Every year I try to take my knowledge of the Dolphins and mesh it with the words coming out of our fearless leaders mouths in order to determine where I think they may go in the draft (always keeping in mind that everything they say is being said for competitive advantage). Admittedly, every year I'm wrong...not wrong about who they should take...just wrong about who they do take. I can remember John Avery when I wanted Randy Moss, Jamar Fletcher when I wanted Drew Brees, Eddie Moore when I wanted Anquan Boldin, Ted Ginn when I wanted Dwayne Bowe, Jake Long when I wanted Matt Ryan....we all know the horror stories. Luckily, only one happened on this current regime's watch...and the guy we got is damn good...just not at a position that wins you Super Bowls. That said, what do we know? 1. There needs to be significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball for Sparano and Ireland to keep their job. 2. The defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl. 3. Miami is going to draft speed. 4. Miami is going to improve the offensive line. 5. Neither 2, 3, or 4 matter until Miami fixes number 5...the quarterback situation. Quarterback win Super Bowls. Consider this...since 2004 the following quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl: Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers. The only non-elite guy in the bunch, Eli Manning, needed an all world performance out of his defense and some luck. So...what would I/should they do? I'd go San Diego Chargers. 1. I'd give Chad Henne (Drew Brees) every opportunity to be the player I thought he would be. 2. I'd draft insurance. I'd draft the guy that fits the scheme I am going to run. That begs the question, what scheme are they going to run? I anticipate a run heavy offense predicated on the threat of the vertical game...in order to keep the safeties off the line. Next question, which quarterback can run that offense? 1. Blaine Gabbert? Not so sure. Everything he did was within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. You couple that with his awful performance on 3rd downs, in the 4th quarter, against good teams, and when behind and I'll pass. 2. Cam Newton? Again, he is extremely raw. Could he be great? Absolutely. Does he have the work ethic and maturity to be great? Tough to say. Some of his transgressions as an only slightly younger man give me pause. I'd pass. 3. Jake Locker? Much like Newton, I don't see the precision passing skills or ACCURACY I think Miami will covet. I just keep seeing a more athletic Kyle Boller type with this guy. 4. Ryan Mallett? I think he is absolutely ideal. Big, strong quarterback with amazing throw making ability...especially deep down field. Plus, he has much better accuracy, poise, and mobility than the "he said so I'll say it" media. 5. Christian Ponder? This is a guy I like alot. A guy that I think could very easily be the answer for Miami because of his intelligence, mobility, and accuracy. My only concerns for him are twofold. First, his injuries to his throwing shoulder are terribly concerning in light of our recent issues with Chad Pennington. Second, I'm just not convinced he would be able to drive the ball down field like they are going to be looking for. In essence, if Miami takes him I'm okay with it...I just don't see Miami pulling the trigger because of health and arm strength concerns. 6. Colin Kaepernick? This guy is the wild card. Arm strength - check. Medical - check. Size - check. Mobility - check. Work ethic - check. Accuracy - check...I think. This guy is the one that could surprise. In essence, if they take him, I'm all for it. So, reading the tea leaves, I think Miami has to fix the quarterback position. I see Mallett or Kaepernick. Mallett if throw making, deep accuracy, and ease of transition are paramount. Kaepernick if mobility is a critical factor...and if they can wait a year. All that said...if history is any indication...they'll draft a tackle...and we'll continue to waste away in the world of boring/non winning NFL football. Here's to hoping they finally get it!
FINALLY THE ROCK has found someone on this board that he agrees 100% with... We need to stick together, because I predict that the Chad Henne backers, followed by the Mallett haters and then the Trade Back people will be here in... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1...
I get the vibe Ghetti that the regime, and the offensive cordinator, wants a qb with a full skillset...I dont think Mallett brings that to the table...Ckap and Dalton do..
and who in your opinion is in this draft? Iam doubling up on the position this year..and iam not willing to sell the farm to move up to the first or 2nd pick to aquire Newton or Gabbert, so, whats your plan?
Not sure I see the need to double-up at QB with draft picks only. To be quite honest, I'd like to see what we have in Chad Henne in not Dan Henning's offense, thus I'm going to upgrade his protection and add weapons for him. However, if you want to spend a pick on a QB, in the first round I'd be inclined to grab Christian Ponder. But, IMO, as I said I think Chad Henne could be the guy, I think I'd try and upgrade what's around him and grab someone like Pat Devlin, Greg McElroy, or T.J. Yates later in the draft. Maybe you can add Andy Dalton to that group too. The way I see it, from last year, in a bad offense with a bad OL, and a regressed running game, we went 7-7 with Chad Henne as our starting QB. Obviously he didn't play the Bears game, and the entire team mailed in that last Patriots game, so I'm not going to blame Chad for that one. A couple of breaks (the Steelers game, Jason Allen not getting abused the first Jets game) and Chad Henne's 9-5...but that plays both ways as well, he could've been 5-9. But, all things considered, I think a re-commitment to the running game, and an offense that's capable of playing outside the "20 yard box" is what Chad Henne is suited for - much like Mark Sanchez is in the Jets scheme. I'm not comfortable enough to make a move for Gabbert, Newton, Mallet, and I'm still looking to trade back before I up and pick Christian Ponder at 15. I just don't think there's a surefire "franchise" QB in that bunch, plain and simple. I'm also not one to throw resources at developmental projects like Pat White, and personally, I just think guys like Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker, Ricky Stanzi are going to be drafted before they normally would be based on the QBs available, and I think all those guys would have to sit a year, or two, before they're going to get you where Chad Henne already has Miami, especially with the lockout potentially eating up rookie mini-camps, OTAs, and maybe some of training camp. I'd rather work with putting something around the devil I know than spend a high pick on someone who has a lot of question marks, which let's face it, could be said about Gabbert, Newton, Mallet, Ponder, Locker, Kaepernick, and Stanzi. I'd rather develop my own guy, and draft a developmental guy later on, at least this year. Obviously I think you have to take a serious look at what happens with veteran QBs once free agency occurs, but I'm just not sold on any of the QBs in the draft being any better in 2 years than where Miami's at with Chad Henne already. I'd rather take a QB that went 7-7 and see how he takes to a new system, with an improved OL (why I'm a proponent of drafting Mike Pouncey), and a re-vamped running game. I'll take the odds of that team getting to 10-6 or 11-5 way more than I would any rookie QB from this year's class coming in and taking Miami to 10-6 or 11-5, again, potentially without rookie camps, OTAs, part of training camp, etc.
Ronin, I can respect and agree with that logic. We have a shot to make the playoffs next year even with Henne. We have less of a shot with one of the rookies at the helm..... and even if we draft one, they'll probably sit behind Chad their first year. The 2nd aspect I look at is development time. One way to look at it is: Why use a high draft pick on a "developmental guy" this year who might not be ready till 2013 when we can draft Oline or RB this year with immediate results...... and then take a more "NFL ready" QB in 2012 who will also be ready by 2013? <that is if Henne doesn't prove himself> Either way the QBs will be ready to contribute around the same time, however one way allows us to be more competitive in 2011 than the other.
Well, here is the thing with the quarterbacks in this draft. The guys that everyone has been convinced are first round talents and legitimate franchise quarterbacks are little more than fools gold at this point. None of the four that are always mentioned as first round talents are legitimate first round quarterbacks, nor are they they best quarterbacks in this draft. But the media parrots their names, so some are convinced that they are legimate. They aren't. All four have tremendous red flags, whether it is the fact that Cam Newton is more of a runner than a passer, Blaine Gabbert has happy feet and is a dink and dunk quarterback, Ryan Mallet's off the field issues, or Jake Locker's inaccuracy and lack of feel for the pocket, these are legitimate concerns that should downgrade them if people were actually paying attention to what matters. Teams like the Patriots are going to let teams like Miami go for the strong armed, mobile guys while they sit back and get value by getting a guy like Ricky Stanzi, who will be a better starter than any of the four that is always mentioned at the top of the draft, in the 3rd or 4th round.
past experiences seem to affect how you Aquire players, not me, I'll go 2nd round in this draft for a QB, regardless of Pat white..Theres no shame here..We have a desperate situation at this stage, we have Pennington..Henne..Thigpen..2 not signed.. Doublin up on the position is not a bad idea..def with free agent/draft pick scenario, if not 2 draft picks...I wouldn't be mad at Irish..
I read the tea leaves and they tell me you will find love this year. It had nothing about the Dolphins
I could see this draft ending up like another 2003 draft...... where 3 of the 4 first round QBs busted.
Id be happy with any quarterback to challenge Henne, im resigned to him starting, and any of them will be decent backup
My point is, there's no reason to double-up at the position for the sake of doubling-up at the position, regardless of draft picks used, when none of the QBs are really all that good AND they're going to lose some portion of their offseason to learn the playbook and other intricacies of an NFL offense. I'd prefer to bring in a veteran, whoever that may be, and draft a guy later on like McElroy or Yates that won't be in the mix this year anyway and let him learn rather than throw someone into the fire who doesn't have the whole offseason. We've spent countless resources bringing in veteran QBs in the past and many of those haven't worked out well, but I'm for bringing in another one this year to compete with Henne, so I don't see how you can say past experiences affect how I'd acquire players if I were GM. I just don't think the draft class is what it's made out to be, much like KB posted.
Iam not moving up in the 1st round for one of the top 3, because I dont believe that they deserve that kind of sacrifice.. so for me its not doubling up for the sake of it, its because there are QB's that I like after those..and of course if it didnt fall properly, I wouldn't be doubling up.. When I mentioned that about past experience affecting your current draft strategy, I only said that because I felt that because of some of your comments, that the 2nd round scares you when it comes to a selecting a QB because of what we've done that the past 2 seasons without much success.
Thanks for clearing up the first point. As for the draft, it scares me taking a part-time player, like Pat White, with a 2nd round pick. That said, I'm not high on guys like Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, Ricky Stanzi, and especially not taking them in round 2, as I don't feel they'd bring to the table what we already have in Henne - this year in particular. I'm more compelled to bring a veteran somehow to compete with Henne than spending another 2nd round pick on someone that's not as talented as Henne already is. I'd rather take a guy later on that can learn from said veteran and Henne, and become my long-term backup down the road, as I just don't think the QB talent in this draft is as good as it's been in past drafts, or potentially even next year's draft if underclassmen declare with guys like Luck, Barkley, Lindley, Weeden, Foles, Cousins, Jones, etc.
IMO, what scares me the most is there is nobody on this staff that could recoginize a good QB if the kid was standing right in front of them. Thats possibility of reality scares the heck out of me.
Me too. I think CK said in another thread, but I'm not so sure Tony Sparano getting his hands on a young QB is a good thing. For all his studies and such about how to improve the offense, sometimes I feel like he just works longer hours trying "grind" away at problems rather than actually realizing how to fix them. I think he works harder (meaning longer hours), not smarter (getting to the root of the problem) and just doesn't see things that are apparent to outsiders. That's a bit off topic of QBs, but it's one of the reasons why I didn't want him back.
I agree, problem here is they find and uncover an issue of what is going wrong and have no clue, other then screaming , of how to fix the issue. Another problem I see or my opinion , is they spend a lot of time nit picking on little things and devote hours to correcting meaningless crap. Its been hinted more then once that this staff is not in the mold of building confidence in players. Instead is built in such a way to tear players down to a level that after awhile all the players hear is BLAH BLAH BLA H BLAH BLAHBLAH when the coaches open their mouths. Sooner or later they will learn that when all the players suck because they cannot do things the way the staff is teaching may really mean that the method is not being taught correctly or simply put, the wrong methods are beng taught. Most of our players are from the larger D1 programs in the nation. For the most part, they were all starters. I refuse to believe they were taught to be dumb at these programs because most of them, programs, have had a ton more success then the Dolphins have ever seen. Think about that for a little bit. There have been subtle hints this staff is a hairs width short of being plain ol abusive. The way some players regressed, others just checked out and still others became numb to everyting ? Makes sense to me. Daboll, IMO, fits the same mold.
I can remember asking friends when he was first brought in what it was that made people think Bill Parcells had a good eye for talent? I also remember asking friends were the evidence was that his theories on roster construction actually can bring about a Super Bowl. Let's be honest....it's pretty clear those concerns were warranted. So, why do I bring this up? Because he isn't calling the shots anymore....Jeff Ireland is. Personally, I think Ireland gets it. He knows this is a quarterback driven league. He knows speed kills. He knows the Parcells team building theories are almost as antiquated a Joe Paterno's theories on where to recruit from. He understands you can't win with either. Bottom line, he will do his best fix the problem...and I have reason to believe he gets it based on his statements about needing speed on this team...something us fans have been well aware of for years and years. Now we just have to hope he has figured out the other thing intelligent fans have known for years and years....you need a quarterback (I still feel sick when I think about the "Lost Years" with Jay Fiedler). Without one, the Super Bowl is just a pipe dream. You get what you pay for. Time to pay the piper and draft some legit upper level talent at the most important position on the field.
I know I don't, and who knows if Ireland would consider Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett, and Christian Ponder upper-level talent. I'd like to think Ireland is smart enough to realize this. Just hypothetically, if Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley were in this draft, where would Gabbert and Newton get drafted? The QB demand definitely outweighs the supply this year.
I admittedly haven't watched enough of Matt Barkley...but I'm not sure he is anywhere in the conversation with Luck. Beyond that...it is my humble opinion that none of these guys are a Sam Bradford slam dunk type. However, it is also my opinion that Gabbert, Newton, Mallett, Ponder, Kaepernick, and Locker have first round physical skills....whether they have first round intangibles is another question. Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, so on and so forth had some of the same knocks we see in this class. Let's be honest, one or two of these guys is going to be elite someday. It'll all depend on the evaluation of their intangibles and mental makeup....something we can only speculate on based on what we've heard from the "he said it so I'll say it too" media. To me, independent of the rumors which I can't substantiate, Ryan Mallett is a special talent and one that could really make a difference in the scene I believe Miami is going to put it.
Andrew Luck would be the 1st pick. He is a far better prospect than anyone in this draft currently is.
Agreed KB. That's why I'm very wary of the Gabbert, Newton, and Mallet (and for the reasons you provided in your previous post). I feel like Ponder is the one of the 1st round QBs that'd I draft, and I feel like he most closely fits what Ireland and Sparano are looking for. I'm just not sure how much of an upgrade Ponder would be to what Chad Henne already is, and that's why my preference would be to bring in a veteran to compete with Henne this year and draft a developmental guy later on to compete in the future with whoever the QB is.
I agree with you on Ponder possibly being the type of player they want from an intelligence, mobility, and accuracy standpoint. Where I start to doubt the fit is when I consider the arm and shoulder injuries and the rumors that he lacks the arm strength to really drive the deep ball. Now, I know the injuries are what they say they are...the deep ball I can't say for sure because I don't have enough games to look at. If Miami moves on Ponder I am fine with it...I just don't see it with the injury history. Again, I still think Mallett would be a significant, significant upgrade on Henne...but I have no problem admitting that if these intangible rumors are legit...Miami will go in a different direction. If that happens I think Kaepernick moves to the top of my list. Miami needs to fix the quarterback. Nothing matters until they do that....and the only way that will happen is through the draft or through a miraculous turn of events on Henne. I'm not convinced Henne is not the guy....but I'm about 60% convinced he's not the guy. That leads me to believe the draft is where they have to go.
I think if Stanzi would have lead his team to a January bowl game, his stock would be up there (stockwise) with the likes of Ponder and Locker. Stanzi improved greatly from 2009 to 2010 so I would be fine with taking him in the 4th round.
if we draft kaepernick b4 rd 4 or locker b4 rd 4 i know this f.o. can't identify qb talent. i'm on board for ponder,dalton,stanzi, maybe mallet but those are late 1st or early 2nd rd talent. so they may have to take one @15. if were going to double up give devlin or yates or locker or kaepernick very late ie rd 6 or later.i don't even know if i want gabbert or newton @15 either.
Mallet and Ponder depend mainly on how they check out. If their issues are cleared up they're note late first round talent especially Mallet. If Joe Flacco can get picked late first round playing where he did a guy that wrecked the SEC can get picked 15.
