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My first Mock Draft

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by padre31, Jan 30, 2011.

  1. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Hartline is the beneficiary of Brandon Marshall...... but more importantly, what is Marshall the beneficiary of due to Hartline? Absolutely nothing..... and that's the point. Maximizing our #1 WR should be the focus, not Brian Hartline. His yards don't mean that much b/c much of them aren't impact yards.... they're just yards.

    We're dealing with a collective performance, not individual stats. It's about how the collective maximizes each other's play, and Hartline's play only really helps himself. If he's the #2 for a "long time", then we will never be as productive as we can be.

    Brian's not a reliable vertical threat (which we need since Marshall & Bess arent either); b/c he doesn't threaten defenses vertically, help doesn't truly help open up the offense; he doesn't give Marshall, Fasano, Bess, and our backs more space underneath to make plays in the passing game; he's not a big play guy; he's not a true redzone threat; he does a lot of little things well, but that doesn't make him a #2; it makes him a reliable #3 or #4.

    As a #2 he's holding us back and does not properly compliment Marshall, Bess, or Fasano. He's a possession receiver added to the mass collective of possession guys we already have. Both Bess & Marshall are more important than Hartline, so they aren't going anywhere..... which makes Brian the odd man out b/c this team MUST have a 3rd WR who can consistently do the things that they can not (and this guy needs a good rapport with our QB which means he should be a #3 rather than a #4.


    if they had such a good eye, they wouldn't have let Armstrong go in the first place. :wink2:

    Give those guys time? We don't have that luxury in case you haven't noticed..... unless you like putting a QB behind the 8 ball. No offense.
     
  2. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Brian is a 4th rounder who had ZERO competition behind him. Of course he'll rack up yards as an uncontested #2, especially when our TEs combined for the 4th lowest reception totals in the NFL. Any decent #3 or #4 receiver in the NFL would catch 600+ yards as a #2 opposite Marshall and Bess.

    If Greg Little or Jerrel Jernigan were on this team, they would take Hartline's job half way through the season, and he'd never get it back..... as would a number of FAs and draftees. Then tell me how many potential 1000 yard seasons Brian would have as a #4 b/c he's not good enough to win the #2 job back.

    If we're going to more 3-4 WR formations, then we'll need someone to compete with Hart & Bess. And it's pretty obvious that we need playmakers. I'm not sure how you can equate grabbing a late round pick (or waiting around for Wallace and Moore to develop) to finding a "playmaker". I don't play favorites, and I won't draft some scrub just to ensure that precious Brian remains the #2. You draft Jernigan, Young, or Little and let the best man win..... but I wouldn't put my money on Hartline.

    But maybe I'm missing something, so please feel free to tell me how Hartline is a good #2 for this team and a great compliment to our offense (outside of using yardage stats).
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well you bring up a couple of points:

    -If they could identify Armstrong, why would they suddenly be unable to identify the 'next" Armstrong?
    -We have limited resources as it is, Hartline was on pace for 1k yds, why would we give up on him again?

    I will put forth the notion that the Wr's are fine, it is Henne who is the issue, his deep accuracy is just not good enough to make use of a Wr with pure speed, recall Ginn had no problem getting open Deep, the problem was Henne rarely throws the ball deep.

    So why not upgrade the running game rather than add a Wr that Henne cannot use anyway?
     
  4. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    We'd be foolish to not sign Richie which forces us to use a one of our 2 top picks on a stupid Center who may never start. Richie needs to be signed so that we can address the rest of the offense. If we don't sign him, the we get even worse on our Oline with Berger and a rookie with an injury history..... not to mention this rookie Center prevents us from upgrading our lackluster, boring skill positions.

    It seems like your entire approach is to either look for guys at depth who may eventually grow into starting roles...... or to turn CFL and FA stones looking for hidden gems. I don't agree with that. We need impact guys and playmakers, and we need them ASAP before our offense completely downs.

    I agree with Carter and Charles Clay b/c the TE class is weak. I'd prefer to grab a stud in FA or "possibly" Rudolph if we trade back if he represents the best value on the board.
     
  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Foolish is getting into Cap trouble with such a young team, not foolish is refusing to overpay a player who bounced around the last couple of years.



    Hmm, my approach is to fix the running game first and foremost, if we cannot run the ball, we will not win, everything else is secondary to that consideration.
     
  6. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    "Really good WR corps"? Which team were you watching? :tongue2: Marshall, Bess, Fasano, and Hartline are good on their own, but combined, they're pieces to different puzzles. And Wallace & Moore have showed enough to skip drafting a guy to compete with them? Not sure I agree there.

    Titus Young or Jernigan make the world of football sense considering we have no reliable vertical threat, little explosiveness, a lack of scoring potential, and a #3 and #4 who have proved nothing so far other than that they're unreliable. How is your ground game going to open up when you're keeping us in the 20 yard box b/c defenses don't respect us vertically? How do you plan on getting Marshall the ball to where he's not tackled immediately?
     
  7. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    My point is we let go of Armstrong, so obviously we didn't "identify" anything about him, b/c if we were right about him we would've kept him.


    You don't have to give up on Hartline to make him a #4 who rotates in and provides valuable depth which a 4th round pick is likely to be doing. It's not like we spent a top pick on him.

    Here's one way how it works: You upgrade Hart at #2 with someone who can threaten a defense deep, can give Marshall more space to make plays, and is a better threat to score.

    You move Hart to the slot on 1st & 2nd down which is when he picks up the bulk of his yards (as he's virtually a non-factor on 3rd down). His quickness & suddenness would be an asset here b/c he can stretch the field better than Bess can, which, combined with a vertical #2 would really help open up 1st and 2nd down for us. Hence Marshall and the ground game would have more space to make plays on 1st and 2nd down b/c defenses would have to defend the entire field rather than our 20 yard box.

    Bess would rotate in on 3rd down b/c that's where the bulk of his production comes from. Football has 4 downs, not just 1, so people have to realize that guys may be beneficial on certain downs while insignificant on others. Bess, for instance, is a star on 3rd down but is not much of a factor on 1st and 2nd.

    On 4 WR sets, they'd both be on the field.

    Right now, Bess & Hartline on the field at the same time do not allow us to maximize 1st and 2nd down. What I'm suggesting is no different than having a 2 down LB so that the defense can maximize the position's productiveness on all 3 downs. If you combine Bess & Hartline as one slot WR, you maximize the position's potential IMO..... while a better #2 maximizes the #2 position.... and both of these upgrades combined will help maximize our ground game, Marshall, and TE play.

    There needs to be some synergy here..... more balance..... more players complimenting each other..... more space created for Marshall & the ground game.
     
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  8. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I will continue to disagree with the notion that Henne "can't throw deep" and that "Hartline is a deep threat". Henne didn't have a problem throwing deep in college.

    He's not Pennington..... he's not the guy with pinpoint accuracy who will consistently drop it in the bucket like Penny to where Chad & Hartline would be a good fit in a vertical timing offense together.

    He's Henne..... he's a strong armed QB who can out-throw coverage like few QBs in the NFL can. This is an asset that we dont utilize. When you have a guy like that, you need a WR who can outrun coverage so that all Henne needs to do is chuck it deep and let the receiver track it down and run under it (just like Wallace does with Ben and DeSean does with Vick). The other alternative is getting a physical presence with decent speed like Braylon Edwards or Vincent Jackson who can outplay just about any CB he's matched against if he's in single coverage to where you can throw it up to him and he's gonna either come down with it or have it be incomplete. Marshall isn't that guy. Hartline does not play to Henne's strengths, so I'm not sure why it's surprising that they're not a good vertical tandem.

    Hartline is a possession receiver, not a speed guy. Henne needs SOMEONE on the darn field who can allow him to actually use his cannon arm, and Brian isn't it.
     
  9. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    We spent over $50 million on Grove & Smiley...... so I have a hard time believing that Richie is a Cap risk.




    I'm not sure how you think we're going to improve the ground game by playing Berger & a rookie at Center. Center is a hugely important position in this division. If Richie can hold his own against the big NTs as he's shown last year, then he needs to be resigned.
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Enter Pat Turner.


    To me we cannot afford duplication by using draft choices on picks that do not fill immeadiate needs, Hartline has a 15ypc avg, he improved this year, and more importantly, he does not return kicks, he would not make a good #4 Wr nor should he.

    Wait a minute there cowboy, you ignore the running game, take a Wr that you really do not need, then theorize that the whole offense is fixed?

    Not by a longshot, in Club I broke down what happened to the offense in 2010 and it boiled down to one thing, the running game collapsed, Henne was pretty much the same Qb he had been in 09 only with 20 yds more per game passing, the running game produced .5 td's per game, in 09 it was more like 1.5 per game.


    Mainly because we ran two Wr base looks, if we go three wides Bess sees the field more often.


    I'll believe that one when I see it.

    Or we need to fix the running game and get better play from the Qb position, notice I said Henne had not changed very much from 09 to 10, we added Marshall and Hartline surpassed his rookie totals, the problem was #7, no one threw deep passes with less success than Chad Henne did in 2010.
     
  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well no, Grove and Smiley were cut and there was no cap hit, now it matters.
     
  12. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    huh? Proves my point that we don't necessarily understand what we're doing at WR.




    if he wouldn't make a good #4, then why the heck would he make a good #2. Again, all you're giving is stats. How many TDs? How many 1st down conversions? How many game changing plays other than for the other team on a fumble? How many extra yards and TDs does he allow Marshall to have? I could go on all day here.


    How am I ignoring the running game? Am I missing something? Do we only have 1 draft pick and no FA? Only you think we don't need the WR.... sorry, but you're wrong.

    you dont think us playing in a 20 yard box didn't put added pressure on the ground game b/c we had no one to threaten defenses deep and stretch the field? You don't think having 2 crappy undrafted rookies on the field didn't affect the ground game?

    I'll repeat myself. Bess does NOT maximize our offense on 1st down..... and Hartline does not maximize it on 3rd down. If you'd like to keep our overall potential restricted, then just say so. lol.

    Bess on 1st down: 225 yards, 10.2 ave, 25% 1st downs, long of 23 yards, 61% completions, 73 YAC. (This is virtually insignificant)
    Bess on 3rd down: 299 yards, 10.7 ave, 49% 1st downs, long of 23 yards, 65% completions, 127 YAC. (Tremendous production)
    Bess in 3 WR sets (mostly the slot): 597 yards, 10.4 ave, 36% 1st downs, long of 29 yards, 71% completions, 266 YAC, 4 TDs.

    Hartline (12 games):
    1st down: 401 yards, 18.2 ave, 42% 1st downs, long of 54 yards, 67% completions, 144 YAC. (much better than Bess on 1st down)
    3rd down: 128 yards, 11.6 ave, 38% 1st downs, long of 21 yards, 46% completions, 35 YAC. (horrible production)
    3WR sets (mostly as the #2): 237 yards, 13.2 ave, 39% 1st downs, long of 34 yards, 62% completions, 93 YAC, 0 TDs.

    These stats would disagree about your 3 WR statement and would agree with what I've been saying about the need to maximize our downs better. If anything, they tell me that Hartline has ZERO business being a #2 WR in an opened up offense and can NOT pull his weight there.

    Please tell me where you see legitimate 1st and 2nd down production from Bess here. He doesn't stretch the field or pick up ANY chunk yardage. You cant hit him on a quick slant and watch him split the defenders for a bigger gain like Hartline can. It's dink-dunk dink-dunk dink-dunk. How does he help the ground game on 1st & 2nd down like you so desire? How does he help pull coverage away from Marshall so that Brandon has more room to break plays?


    Right, b/c running 4 WR sets with 2 WRs, a slow FB, and a lumbering TE is the way to do it. This is the NFL. We SHOULD be able to run 4 WR sets with 4 freakin capable receivers.

    Right, b/c it's not possible to address the ground game and our lackluster WR/TE cast in one offseason. *sarcasm*
    Hartline's production increased b/c his opportunities increased..... you know, b/c we traded Cammy, making it so there was absolutely NO ONE to take reps away from Brian. Sorry, but this isn't a difficult concept to grasp.... not to mention Marshall allowed him a little easier coverage.

    This year, w/o Cammy, Hartline was targeted 17 more times than 2009.
    His TDs dropped from 3 to 1. (From 1 TD every 10 catches to 1 TD every 43 catches)
    His Avg/catch dropped 2 yards.
    His long catch was 13 yards less.
    His 1st down conversions dropped from 46% to 37%.
    His completion percentage stayed roughly the same: 59% compared to 55%.
    His YAC per catch dropped from 5.58 to 5.23.

    So please tell me, where is this "increased" production?

    And maybe, just maybe Henne wasn't successful on deep passes b/c we have a team full of 4.5 or slower guys w/o one legitimate deep threat whom he can develop a strong rapport with b/c Hartline is NOT it. You can't be successful throwing deep if you either don't have guys who are vertical threats or if you don't have guys who match up to your arm skills.
     
  13. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    $50+ million was pretty heavy against our cap when we had them....... so you're losing me when talking about not re-signing Richie b/c he'll be "too expensive". I'd rather cut Berger than let Richie walk. Do we want to keep our best Center...... or our 2nd best Center?
     
  14. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    That mock could actually be very good if they could land a Wr like Holmes as a FA signing. The running game would be set. The Wr's would have some badly needed explosion, and the pass rush could further improve.

    I'd also like to see one of the two. An inside linebacker such as Chris White, or a DT like the weed head Kenrick Ellis. Ellis was a monster this past season and may have put the trouble behind him. Had he not violated team rules over and over in his first two season, which got him kicked off the South Carolina team, he'd be talked about in the top 15 picks...
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    To me Butter Edwards may be the better option, he was Henne's guy at Michigan, but tbh Brad Smith would fit right into what we need a sort of X Factor/Returner.


    So loaded on the Dline though Ozman, we probably have to let McD walk simply because Merling and Odrick need snaps and the Salary Cap is back this yr.

    Still would like a pure passrushing OLB/De.
     
  16. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    Yeah, I'm sure the Jetsons will do all it takes to keep Holmes but he would be the absolute better option. Edwards is not in the same league as Holmes.

    Also I do whatever it takes to keep Starks playing as a DE. So assuming Solai is resigned, I'd want a good strong 3/4 NT and Ellis fits that to a Tee. Trade Merling
     
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  17. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Kendrick Ellis is the one guy I'd pass on an offensive player to take. He could potentially take our Dline from outstanding to flat out dominating ALL game long when paired up with Soliai and Starks.
     
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  18. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    As much as I dont like Edwards b/c he's a Jet, I'd probably love him in a Phins uni...... and I'm guessing Henne would too. I'd also bet that Braylon would prefer to play with Henne over booger Sanchez. I don't think the Jets let Holmes go. Tyrod Taylor over Brad Smith if we're trying to keep the cost down.
     
  19. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    I second this. Gotta make sure the best part of our team stays that way in case there's an injury or something. Plus there's nothing wrong with using a rotation to keep them fresh. With Ellis's quickness & agility he could be played at DE, too, so I'd also say adios to Merling. Maybe he can become our Haloti Ngata.
     
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  20. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    With Ellis they can go from 3/4 to a hybrid 5/2 to a Cover 2 if they want, and get push all over. The Dline is the strength for sure but it lacked Qb pressure on too many plays imo. I mean even Merling and with Odi coming back things could surely improve but Ellis could be that good. Almost too good to pass up. Almost because of the off the field issues he's had. If not for that we'd be talking about what slot he'd be going in the first...
     
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  21. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    White is average IMO. This ILB class is not too strong, sadly.
     
  22. Ozzy

    Ozzy Premium Member Luxury Box

    He is a solid tackler but is listed as running 4.7 which is not too good but he has instincts.
     
  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Alen, what range would you put Herzlich in?

    I'm thinking late #4th to early #6th
     
  24. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'd be curious about Randy Moss as he would be a threat on the outside and he would do a 1yr deal.

    Just a thought
     
  25. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Jesus no. I'd rather play Wallace than go for Moss, hell I would rather TO or Och-sorry Johnson. Did nobody watch him or follow him last season - the man is a team cancer and is not worth bringing in even on an expendable 1 year deal.
     
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  26. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    We should draft Casey Matthews. Gotta get some of that Matthews magic. It's gotta be the hair! I also like Ross Homan and Quan Sturdivant. Maybe Josh Bynes as a thumper.
     
  27. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I don't know how I feel about Casey playing ILB. Bynes is not a bad player, not great either IMO.

    Medical tests and Combine drills will determine that IMO. I think the rounds you note is a possibility.
     
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  28. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, I suspect Herzlich is not going to show very well Alen, not yet, it may take him an additional yr to really recover from the effects of the cancer and the titanium rod in his leg, but I think he would be an intriguing special teams player as his football instincts are solid.

    I think he could be a Tim Shaw type of impact player on the Specials.
     
  29. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    That is a far cry from where he was mentioned previously , I wish him only the best , but it was pretty obvious he wasn't going to go anywhere where near 15 as was mentioned .
     
  30. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    I know. Can he get off blocks and sort throw trash at the next level? Who knows? But I say it's worth a 4th round pick to find out. All the kid does is show up on game day. Playmaker and a true football player. You know what I mean?

    I am 100% convinced you need to pair a big beast (like Dansby) with a smaller faster linebacker in the middle of a 34 defense.

    Bynes is average to above average but if we miss on Matthews he could be our two-down thumper. Then we bring in Edds on 3rd down. What do you think?
     
  31. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    You've got to develop Bynes. He's not that gifted laterally and that's an issue IMO.

    Dansby isn't a beast IMO. He's a finesse player. If anything, I would pair a true thumper with him but you've got to find that.

    Regarding Edds, I like him as a coverage 'backer. I just hope they have developed him or plan on developing him downhill because he's not very good stack and shedding. He is not good at block destruction nor does he have good hand use. He needs a lot of work downhill IMO. It's why he was used so much as a cover guy at Iowa. Anytime you saw a Twins set against Iowa, you knew who was covering #2.
     
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  32. Whitedolphin54

    Whitedolphin54 From the land of legends Luxury Box

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    Or Dallas
     
  33. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Not seeing the cowboys going that way as they have choice and jones, and their secondary play was tragic in 2010, they could use some youth on the offensive line as well as I think the only starter under 30 on their entire Oline is Doug Free.
     
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  34. Whitedolphin54

    Whitedolphin54 From the land of legends Luxury Box

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    I think that Choice is a FA, so he might be gone, Barber is way past his best, and Jones is only OK. I agree that a good defensive prospect is most likely, but I wouldn't rule him out
     
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  35. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Dansby isnt a finesse player. Last season he was forced to do a lot of dirty work because we dont have one of those ILBs next to him. In order for him to be at his best, we need a true thumper next to him and it will help Dansby roam free more.
     
  36. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    He pretty much is a finesse player and the rest of your comment goes with mine. :)
     
  37. Third Man

    Third Man Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, I don't think Edds is ever going to take on that thumper role. It's not in him at all so I wouldn't waste my time trying. He's a very good coverage linebacker who I look forward to seeing in the nickel and long term see as a very good backup to Dansby.

    A healthy year from him would shore up our mid-range third down defense and allow us to look for a conventional replacement for Yeremiah Bell, now that the SS doesn't have to become another linebacker on third downs. That in turn would allow Sean Smith to remain on the boundary and give Nolan Carroll a chance to focus being a nickel corner.
     
  38. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Edds will give us far more options in pass coverage designs, now we can move he and SS24 all over the field in the secondary.

    Would be kind of cool if Edds could develop into a Adalius Thomas type of player for us, just a guy we can plug in all over the place.
     
  39. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    I just re-read these posts. You guys know I wasn't referring to Edds as a thumper right?
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Found an interesting thing about Edds, his short shuttle was in the "passrusher" range, but his vertical jump was solid as well, if they can work on him a bit he could be something special.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2010/introducing-sackseer

    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=65032&draftyear=2010&genpos=OLB
     

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