I've always thought that draft picks are overvalued in terms of what they represent, basically a claim on an unknown player's NFL future rights to access free agency. So let us take a look at 2008's 2nd rd draft class: 32 Phillip Merling Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 270 lbs Position: DE School: Clemson Class: Senior #33 Donnie Avery Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 190 lbs Position: WR School: Houston Class: #33 Donnie Avery Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 190 lbs Position: WR School: Houston Class: #34* Devin Thomas Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 221 lbs Position: WR School: MSU Class: Junior #34* Devin Thomas Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 221 lbs Position: WR School: MSU Class: Junior #35 Brandon Flowers Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 190 lbs Position: CB School: Virginia Tech Class: Senior #35 Brandon Flowers Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 190 lbs Position: CB School: Virginia Tech Class: Senior #36* Jordy Nelson Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 217 lbs Position: WR School: Kansas St. Class: #36* Jordy Nelson Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 217 lbs Position: WR School: Kansas St. Class: #37 Chris Lofton Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 246 lbs Position: LB School: Oklahoma Class: #37 Chris Lofton Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 246 lbs Position: LB School: Oklahoma Class: #38* John Carlson Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 250 lbs Position: TE School: Notre Dame Class: #38* John Carlson Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 250 lbs Position: TE School: Notre Dame Class: #39 Chilo Rachal Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 315 lbs Position: G School: USC Class: #39 Chilo Rachal Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 315 lbs Position: G School: USC Class: #40 Tracy Porter Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 185 lbs Position: CB School: Indiana Class: #40 Tracy Porter Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 185 lbs Position: CB School: Indiana Class: #41 James Hardy Ht/Wt: 6-7 / 220 lbs Position: WR School: Indiana Class: Junior #41 James Hardy Ht/Wt: 6-7 / 220 lbs Position: WR School: Indiana Class: Junior #42 Eddie Royal Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 184 lbs Position: WR School: Virginia Tech Class: #42 Eddie Royal Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 184 lbs Position: WR School: Virginia Tech Class: #43* Tyrell Johnson Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 207 lbs Position: S School: Arkansas St. Class: #43* Tyrell Johnson Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 207 lbs Position: S School: Arkansas St. Class: #44 Matt Forte Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 222 lbs Position: RB School: Tulane Class: #44 Matt Forte Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 222 lbs Position: RB School: Tulane Class: #45 Jordon Dizon Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 229 lbs Position: LB School: Colorado Class: #45 Jordon Dizon Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 229 lbs Position: LB School: Colorado Class: #46 Jerome Simpson Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 190 lbs Position: WR School: Costal Carolina Class: #46 Jerome Simpson Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 190 lbs Position: WR School: Costal Carolina Class: #47 Trevor Laws Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 304 lbs Position: DT School: Notre Dame Class: #47 Trevor Laws Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 304 lbs Position: DT School: Notre Dame Class: #48* Fred Davis Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 248 lbs Position: TE School: Southern Cal Class: #48* Fred Davis Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 248 lbs Position: TE School: Southern Cal Class: #49 DeSean Jackson Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 166 lbs Position: WR School: California Class: Junior #49 DeSean Jackson Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 166 lbs Position: WR School: California Class: Junior #50 Calais Campbell Ht/Wt: 6-8 / 280 lbs Position: DE School: Miami Class: Junior #50 Calais Campbell Ht/Wt: 6-8 / 280 lbs Position: DE School: Miami Class: Junior #51 Malcolm Kelly Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs Position: WR School: Oklahoma Class: Junior #51 Malcolm Kelly Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs Position: WR School: Oklahoma Class: Junior #*52 Quentin Groves Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 254 lbs Position: DE School: Auburn Class: Senior #*52 Quentin Groves Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 254 lbs Position: DE School: Auburn Class: Senior #53 Limas Sweed Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs Position: WR School: Texas Class: Senior #53 Limas Sweed Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs Position: WR School: Texas Class: Senior #54 Jason Jones Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 273 lbs Position: DE School: Eastern Mich. Class: #54 Jason Jones Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 273 lbs Position: DE School: Eastern Mich. Class: #55* Ray Rice Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 195 lbs Position: RB School: Rutgers Class: Junior #55* Ray Rice Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 195 lbs Position: RB School: Rutgers Class: Junior #56* Brian Brohm Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 226 lbs Position: QB School: Louisville Class: Senior #56* Brian Brohm Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 226 lbs Position: QB School: Louisville Class: Senior #57* Chad Henne Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 223 lbs Position: QB School: Michigan Class: Senior #57* Chad Henne Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 223 lbs Position: QB School: Michigan Class: Senior #58* Dexter Jackson Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 182 lbs Position: KR School: Appalachian St. Class: #58* Dexter Jackson Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 182 lbs Position: KR School: Appalachian St. Class: #59 Mike Pollak Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 299 lbs Position: OT School: Arizona St. Class: #59 Mike Pollak Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 299 lbs Position: OT School: Arizona St. Class: #60 Patrick Lee Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 200 lbs Position: DB School: Auburn Class: #60 Patrick Lee Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 200 lbs Position: DB School: Auburn Class: #61 Martellus Bennett Ht/Wt: 6-6 / 260 lbs Position: TE School: Texas A&M Class: #61 Martellus Bennett Ht/Wt: 6-6 / 260 lbs Position: TE School: Texas A&M Class: #62 Terrence Wheatley Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 178 lbs Position: CB School: Colorado Class: #62 Terrence Wheatley Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 178 lbs Position: CB School: Colorado Class: #63 Terrell Thomas Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 198 lbs Position: CB School: Southern Cal Class: 31 picks, now let's look at who has been clear busts: 12 picks, have busted or been clear disappointments: -Merling -Thomas -Hardy -Johnson -Dizon -Simpson -Kelly -Groves -Sweed -Brohm -Jackson -Wheatley -Lee Now, it can be argued over with Phil Merling but I would suggest if they felt Merling was solid, they would not have drafted Jared Odrick. This is one of the reasons why I believe that trading draft choices for proven NFL players who are in their prime, is a good deal, the problem with such trades is not on a talent for talent comparison it is the large contract the recently acquired veteran will command. That is one of the reasons why trading draft choices, on occasion, for a proven Vet, especially a impact Vet such as a Ricky Williams or a Jay Cutler make sense for teams, where it runs amok is deals such as a #2 and a #5 for Jason Taylor. Thoughts?
Would not surprise if he finally wins the Te job outright, but Cooley has held him off for yrs now. For me, it was always odd how draft choices are held in such high esteem when the actual players who are taken may do nothing at all in the NFL, or not very much due to injuries or what have you. To me, good teams do use the Draft, but they are not just married to it as the only way to build a team, it is my personal philosophy that these guys, some just did not become bad football players and there is hay to be made picking through the cast offs the skill is in having a GM who really knows what his coaching staff looks for in players and what their scheme requires as a DefCord or OffCord is not going to spend much time at all studying these guys, the GM has to know who will work and who won't and to not waste the Staff's time bringing in players who just do not fit what a team does.
The thing about draft picks is they potentially provide the most value-added. You can get players at a lower cost than their performance would warrant in an open market. With the salary cap, you need players that provide that.
Oh I agree, which to me is sort of the dirty little secret of the NFL, it is not that so and so is a bad player, it is that a Rook works much more cheaply, ie, they do not wish to spend the money for that extra 10% worth of performance a Vet offers. That said one of the great GM feats is Ted Thompson in Green Bay finding guys week in and week out for a injured packers team, and not only did they fill in they played really well like Erik Walden racking up some sacks for them late in the yr. THAT to me is worth more then the draft choices themselves, if one thinks about what a draft choice actually is, it amounts to a team being allowed to own the rights to a player they have identified and feel will fit into their systems on offense or defense, no different then a Street Fa or UDFA or what have you, the difference being in the perceived value of the draft choice over the supposedly unknown quantity that the UDFA or Street FA offers. For example, Ryan Mallett has a imptued value, even though he has never played a down or taken a snap in a practice, Bruce Gradkowski has a lesser value as he has already taken snaps and played in games and did not perform particularly well, Mallett could very well do nothing at all, but his value in people's minds is higher simply because he is a unknown/draft pick.
Any reason why half of the players are just duplicates or double listed? Suck twice as bad? Draft picks are like lottery tickets; if you play you can't win
These numbers come from a GM: 1st round pick's bust 25% of the time, Second round pick and they bust 50% of the time, and 3rd rounders bust 70% of the time, and every round after that it gets worst and worst. So yes, teams and fans overvalued draft picks all the time.
See, but that his heresy for Draftniks funkdat, to listen to the process each yr one would think every draft choice in rd #1 or #2 is a sure fire all pro, when the reality is..they bust out frequently. Which is why the Brandon Marshall trade for Sergio Kindle (who likely will never play in the NFL) and Orlando Franklin (who has injury issues already) was a steal..for us and imho such a trade for a Kyle Orton also makes sense as the likelihood of a #1 or #2 pick busting is far greater then the likelihood that Orton just flops in Miami, but draftniks do not want to hear it. Those stats btw, sort of reveal why the Patriots do what they do on draft day, they know picks bust all of the time so it is better to have several #1 or #2 picks to choose from rather then one moderately low #1 or #2 pick. But that also creates opportunity to sift through the rubble of guys who do not make it in New England that many high draft choices and only so many practice reps to go around, they will miss on some guys who really can play but just did not make it in NE.
lol... YO Funkdat what up homie!!!.. Why do I get a kick out of you calling people by their funky names?..lol