Devil's Advocate Argument against signing Carson Palmer:

Keep in mind though R4, Brown has never had a problem using a high pick to bring in a Qb when he already has a Qb, going all the way back to Ken Anderson's days.

 

Thank you, I didn't remember that. I'm still erring on the side of not really being an issue if McDaniels is just the OC.

 

I know, I should've specified. It wouldn't shock me at all if they took a QB in round 1, just don't think it would be Cam Newton. That said, I still believe he'll do what he can to keep Palmer unless a sweet, sweet deal comes along. Just a hunch, but I think they'll go WR or a CB/S in round 1. But, you never really know what he'll do.

 

There's always Mark Whipple!

 

Just my theory, imho they take Newton #4 or so, and a Rb with our #16.

That is why Henne would matter to them as they would be a bit hesitant to start Newton in gm #1, so Henne would make a Kitna like stopgap/bridge to Newton and Brown would save a bundle of money.

 

Makes sense we should get Ross to spend a ton of money so Brown doesn't have to, and in return we get a QB that has had his own struggles, give up our #1 and magically all is well in the universe.

Come on Padre you are the one that preaches all successful teams have elite QB's, do you honestly feel Palmer is elite and is worth the money at the expense of having the opportunity to fix our other offensive needs.

 

"Elite" QBs do not grow on trees. Nobody is suggesting that Palmer would come in and be our franchise QB for the next decade, making Pro Bowl after Pro Bowl. But who else is out there? For the same reason I am willing to let Henne have another shot, I'm open to Palmer coming here.

 

I think Palmer would do what we need to do, namely win games we should win and not beat the team via questionable decisions, I also really believe the offense is a shambles because there is no real trust in Chad Henne by the players, that has to change ASAP.

Think about this, in 09 when Penny went down and Henne did really well simply because the offensive system was in place and functioning due to Penny, they had the pieces they needed, now that system has degraded in 2010 and for 2011 it has to be put back together so the "next" young Qb can step right into the System and function.

That to me is the value of a Carson Palmer, but keep in mind I am not married to either Henne or Palmer, I prefer Kyle Orton if there were anyone I'd trade that #1 pick for with no regrets or real questions, it would be him.

People seem to forget that Carson Palmer has a proclivity for major injuries, we trade for this guy, he takes a bad step and tears an Achilles, we are down to...who?

I'm also a big fan Tyler Thigpen, to me I see some Rich Gannon in his game.

 

I'll contend that unless Palmer can agree to a restructuring of his contract, no team is going to trade for him. I highly doubt a low 80's QB rating is worth 11 million in anyone's world, and you certainly don't pay that salary for him to come in and compete with Henne. That's bad business and absolutely foolish. What you want with Carson Palmer is the chance that with a change of scenery and improved health he can be more of the QB he was a few years back. But you don't gamble 11 million to find out. You wait until he's cut.

 

I agree "Elite" QBs do not grow on trees, my only point is Henne is cheap and we have a better chance of creating a dominant running game then we have in getting a "Elite" Qb next year. I just do not feel Palmer is a upgrade so why spend the extra money.

 

There is no reason Henne should not win the starting job over Palmer or Orton but I surely would like one of them here just in case. Henne just needs to work harder than he ever has. No mattter how much he ever has. It's his 4th season in the NFL. Two things that stand out with those stats are the redzone Td's, and when trailing by 7. It shows something about how they play at different parts of the game under extreme pressure.... by both Qb's...

 

Great Post.

 

I agree 100%

 

From the twitterverse just now:

 

Pats fan here, and please don't take this the wrong way. I've never created a user name on other teams' forums, but I don't loathe the Fins like a lot of guys. I loved Dan Marino when I was a kid, and my father took me to a couple of games to see the Pats-Dolphins. So, I've always had a bit of a soft spot for this franchise.

Now, that irrelevant intro aside, here is my perspective. You guys should consider yourselves lucky because Henne is not the answer and you know it. Henne was not a mega-star first-round pick, and getting rid of him won't be that difficult. You need to focus on finding a star quarterback, and there will plenty in this year's draft. In the last few years, teams have gotten Bradford, Ryan, Flacco, Freeman, etc. In '04, Roethlisberger and Rivers. Those guys are out there.

You will never be able to SERIOUSLY compete for this division without a very good QB, and Henne is not that guy. Don't argue; I'm being unbiased. Henne is sinking your ship. Get rid of him- it's not like you invested that much time- and move on. Don't even THINK about Carson Palmer. Trust me. Do you want to win, or do you want to bleed to death slowly? Palmer is absolutely infuriating; he's Chad Pennington's arm with Drew Bledoe's brain and mobility.

You'll have a big advantage over the Jets, for one. They've invested so much marketing and hype into Sanchez (who is probably worse than Henne), that they can't go back. Sanchez will drive that franchise into the ground through 2015, when the team finally sours on his sub-80 passer rating, inaccuracy, softness, and mistakes. By that time you'll be far ahead of the Jets, and by that time, Brady's reign will coming to an end.

Just my opinion here... when the Pats inevitably decline, I'd love to see the Phins step up and destroy the JETS.

 

Orton or Palmer would do just fine, provided we fixed the offensive line

 

would like to see if Incognito is a promise fulfilled @ center

offensive immediate needs: QB, C, & G
could use a TE to compliment Fasano & a RB
the WR corp is strong. much talk about the deep threat
Hartline is a deep threat, all you have to do is throw it to him deep

 

Great point. What you do not understand is that YOU are the point. You took an average that is generally acquired on 3 different downs. The OP (finding the last statistic on earth that keeps Chad Henne's passer rating above 80) used 4 yard increments. So when dealing with 4 yard increments I'm just going to say "It's a perfect world. Run the damn ball." THAT is what makes the PREMISE ridiculous.

What make this premise even more ridiculous is the what is grossly ignored. Open up 2 windows and just flip back and forth. Then tell me if you wish to continue discussing this "perfect world".

http://www.nfl.com/players/ChadHenne/careerstats?id=HEN507580

http://www.nfl.com/players/CarsonPalmer/careerstats?id=PAL249055

 

I highly doubt anyone is going to trade for Palmer or pick him up off the wire with his salary.

I also highly doubt Cinci keeps him at his salary so he could very well end up a Free Agent or be forced to restructure his contract.

 

I would like to see Henne with another QB coach to really have an opinion on this. From the waist up Henne can develop. From the waist down he scares me. He now looks flat footed and one dimensional and he didn't look that way in college. I remember the last few years when Marino was readying to retire he became on dimensional and we had no running game because of it. If Henne is going to be Tom Brady he need to be less obvious in the backfield and needs faster footwork so was can get the RB in the hole while it is opening and not closing. A little 'ball-on-the-hip' training with Henne would go a long, long way, but we will not see that from David Lee.

We can look at all of the passer ratings we want to, but that's only 1/2 of the QB's job. Henne has become so slow he looks like a dump truck trying to run the 1/4 mile. Even back in the "Wood-Strock" days we only had a running game with David Woodley, because all Don Strock could do was pass. The first person out the door should be David Lee and he should be replaced by someone when knows how to 'ball-on-the-hip' first hand. If we train him right - we wouldn't need anyone else, but Henne is only firing of 1/2 his cylinders and there is no one on this roster to fix that.

 

Straw? What? Because I don't live in statboy world it's made of straw? I watch the games. I review the games. I know why plays are run and I know how that this QB is being asked to do very little and he still underperforms. Let's take the latest game I reviewed. Of course, it doesn't fit in your statboy world because I didn't search for it according to stats. I reviewed it because under one of your own posts using this "perfect world" Killerphins mentions "totally forgetting to run."

Ravens vs Dolphins

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/20101...:analyze/analyze-channels:cat-post-playbyplay

Have you ever heard of Hiloti Ngata? Have you ever heard of John Jerry? This first series of this game is ALL about these two players. Did you ever ask yourself after this game "Why did we get out of the run?" If not, why didn't you? Is it because it couldn't be found in a statistic somewhere? Well then I'm going to review this game with you. And I will show you why YOUR perfect world doesn't exist.

First series: Ravens 7 Dolphins 0

Our success in the running game originated from one double team on Ngata when we ran at him. The rest of the series we ran away from him. Is that advisable? I'd say so. I mean would you suggest that people running away from Paul Soliai are doing the right thing this year? That's the level at which Ngata plays EVERY year. So what happened after this first series? Keep a close eye on Ngata.

Second series: Ravens 10 Dolphins 7

Game book gives credit for the tackle to Carr off a blitz. What game book does not show is Ngata carrying Vernon Carey's block three yards into the backfield on the backside of the play. 2nd and 9 and it's the 5th pass play that we will ask of our quarterback. Go to 00:37 in the highlights linked here:

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010110701/2010/REG9/dolphins@ravens/analyze/box-score#tab:watch

The ball is snapped 3.5 second before the ball is thrown. Now you have criticized our team speed while recognizing that Brian Hartline is a 4.5 (in the forty) player. How many seconds would you say it takes to run a 17 yard out with that speed? Did this play have anything to do with the lack of speed? Did this play have anything to do with the down and distance? This result of this play was negative for one reason. The ball was thrown to the deepest pattern of a 3 receiver high/low read. Do you notice when the ball was "patted" by Henne? What do you think the results would have been if the ball was flying at that point? This is simple play set up to succeed. It's a safe play. All three receivers are on one side of the field. Everyone of the receivers is in the quarterbacks line of sight during the entire rollout.

So in the second series your perfect world is blown up (in two plays) by a defensive linemen in one play and then it's followed up by a total screw job from Chad Henne. What does your statistic say about that?


Third Series: Ravens 10 Dolphins 7

1st and 10 we get a bubble screen to Brandon Marshall. Now this play is interesting because it addresses a lot of the complaints up until that point. You know the ones:

"Get the ball in the hands of your best players."
"Use formations and motion to get the ball to Marshall."

We get that AND we still use an extension of the run in the form of a bubble screen. Bunch passing game enthusiasts will confirm this day in and day out. The bubble is nothing more than a run. What happens? Brian Hartline misses a block. It's the first block that must be made on the play. 4 yard loss. The perfect world has gone awry. Take note that Ngata was now aligned in front of Vernon Carey.

2nd play of the series we throw to the lowest route (Fasano) of a three receiver pattern. It stands to mention here that one of the early complaints about this offense was that we use too many two receiver patterns. I haven't seen one two receiver pattern yet. We gain 6 yards back so I ain't going to complain. Take note that Ngata was now aligned in front of Incognito.

3rd play of the series and this is a fine example of where Chad Henne fails. It's a triple receiver set. There is one safety deep to that side. Ray Lewis is blitzing from the SAME SIDE of the route pattern. The route is reduced to one of two patterns PRIOR to the snap just by the movement of the safety. SACK! Perfect world gone awry.....


Fourth Series: Ravens 13 Dolphins 7

It's a good time to review because looking at the game book AT LEAST one person is giving into the cry of "Run the ball!" Look at the time we took possession 2:55. Look at the field position - 80 yards to go. Is it time to run? Perfect world gone awry.....

Now if you have this game on DVR and you remember "predictable" in post game comments, I want you to watch the series with me. 1st and 10 and we come out with 21 personel. It's a run right? That's what we do? Well that is exactly how the Ravens played it. They had three linemen in totaling in excess of 1000 pounds. No, this is the first two receiver route package of the game. It's two simple comebacks and Chad Henne throws to the side that he was NOT staring down. What's the gain? 31 yards... You should take note of this my statistical friend. Two receivers with one on each side. He looks to the other side (after staring at the other) and we get chunk yardage.

Second play and it's the same defensive personell on the field. Why? It's the same offensive personell on the field. We run and gain 3 yards. It's 2nd and 7 so the "perfect world" has gone awry. It's the two minute warning. Do you wish for the perfect world after the two minute warning? Should we run to set up the passer on the 9 plays?

Third play of the series and it's a three receiver pattern. We throw to the lowest receiver on the route pattern - Davone Bess.

Fourth play of the series and it's a five receiver pattern and we throw to the lowest receiver on the patttern - Ronnie Brown. It's a middle screen.

Fifth play of the series and a missed opportunity. It's a five receiver pattern and we throw to the lowest receiver on the pattern - Marshall. Missed on the backside of the progression was Brian Hartline 8 yards deeper and open.

Sixth play of the series and it's a five receiver pattern. We throw it too far in front of the lowest receiver on the pattern - Fasano covered by Lewis. It should be interesting to note that the three perimeter receivers went for the endzone.

Seventh play of the series and it's a five receiver pattern. We throw it to the lowest receiver on the pattern - Hartline.

Eighth play of the series and it's a five receiver pattern. We throw it to the lowest receiver on the pattern - Brown.

Ninth play of the series and it's a three receiver pattern. We throw it to the lower receiver in the bunch passing game - Bess.

Tenth play of the series and we're in a two TE, T formation. We overthrow a wide open Fasano.
Field Goal!

And what do you know? We get 3 points. So we go into the half 13-10 on the road. Got some lucky breaks on defense and we are in it. And we have yet to see your statboy "perfect world." We can't even come close to it because game situations have not allowed it.
Halftime: Ravens 13 Dolphins 10

Fifth Series:

1st play of the series. Ngata sheds John Jerry and makes the tackle in the backfield. It's the same play that gained 9 yards in the first series.

Second play of the series. You want to run again? Ngata is aligned over Incognito. It's a pass and it's incomplete.

Third play of the series and you will not find this in your statistics. It's a three receiver patter. Brandon Marshall is on the backside of the play. He is matched up one on one with no safety over the top. What do we get? We get a quarterback on 3rd and 10 staring at a safety reading a high/low. Does Chad Henne look at Marshall before the snap? No. Does Chad Henne look at the Marshall after the snap? No. He stares at the high/low of two receivers.

Perfect world? I haven't seen it. Have YOU seen a play made by the quarterback yet? Here is an even better question. In two full quarters and one series into the third quarter how many times have you seen the quarterback throw to the deepest receiver in a route pattern? What was the result of that pass? Interception……


Sixth Series:

1st down and they've got that 1000 pounds in. Five are coming from the first level with Ngata over Incognito and it's a four receiver pattern. We throw to the lowest receiver on the route pattern - Brown. We gain the first down. Damnit! We just can't seem to get into that perfect world. We got a first down on first down.

1st and 10 and we run inside of Ngata. I really don't know how because Ngata should have been blocked by a pulling guard that totally missed him. Hey! We're in the perfect world! It's second and 2.....
Damnit! We ran the ball. Just can't seem to get in that perfect world.

1st and 10 and it's a two receiver pattern. Fasano delays a release and all of sudden it's a three receiver pattern. Sheds a tackle and all of sudden we're in the perfect world again. It's 2 and 1. Damnit it’s an offside penalty. It doesn't matter though. It's now 2 and 6 so we're technically still in the "perfect world". We were going to run when it was 2nd and 1 anyway. That wouldn't do anything for your statistic.

2 and 6. It's the official "perfect world" because it's a pass. Praise all mighty God! We finally made it. It's a four receiver pattern and I personally just saw Brian Hartline streak across the middle with nobody impeding him AT ALL. Chad Henne tucks and runs to the vacated side. Perfect world gone awry...... Damnit!

But wait! It's 3rd and 3 and I forgot that we are technically still in the perfect world. It's a three receiver pattern and we throw to the lowest receiver in the route pattern - Brown. It's off the fingers of Brown. Damnit! Perfect World gone awry.... PUNT!


Seventh Series: Ravens 20 Dolphins 10

1st and 10 and Ngata is aligned over Vernon Carey. It's a bunch passing set again which tells me from the sheer number of times I seen this alignment that we have practice this ALL WEEK leading up to the game because we like the coverage against it. I see nine defenders on my screen so it means two safeties. It's a good time to check to a run and I really don't know why we didn't. This is the first series in the game that the 1000 pounds have been missing from the interior. Henne stares at the triple receiver routes for 3.5 seconds and takes off running to the other side. Nobody open I guess. I can't see anything to in the pattern to make a comment.

2nd and 8: Five receivers sent out and we throw it to the lowest route in the pattern - Marshall.

3rd and 2: We are in the perfect world!!!! Five receivers sent out and we throw it to the lowest route in the pattern - Marshall. Ah, climax! We finally got into the perfect world and Chad Henne succeeded.

1st and 10: Three receiver pattern and Henne throws it to the backside receiver away from the high/low. Do you know how many times Chad Henne has thrown to the backside in this game? Two. Do you know who caught both of them? Brian Hartline. Do you realize the significance of the gains?

1st and 10: Play action with three receivers out in the pattern. It's Brandon Marshall one on one in the endzone. Incomplete.

2nd and 10: and the only significance of throwing to the lowest receiver in the three route pattern (Bess) is that it gets us back to the perfect world.

3rd and 4: It's trips again and it's Ray Lewis on the blitz from that side again. Do you think Chad Henne can see that blitz this time? Nope. SACK! Damn! We were in a perfect world too. WTF?
Missed Field Goal!

Eighth Series: Ravens 23 Dolphins 10

Now it's time to take something into account. We've been searching for your "perfect world" for the entire game. We've found it a couple of times but very few times have we found it in the form of the way you wanted it. Why? Sometimes we gained 14, 11, 9, and so forth on 1st down - which led us to another first down. How many series do you think we have in a game? How many times do you think we should run in a game? Your statistic ignores THE ACTUAL GAME. You can continue to look around at what is hurting Chad Henne in statistics but you do not have to. It is right before your eyes in THIS POST.

There is 6:45 left in the game and we are two touchdowns away. Is it time to run? NO! Just like it wasn’t time to run with 2:55 left in the half. That’s near 20 percent of the game eliminated from your perfect world. How did we get here? Did we get there through interceptions? Did we get there by a failure to recognize the blitz? Did we get there from throwing to the lowest receiver of every route pattern? Did we get there by only throwing to the backside (or third read) of a passing play ONLY 2 times in a game?

Well let’s just move forward and see the results of what we put on tape every single week.
1st and 10: Incomplete throw to the lowest receiver of the high/low route pattern. Single receiver bracketed on the backside.

2nd and 10: It’s a twin open. Another high/low on one side and Brandon Marshall bracketed on the single side. The movement of the linebacker to the single side tells any quarterback with half of a brain not to throw this ball. What does Chad Henne do? He takes the snap, looks directly at the single receiver as he drops back, and makes an attempt to throw to a receiver that was covered by a corner that is backed up by a safety. If the bracket wasn’t enough to discourage the throw, surely the high ball to gain clearance of linebacker should have told this dufus not to throw the damn thing. INTERCEPTION! Is this some sort of surprise? Is this not a disaster that you could not have seen from under center?


The final series is not even worth discussion. It’s either statistic padding (and Henne comes through with that) or statistic killing (and Henne comes through with that) from the third interception of the game.

I realize that you did not cite this game. Killerphins cited this game and I believe it was only mentioned as a result of seemingly abandoning the running game. The running game was NOT abandoned. But this game is 1 of 16 games in a season. It is nothing new in what has been the downfall of this team.

Do you want to know the real culprit for Chad Henne’s failures? He refuses to throw this pass versus Cover2:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81c3a166/Hartline-grabs-a-pass-for-24-yards

and he refuses to throw this pass versus Cover2:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-.../Anthony-Fasano-Highlight-WK-14-vs-Bills-2008

When you see him even attempt to make those two throws, we may be close to having a quality pro quarterback. He will not make those throws UNTIL he at least makes an attempt on them. They are the weakness of Cover2 and this guy just doesn’t get it. Find a defense for that in your statistics and then tell me whose debate is made of straw. Until then you can mire in your made up statistical world and I will continue to scoff at every notion. Chad Henne's issues are Chad Henne's issues. It is fact.

 

........and this post is now the poster child. You read the lobbyists statement exactly how he wanted you to read it and left your football mind somewhere in a back alley. As I said, the entire PREMISE is ridiculous. His post was not about average. It was about the gimme downs.

The only thing said different when utilizing the statistic THIS time was that he found some other comparison to Carson Palmer that made Chad Henne look favorable and threw it in just for good measure. Who cares that Carson Palmer's career shows something different. We'll just show the unfavorable measurements for Palmer and the favorables for Henne.

 

Palmer has not been the same QB that he was prior to the injury. His CAREER has been good...because of what je was prior to the injury. Since the injury, he has just not looked the same.

I'm not saying that I want to keep Henne, or that Henne is better, but, I also don't want the FO bringing in Palmer. If Henne isn't the answer at QB, then we need to use a first round pick to get one in the draft that is. I hope that they can get Ingram, though, this year, get a new OC and see what Henne does with him next year, and, if necessary, draft a QB in the draft after that season.

 

Exactly. Dolphins have players who can catch the ball, they first need a QB and second need to fix the middle of the O-Line. MAYBE they can get lucky and find that QB this offseason, but I doubt it. Orton would be nice, Palmer and Kolb are sketchy. Oh and they hopefully find a good OC like what Nolan did for the defense.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/HeadLines.aspx?sport=NFL&hl=198126