Potential Busts in the 2008 NFL Draft

Busts in the NFL Draft are bound to happen. One of the biggest aspects of grading prospects is weighing the risk versus reward proposition. Every year there are prospects with a much higher bust factor than others. The War Room Report analyzes the prospects that have the biggest chance of being a bust. Players on the list are not necessarily poor prospects, but their high bust factor must be considered.

Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (#6) – The bust factors are screaming on Darren McFadden – off the field concerns, attitude concerns, and lacking the ideal build to have long term NFL success. Darren McFadden was a star in college, but the question as to rather or not he can hold up consistently, especially due to a lack of ideal bulk and weak lower body. The upside is huge – but the struggles of similar speed prospects such as Reggie Bush combined with a propensity for fumbling and off the field concerns, gives the Arkansas back one of the highest bust factors of the Round 1 talent.

Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (#12) – McKelvin is likely to be the top corner selected, but he is a player taking a big step up from the Sun Belt to the NFL level. He also relies on his natural ability too much and does not fit every scheme, due to only marginal instincts in zone coverage. If McKelvin is not willing to work to improve at the NFL level, he may be relegated to only a kick returner, despite his lofty ranking. However, his natural physical talent to play cornerback, especially in man coverage, will make it a risk worth taking.

Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh (#19) – Anytime a player is touted as “raw” it can also be noted that they have a huge bust factor. Otah has only played two seasons of Division 1 football and consistently relies on his natural strength instead of working to improve his fundamentals. His work ethic has been questioned as he has not been able to keep himself in ideal shape while at Pittsburgh. He also needs to improve his use of leverage as he can be taken out of plays by bull rushers. Otah could develop into an elite left tackle at the NFL level or he could be out of the league in a few years.

Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas (#21) – Corners, by their nature, are risky picks. Talib, despite great physical tools, only has average timed speed for the position. He is a bit of a gambler and is vulnerable to double moves. He was torched for big plays several times in the 2007 season, including a huge day by Jordy Nelson. Add into the equation, the rising character concerns after he admitted that he has tested positive for marijuana several times at Kansas.

Desean Jackson, WR, Cal (#26) – There is no denying the athletic ability and speed of Desean Jackson. However, his lack of ideal bulk and tendency to disappear at times at Cal raise huge red flags. If Jackson is unable to bulk up, he is going to have a difficult time staying on the field in an every down role. He also has some character concerns based on his tendency to put himself before the team. Jackson’s ability is tempting but teams must factor in his lack of size and attitude.

James Hardy, WR, Indiana (#31) – Big, physical prospects like Hardy are often overdrafted and Hardy could continue the trend. He is a relatively raw prospect who only started focusing on football full time starting in 2005. He also has the off the field baggage to potentially derail his career. At this point, he is more of an athlete a football player and really lacks the explosion to consistently separate from NFL corners. His size is enticing, but Hardy could just as well fail to get on the football field, if he does not continue to develop his skills.

Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas (#43) – A relatively raw prospect who played in the spread system at Kansas, Collins has the potential to be an NFL starting left tackle. However, he plays with poor technique and has a long way to go in order to be able to handle NFL caliber pass rushers. He needs to refine his frame more to added more bulk and develop much more as a pass blocker. He has some character and disciplinary concerns but really could develop into a star, if all goes well.

Justin King, CB, Penn State (#52) – King has all of the potential in the world after entering Penn State as a top prep. However, he has never been able to consistently been able to put it together while at Penn State. Despite being a standout in the classroom, he has been unwilling to put forth the effort to improve on the field. He was torched several times in the 2007 season, including by James Hardy, but also showed the ability to be a shut down corner. King could become a Pro Bowler, but he must be willing to put forth the effort necessary to succeed.

Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan (#57) – Manningham has one of the worst off-seasons of any prospect. His combine performance was disappointing, and even though his workout at the Michigan Pro Day improved, the revelation that he lied to NFL teams about failing drug tests at Michigan was a giant red flag. Manningham was also very inconsistent as both a route runner and as a natural hands catcher. His slight stature led to several nagging injuries at Michigan, which is a concern going forward. However, Manningham, when on his game, has potential to be a top tier wideout.

Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska (#68) – Nicks, a power blocker from Nebraska, has the mean streak and strength NFL teams crave. He is a raw prospect who only started one season at Nebraska. There are concerns about his technique and work ethic as well. The character red flag were raised again when Nicks was arrested just before the Nebraska pro day. His athletic potential is there, but the intangibles are a big concern.

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