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QB perception isn't always what it seems. Supporting stats included.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, Jul 30, 2011.

  1. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    With TP Vendigo meant ThePhins, not Todd. Sadly, you did a great job of personally attacking him as a board member and as a poster (when was the last time someone started a football related thread? Im aghast that someone would level that at another board member), bringing everything full circle. I'll join in: Can we have the old thephins.com back please?
     
  2. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    MrClean, I think TP stood for ThePhins, not ToddPhins.

    But I can't be sure. Everything in confusing at this point of the discusssion. lol.
     
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  3. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    So what you're saying is the following QB scenario would have no excuse for the following stats b/c he should be able to play well in the situation given to him (no matter what the circumstances)?

    <5 straight games>
    1-4 Record
    13 INTs
    QB Ratings of 67, 69, 59, 75, 96.

    ?????????
     
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  4. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    For the record, I'm gonna try to stop making so many assumptions about what will and won't be any good this year, especially regarding our QBs.

    I've been as guilty as anyone of low-grade, emotional posting.

    Friends don't let friends drink and post.
     
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  5. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    By the way, jdang and todd are both right, but neither one can see it. Kinda like the Dems and Repubs.
     
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  6. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    Any franchise QB not named "Dan Marino" knows when to audible from pass to run and vice-versa.

    I give Henne this year to prove himself.
     
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    :smackhead:

    ...


    :whistling:
     
  8. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Henning did a lot of good things in the league when he was younger. I don't consider his work with Delhomme as his defining moment as a OC. He got Delhomme when Jake was in his prime. The time after they were together, Jake wasn't physically the same QB anymore. You can credit Henning for all of Jake's success and there is really no way to refute it, or on the other hand know for sure if Henning deserves the lion's share of the credit. Delhomme could have done as well playing under another OC in another city. The next two years after Henning left Carolina, Jake played pretty well with Jeff Davidson as his OC. That Jake, still in possession of most of his physical skills, was successful under Davidson, post Henning, doesn't contribute to casting a feat of genius aura over Henning IMO.
    Jake's decline from 2009 on could have well been lingering effects from the elbow injury that cost him 13 games in 2007 as much as anything. Perhaps he lost a few miles an hour off his fastball.

    The "wheels coming off" the offense in 2010, was primarily the ground game. Are we to point most of the blame for the decline in the ground game at Henne? Didn't he open the holes with his run blocking well enough or not run the ball with the same quickness and power as before?
     
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  9. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Good point to bring up. You're totally right. This is where you look at what kind of offense the teams employ.

    <speaking aloud here> If it's a team that is well known to be built to run the ball or establish the run (like Miami, Atlanta, Baltimore, TB, or NY), then it in fact is quite telling about a QB when his ground game isn't working well and he's forced to pull the slack. Because of NY, Atlanta, Balt, KC, and TB's strong ground game, their QBs were rarely asked to carry the burden of the offense.

    During these rarer times, their QBs did not yet look ready to carry that burden. From what I saw, Henne was very much the same. When our ground game was effective and defenses were forced to respect it, Henne was able to play well; unfortunately those times were few and far between. When we didn't run well Henne, too, showed he wasn't ready to carry the burden. He'd flash for a quarter here or a game there, but nothing of consistency, which was similar to what I saw in those other guys. IMO Henne looked much worse than he really was comparatively b/c he was put in those difficult situations more often than the other young QBs. If Henne were in TB and Freeman were in Miami, we would've seen noticeable difference in each of their performances.

    Bottom line, when their ground games weren't effective, these guys struggled more times than not.
    When their ground games were working, all of these guys flashed signs of brilliance. There were times when Ryan looked like he was on the verge of turning the corner into a legit franchise QB, and I can honestly tell you that these times did not outshine some of Henne's best performances.

    I saw some things from Ryan that I wish Henne would do more often....... but I also saw some things from Henne that I think Ryan wishes he were capable of (and that's no BS). Ryan's decision making seemed better, but Henne's seems like it's improved to where the gap is closing. Ryan made his share of judgmental errors that would have Miami fans calling for his head at times--- throwing the ball directly into the hands of coverage numerous times (although Matt got away with a lot of drops. Ironic that the stronger armed QB is the one who gets away with less). His decision making might have been slightly better, but Henne IMO displayed a more talented arm (and I don't just mean stronger). The real difference I saw was Ryan seemed to have better command of the offense and a greater understanding of what was going on, which are things that I believe Henne can improve upon through repetition, watching film, and taking the leadership steps he took this offseason.
     
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  10. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Yeah, you're right, he could have meant that. It was in Todd's thread though, hence my believing TP = ToddsPhins.
    I do know Todd started a lot of good threads before his hiatus, like he is trying to do now. And he is generally just sniped and attacked by people who never start anything constructive for a thread topic. Not that he needs me to be, but maybe I'm too quick to want to jump in and defend him.
     
  11. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I could think of a lot better analogies, but better not to go there. It gets the mods up in arms like nothing else. ;)
     
  12. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    You call that an attack? I never verbally abused him, I asked a basic question. If I ask you, when was the last time you started a thread on a football related topic, that is attacking you?
    Excuse me for thinking so, but I consider those who start good football related threads on a regular basis, such as CK, Todd, DJ, Padre, et al, to be the backbone of this or any forum.
     
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  13. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I said the bold comments b/c there actually are fans who verbally attack/chastise Henne in a pretty crappy way..... in ways that, at times, make me feel ashamed to be a Fins fan. It's one thing to be critical, but it's another to be an obnoxious, know-it-all fan who talks trash about your own team---- the kind of trash that, if were spoken about us by Jets fans, would having us wanting to beat the snot out of them.

    Some of these people (not necessarily speaking of any fans on this site) obviously do not have the greatest understanding of football. I might not be the smartest guy, but I know I have a better understanding of how the game works (and what affects it) over the average fan who loves the Dolphins but has never played the game in his life, studied it, etc. So when I speak of fans, I'm referring to a percentage of the entire fan base and not making direct personal attacks at members here.
     
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  14. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    You just criticized a poster for not starting enough threads. That's ridiculous. And since you consider thread starting to be the basis of good posting, you telling someone that they don't contribute enough to this forum is indeed a personal attack.
     
  15. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    by the way, this QB is Peyton Manning. what's his excuse for not making the best of any situation when he was faced with an injured offense etc?
     
  16. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    oh contraire. I can totally see that I'm right.















    :tongue2:
     
  17. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    No, TP officially stands for ToddsPhins. Not sure the confusion here; I'm more important therefore I get the nod. :whistling:
     
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  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    by all means, defend away. I get banned when I do it. :lol:
     
  19. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Thank you. There are always some fans who disagree with a poster, especially regarding such a controversial topic.... but w/o these threads/posts we'd have less to talk about, right.
     
  20. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I asked when was the last time, I didn't say he was a bad person for not doing so, if indeed he hasn't. If you don't like what I said, may I suggest putting me on ignore, or report me.
     
  21. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    That's not at all what he's saying. He's saying that w/o threads (including ones that people spend a good bit of time creating) there is NO forum; ergo thread starters can be viewed as the backbone of a forum (which is by no means interpreted as Padre, CK, Deej, myself, etc being better than anyone). He's also saying that people who don't spend hours of their time creating threads for debate (for the good of the site) should show a little more tact & reserve by not attacking opening posters.

    MC didn't say anything about thread starters being the basis for good posting (good posting is the basis for good posting), but nice attempt to twist it around so you can make a debate about it. :wink2:

    Maybe you're acting defensively b/c you, yourself, rarely start threads & open yourself to its criticism. ???
     
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  22. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You've got a guy who is a proven HOF type, top 3 all time, and you compare him to Henne. Manning is in a funk, Henne has never been good enough to be in a funk.

    See, I have no problem with Henne. He's our guy apparently, so he's our guy. He gets another year. I hope he does well lord knows I hope he does.

    I just have a problem when someone, usually you (no offense intended :D) comes along, groups Henne with a bunch of other people who by almost every measure are better, find that one stat where they aren't better, and then declare that they are all the same.

    Ryan. Winner, great stats.
    Freeman. Winner. Great stats.
    Flacco. Winner. Great stats.
    Sanchez. Winner. Not great stats (good in playoffs though).
    Cassel. Winner. Recently good stats (and decent enough in NE).

    Henne. Not a winner. Not great stats.

    I've thrown out how your criteria makes Brady look like a player not capable of carrying his team. You counter that Brady, Manning et. al heavily rely on their passing game to set up the offense. That is a recent development. New England won their super bowls off the backs of the ... err ... backs with Smith then Corey Dillon having a monster season.

    Then again you point out how Peyton had a bad stretch. The stat I put out for Henne was for the whole season. Manning had a very funky middle season, but finished strong and still had what would be an excellent season in Miami. 91 qbr, 4700 yards, 33/17 Int. Subpar for him, great for us if it was for us.

    At the end of the day, all these QBs. Their teams all won, they all played well. They helped their teams. Henne has hurt us. No amount of stat digging and back testing will change these facts. Their teams won. Their qb played well. We can't say that for either of those for our team.

    Now, I hope that changes this year. So far we don't have a new QB. Henne is our guy for now. I want nothing more than to see him have a great year. But in no way will I fool myself into believing that he is on par with the rest of these QBs mentioned. Except maybe Sanchez. Hell he had a better year too.
     
  23. cobrajet

    cobrajet Mr. Ross - sell the team!

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    Well done, Todd (as always).

     
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  24. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    Does that take away from the fact that they were a damn good team?
     
  25. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd rather see the ypc correlation if your trying statistically show how effective the running game is. As a couple of previous posters pointed out, teams with a lead tend to run alot more. Of course I don't want to see it enough to actually look up the stats myself...





    Sent from my SGH-T959V using Tapatalk
     
  26. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    This is all fine and dandy and easy to see when your team plays well as a team, is coached well, is playcalled well, has great success running the ball, and for the most part plays good defense with solid special team's too. If you can say the same thing about Henne, then I'll drop the entire debate and concede. If you can say you honestly believe that the factors I just mentioned have no bearing on a young QB who's still learning the game, then I'll also concede.


    Ryan: winning team, strong running game, #1 ranked special teams, 22nd ranked strength of schedule, 5th ranked scoring D, 10th ranked starting field position, great coaching, great playcalling.

    Flacco: winning team, solid running game, #3 ranked special teams, 3rd ranked scoring D, great coaching, solid playcalling, 17th ranked field position.

    Freeman: winning team, great running game (4.6 YPC), 25th ranked strength of schedule, 9th ranked scoring D, solid coaching & playcalling.

    Sanchez: winning team, great running game, #4 ranked special teams, 6th ranked scoring D, 2nd ranked field position, solid coaching.

    Cassel: winning team, #1 ground game, 28th ranked strength of schedule, 11th ranked scoring D, 9th ranked field position. solid coaching, weak division.

    (How was 2009 Cassel when his team had the 29th ranked scoring D, 10th ranked strength of schedule, 11th ranked ground game, and 24th ranked field position?
    Wow, did he really finish with a 69 QBR, 16 TDs, 16 INTs, 55% completion, and 5.9 avg in his 2nd year starting in the NFL despite looking good his 1st year?


    Henne: team that fell apart, injury plagued team, sprained knee, 30th ranked ground game (also averaged 3.7 YPC), poor coaching, horrible playcalling, 27th ranked special teams, 3rd toughest strength of schedule, 14th ranked scoring D, 29th ranked defensive turnovers, 29th ranked field position.

    Sorry, but I don't buy the singular argument that those teams are winning b/c their QB's are winners while Henne is the opposite.

    If you choose to ignore that outside circumstances affect a young QB's success (especially when on a team that likes to run the ball), then we might as well end the debate now. lol.
     
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  27. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Respectfully, you don't need stats to know that Atlanta, Baltimore, NY, TB, and KC like to run the ball and want to run the ball. When they win and average 120+ yards rushing in those wins, it pretty much means they were successful establishing the run...... and when you watch the film of those teams, it only further backs it up.

    When they didn't run well, it usually meant they were ineffective at establishing the run.

    YPC is also misleading. Case in point. Miami averaged 3.7 YPC on the season; Atlanta averaged 3.8. However, game-wise they couldn't seem more opposite. Miami struggled all season to gain yards on 1st down while picking up some chunk yardage when a game was already over (Raiders).
    Atlanta ran the ball well on first down for much of the season.

    Miami had few "impact yards" rushing. (this along with poor 1st down performance seemed to handcuff Henne.)
    Atlanta had a lot of "impact yards"---> 1st downs & big plays when they needed it which, along with running well on 1st down, seemed to really help Ryan.
     
  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You make very good arguments about why those teams won. You have made no good arguments about why Henne played bad.

    As someone said earlier, another Henne thread that talk about everyone but Henne. Nothing explains away a negative TD to INT ratio.

    That's good. Because I don't think anyone has made those arguments. But that's good to know.

    Who has ignored it?

    Yes all of those outside circumstances allowed these young QB's to throw for oustanding numbers while Woe is me Henne is stuck on a team so bad he has crappy numbers. Seeing as how ATL was in the cellar as we were in 2008, their FO has done a wonderful job and ours hasn't. Since ours picked Henne ... well ...

    I am talking about two things. winning teams (notice that word I keep using? Team?). good play from their QB. We didn't have a winning team, nor consistent good play from our QB. Our QB position is the laughing stock of the league and we're here debating how equal he is to some of the upper tier QBs. Hell you'd have a better argument with Ryan Fitzpatrick being as good as those guys
     
  29. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Just curious, not intending to sidetrack your discussion with Todd or anything...if the Jets had Henne and we had Sanchez, no other changes, do you think they'd be the laughing stock of the league at QB, or would that distinction stay with us having Sanchez?
     
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  30. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    [​IMG]
     
  31. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I've preached this all along, since the day the music died (Marino Retired)...It can't be just an elite qb, it has to be all the parts falling in line too. Most importantly the OL, something we haven't seen and consistency in since.....I can't remember how long ago it was....
     
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  32. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Your taking a single per game stat and using it to represent the effectiveness of the running game, I was saying that a better indication of the effectiveness of a running game is YPC. I wasn't commenting on whether those teams ran a lot. When teams are winning they tend to run more. I was not attacking your conclusion, (that effective running helps QB play) just questioning if your method of analysis could be better.

    I decided to compare Atl and Miami to check this, and I found something interesting.

    When Atl won Turner averaged 4.3 ypc, when they lost he averaged 2.6, with 21.7 carries a win and 17 carriers a loss.

    When Miami won, Ronnie averaged 3.7 ypc, and when they lost he averaged 3.6 ypc, with an average of 16 carries per win, but only 9 carries per loss. With Ricky it was an average of 4.3 ypc per win, and 4.0 ypc per loss, with 13 carries per win and 7 per loss.

    Basically, if Turner ran well Atl tended to win, but Miami ran with about the same effectiveness from RB and RW win or lose, the only correlation was the number of attempts. My conclusion is that we didn’t play like a running team last year though we were supposedly built to be one.
     
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  33. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Actually the system does explain the TD/INT problem. When I reviewed last year's games I found that about half of the INTs were b/c Henne was doing exactly what he was told to do. If Henne was the exact same player but had thrown only 10-12 INTs in a better system then many of the same critics would be supporting him. He would still be the same level of player though.
     
  34. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    exactly. I don't really have a problem with his INTs b/c the number is somewhat misleading.
    We all know that opposing defenses led the league in fewest amount of dropped INTs against Chad, and we also know that opposing defense could key in on him a little easier b/c of the constant, predictable 5 step drops and his inability to truly check off plays.
    After watching Atlanta & us side by side, I know for certainty the Falcons lucked out numerous times by defenders dropping INT opportunities. (those don't show up in Ryan's stat column).
    Regarding the ball that Henne mistakenly threw to Ninkovich that fans were furious about, Ryan had a handful of similar passes that where flat out dropped. Ryan had as many poorly thrown passes, but again, the ones off-target were dropped more often.
    I also didn't see passes bouncing off Falcon receivers into defender's waiting mitts.
    And I didn't see INTs occurring b/c Falcon receivers were falling down.
    What I did see----- was Falcon WRs, TEs, and RBs breaking a heck of a lot more big plays that greatly aided their success.

    I was actually more impressed with Henne's accuracy, placement, and velocity in short to intermediate passes; meanwhile throws by Ryan downfield into tight coverage seemed to always be snared by Roddy White (dont get me wrong--- he did drop a few beautiful passes into areas where only his man could get it).

    For a while fans complained about Chad's ball placement (saying it's terrible and so forth), and I couldn't understand the criticism. Then I watch Matt Ryan and think to myself, If Henne has poor ball placement then Falcon fans should be furious over Ryan's.
     
  35. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    I know right?! When have Democrats ever been right....or Republicans for that matter.
     
  36. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Irvin has an IQ 2 points lower than a stick.
     
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  37. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    LOL. When Michael went out into the world, his father used the same sh!t from shineola comparison before letting him leave, same as Navin Johnson's father used in The Jerk.
     

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