than Chad Henne. The longer he isn't here, the more it would hurt us to come in and take control and be able to run things at top speed. At that point, it would behoove the team to go into the season with Henne, because it's the best chance to win this year.

    By the way, the team winning this year has a TON of affect on people other than Sparano and Ireland. Will Reggie Bush be back on a team that doesn't win? Will Yeremiah Bell be back on a team that doesn't win? Will players like Paul Soliai want to stay in Miami if they're now rebuilding again? What about Karlos Dansby? Will he be asked to be traded? Will Brandon Marshall blow up and seek to leave now that's he's facing another QB? Does Brian Daboll make it with another HC?

    I mean there are serious ramifications here to players, fans, the organization, etc. This season IS VERY IMPORTANT. A 10-6 playoff team would go MILES for this fanbase and the players on this team.
     
  4. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    I think that's blowing it out of proportion. If we bring in a new coaching staff and new QB via a draft, I do not consider that rebuilding. We've built a very good defense that is pretty young and exciting. Except maybe tweaking the safety position, we're in pretty good shape for a new regime. We have several good pieces on offense, but obviously still a few holes. rebuilding is what we had to do when Cameron left. we had very little talent, our defense was still good, but getting pretty old.
     
  5. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Thats all very true. But our young talent needs to continue their development. There are circumstances in which that talent stops developing, or where players check-out. You're walking a thin line when it comes to the QB position. Its not about Orton, but the rest of the team needs to know that the front office has done their due diligence to put the most competitive team on the field.
     
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  6. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    4 days of training camp and we're already talking next year's draft/season? You oughta be ashamed of yourselves. Wouldn't you at least like to see a few games before you pull up your skirts for the rest of the league?
     
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  7. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    YOU may not consider it rebuilding, but will the players? You think Brandon Marshall will be comfortable with dealing with another new HC, possibly another new OC, another new QB for a team that hasn't won for two years and now has to deal with a young QB?

    If Mike Nolan doesn't get the job, you think he's going to want to say the DC?

    I mean it's a whole can of worms if the Dolphins aren't successful this season.
     
  8. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really hate the concept that the failure to make the team better in the short-term will allow us to have a better draft position in order to somehow acquire a long-term solution ("First Round Franchise Quarterback" ) to our problems. I hate it, I hate it, I hate it.

    However, it kinda makes sense.
     
  9. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't know who it's directed to, but nobody is talking about next season/draft. You've completely taken the replies out of context in this thread.

    I spoke about how this season is so important to the team and the players and thoughts about next season. Thus, Kyle Orton makes sense this year. Not having him before August 4th to practice with the entire 2011 team, means we should stick with Henne for this year.

    Please read the whole post to understand the context. Same for everyone else's here. I don't think any of them are hard to understand they are talking of the importance of this year and it's relevance to future motives by players.
     
  10. Dr. Mookie

    Dr. Mookie New Member

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    [HR][/HR] Look, I'm not in love with Henne and I think Orton is a pretty good quarterback, but I still think Henne could just as good, if not better than Orton given a little more time to develop. I was cursing Henne's name during last season, like every other Dolphins fan, but after the long off season, I realized that it was just his first full year as the starter. How many guys have actually had great first full years?
     
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  11. Pagan

    Pagan Metal & a Mustang

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    Another scenario:

    Orton lights it up in Denver, and I feel the same way I did watching Brees hold up the Lombardi trophy.
     
  12. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Orton is not holding up the Lombardi trophy anytime soon
     
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  13. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe that Orton has plateaued and can only stay the same. I believe that he can get worse too. I think the difference between Orton in Chicago and Orton in Denver is the system. Therefore, Orton in Miami can end up being anything between Chicago Orton and Denver Orton depending on the system we have here. And Henne in Miami was at least as good as Orton in Chicago. So I believe that Henne this year will be somewhere between Chicago Orton and Denver Orton. It would have been nice to have Orton here as you would have two roughly equivalent players so your chances of one being decent are doubled. But I don't believe that the chances of either one being a franchise QB are remotely good. And I don't think that doubling up our chances of being decent is worth giving up our chances of finding a franchise QB. My goal is not to be good enough to make the playoffs for a couple of years. My goal is to become a perennial contender again. I believe that a franchise QB gives us the best chance to achieve that. And that trading for Orton gets us further away from that goal, not closer.
     
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  14. Pagan

    Pagan Metal & a Mustang

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    Comprehension. It's a wonderful thing. I didn't say he would be. I said the scenario was he lights it up in Denver. I.E. plays really well while we have another mediocre season.
     
  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Then you have a very low threshold for pain.
     
  16. Pagan

    Pagan Metal & a Mustang

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    I've been a Dolphin fan since 1967. My threshold for pain is legend.
     
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  17. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    I say we sign Drexl to give Henne some cutthroat competition and get Marty to replace Vernon Carey.
     
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  18. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    So, if Bill Cowher comes in, with a top 5 defense (hopefully), two pro bowlers on our Oline (my scenario), I do not see it rebuilding at all, but our team taking the next step. Of course this is the glass-half-full scenario.
     
  19. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Great post.
     
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  20. Dr. Mookie

    Dr. Mookie New Member

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    or offer him some chinese food to see if he takes it.
     
  21. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Sorry, I could not disagree more with the OP.

    First, Orton has matured and does not make near the mistakes he made in Chicago. Second, he is a better QB than Henne and I don't think it's just the system. Third, Henne is very likely not going to bring us to the playoffs and it's patently obvious to the Dolphins that he is not otherwise they would not have been interested in Orton. I simply haven't seen anything that says Henne will make more consistently accurate throws and throw with confidence. I hope I'm dead wrong but I do not see it. Fourth, we will likely have another 6-10 to 9-7 season with Henne. Which is just too mediocre and will not give us a better position for a franchise QB - and there's very little guarantee that there will be one available at mid-round 1; certainly not any more than late round 1. Fifth and finally, Orton would be much more successful getting the ball to the new weapons and giving the Dolphins a fresh offense. And, with our defense (assuming the key parts stay healthy) I think we are a playoff potential team with Orton. We are not one without him.

    It was and will be a big mistake that they did not go harder after Orton - particularly contract-wise.
     
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  22. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    not over until the fat lady sings
    wouldn't surprise me in the least if we wind up with Kyle Orton on the roster
    a third & a re-write & its done
     
  23. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Dolphins could always get some guts and move up for one. Go big or go home. If the Panthers win 5 games or so, they could be ripe for a trade, they wont draft a QB most likely. There are others as well.
     
  24. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't really understand how NOT upgrading arguably our weakest position talent wise is a good thing. Getting Orton doesn't mean we can't draft a Qb next year if we feel that Orton isn't a franchise player. Going into the season praying that Henne turns into a good, consistent Qb or that Matt Moore becomes more than a backup is not a good thing. Horrible rationalizing by Phin fans here, if you don't like Orton thats one thing I guess but if we can improve and win more games by picking up Orton, I believe we would win more games, then its a horrible move to not get him. Unless the plan is to chuck the entire season and get the number one overall pick we aren't getting Luck or the best Qb in the next draft so I don't know why we wouldn't try to upgrade the position through a trade for a better Qb than Henne.
     
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  25. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Uhm, yeah, the Dolphins Franchise has become, perhaps, a bit to good at the "Failure" thing for my tastes/

    Don't outthink the room Rev Ric.
     
  26. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Next year is expected to be a very good QB draft. A move into the 12 or so may be enough to land one of those. You generally need your 1st and 2nd to get there. Orton reportedly would have cost a 2nd so if we traded for Orton it may very likely be the difference between getting one of those top QBs and not. It may actually take even more than that next year just b/c the salary cap has taken some of the excessive cost out of those top picks. As for Orton himself, most believe he is at best a slight upgrade over Henne. A slight upgrade isn't worth giving up a chance to get one of those top QBs.
     
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  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    May I ask:

    -how do you know we will be in position to draft in that range?
    -how do you know that the top 5 worst teams simply do not take the 3 top Qb prospects?
    -how do you know those prospects will pan out?

    One is quite willing to toss out an entire season, one surely knows the above to be factual, and certain to happen.
     
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  28. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't know where we'll end up, but I do know that when you don't have a 2nd round pick most years it precludes from trading up a signifiant amount. I don't know whom the top 5 worst teams will take, but historically the first 5 picks aren't all QBs. I don't know that the prospects will pan out, but most franchise QBs are drafted not guys you pick up after two other teams decide they are not a franchise QB. I also don't feel that going with Henne equals tossing out the season. I see the odds of us making the playoffs as about equal with either guy. I think you are greatly over rating Orton and ignoring the impact of the system on his numbers (and on Henne). Trading away a 2nd round pick for Orton probably has little or no impact on where we end up this year, but greatly impacts our ability to move up if necessary next year. I see it as a high risk, no reward move.
     
  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Wow, going with Henne does not mean we are tossing out the season, yet, your strategy is to draft one of the currently well thought of Qb prospects in 2012 and we will need the #2 pick to move up?

    Which would mean..playing Henne means tossing out the season.
     
  30. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    We still need a franchise QB whether we have Henne alone or Henne and Orton. Orton doesn't change our need, just the ability to address it.
     
  31. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    No, he absolutely addresses the need. You can't draft a guy and expect him to start week 1. You can't draft a guy and expect him to play his rookie year. Especially where there is already a team with as much talent as we have. You can't let one player hold 52 back. You have a responsibility to them.
     
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  32. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    So you never draft a QB?

    We'll never be a perennial contender until we draft a QB. Orton doesn't change that. IMO he doesn't even make us better than we are with Henne.
     
  33. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And to the fans, who pay money and expect the Franchise to do whatever it takes to field a winning team, this clinical approach nonsense is Loser Thinking and worse makes such massive assumptions it is mind boggling to contemplate.

    In some ways I admire the Jets, they simply do what they have to do in order to win, no excuses.
     
  34. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Again, is it so hard to assume that Kyle Orton can be a long-term solution for this team?

    Why is Chad Henne viewed as a better long-term investment than Kyle Orton? Especially when Orton has shown consistent improvement every year. Has quarterbacked his team to a division title. Plus, he's only two years older.
     
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  35. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Of course you draft a QB. But when you draft him, you don't just put him out there until he's shown enough to earn it. It probably won't be right away, but at some point he'll show you enough in practice to warrant starting over a guy like Orton. But you should never have a roster that doesn't have a QB that has proven success.
     
  36. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think the 2nd round pick was the issue for us, I thought it was the contract? I don't agree with basically rolling the dice on a season because next year's Qb class is supposed to be good, thats just silly. And trade ups are going to cost ALOT more than a 2nd round pick with the next rookie contracts. Getting a franchise caliber Qb prospect is going to cost multiple picks in multiple drafts since the contracts are salary cap friendly enough to roll the dice on talent. You might even see a team that took a Qb in the top 10 this year take another one in the top 10 if they aren't sure last years pick works out. This team has a really good defense and a lot of talent, getting a Qb that is better than Henne could very well put us in a position to win the division. Hoping Henne gets better might have us at 7 wins. I don't really see the argument to not upgrade the position if we have the chance. Orton has performed a lot better than Henne has. Orton has had games where he was dominant, Henne is still waiting for those games.
     
  37. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member


    Not sure if more information has come out , but Elway was quoted as saying they definitely did not ask for a second round pick. Whether they did or didn't I don't know , but it was attributed that way.
     
  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Actually 7 wins would assume that Henne didn't improve at all and that our defense drops another 19 interceptions and the refs blow another Pitt-type call. If we have even minimal improvement then we are a 8 or 9 win team. Orton basically gets us to the same spot. He does not give us any better chance to win the division. We would need a franchise QB to take that next step. And if trade ups cost a lot more then we shouldn't even be considering trading any picks. As for what the issue was, I heard different things from different sources. I don't care which it was. I'm just glad we didn't give up the picks.
     
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  39. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Orton was Henne until he got into a decent passing system. Is it so hard to see that the system is what was the difference?
     
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  40. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe that Orton has plateaued and can only stay the same. I believe that he can get worse too. I think the difference between Orton in Chicago and Orton in Denver is the system. Therefore, Orton in Miami can end up being anything between Chicago Orton and Denver Orton depending on the system we have here. And Henne in Miami was at least as good as Orton in Chicago. So I believe that Henne this year will be somewhere between Chicago Orton and Denver Orton. It would have been nice to have Orton here as you would have two roughly equivalent players so your chances of one being decent are doubled. But I don't believe that the chances of either one being a franchise QB are remotely good. And I don't think that doubling up our chances of being decent is worth giving up our chances of finding a franchise QB. My goal is not to be good enough to make the playoffs for a couple of years. My goal is to become a perennial contender again. I believe that a franchise QB gives us the best chance to achieve that. And that trading for Orton gets us further away from that goal, not closer.

    That was my response earlier. All Orton has proven is that he could do better in a better system. Before that he proved he could be Henne or worse. IMO you put them in the same system and Henne is just as good or better.
     
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