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Fins may set market for Reggie Bush...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shaunm000, Jul 13, 2011.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I believe this to be an exaggeration of sorts, white was a mistake, but that's about it for personnel.

    Were not running an inordinate amount of wildcat, were just running it at the wrong time.

    A play is a play, its all just football man.
     
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Those are good points..I do think that his skillset is missing in this offense for sure, but because of the severe lack of depth, We may add more of a complete back to the equation like Bradshaw or Mike Bush..I think an aquisition of Bush's skillset depends on what they think of Kory Sheets, but it really could go either way, if they think that Sheets is sh$#, then we need a reggie Bush or a Sproles Skillset..A player that can take the screen pass to the house, weave in and out of traffic, this may have more importance than a Daniel Thomas counterpart.
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    One of the biggest needs on this football team is an explosive return man, our offense having the worst starting field position in the league kept us from winning ballgames.

    I really don't know if that skillset is in Mr. Gates skillset, I have heard Coach and Irish comment that they were excited about that aspect of the game..maybe they have somefilm on him that we don't....All I have to say is he better otherwise, Sproles or Bush should become more of a priority, we cannot let that aspect of the team continue to be as bad as it has.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    White was a 2nd round pick, and he was picked purely for the Wildcat.

    Thanks for bringing his example up because that accentuates my point brilliantly.
     
  5. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Isn't Lance Moore a FA as well? Every time Bush has been injured, Moore has stepped in and replaced his production. Would probably cost a lot less too.
     
  6. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's why NE drafted him!! :wink2:
     
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  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yes he is and I love that dude Stringer, but where are we gonna put him.?..If that cat doesn't get resigned by his own team then their GM has weakness in his game.
     
  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    So now we're "setting the market" (i.e. paying a lot of money) for a guy because of his return value? Have we learned nothing from Cam Cameron?

    Here's the reality on kick and punt returns:

    They're dying.

    Literally. Kicking and punting in the NFL was never really a big deal back in the day. You pulled a soccer style kicker away from soccer, gave him a few sheckles and had him kick a football instead. That's not the case anymore. It's economics at its finest. You can make a hell of a lot of money being the most unsung player on a football team and so you have more talent coming in and trying it out, getting better and better at it, more specialized. Punters today are better than punters were 10 years and 20 years ago. They get good hang time, good directional punting, etc. Kickers are also better.

    You can see these trends if you look at the long term (20 year) data off the NFL website. In kickoff returns, touchbacks were on the rise, and then they moved the kickoff tee from the 35 to the 30 yard line. Touchbacks fell off a cliff. But then what did they do? They steadily rose, year by year. Then the NFL introduced the K-Ball. Again, touchbacks fell off a cliff. But then what did they do? They steadily rose, year by year. Now, the NFL has gone the opposite direction in rule changes. They've moved the tee BACK to the 35 yard line, at a time when touchback percentages were already at an all time high. That's right, in 20 years of data, I don't believe touchback percentage was EVER higher than it was in 2009...until 2010 when it was even higher. So now you move the tee back to the 35 yard line when the kicking talent has gotten where it's gotten. What do you think is going to happen? Touchbacks. A lot of touchbacks. Probably half of all kicks will end in touchbacks, minimizing kick returner value more than ever in the history of the game. And you may think, oh well the NFL won't stand for this! They'll change the rules back! But, will they? They changed the rules for reason. They're convinced that kickoff returns are the most unsafe aspect of the game today, and the owners are trying to make the game safer. They can do that by minimizing kickoff returns...and it just so happens, this minimizes the value of kick returnERS. Hell, they had a serious proposal on the table from owners to do away with kickoffs altogether. One owner said that the only teams that voted against the current rule change were ones that happened to have at the moment good kick returners (doubtless Al Davis among them, because they're minimizing Jacoby Ford's value).

    What about punts? Well, thankfully there've been no rule changes in that respect. But I also studied the percentage of fair catches over the history of the league, and so I can tell you that fair catch percentage is also at an all time high. A good punter can render a good punt returner useless with directional and high punting, and punters are getting more talented.
     
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  9. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    To be fair, isn't this really the same thing we've seen New England move toward offensively?
     
  10. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And while we argue about returners our two rostered QB's are Chad Henne and Tom Brandstater. God help us.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You mean with Danny Woodhead, whom they acquired for practically nothing?
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    LOL. True.

    But I'm trying not to go there. Reggie Bush isn't a bad idea because we should remain paralyzed at all personnel positions until we have a QB. Reggie Bush is a bad idea in his own right.
     
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  13. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Yes. But I was really addressing your point of us potentially focusing on too many slot-types.

    I really want no part of Reggie Bush's salary.
     
  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I agree that it is an exaggeration to call a return specialist a "need" simply b/c the impact is likely to be so marginal. Increased touchbacks and fair catches will make a play that is already infrequent (returns) even less relevant. As it stands the best KR in the league will get you three TDs in a season. If you increase the number of touchbacks then you might not even get that. The last time KOs were at the 35 yard line, 1993, there were 4 KR for TDs all season and the number of 40 yard returns was 50% less than last year's number. If kickers are really getting better than touchbacks could really skyrocket and KO TDs could be just a memory. IIRC at least half the kickers are already averaging 67 yards on their kicks. That would mean that most kicks will be fielded at least two yards deep in the endzone with many deeper than that.

    Kickoff returns in 2010 vs. 1993
    Season 40+-yard ret TDs TBs
    2010 113 23 416
    1993 57 4 520

    Also IMO hidden yardage was already far more dependent on the offense/defense exchange than it was on PRs but as the number of fair catches increases than the return portion will be almost a non-factor in any hidden yardage calculation.
     
  15. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's some really thin proof. You do not need a special skillset to run the Wildcat. Its completely typical runningback skills. The trigger man favors a patient back effective between the tackles, but that's an absolutely generic positive trait. The jet sweep back needs east west skills. That's not an extraordinary skillset. That's reasonable variation in your skillset that are totally desireable in any roster circumstance.

    Thomas' experience in the runningback is a positive, but suggesting they drafted him because of that is what you want to think, not what you can support.
     
  16. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    This. This. and more of this...godamn this team is in for it, if they cater to the Wildcat...Miami will not see it's full potential until they rid themselves of it totally or use it like once a month like every other good team does trying to catch some team off guard as a fluke....

    Miami needs to stop trying to generate yardage behind the LOS or right at it, and start to utilize the spread, maximize the width of the field and feed the ball to Marshall in advantagous circumstances...sprinkle in some guard pulling techinque runs, and the straight power I, and effing go at it.....the rules of the NFL set this up nicely....

    off course this all hinges on the quaterback play.....:pity: very big year for Mr. Henne....come on Chad...
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Well stated.
     
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  18. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Bye bye, Deangelo

    -Denver Post

    If we cant Deangelo, we're going to have to outbid DEN. I say forget about it.
     
  19. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    What I don't get about that report is how Josh McDaniels' feelings on Knowshon Moreno are relevant given that Josh McDaniels was kicked to the curb and they have a new coaching staff in place? I mean, I realize there's a lot of reason to think John Fox would want to bring DeAngelo over, I'm just saying that a source revealing Josh McDaniels' feelings on Knowshon is about as relevant to John Fox's feelings on him as, let's say, a report on Josh McDaniels' feelings on Peyton Hillis as it relates to how the Cleveland Browns feel about him.
     
  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    your still exaggerating CK to make your point.
     
  21. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    And about as much as your feelings on Woody's feelings on Josh's feelings..

    No, I think it's relevant bc he's citing a poor work ethic. Moreno's knock was always he couldn't stay healthy. Now if people believe and hear otherwise, then you'd have to think that they're looking for a replacement much more than a compliment.
     
  22. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Don't forget Mike Goodson.
     
  23. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Just bc he was trying to replace him with a better option at a different time on another team, doesn't really have any barring about what he'd do in DEN.

    If there were a few Stewart's around in FA, I'm sure he'd go after one. But, with the lack of quality RBs out there, his options are very limited.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    How?
     
  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The reason Reggie makes some sense is because he can secure 2 positions of need, scat back and returner, even if it is at a lesser degree, the reason why I have Bradshaw over him is because Bradshaw can be a complete back, as well as do the things reggie can do from an offensive perspective, Bradshaw changes my view of the returner position, I would sacrifice for him because he brings more to the table.
     
  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    But let's think about this work ethic thing. John Fox comes in and he's a new head coach. He hasn't seen Knowshon's work ethic, we've been in a lockout. How does he know to give up on Knowshon because of work ethic? Woody cited a source close to McDaniels, talking about what Josh McDaniels came to believe of Knowshon Moreno. Is Brian Xanders, who drafted Knowshon I believe, likely to feel the same way? I don't know about that. I smell dissention. Josh McDaniels was well known to have alienated most of everyone in the organization by the time he was booted. So is Brian Xanders going to fill John Fox in on Knowshon Moreno's poor work ethic? Perhaps not as likely as Woody Plaige would have us think.

    Just saying on this one...perhaps Fox IS likely to bring DeAngelo in...but at the same time, Woody's report doesn't really move the needle.
     
  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I read a headline the other day, before Jason La Canfora's report on Reggie. The headline said that Reggie Bush blames the turf for his ****ed up knee. My first reaction was: "It's also the turf that allowed you to be what (little) you've been."

    The turf plays into his game, emphasizing his speed and quickness which are really the only weapons he has to him.

    Grass: 167 carries for 563 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, 4 TDs, 7 fumbles
    Turf: 357 carries for 1527 yards, 4.3 yards per carry, 13 TDs, 7 fumbles

    Last I checked, Miami plays on grass. Why is this a good idea again?
     
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  28. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Michael Bush > Reggie Bush

    Michael Bush's salary < Reggie Bush's salary
     
  29. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    We've already heard Fox say, "RB is the top priority." Now, there's more evidence as to why Fox may have already ruled Moreno out.
     
  30. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    And before anyone starts thinking that the 3.4/4.3 disparity is just because the ground game might be better at home than away, keep in mind that the away/home split is 3.9/4.1 so actually it's the other way around. His home/away disparity is influenced by the fact that he hasn't run well on grass. On his 98 away carries that he played on turf, he averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
     
  31. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ''That's the problem. The Dolphins ARE imagining that. They continue to make personnel decisions based on the Wildcat. The idea of the Wildcat is that if Miami gets good enough at it then opponents have to spend way more time and energy figuring out how to deal with it than we have to in order to run it. But then they bend their resources personnel decisions to it. That defeats the purpose. You need to be able to run NORMAL offense in the NFL, not just Wildcat. As soon as Mike Pouncey was drafted, did they give him a playbook? No. Did they give him sheets on Wildcat stuff? Yes. Daniel Thomas was drafted, in fact they got so nervous about him they traded up to get him, because he can replace Ronnie Brown's role in the Wildcat. And now Reggie Bush, a pure East-West runner that is a glorified slot receiver rather than a tailback, is here because you can't watch 5 runs of his without thinking he's purely an East-West runner and would probably be good in the jet sweep role in the Wildcat.''

    ''So great. Wonderful. Set up the entire offense for the Wildcat. And in the mean time on the other 90% of plays, we suck.''

    first of all, your claiming that their interest in Bush is wildcat related...Bush hasn't run the wildcat to my knowledge to any sort of extent, projecting that we like him because he's an east west runner and that we want that out of our jet sweep guy is just a big stretch imo.

    Also, how do you know Pouncey only received wildcat stuff?, you sound pretty sure on that one?, maybe you know something I don't on that, and if you do, my bad.

    You really think they moved up for thomas because they had wildcat on their mind?, I think it had more to do with the desperate need for a running back that let his major conference in rushing during his first 2 years at the position, the fact that he can run it is only icing on the cake, not the determining factor.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That could be the case. I do believe in taking guys at face value more often than not when they say things like that. But at the same time, I've seen more misdirection from the Denver Broncos front office this off season than I have from any other front office. Just saying. Nonetheless I don't think Woody Plaige's note moves the needle, and perhaps there is reason to believe Fox will pounce on DeAngelo...but there's also some reason to wonder about that (which Aqua and Alen illustrated well). We'll just have to see. But regardless, you know that a guy like DeAngelo Williams isn't going to just have one offer on the table. Why should we be scared off knowing that another team is interested? There are likely to be more than one other team involved in his bidding. If he's right for this team, go after him.
     
  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Less of a stretch if you've actually watched how the Saints have used him. But, go on.

    There was a report about it, back when Pouncey said he wasn't given a playbook. He said he was given a bunch of notes on the Wildcat.

    Given the other runners available in this Draft? Yes, I absolutely think they put a premium on Daniel Thomas because he was a JUCO Quarterback and has been running the Wildcat at K-State both years.

    Given they spent a pick as high as the mid-2nd round on a guy that was purely for the Wildcat, I really don't know how it should be considered a "stretch" to say that they're assembling a pair that includes an East-West runner with a JUCO Quarterback convert...with the Wildcat in mind. I'm not saying that they don't think the players in question can do anything other than Wildcat. I'm just pointing out that the Wildcat remains prevalent in their thought process on personnel, and to me that's a problem. That's my opinion. I think when you keep making decisions envisioning things in the Wildcat, it impairs your judgment because it's easy to take the Wildcat's value out of the correct context.
     
  34. FaninPatsyLand

    FaninPatsyLand The Truth

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    Teams quarterbacked by (your list, not mine): Brady, Manning, Rivers, Brees and Rodgers.

    And you're using this point as justification as to why the Miami Dolphins don't need a strong (if not prolific) runner to be successful?

    Good god.
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think folks are just imagining what his skillset could look like if he were to get signed..He's not my first choice, but if things don't fall right, he's not a bad fall back option..What do you think Bradshaw and Mike Bush are going to demand on the open market?, they seem like 2 players that have it out in becoming feature backs and probably want to get paid as such... well thats fine, but we just drafted a physical specimen that looks like he can carry the load as a rook, So If were confident in that, then the scat back/returner becomes more of a priority.

    I mean which elements are more important to the success of this team overall, the compliment to thomas, the different skillset that is lacking in this offense and team {scatback/returner= Sproles or Bush, or the complete back that's similar to Thomas Like Mike Bush who can carry the load but doesn't neccessarily fill either of the voids I just mentioned..Thats why Bradshaw is at the top for me, because he can do both roles, however if Mike Bush is a completely healthy, than his skillset makes you rethink schematically..

    What would you rather have, a double pounding attack without the quick back in the offense, or Thomas and the scatback and what those combination of skillsets can cover?
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Based on what?

    The better football players. Michael Bush, Ahmad Bradshaw and DeAngelo Williams. I think you're making the mistake of placing too much on Daniel Thomas' shoulders. This is a common mistake. Rookies are commonly overrated, and none more so than rookie tailbacks. There IS a learning curve, and there will especially be a learning curve for a guy that was a JUCO Quarterback only two years ago, and is still learning how to be a true tailback. Part of the reason you draft Thomas is because he can block, catch and run the wildcat. So why isn't HE the factor back? If he can do all those things but he's still learning how to be a true tailback, why isn't he the factor back while he continues to learn from RBs Coach Jeff Nixon how to be a real tailback? You could sign a DeAngelo Williams or Michael Bush to be your bread and butter back, and then let the rookie work his way into the offense as a factor back. When the Jets drafted Shonn Greene, did they immediately cut Thomas Jones and then buy an airy role player to pair with Greene? No. The next year when they did let Thomas Jones go, did they go with a Reggie Bush type to complement Greene? No. They went with LaDainian Tomlinson.

    I'd rather have the most talented ball carriers. Reggie Bush doesn't fit that description, to me. He's a specialty back, and not one of rare talent. Because of his shortcomings, you can actually find guys like him for cheap price tags. He is a luxury that only works when you have a wide open offense (which I take it we're hoping to have) run by an elite level ball distributor (which we surely do not have).
     
  37. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Well, it's pretty easy to see that DEN's running game has been under-achieving for quite a while. So you have to figure they're making some kind of a change there either way.

    Why should we be scared off knowing that another team is interested? Why pay more for him than you think he's worth?

    As I've said a million times on here, I'm just not a big enough believer in Deangelo holding up long enough to warrant the size of the contract someone will be paying him.

    My prediction if we do end up signing him: We make him the highest paid RB in this year's FA, he goes for around 1500 total yards this year while periodically dinged up, the following year the number of yards dwindles and the injuries rise, and the trend continues.

    The same people who now knock us for signing Grove, Smiley, etc. to big money knowing their injury-history will add DWill to that list lol

    I hope not, but that's an honest assessment. Don't wana sound too emo or anything.
     
  38. Southbeach

    Southbeach Banned

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    I may be wrong here but, believe Ginn outperformed Bush over the past few years.
     
  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Drew Brees has averaged 6.0 yards per attempt throwing the ball to Reggie Bush over the last three seasons.

    Why are people so gaga over this guy?

    I guess throwing to him is considered an extension of the ground game, but that's with Drew Brees throwing the ball. And even so, completion percentage was only 77% while yards per attempt was 6.0. Do people imagine those going UP with Chad Henne and Brian Daboll as opposed to Drew Brees and Sean Payton? Davone Bess has caught 70% of the balls thrown at him with 7.2 yards per attempt. I guess the primary benefit would be the lower interception percentage for Bush (0.5%) as opposed to Bess (3.6%) but how much of that is because of Brees versus Henne? Chad Pennington only threw 1 interception trying to hit Davone Bess in his 90 throws (1.1%). Henne has thrown 10 interceptions in his 214 attempts trying to hit Bess (4.8%). Henne's also thrown 3.6% interceptions trying to hit Ricky Williams, Pat Cobbs and Lex Hilliard, who've been filling the role of 3rd down back the past two years.

    I don't know. I'm just not seeing it. The guy averages a career 7.3 yards per catch, about 6.0 yards per attempt the last three years. He's averaged 3.4 yards per carry on grass in his career. I'm not quite seeing the "big play" guy that everyone else is, and the big plays he did make in New Orleans, I dare say that Drew Brees and Sean Payton had something to do with that...and I don't know that I see Chad Henne and Brian Daboll replicating that.

    Take account of that, take account of his wrecked knee which he seems to openly acknowledge, his penchant for getting hurt, take account of the many slot options we already possess...why do we "set the market" for this guy?
     
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  40. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    Given the indications that we will re-commit to the Wildcat, the interest in Bush (or a mobile QB like VY) should be unsurprising. What would ordinarily go against the MO, bring in an injury-plagued player, gets overlooked from time to time by Ireland. He did it with Smiley, maybe he'll do it again with Bush.

    All I can say is, when Reggie Bush gets re-injured and subsequently cut, we'll look back and say 'I told you so'

    Beyond that, we've done a poor job of utilizing the tailback in the passing game (the fullback, for some inexplicable reason, has been unusually involved). Even though we have a new offensive coordinator, I am not yet convinced that we are changing our philosophy there. That means that Reggie Bush runs the sweep, returns kicks and catches the odd pass, and, well, that seems like an awfully expensive way to do that.

    But Ross is clearly a name-whore. And Gruden will make good use of him next year. So that ultimately tips the scales towards Reggie.
     

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