Greg McElroy Scores High.....Really High On Wonderlic Test

My bad

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQPVv4pafN8

 

To me his arm looks to be a lot stronger than Penny's. Even before Penny's injuries.

 

Was going to say arm strength didn't seem to be an issue there

 

If his arm is stronger than Penny's then why is he a 4th-5th round pick?

 

That seems like an illogical statement

 

It was a question

 

ya so did charlie frye.... and we see how good he is lol he has one of the highest ever

 

I don't know. Why was Brady a 6th rounder, Brees a 3rd rounder and why was Marino the 6th QB selected in his draft? I can go on and on with these examples.

The guy completed more than 65% of his passes, with over 8 YPA, 37TD and only 9 INT's in his two starting seasons. He's smart as all hell and works his butt off. I'm not saying he'll be another Brady, Brees or Marino, but to think he can play in the NFL at a high level is not far fetched.

 

He had a 38... I doubt that's one of the highest "ever" being that there are 11 staring QB's in the league right now with scores of 30 or higher.

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick 48
2. Alex Smith 40
3. Eli Manning 39
4. Matt Stafford 38
5. Tony Romo 37
6. Aaron Rodgers 35
6. Matt Leinart 35
8. Tom Brady 33
9. Matt Ryan 32
10. Matt Schaub 31
11. Philip Rivers 30

 

Brees was a 2nd rounder, Brady was super tiny and people thought Marino might have smoked cocaine and wasn't very successful in his senior year.

 

Brees (he was 2nd, my mistake) was thought to have a weak arm. Brady was thought to have a weak arm. Marino did have the cocaine rumor, but some thought he wasn't smart enough.

My point is, it really doesn't matter to me where scouts "predict" a player to be drafted. They are wrong a lot.

 

Brees also was too short.

I am seriously asking, what are the reasons why McElroy is looked to be one of the a 4th to 6th round pick.

 

I seriously don't know. The kid, since high school, has lost 2 games in which he started as QB. TWO. He won a NC, has good size (6'2", 225), is smart, can run pretty well, accurate, and works hard. I have no clue why he is projected to go so low. All I know is that I think he has a great shot of becoming a pretty good QB in the NFL. Watch his film...does he look like his arm is that weak?

 

The only way I'd be happy about us picking this guy in the later rounds is if the front office / coaches have confidence in Chad Henne. Otherwise, we better start thinking about making a serious investment in the QB position. I don't know much about Mcelroy, but I do know that many more times than not later round QB picks, hell even 2nd round QB picks do not pan out in the NFL.

 

As of last season-

1st round QB's

Peyton Manning---Great
Philip Rivers---Very Good
Ben Roethlesburger---Average
Aaron Rodgers---Very Good
Eli Manning---Average
Donovan McNabb---Good
Carson Palmer---Good
Joe Flacco---Average
Matt Ryan---Good
Jay Cutler---Good
Matt Stafford---TBD (To be determined)
Sam Bradford---TBD
Vince Young---Bust (May be able to turn it around)
Mark Sanchez---TBD
Jason Campbell---TBD
Josh Freeman---TBD
Alex Smith---TBD


After 1st round-

Drew Brees---Very Good
Tom Brady---Very Good
Brett Favre---Great
Matt Hasselbeck---Good
Tony Romo---Good
Matt Schaub---Good
Kevin Kolb---TBD
Matt Moore---TBD
Trent Edwards---Sucks
Chad Henne---TBD
Jake Delhomme---Once was good
David Garrard---Average
Derek Anderson---Average
Kyle Orton---Average
Matt Cassel---Average



So, IMO, there are 10 QB's in the 1st round and 9 in the 2nd ranked average or higher. I think there is just as much of a chance of getting an average or above in the later rounds as there is in the first round.

 

Where to start with the problems here. First is that you're comparing every 1st round QB for the past few years to a small selection of late round QBs. Your list ignores a lot of busts, e.g. John Beck and players that washed out of the league that have never even had a chance to take a snap in an NFL game.

The statement that you have just as good a chance to get an "average or above" QB in later rounds as the first is just plain not true and it's basically saying you put no stock in the evaluation of teams on the QB position.

Edit:
Ok, I see what you are doing here. You're taking all starting QBs in the league last season. At least I think. Still the fact that there are just as many first round QBs (actually more) with a much smaller sample size than late round QBs proves right away that 1rst round QBs overall have better success rates than late round QBs.

 

Since 1998, 33 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Each of these players was expected to be their team's QB in the foreseeable future.

In 2009, only 18 of those were starters for their respective teams. 12 of those 18 were drafted in 2005 or later. Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell are all either busts or just not good. And, it’s too soon to tell with Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman (and a person could throw in a few others as well).

So, if you eliminate the three QBs selected in the first round of the 2009 draft, you could say that 14 out of 30 QBs became "franchise" quarterbacks to some degree and even that's being nice. That’s less than a fifty percent hit rate – on what is typically a huge investment.

Now, saying that, there are many reasons as to why second round quarterbacks also fail at a high rate. Of course, as with some of the 1st Rounders, some just aren't good. But, IMO, because of the smaller financial commitment that is required for a second rounder teams are too quick to replace them when given the opportunity to get a blue-chipper in the first round. (Drew Brees would seem to fall into this category).

Sometimes, when new management is put in place, they want their own players and see no problem giving up on a a cheap 2nd rounder.

 

Or spend millions/big contract on a player with maybe more upsides than McElroy, but just as many unproven questions.

Face it there is no Peyton Manning or Aaron Rogers in this draft. All of the QB's have a list of negatives and are still incomplete QB's. Rather risk a second day pick opposed to a most likely first round bust (history shows more first round busts than starters).

Last time we were in this situation, everyone thought Miami would take Brady Quinn. Not that Ginn worked out, but neither has Quinn.

Miami should either trade down and acquire more picks and/or solid veteran or draft an OL/TE/RB with the 15th pick

 

There is a serious flaw in the line of thinking that says we need to draft a qb in the first round and that is there has to be one worthy of being taken then. I would say that dating back to when we drafted Ronnie there have been only two qbs we had a legit shot art drafting. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, but neither were sure things. This year I would say that there are maybe two at best worthy of the first round and both will be fine when we pick.

 

Let's just look at the numbers. So since 1998, 33 QBs have been selected in the first round. So approximately .42 of them, going by your numbers have been a success. That's the success rate of all QBs taken in round 1. Now let's look at the other rounds. Let's assume that in every other round of those drafts for the past 14 years, an average of 1.5 QBs were taken. To be honest I'm not sure if 1.5 is a conservative or liberal estimate but let's just go with it (if someone want's to find an actual count, go for it!). That would be 126 QBs taken in rounds 2 or later, and this figure doesn't count undrafted QBs. So if we use the 15 QBs in your previous post (let me know if there are others since 1998, not sure if we're missing any) that translates out to a success rate of approximately .12 %. You see where I'm going with this? Sure there might be some reasons why later round prospects wash out aside from talent. But overall, first round QBs have the much better success rate and the largest factor in this is the talent level of the QBs taken in those rounds. Teams and scouts earn their money. It isn't a crap shoot.

Edit: Sorry for awhile there it looked like I modified your post. I screwed up and posted half of my post in your quote brackets.

 

From 1992 to 2001 there were 19 QB's selected in the 1st round.

Klinger---Crap
Brown---Crap
Maddox---Bad


Bledsoe---Very good
Mirer---Crap

Shuler---Crap
Dilfer---Below Average

McNair---Good
Collins---Good

Druckenmiller---Crap

Manning---Great
Leaf---Crap

Couch---Crap
McNabb---Very Good

A. Smith---Crap
Culpepper---Average
McNown---Crap

Pennington---Average (Bust if you factor in injuries)

Vick---Crap in all but one season


12 of those 19 are below average or worse.

 

Vick crap in all but one season? I won't even bother with that. Why are you going backwards? That doesn't really prove much when we are talking about today. The league made a drastic change in the enforcement of pass interference rules after the 2005 season which has made the passing game much more prevalent in today's NFL. Since then I would argue it's become easier for rookies QBs to adjust to the speed of the NFL game. It has also made the value of the QB, which was already the most important position on a team that much more important. So really, the years post 2004 are what we really want to look at. And since you're still not comparing the success rate to the rest of the QBs taken in later rounds it really does nothing to prove the point that you seem to be trying to make which is later round QBs have the same chances of being good as 1st round QBs.

 

Vick is a horrible QB.

Going backwards? Earlier you complained that my sample size wasn't big enough.... lol


My point, is that many QB's taken in the later rounds pan out fine and a team shouldn't just box themselves into the first round when picking one.

 

That's your opinion and you're welcome to it, but it's an opinion that I can almost guarantee every scout earning a living in the NFL would disagree with.

I said your sample size was too small, not the period (time frame). You were using only a select few late round QBs to compare to the success rate of first rounders.

And my point is that if a team truly has a need for a franchise QB, history and statistics have shown that the better odds fall with taking one early. I have no problem with teams taking a QB in later rounds. But that should be reserved for teams looking for backups or project players to be eventual replacements for already successful veterans.

 

10 years in the league (of course two of those rotting in prison): 55% completion rate, averages 149 YPG passing, has less than 15,000 total passing yards, and averages about 11 TD's passes per seasons played on top of he has led the league twice in fumbles and is usually up near the top in his other seasons.

His stats, not my opinion, proves that he SUCKS.


And my point, once again, is that ANY team looking for a QB shouldn't just look to the 1st round.

 

chances of him playing like crap is increased.

 

Not sure if this is aimed at me or not, but the only thing I maintain is that later round QBs historically and statistically tend to bust out much more than QBs taken in the first round. This makes perfect sense considering teams pay general managers, scouts, etc a ton of money to evaluate QBs and determine their worth and when they should be drafted. This doesn't mean Mcelroy or any other later round QB will necessarily play like crap. It just means that chances are if he's determined to only be worthy of taking in the 4th round he probably doesn't have the skillset that earlier drafted QBs have and will therefore have less chance of success. Making him a riskier option. Sure, there's a chance he becomes the next Tom Brady. A very slim chance.

 

Here's the thing about your list: It only focuses on last year. Did McNabb do well last year? No. But did he not have a great career? Was he not a multi-time Pro Bowler?

As a matter of fact, more than half of the people on the list of first rounders was/is, at the very least, a good QB when you look at their whole career. And what's worse? Most of the QB's weren't even taking in the same draft.

 

Just like this Number 1.

1. JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Year: 2007
Selected: #1 overall by the Oakland Raiders


Too many people have made the mistake of underestimating JaMarcus Russell over the past few years. You can cite his poor work ethic and failure to learn the Oakland offense, but you’re still missing the point. Russell wasn’t a football player, he was a thief masquerading around in a 6-6, 260-pound body that was designed to look like an NFL quarterback.
Think about it: Sans mask and gun, this guy managed to flat out rob Al Davis on national television of more than $39 million.
Bernie Madoff went to jail and John Dillinger wound up dead. But Russell has managed to walk the streets a free man, with no hassle whatsoever from federal, state or local authorities.
We were just too dumb to notice.
Who they could have had: Does it really matter?

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Top-20-Biggest-Draft-Busts.html

There are 6 1st Round QB's on this list.

 

Leaf
Carr
Couch
George


More QB's who were #1 overall picks....and BUSTS!

 

Check out that link bro. It a list of whose who.

 

Name me a time when a scout has come away from any prospect and say to themselves that there are no negatives about this prospect, let me know. So, the QBs have negatives? Guess what, so does every other prospect in the draft. Going by that logic, we should just not participate in the draft at all.

Also, know one knew there weas an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning in in their respective drafts until they actually stepped out on the field for a few years. I, for one, didn't think Manning would be so great after his first year. Did you?

That's like saying we shouldn't have taken Vontae Davis because of Anthony Cromartie.

That TE, OL, and RB could also bust. And, as we learned by picking up past Vets, a vet could flop.

 

So what? Compare that to quarterback who were taken in the 4th round. 4th round quarterbacks are successful when they become career back ups.

 

The draft can be a crap shoot. What round was Tom Brady drafted in? I don't think he is a back up.

 

All due respect but I think you're missing the point. Sure the history of the NFL is littered with first round QB busts. There is no such thing as a sure thing, not even at the 1st overall pick. But historically, the success rate for QBs taken in the first round is much higher than QBs taken in rounds 2 or later.

So I guess I'm just not sure what the point is of pointing out Jamarcus Russell or Tom Brady. Because Al Davis made a terrible pick and Jamarcus Russell didn't work out on a terrible team, that should scare every team in the NFL away from picking a QB in round 1? Since the Pats got extremely lucky with Tom Brady who plays in one of the best offensive systems in the NFL, that means any team can find a gem at QB in the 7th round? Since 2005, 5 of the last 7 superbowl winning teams spent 1st round draft picks on their QB. I'm sure they are pretty happy with the investment.

There will always be risk in any first round pick. But the potential rewards make the risk worth it. This doesn't mean we absolutely have to take a QB in round 1. But if our FO has pegged any of those guys as potential franchise QBs, and they do not have confidence in Chad Henne, they better pull the trigger if given the chance.

 

Nobody is saying that a team shouldn't draft a QB in the 1st round. Just that no team should restrict their QB drafting to only the 1st round. When you lessen the already shallow QB pool you may miss out on your Brady or Unitas or Starr or Favre or Brees.

 

The problem when a QB in the first round flops you can always play the we could have had that guy game. Like the fact that in 2007 the Raiders took Russell who busted. They could have had any player, one pick behind them Calvin Johnson was drafted.

We are sadly haunted by the thoughts of the John Becks, Pat Whites, and Chad Henne 2nd round picks. How can you blame any Miami fan that doesn't want a QB in the 2nd round or later?? When it comes down to it, the whole thing is random. There are guys that have all the talent in the world in college and never put it together, there are guys that look like 6th round talent that turn out to be great QB's.

 

You can say that for any position