Phins Max Protection Continued

The weight you guys put into statistics is ridiculous. I am glad I trust my eye over ANYONE else's because stats are apparently better than a pair of eyes.

 

You mean you're not swayed by the "extra pass blockers per extra pass rusher" metric? Me neither. I think anyone who's ever played or coached would have a good laugh about that.

 

Yea its useful to some degree, but the weight people are putting into it is ridiculous.

 

What you're not even talking about is that the amount of blockers kept in stayed relatively the same. Which is indicative of a trend in the SCHEME. The amount of blockers we kept in is a schematic thing as it didn't change even when the amount of rushers fell off. Amount of extra blockers is as big a farce as Carbon Emissions per Capita. How many EXTRA blockers you have is dictated mainly by how many rushers are there. From 2008 to 2010, the rushers decreased, but the blockers stayed around the same figure. Which means that's what our offense was told to do. You're acting as if the 2.2 difference between Henne and Pennington is because Henne called so much more. Nah, it's because the DC's called so much less. The fact that the number stayed stagnant is evidence that it's by design.

In 2008, we were number 1 in blockers called as well. It's just that the scheme worked because we were a running team. Last year we couldn't run. Guys dropped into coverage. We still had a run blocking scheme.

 

I just don't get it. These guys will post a number. And that number is now God. They refuse to even talk about why the number is what it is. What on the field caused that number to be that. Is an INT always an INT? Anyone watching the end of the Steelers game would know that's not the case. Dolphin fans seem to have this thing where they throw out a number to prove a point but refuse to actually understand what that number means. Any explanation of the number becomes an excuse or homerism.

Say for example 19 INT's last year. Receivers fell down. Balls were batted in the air to players by receivers....but 19 INT's prove their point while the actual facts on the ground dispute that. It's like a war. numbers don't mean anything. It's what happens on the ground.

 

This is only true if you believe that there are no protection calls made at the LOS.

 

The explanation is the protection calls at the LOS are wrong. You don't accept that explanation, because you believe there were no calls made at the LOS. It is what it is.

 

Haha. When did you EVER see me say that no protection calls were made at the line of scrimmage? Mis-characterize the opposition to win. It's like I'm arguing with Democrats

 

...

Its clearly what you were trying to say.

But if thats not what you were trying to say, then exactly who was responsible for not making the right protection calls?

 

1. The number of blockers called per pass play increased each year. There was an especially big jump as I recall from 2008 to 2009. This refudiates (tossed that one in there for ya) your claim that the number of blockers called "was constant".

2. If your theory was true, then the statistic I came up with (extra blockers per extra protector) would show MUCH more variance than it did. The reality is most QBs I found ranged tightly in between 1.5 and 2.0, with tails of 1.3 and 2.1. Chad Henne's 4.2 was a clear outlier.

3. Additionally, Stringer Bell is correct. Your theory does not account for quarterbacks making protection calls at the line of scrimmage.

Overall, you seem to be conveniently trying to isolate this issue as if the people that don't like Chad Henne have thrown all their eggs into this basket, this statistic, as far as the reason Chad Henne is not a very good quarterback. That is not reflective of reality. It's one among many, many, many arguments and pieces of evidence cited.

 

Just because it's indicative of the system, doesn't mean it wasn't called at the line.

 

I'd bet your avatar is turning over in his grave because of what your beloved Republican party has become. Mis-characterization is not exclusive to one party.

 

I'd be spinning with him. Can't take a joke sir?

 

Of course I can, especially from you, since I am thinking you may be Todd's alter ego anyway. hehehehe.

Even being a Dem, I have respect for Barry, because I believe he was a statesman not a politician. That's all I'm gonna say on the topic for fear of someone saying I'm getting political.

 

I highlighted the sentence that doesn't make sense to me.

Let's start with "an extra OL". The Dolphins had 3,231 OLs in the game in pass protection on 644 pass plays. So they used a 6th OL 11 times. That's not really a significant amount.

But what I'm wondering is why do you automatically assume that guys like Lousaka Polite, Jeron Mastrud, Mickey Shuler and Dedrick Epps shouldn't be running routes? They may not be great receiving options but having them run routes at least FORCES defenses to cover them, and doesn't give the defenses the luxury of having extra guys focused on reading the QB's eyes, or anticipating other players' routes. I think it's just a convenient line of thinking, not one that I think a lot of football coaches would agree with.

As for your focusing on the personnel groupings, the Dolphins used 2.51 Wide Receivers per pass play. Lousaka Polite was only in the game on about a third of the pass plays. In fact, altogether the guys you're focused on (the #2 TEs, Polite, 6th OL) accounted for 391 of 644 pass plays...constituting only 162 of the "extra" blockers.

If the Dolphins were so hell bent on having those guys in to block so much because they're not very big threats, fine. Do that. But then, why did they have the other guys (Fasano, Brown, Ricky and Lex) stay in to block 385 more times?

Either way, I don't see how this argument holds water.

 

Again this is getting into the realm of being ridiculous. Your comparing a Miami Dolphins team that used 5-7 step drops 95% of the time to other teams who used more of a 3-step spread/shotgun mentality and sets more often than not.

A 5 and 7 step drop would need more blockers for protection than a 3 step/ shotgun set, correct? Well if the Dolphins used 5-7 step drops almost ALL the time, it would only logical to think that Henne would call in extra blockers for protection on his deep drop. What WOULD be useful is to see the amount of extra blockers Henne kept in on his 3 step drop compared to other teams. Comparing a team HEAVY on 5-7 step drops to teams who use more spread concepts is quite pointless.

Yeah you can say "Well Pennington had the same drops as Henne did". Yeah well Pennington also has been in the league about 10 more years than Chad Henne and is known to one of the most cerebral and intelligent quarterbacks the game has ever seen. Yeah lets compare that to a 2nd year starter.

 

So you've compiled the data on how often Miami used 3, 5 and 7 step drops compared with all the other teams in the league? Or you're just speculating that Miami was unique in this regard?

 

Would be awesome if someone had the numbers on 3-5-7 step drops. I don't have games charted for last season yet.

 

I looked at the amount of times Miami used the 3-5-7 step drop in a 4 game span and it was overwhelming 5-7 steps. I can do the entire season, but it will take me some time, and I GUARANTEE that Miami used 5-7 step drops 90%+.

 

Well, wake me up when we have numbers that show Miami's tendency toward 3-, 5- and 7-step drops around the league, along with data that correlates it with the need to keep 4.2 extra blockers in to block per 1 extra pass rusher, a figure which is utterly unheard of in the league.

 

and wake me up when we switch from the archaic outdated 5-7 step drop being ran about 95% of the time. The PA was used to setup the wideouts. Dont get it twisted, it wasn't for Henne nor was it to have defenders bite. Anyone that played football at the skill positions knows that wideouts use the 5-7 step drop to get completely into their route. By the end of their drop the wideouts are usually at the break or end of their route. This goes along with Henning's outdated mentality that 5-7 step drops are needed to effectively set up the wideouts as well. We NEVER ran 3 step drops. Protection calls by the quarterbacks are ALWAYS affected by their drop, and last year was no different.

How many offenses do you see running the 5-7 step drop 95% of the time? Even the Jets, who lived on controlling the LOS ran 3 step drops all the time.

 

It's pretty simple. You assume 5 blockers on every pass play. In fact the rules dictate it. So the part of the 5.85 figure that really matters, is the 0.85 extra protectors per pass play. I believe that works out to 547 extra blockers. Then what you do is you tally up how many players rushed the passer on pass plays in 2010. This isn't an easy stat to gather, you have to tally it up from each individual game record. But I did the work and that's how I came up with the results I did. You assume 4 pass rushers on most pass plays, whether it's a 4-3 or a 3-4. You also assume an OL should be able to block 4 pass rushers. But how many 5th, 6th, 7th pass rushers did teams bring against you, that necessitated you keep extra guys in? That's the ratio. I believe I found something along the lines of 2732 pass rushers, which means 156 "extra" pass rushers, versus 547 "extra" blockers for the full season. That means a full season ratio of 3.5 extra blockers kept in for every extra pass rusher. But if you look at the 13 games Henne played by himself, he kept in 459 extra blockers, versus 110 extra pass rushers...which is 4.2 extra blockers per extra pass rusher. In the 3 games Henne either did not play at all, or only played partially, that was more about 2.3 extra blockers per extra pass rusher. That's why I've said the stat was sensitive to whether Henne was in the game.

Considering the the nature of the formula, with a numerator and a denominator, and the variance seen across the league in both the denominator and numerator, you would think this statistic would show a wide variance. If Chad Henne has a 4.2 then you expect others to end up with like a 3.5 here, 1.2 there, 0.8, 2.0, 3.3, 5.0, etc. But the results I found in testing other teams around the league suggested the exact opposite. Most teams varied tightly in a range of 1.5 to 2.0, with the maximum being 2.1 (Broncos) and the minimum being 1.3 (Jets). This surprising lack of a wide variance shows that across the league, extra protectors ARE tied strongly with how much teams are blitzing them, and those protections ARE being called at the line.

So when someone criticizes the stat and points out that the egregious 4.2 reading is wholly dependent on a severe drop in the tendency of teams to blitz the Dolphins...they don't realize it, but they're pointing out exactly what the critics of Chad Henne should be pointing out. Teams didn't blitz the Dolphins, and Henne kept a ton of players in to protect him anyway...sending 3 and 4 receivers out to run patterns against 7 or even 8 men in coverage.

This not only hurt the offense, but it's a symptom of a problem. The same way a fever is in one way a problem itself, but also a symptom of things that may be going on in your body that are less visible but potentially more problematic.

 

It SHOULD also be pointed out that on a 5-7 step drop he has Pat McQuistan, Joe Berger, and John Jerry blocking for him in the interior yet we STILL gave up MUCH pressure up the middle with the "extra protectors". Its a skewed stat and apparently carries all the weight in the world when evaluating a quarterback.

 

I'm so confused...if we have 5 oline, 3 receivers going on routes, and one QB, that makes 9 players. That leaves you two other players. So, if those other two were a RB and a TE, and Henne left them both in to block, wouldn't that be two extra blockers? I read your whole wall of text, explaining your stat, and it seems to me that you're going through great lengths to try to find something to rag on Henne for...even coming up with your own stat. LOL. It isn't possible to have 4.2 extra blockers per extra pass rusher. You can't have that many people on the field.

 

I agree with that, but I think what the stat says is you don't get an extra rusher every play. Say it's an even 4 extra blockers per extra pass rusher. That could mean there is an extra blocker on 3 plays with no extra rusher. Then one when there is 1 extra blocker and an extra pass rusher.

 

Well if you're focused on making sure the numbers are exact then we're talking 644 full season pass plays, 2725 pass rushers, 3767 pass protectors, which leads to 547 extra blockers (547 = 3767 - (644 * 5)), 149 extra pass rushers (149 = 2725 - (644 * 4)), and a 3.67 full season ratio.

Henne was in on 32 of 41 pass plays versus the Titans and 19 of 45 versus the Patriots. I have no way of separating out the data from within a game, which is why I tallied the 13 games that Henne played by himself.

As for pass rushers I told you, you have to compile that game by game. For instance in the Week 1 Bills game, there were 174 pass rushers. In the Week 2 Vikings game there were only 85 pass rushers.

The New York Jets' full season ratio was 1.30 not 1.36.

 

I did make a mistake on the Phins' full season number. I understated it by accident. It was 3.7 not 3.5. I did not make a mistake on Chad Henne's 13 game number (4.2)

 

I see. So your tactic then is to pretend that people that don't like Chad Henne only have this one statistic as their reason. Interesting. Not very effective.

 

It seems to me that you're going through great lengths to find fault in any reason anyone has to not like Chad Henne. Even coming up with a post where you show you clearly are having trouble understanding what we're saying, but not letting it stop you from casting judgment upon it anyway.

 

No...

Your banging the drum on a statistic that doesn't take account for the principle of each individual offense. Whats the first and foremost priority of an offense? To protect the quarterback. Sending out 2 wideouts or 5 wideouts doesn't really matter, the right protection being called is. The protection relies on the drop of a quarterback and secondly,(To quote TedSlimm) the "flow" of the play (play action to the strength of the formation, or "web" action away from the strength of the formation

The "strength" of the formation is dictated by whichever side has 2 out of 3 receivers, or a receiver and tight end.

The depth of the drop absolutely takes precedence over how many rushers will possibly be coming in terms of calling protection. If the protection calls for a RB/TE to stay in and block on a 5 or 7 step drop and one of the the expected rushers doesn't come, then the RB/TE has the option to release.

Which goes back the #1 priority of protecting the quarterback.

If you're running a more updated offense you automatically have more receivers running routes especially in 3-4 WR sets. These quarterbacks are using 3 step drops because the "strength" of the formation has already dictated that you don't have as many extra blockers at your disposal to help in protection.

But carry on about this statistic that carries such enormous weight.