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1st down success key to winning the game: (We will need to improve greatly)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ToddsPhins, May 11, 2011.

  1. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You asked what topics to discuss. I like talking about our defense these days. They're pretty good, haha
     
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  2. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    IMO, no matter who starts at QB for us in 2011, if we don't improve on 1st down, they will struggle. I don't think Orton would have put up a mid 80s QB rating last season, if he were in Henne's place and if we do trade for Orton, and we can't run the ball, he isn't going to do much better than Henne did without a decent run game.
     
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  3. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fair enough, MC. That's your opinion. No need to try and debate the theory of statistical measuring and its relevance.
     
  4. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed.
     
  5. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    See, "Henne supporters" will respect that because there was substance involved. I may or may not disagree, but at least you contributed something to the debate rather than Henne sucks; Henne will never amount to anything; I don't need to give my reasons why because my word is God.

    Contrary to popular belief, I haven't anointed Henne as anything. I don't run around continuously telling Henne non-supporters that they're crazy b/c Chad's a sure fire Pro Bowler etc etc. I merely highlight aspects of the game and our previous offense that I believe show Henne deserves a shot to prove himself in a more favorable circumstance. My beliefs revolve around "not yet giving up on the kid and not prematurely condemning him while he's still in his developmental stage". I also belief that many factors outside of a QB's control can positively or negatively impact his performance, so I like to discuss those specific areas and how they "may" improve our QB play and offense as a whole.
     
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  6. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    The stats were posted because they give us an idea of how we can move forward and prevent history from repeating itself rather than making excuses about the past.
     
  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Glad we agree on something. lol.
     
  8. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Not when they give up too much on 1st down. :smile:
     
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  9. KB21

    KB21 Almost Never Wrong Club Member

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    That's right. The more I look into the advanced stats that sites like footballoutsiders and advanced nfl statistics have put out, the more I'm realizing that these statistics are simply an objective way of measuring what your subjective eyes can't measure.

    Chad Henne had a 76.6 QBR with 12 TDs, and 13 INTs as a starter in 2009. Everyone was excited about his potential at that time. He was the future of the franchise. A year later, after posting a 74.4 QBR with 14 TDS and 18 INTs as a starter, he's now the worst quarterback that has ever put on a Dolphins jersey. What was the difference between the two years?

    The 2010 decline in the running game. Miami wasn't great in 2009 at running the ball, but they were better than they were in 2010.
     
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  10. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    [​IMG]

    Baby, he was born this way!...



    [​IMG]

    I'm your 2011 starting quarterback, *****!
     
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  11. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico New Member

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    There really is nothing to respond to. Someone threw some stats out there, got it, cool.

    If you go back and look I never attacked the OP, I was agreeing with someone else that there is too much bickering about our QB in EVERY thread made on here and that it has gotten annoying.

    I see you've been here a long time, since when did this Delta house become the Omegas?
     
  12. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    IMO the biggest difference from 2009 to 2010 was Henne's expectations. People were expecting a big jump in his play, especially w/ the addition of Marshall. Unfortunately, the run game fell apart and Henne was asked to be the focal point of the offense instead of a facilitator, which was all he was capable of doing at that point in his career.
     
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  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Henne's last season was like the last season of Lost. There were a lot of questions that people wanted answered. He answered some, but not enough to be satisfying.
     
  14. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico New Member

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    Maybe I'm in the minority but I wasn't expecting a huge jump in his numbers. I honestly was expecting about 20 TDs to 12 ints. I think that's why alot of folks are down on him not because they were expecting 30 TDs but because he just didn't improve much from his 12 the year before.

    I think losing Camarillo hurt his numbers too. I know he didn't do much for the Vikes and we have a good WR corps but he was extremely reliable and steady in our offense.

    There might be some interesting analysis: What were Henne's numbers in 09 with Camarillo vs without? IIRC Camarillo missed some games to injury. It could be nothing too though.
     
  15. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    just finished game 6...there was a big jump in his play..very big.
     
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  16. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    we need to stock the stable & compete
     
  17. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    We may have been able to use Camarillo once Hartline went on IR. Though it would not have helped for anyone being a deep threat. IMO, the dropoff from Hartline to his raw rookie replacements had a noticeable effect on Henne's production. We went from 3 viable WR threats to 2. Neither Moore or Wallace was ready to pick up the slack. Maybe next year one or both will step up their game. Too early to tell yet.
     
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  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    IMO, there are 2 important stats linking our lack of disgusting ground game to a losing season, making things virtually possible for any developing QB to overcome.


    One is first down's impact on the success rate of a drive (which this thread is about).

    The second is the ground game's WPA. "Win Probability Added" measures each play in terms of how much it increased or decreased a team’s chances of winning the game.


    Years of research show that an offense is likely to have a failing drive if it can't gain decent yards on first down. It's no secret that our ground game was putrid in this department, especially once inside the opponent's 35 yard line.

    Miami's RunWPA last season was the 3rd WORST in the NFL. This is probably the most telling stat of last year's failure.

    A score of zero represents the break even point.
    A positive number predicts a likelihood of winning (with a higher number translating to a greater likelihood of success).
    A negative number predicts a likelihood of losing (with a higher negative number translating to a greater likelihood of losing.)

    With a 32 team range of -1.46 to 2.25, Miami was a -1.32 (only Cincy's -1.44 and Carolina's -1.46 were worse. Zona was the only other team worse than -1.0.)

    When your ground game posts a number like -1.32 and has consistent trouble gaining decent yards on 1st down, you're likely to have a losing season. These aren't excuses; this is history talking. The only hope to counter is having an offense built around the passing game with a QB like Manning or Brady at the helm. Having an offense designed around the run, an idiot as an OC, and an influx of practice squad guys or players fresh off the street at WR & TE makes it virtually impossible for a QB to overcome the hole that an inept ground game thrust you in.


    That's why we drafted Pouncey; that's why we traded up for Thomas; and that's why we added speed, versatility, and playmaking ability in Gates and Clay.
     
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  19. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Henne sucks; Henne will never amount to anything; I don't need to give my reasons why because my word is God.






































    :tongue2:
     
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  20. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Losing Camarillo def hurt our depth at the position, forcing us to play Wallace, Moore & Curtis, none of whom are NFL caliber WRs. Cam would've allowed Hartline to play in the slot, alleviating some of our seam threat woes, and he could've given any of our guys a breather w/o the dropoff we saw from our 4th & 5th guys. As it was, once Marshall & Hartline went down, we had no depth whatsoever and our 3 wide sets were toothless.

    I dont think 20-12 was a unrealistic goal, it became unrealistic IMO largely b/c our offensive philosophy. Whenever we got into FG range it was ultra conservative time. WC, runs, short passes, etc. We rarely attacked the end zone, we basically played for FGs. Also, Henne had a lot of bad luck INTs last year, WRs falling down, running different routes from what he expected & tipped balls cost him 9 INTs by my count. That stuff happens to all QBs but 9 is higher than the norm and chances are it'll revert back towards the mean next season.
     
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  21. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Loser!!! :lol:
     
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  22. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    :pray:





    ............... wait, are you mocking me? :angry:
     
  23. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Absolutley not! Unless it makes you angry? lol

    I just loved the way you worded it.
     
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  24. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Oh come now Todd, you know I had some fancy schmancy college professor tell me once that you can use stats to prove anything you want. Anyone with eyes can see that is what you are doing here. Anyone with eyeballs can see Henne sucks and no matter what any statistics say, the entire losing 2010 season was all his fault.:tongue2:

    I kid, I kid!!! That is what I do, actually I don't remember much about college, other than smoking a lot of Thai stick and spending a lot of time occupying various administration buildings. ;)
     
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