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"dont't trade draft picks!" Really? About 30% bust quickly anyway

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by padre31, May 27, 2011.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I've always thought that draft picks are overvalued in terms of what they represent, basically a claim on an unknown player's NFL future rights to access free agency.

    So let us take a look at 2008's 2nd rd draft class:

    32
    Phillip Merling
    Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 270 lbs
    Position: DE
    School: Clemson
    Class: Senior


    #33
    Donnie Avery
    Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 190 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Houston
    Class:

    #33
    Donnie Avery
    Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 190 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Houston
    Class:


    #34*
    Devin Thomas
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 221 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: MSU
    Class: Junior

    #34*
    Devin Thomas
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 221 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: MSU
    Class: Junior


    #35
    Brandon Flowers
    Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 190 lbs
    Position: CB
    School: Virginia Tech
    Class: Senior

    #35
    Brandon Flowers
    Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 190 lbs
    Position: CB
    School: Virginia Tech
    Class: Senior


    #36*
    Jordy Nelson
    Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 217 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Kansas St.
    Class:

    #36*
    Jordy Nelson
    Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 217 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Kansas St.
    Class:


    #37
    Chris Lofton
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 246 lbs
    Position: LB
    School: Oklahoma
    Class:

    #37
    Chris Lofton
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 246 lbs
    Position: LB
    School: Oklahoma
    Class:


    #38*
    John Carlson
    Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 250 lbs
    Position: TE
    School: Notre Dame
    Class:

    #38*
    John Carlson
    Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 250 lbs
    Position: TE
    School: Notre Dame
    Class:


    #39
    Chilo Rachal
    Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 315 lbs
    Position: G
    School: USC
    Class:

    #39
    Chilo Rachal
    Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 315 lbs
    Position: G
    School: USC
    Class:


    #40
    Tracy Porter
    Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 185 lbs
    Position: CB
    School: Indiana
    Class:

    #40
    Tracy Porter
    Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 185 lbs
    Position: CB
    School: Indiana
    Class:


    #41
    James Hardy
    Ht/Wt: 6-7 / 220 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Indiana
    Class: Junior

    #41
    James Hardy
    Ht/Wt: 6-7 / 220 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Indiana
    Class: Junior


    #42
    Eddie Royal
    Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 184 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Virginia Tech
    Class:

    #42
    Eddie Royal
    Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 184 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Virginia Tech
    Class:


    #43*
    Tyrell Johnson
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 207 lbs
    Position: S
    School: Arkansas St.
    Class:

    #43*
    Tyrell Johnson
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 207 lbs
    Position: S
    School: Arkansas St.
    Class:


    #44
    Matt Forte
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 222 lbs
    Position: RB
    School: Tulane
    Class:

    #44
    Matt Forte
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 222 lbs
    Position: RB
    School: Tulane
    Class:


    #45
    Jordon Dizon
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 229 lbs
    Position: LB
    School: Colorado
    Class:

    #45
    Jordon Dizon
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 229 lbs
    Position: LB
    School: Colorado
    Class:


    #46
    Jerome Simpson
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 190 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Costal Carolina
    Class:

    #46
    Jerome Simpson
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 190 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Costal Carolina
    Class:


    #47
    Trevor Laws
    Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 304 lbs
    Position: DT
    School: Notre Dame
    Class:

    #47
    Trevor Laws
    Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 304 lbs
    Position: DT
    School: Notre Dame
    Class:


    #48*
    Fred Davis
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 248 lbs
    Position: TE
    School: Southern Cal
    Class:

    #48*
    Fred Davis
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 248 lbs
    Position: TE
    School: Southern Cal
    Class:


    #49
    DeSean Jackson
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 166 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: California
    Class: Junior

    #49
    DeSean Jackson
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 166 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: California
    Class: Junior


    #50
    Calais Campbell
    Ht/Wt: 6-8 / 280 lbs
    Position: DE
    School: Miami
    Class: Junior

    #50
    Calais Campbell
    Ht/Wt: 6-8 / 280 lbs
    Position: DE
    School: Miami
    Class: Junior


    #51
    Malcolm Kelly
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Oklahoma
    Class: Junior

    #51
    Malcolm Kelly
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Oklahoma
    Class: Junior


    #*52
    Quentin Groves
    Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 254 lbs
    Position: DE
    School: Auburn
    Class: Senior

    #*52
    Quentin Groves
    Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 254 lbs
    Position: DE
    School: Auburn
    Class: Senior


    #53
    Limas Sweed
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Texas
    Class: Senior

    #53
    Limas Sweed
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
    Position: WR
    School: Texas
    Class: Senior


    #54
    Jason Jones
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 273 lbs
    Position: DE
    School: Eastern Mich.
    Class:

    #54
    Jason Jones
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 273 lbs
    Position: DE
    School: Eastern Mich.
    Class:


    #55*
    Ray Rice
    Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 195 lbs
    Position: RB
    School: Rutgers
    Class: Junior

    #55*
    Ray Rice
    Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 195 lbs
    Position: RB
    School: Rutgers
    Class: Junior


    #56*
    Brian Brohm
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 226 lbs
    Position: QB
    School: Louisville
    Class: Senior

    #56*
    Brian Brohm
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 226 lbs
    Position: QB
    School: Louisville
    Class: Senior


    #57*
    Chad Henne
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 223 lbs
    Position: QB
    School: Michigan
    Class: Senior

    #57*
    Chad Henne
    Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 223 lbs
    Position: QB
    School: Michigan
    Class: Senior


    #58*
    Dexter Jackson
    Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 182 lbs
    Position: KR
    School: Appalachian St.
    Class:

    #58*
    Dexter Jackson
    Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 182 lbs
    Position: KR
    School: Appalachian St.
    Class:


    #59
    Mike Pollak
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 299 lbs
    Position: OT
    School: Arizona St.
    Class:

    #59
    Mike Pollak
    Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 299 lbs
    Position: OT
    School: Arizona St.
    Class:


    #60
    Patrick Lee
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 200 lbs
    Position: DB
    School: Auburn
    Class:

    #60
    Patrick Lee
    Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 200 lbs
    Position: DB
    School: Auburn
    Class:


    #61
    Martellus Bennett
    Ht/Wt: 6-6 / 260 lbs
    Position: TE
    School: Texas A&M
    Class:

    #61
    Martellus Bennett
    Ht/Wt: 6-6 / 260 lbs
    Position: TE
    School: Texas A&M
    Class:


    #62
    Terrence Wheatley
    Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 178 lbs
    Position: CB
    School: Colorado
    Class:

    #62
    Terrence Wheatley
    Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 178 lbs
    Position: CB
    School: Colorado
    Class:


    #63
    Terrell Thomas
    Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 198 lbs
    Position: CB
    School: Southern Cal
    Class:

    31 picks, now let's look at who has been clear busts:

    12 picks, have busted or been clear disappointments:

    -Merling
    -Thomas
    -Hardy
    -Johnson
    -Dizon
    -Simpson
    -Kelly
    -Groves
    -Sweed
    -Brohm
    -Jackson
    -Wheatley
    -Lee

    Now, it can be argued over with Phil Merling but I would suggest if they felt Merling was solid, they would not have drafted Jared Odrick.

    This is one of the reasons why I believe that trading draft choices for proven NFL players who are in their prime, is a good deal, the problem with such trades is not on a talent for talent comparison it is the large contract the recently acquired veteran will command.

    That is one of the reasons why trading draft choices, on occasion, for a proven Vet, especially a impact Vet such as a Ricky Williams or a Jay Cutler make sense for teams, where it runs amok is deals such as a #2 and a #5 for Jason Taylor.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would trade for Fred davis..
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Would not surprise if he finally wins the Te job outright, but Cooley has held him off for yrs now.

    For me, it was always odd how draft choices are held in such high esteem when the actual players who are taken may do nothing at all in the NFL, or not very much due to injuries or what have you.

    To me, good teams do use the Draft, but they are not just married to it as the only way to build a team, it is my personal philosophy that these guys, some just did not become bad football players and there is hay to be made picking through the cast offs the skill is in having a GM who really knows what his coaching staff looks for in players and what their scheme requires as a DefCord or OffCord is not going to spend much time at all studying these guys, the GM has to know who will work and who won't and to not waste the Staff's time bringing in players who just do not fit what a team does.
     
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    The thing about draft picks is they potentially provide the most value-added. You can get players at a lower cost than their performance would warrant in an open market. With the salary cap, you need players that provide that.
     
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  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Oh I agree, which to me is sort of the dirty little secret of the NFL, it is not that so and so is a bad player, it is that a Rook works much more cheaply, ie, they do not wish to spend the money for that extra 10% worth of performance a Vet offers. That said one of the great GM feats is Ted Thompson in Green Bay finding guys week in and week out for a injured packers team, and not only did they fill in they played really well like Erik Walden racking up some sacks for them late in the yr.

    THAT to me is worth more then the draft choices themselves, if one thinks about what a draft choice actually is, it amounts to a team being allowed to own the rights to a player they have identified and feel will fit into their systems on offense or defense, no different then a Street Fa or UDFA or what have you, the difference being in the perceived value of the draft choice over the supposedly unknown quantity that the UDFA or Street FA offers.

    For example, Ryan Mallett has a imptued value, even though he has never played a down or taken a snap in a practice, Bruce Gradkowski has a lesser value as he has already taken snaps and played in games and did not perform particularly well, Mallett could very well do nothing at all, but his value in people's minds is higher simply because he is a unknown/draft pick.
     
  6. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    Any reason why half of the players are just duplicates or double listed? Suck twice as bad?


    Draft picks are like lottery tickets; if you play you can't win
     
  7. funkdat

    funkdat New Member

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    These numbers come from a GM:

    1st round pick's bust 25% of the time, Second round pick and they bust 50% of the time, and 3rd rounders bust 70% of the time, and every round after that it gets worst and worst.

    So yes, teams and fans overvalued draft picks all the time.
     
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  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    See, but that his heresy for Draftniks funkdat, to listen to the process each yr one would think every draft choice in rd #1 or #2 is a sure fire all pro, when the reality is..they bust out frequently.

    Which is why the Brandon Marshall trade for Sergio Kindle (who likely will never play in the NFL) and Orlando Franklin (who has injury issues already) was a steal..for us and imho such a trade for a Kyle Orton also makes sense as the likelihood of a #1 or #2 pick busting is far greater then the likelihood that Orton just flops in Miami, but draftniks do not want to hear it.

    Those stats btw, sort of reveal why the Patriots do what they do on draft day, they know picks bust all of the time so it is better to have several #1 or #2 picks to choose from rather then one moderately low #1 or #2 pick.

    But that also creates opportunity to sift through the rubble of guys who do not make it in New England that many high draft choices and only so many practice reps to go around, they will miss on some guys who really can play but just did not make it in NE.
     
  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    lol... YO Funkdat what up homie!!!..

    Why do I get a kick out of you calling people by their funky names?..lol
     

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