Early Cam Newton Draft Projections

Huge project..... Not ready at all to be an NFL QB

 

He's going to dominate the league. We'd be fools to pass on him.

 

I can't imagine him not being a 1st round pick personally, it just depends on how high.

I laugh that they say he has "above-average" mobility though.

 

I find myself hoping that Buffalo takes Newton at #3.

 

That means boom or bust...... emphasis on the bust. People are talking up the hell outta this kid's "talent" as if this is flag football, but what about the other half of the equation?

IMO they're saying- talent of a top 3 pick when combined with 4th round intangibles= late 1st rounder who can hopefully be developed.

 

Respectfully, with what proven football intelligence? He's no Matt Ryan or Josh Freeman.

 

Your dislike of Chad Henne will really make you hate yourself for entertaining the Mallet idea. He is a poor man's version of our current starting QB.

 

Yeah, and Michael Vick was going to change the way the position was played and usher in the era of run oriented quarterbacks. I'm still waiting for that to happen.

 

Pass first scramblers who can make plays out of nothing are about the extend of it IMO. The chances of finding an elite QB are hard enough w/o narrowing the search down to guys who run sub 4.4s and can juke you out of your uniform.

To say that Vick will lead to a change in the position is an insult to Vick. The man has all-world talent that the NFL might never see again. Teams aren't going to just start duplicating him b/c they see how successful he is.

 

Cam Newton will be the equivalent to Troy Smith at the next level.
To think you can insert him into an NFL offense immediately is clown shoes bro.
I would love to see you back up your statements.

 

There are several questions with Mallet. First, is he going to put in the work that is needed to smooth out his rough edges? Second, how long is it going to take for him to learn to know when to take the shot down the field and when to check down from the big play?

 

We need playmakers...not projects.

This turned from one of the best QB drafts to one of the worst QB drafts in the last few years. Luck goes back to Stanford, Mallet disappoints a lot of people in the Sugar Bowl, Cam Newton had a very average game in the NC, and now one of the top prospects coming out is Blaine Gabbert, who was projected 3rd-5th round just a few weeks ago.

This is scary. The only QB I can honestly see doing anything significant as a pro right now is Jake Locker and maybe someone later in the draft like Christian Ponder or Ricky Stanzi. That's it. Newton won't be anything, Mallet can't handle the pressure and would have to be picked by the right team with the right system, Gabbert is a nobody, etc...

 

You're right, your evaluation of this draft is scary.

 

you base this on? never taking snaps under center? padding his completion % with tonnes of bubble screens. making one read then running if its not there? i dont deny the obvious physical talent, but spread offenses arent exactly preparing kids for the NFL.

 

Do you legitimately believe someone like Cam Newton has a shot in the NFL? He has gotten in more trouble with the law than seasons he has played in. Not only that, but everytime you watch the guy play, you find something wrong with his game. Whether it is his throwing motion, pocket presence, inability to pickup blitzes and read defenses, accuracy, etc...

If we take this guy with a 5th round pick, then I will be fine. If we take this guy with the 15th pick or trade up like some of you say, I may become a Jets fan.

 

Got some numbers to prove that one?

 

That's pretty ridiculous.

 

I'm starting to believe there will be a solid chance Newton and/or Mallett will be there at 15. Obviously it's still a long ways off though.

I find it laughable to hear some people's "breakdown" of Newton. Especially when they cite mechanics and accuracy as his faults.

 

I would love to see any rational support for statements like this. Or the one that Ryan Mallett is a "poor man's" Chad Henne.

 

What's ridiculous about it? Let's look at the facts:

-Has 1 college season of tape
-Has had trouble with accuracy this season
-Played in a college spread offense that 9 times out of 10 doesn't translate well to the NFL.
-Played with all the talent in the world around him
-Was arrested for buying a stolen laptop
-Father shopped him around
-Run first, pass second
-Zero pocket presence (Oregon showed that)
-Needs work on throwing mechanics

Just because he has a strong arm and good leadership qualities doesn't mean he is worth the number 15 over all pick of the draft. It's funny how much all of you want to get rid of Henne before even giving him a chance. Do you really think Newton could come to Miami right away and lead us to something special with the lack of playmakers on offense? Do you think Newton could do anything with our run game and Roberto Wallace/Marlon Moore as our receivers? Or Anthony Fasano as our only TE?

We are going to have to draft and plan Free Agency around Newton if we draft him. Not only that, but we are going to have to teach our current players a whole new style of offense. I'm tired of these gimmicks. I want us to stick with Henne and supply him with some players that are worthy of being on the field and players that can make plays. I want to supply him with healthy players and a coordinator/QBs coach that doesn't love 3rd downs more than defenses love 3rd downs. I don't want to have to bring in a whole new QB, and have to do the same thing as well.

Makes zero sense to take this guy with our first round pick.

 

Watch them play and you will see unless you are of the group here that wants any QB just to have a QB.
Newton is an athlete not a QB. Do you think he is instantly going to the NFL and becoming a star. If so that is delusional. I'm not the only one who sees issues with his mechanics. There are reasons he will drop. Newton is a huge project at the next level. Have you ever seen him play under the center?
As far as Mallet the guy has big accuracy issues.
Just because you wish for a guy to be great doesn't mean he will be.
I'm not sure what you want as proof except for that. College numbers are irrelevant at this point.
Wait till the combine and the evaluations happen and you will see.

 

I'm not an advocate for Mallet, I think that he's a Petrino product and is surrounded by tremendous talent. Despite this, I can't agree that he's a poor man's Chad Henne. Mallet is more physically imposing, has a stronger arm, and he's shown a great deal of improvement every season.

My biggest problem with him would be that the offense didn't seem to be hurt by his absence, Tyler Wilson stepped in and looked great.

 

He at least has the tools to do just that and passing on him if he's there will be hard to do.

But my gut his talent is too sick for him to slip down to us, if we think he is the real deal we probably will have to trade up.

 

No where in there do you back up your statements. I have watched plenty of both of those players. What is it about Newton's mechanics that you don't like? I'd love to hear a little detail on this. I never said he'd come into the NFL and instantly become a star. He will be a project. But a player with his size, athleticism, and throwing ability make him an elite QB prospect. He will have to work at his craft, but he absolutely has the tools to succeed. He is often compared to Vince Young, but Newton is bigger, stronger, and a better passer already than Young. If the reports of him being a hard worker are true, that's just one more thing working in his favor.

As for Mallett, he does have some accuracy issues, but obviously so does Chad Henne. They both have great arms, but the difference is Mallett's deep accuracy is far superior to Henne's. If Henne could hit the deep ball every once and a while you could forgive some of his other mistakes, but he's not hitting the big plays when they're there. Mallett definitely scares me as a QB prospect because there aer some definite issues there, but to say he's a "poor man's Chad Henne" is kind of ridiculous.

 

Some of what you say make sense to me, but I think the talent that was put around him has been blown out of proportion. I mean this is the same team that was 8-5 last year, I don't think that he has any more talent around him than most SEC teams have. He was without a doubt the most valuable player in college football, the talent around him did not carry him.

So his dad shopped him around... and? Why is this relevant at all? People play for money in our league so he's got more experience in that regard than most people we can draft.

I hope someone with more information on the subject will cover this, but it has been shown over and over on this board that he is in fact not a run first QB on pass plays.

That being said I agree that Chad Henne seems to be our most likely path to winning a season next year.

 

This season for Auburn was a lot different than people think. Nick Fairley wasn't a starter last year, Michael Dyer was in high school last year, Terrell Zachery didn't play as much last year, Mario Fanan was better this year than last, Onterio McCalebb was night and day much better this year than last, etc...the list can go on. Yes, he was important to Auburn in their NC run, but he had a lot more help than people seem to think.

Well, the laptop incident and the shopping around incident just prove to me that he lacks character. There is no doubt in my mind that he was aware his dad was doing this. Obviously this didn't affect his on field performance, but again it shows he lacks character.

Newton had 264 rush attempts and 280 pass attempts this season. To me, that is a run first QB. 264 rush attempts!

 

A lower amount of rush attempts than pass attempts equals run-first? Okay.

 

I realize Fairley didn't play much last year and became a big deal during spring practice, but even with him the defense wasn't what got them to National Championship game. I live in the middle of SEC country, and all anyone has said here is that this defense is not similar to the normal SEC champion. Dyer ran for over 100 yards 4 times this year, once against Arkansas State. Mario Fannin, really? You thought he was a big part of the offense? McCalebb was good for the big play, but not consistent by any stretch of the imagination. Also haven't we always heard that great QBs make the people around them better? Why wouldn't this apply to him?

I can't speak to his character, but I can say that it is incredibly impressive and shows a great deal of maturity that he was able to overcome all of the hurdles and be as successful as he was. I know maturity is not the word that most people think of when discussing Cam Newton, but not many people could have accomplished what he did.

The problem with looking at the pure amount of rushing attempts is that it doesn't break down how many of these run plays were dialed up by Gus Malzahn, and how many were Cam choosing the run over the pass.

 

You can't be serious. 264 rush attempts with 280 pass attempts makes you a run first QB, no doubt. You don't have to have more rush attempts than pass attempts to be a run first quarterback.

facepalm

I am saying they had a great running game, which helped Newton a lot. I am not saying Newton wasn't apart of this team's success. I am just saying there were some all star caliber players around him.

That's true, but I don't want a QB that rushes the ball almost 50% of the time in college. That takes away from more game tape of his arm. Everyone knows he is a pretty good runner, but there are so many questions with his passing game it's ridiculous. That's a big reason why I would take Jake Locker over Newton any day of the week if we had to take a QB with the 15th pick. Locker had more pass attempts this season alone than Newton has had in his entire college career. Locker has well over 1000 pass attempts on tape in his career and there aren't too many questions on whether or not the guy can throw the ball.

Again, Newton just has way too many questions to be taken with the 15th over all pick. I don't want to draft any projects with that high of a pick.

 

What about Mike Vick in Atlanta? What about Vince Young? What about Denard Robinson?

These guys have been called run-first QBs, yet have never had more rush attempts in a full season than pass attempts. (And yes, I am talking about the Vick days in Atlanta)

You don't have to have more rush attempts than pass attempts to be considered a run-first QB.

 

Specifically? The 5th round grade. That's what is ridiculous about it.

A valid concern. But not one that stopped Sanchez from being drafted #5 overall. Or from going to two straight AFC Championship Games (provided they hold against the Patriots here).

On what evidence? I've graded at least five of Newton's games, thrown them under careful play-by-play scrutiny, rewinding, going slow motion. Accuracy is NOT an issue for him.

Well, isn't that a convenient percentage, that 9 times out of 10 thing you just pull from the air as if you didn't just make it up just now. About 80% of college offenses play the spread. Far less than 10% of QBs in college are valid pros. But tell me, from an X's and O's standpoint, what is it about the spread that you believe doesn't translate in the NFL? What route concepts are used in the spread that don't translate and aren't used by the NFL?

WHAT?!? Now I KNOW you haven't actually watched them play football. Darvin Adams, Terrell Zachery, Lutzenkirken and Emory Blake...all the talent in the world? I've watched them continually let Newton down. These guys don't get open on their own. They get open because of the scheme, which is driven by Newton's ability to threaten the defense. They drop a lot of passes, too. I haven't watched a game of theirs where their WRs didn't somehow screw up a beautifully thrown deep ball that should have been caught (possibly for a long TD).

U.S. Presidents have done far worse, when they were young.

Yes he did. But, what about that makes him not translate to the NFL? Mind you, this is an NFL where two of the most nefarious villains in the league, Mike Vick and Ben Roethlisberger, whose exploits make Cam Newton's incidents seem downright angelic, both are in the playoffs, are both widely regarded as top tier players, and both maintain fan, media, and player followings.

Can you back this up with ANY evidence whatsoever? Because I am telling you right now, there is evidence that I can cite that would make this look like an absolutely silly claim that has no basis in reailty whatsoever.

Really? You mean like on that touchdown throw he had where he sensed the pocket pressure and made a subtle step to the side to avoid it, all while keeping his eyes up the field, to where he could release the ball accurately straight into the receiver's hands? Yeah, really showed zero pocket presence on that one.

They all do. Blaine Gabbert's mechanics totally and completely break down if he's throwing a deep vertical, and his feet are also sluggish in his drop. T.J. Yates releases too low. Pat Devlin releases too high. The only problem with Newton's mechanics are footwork-related, and many of those problems are shared by Gabbert and Mallett.

He's had THREE YEARS. He's still got dead feet. He still gets passes batted down. He still can't read a defense. He still locks on with his eyes. He still can't place the ball well on RAC throws. He still can't throw the deep ball with proper accuracy or touch. He doesn't make plays. He reads the defense pre-snap and his image of how the play is going to play out dominates his vision, he doesn't read what happens on the field post-snap, and so he just checks off everything. He doesn't trust his receivers.

He's done.

WHAT is with this mentality that the Dolphins should only do what will help them right away? I have news for you, that strategy hasn't worked for the last 10 years. Yeah, you try and win "right now" with Chad Henne or Kyle Orton. Then when they don't lead us to wins, we're still losing games two years from now, we'll get to watch MORE quarterbacks we passed on because we didn't like the risk (Brees, Ryan, Rodgers)...play in the playoffs...while we sit at home. Awesome strategy.

 

I've done the studies MYSELF. Over the final 3 games Cam Newton dropped back to pass 97 times. He only scrambled forward for a run on 9 of those snaps. That's it. That's right in line with what Aaron Rodgers does. And there's another stat floating around out there where a stats service compiled the same thing for the full season and found that he only ran on something like 11% or 12% of the times he dropped back to pass.

He was doing double duty as the team's quarterback and starting tailback. The fallacy in your guys thinking is that when he ran the ball that showed a "run-first" mentality. That's just stupid. No other word describes it. When they called a run play, he ran the ball. When they called a pass play, he passed the ball.