First of all, we're 2-0 with two wins on the road and in sole possession of first place in the division. That is the most important thing and should not be under estimated. That is a very difficult thing to accomplish. Only 7 teams can say they're 2-0 (8 if NO wins tonight) and none of them got there by winning two on the road. The Positives: This section is mostly about our defense. We have speed, size and play makers all over the defensive side of the ball. I like to count how many players are arguably among the top five at their position or at least are playing that way. I think that how many players you have in that category is a strong indicator of how good your team is. Those kinds of players elevate the level of their team mates so if you have enough of them you can just fill out the roster with decent players and get great production. By my count we have at least five players on the defense that belong in that category. I see Starks, Wake, Dansby, Davis, Bell in that category over the first two games. I would also argue that J. Allen played in that category against Minny, but I didn't include him b/c I don't think he was on that level against the Bills. He was good, but not on that level for both games. I stated this off-season before the draft that this defense had a ton of talent and that it just needed the right scheme to let it shine. All the players on that list were on the team before the draft so I see no reason the revise that opinion. Henne is avoiding the big mistake. Through two games he is responsible for zero turnovers. That is a huge step in his development. Marshall has been almost everything we could could ask for. He has been both a deep threat and a chain mover. And he's been a beast as a run blocker. Brown appears to be fully back. He is averaging 5.6 YPC so far this season. He is one of the few top five talent level players on the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, he's never produced at that level for more than half a season. He has to stay healthy for this offense to be effective. The Negatives You have to pass to win in this league. Our offense hasn't yet shown the ability to do that consistently. There have been flashes, but not enough to have any confidence in our ability to do that. The approach has been very conservative in the first two games. Henne only passed five times in the first half against the Vikings. It may be the right approach or it may be that Henne isn't trusted enough yet. I don't know. Both games have been wins so you can't be too critical. But in the long term, Henne will have to produce more and if he's not given the opportunity we don't know if he's capable of it. The result is that we're struggling to score points. Seven offensive points like we produced against the Vikings is unlikely to cut it every week. I stated earlier that Marshall had been almost everything we could ask for. I said "almost" b/c he hasn't provided that red zone target . He was wide open on our first and goal attempt but Henne just missed him. Earlier I counted five defensive players that were arguably playing as top 5 at their position. On offense, I count potentially four, Long, Marshall, Polite and Brown. But only two are true play makers capable of game changing plays (Marshall and Brown) and I don't know that any, other than Long, are really playing at a top 5 level so far. This offense needs more play makers. I said it before the draft and nothing has changed. I think that an offense needs to have three play makers capable of game changing plays, not including the QB (unless he's a running threat) to be really effective. This offense doesn't quite have that so it will need to be carried by the D until they find or develop that third player. Along with Henne's development, the team's success in addressing this will determine if we can become a perennial contender. Looking forward We have two big divisional games coming up. Both of our opponents have been erratic at best. Both of these games are winnable. If we can win both games then we put ourselves in an excellent position to win the division. If that were to happen, I would put our odds of winning the division at about 80%. Even if we win just one of the two, we'll still be in a pretty good spot. I figure we'd have about a 60% chance of winning the division.
I know, but I think they will need to open up the passing game more often going forward. That will mean a few more shots down field and a few more pass attempts overall. Points come out of the passing game and seven offensive points a game is unlikely to be good enough most weeks. Our defense has played great, but they've also benefitted by playing against some struggling offenses. I'm a believer in this D, but its unreasonable to expect them to hold every opponent to 10 points or less.
Thanks Rafael, always enjoy your perspective. I agree, we won't win every week with our offense like that. I suspect, we'll run into a game where were trailing, Henne will open it up slowly and we'll see how he performs when he needs to. He hasn't needed to yet as we haven't trailed on the scoreboard in either of the first two games. If we continue to gain early leads I don't see our philosophy changing, Henne will manage the game and focus on ball security. Which i'm fine with. But at some point he will need to try and get back in a game and we'll see how his development has come when he needs to gain yards through the air. Teams moving forward will probably expect a lots of running based on the first two games, i could see more deep attempts early to push back a D. Sorta like the play against the vikes, although maybe not on the first play. I like the approach as it builds Henne's confidence and timing with his wideouts but he's doing it in a situation where if he misses and turns the ball over its the first quarter. He missed BM on the deep attempt in Buffalo and then hit him on the attempt vs Minny. That's growth in my opinion, even given the small sample size. Another thing to note, is we have only had one injury so far. Odrick is our only player who missed time through 2 games. That can be overlooked but look at the Jets for instance, losing Jenkins and now Revis is playing with a tweeked hammy (or ego blow from getting scorched by Moss, however you want to read that play) Two very key players for their team, both missing time. I think having a healthy starting roster will pay divendends as the season progresses, something i hope we can achieve, a healthy roster for most of the year. We were disciplined vs Buffalo with regards to penalties, but not so vs the vikes. We were good until the back to back too many men penalties, then the offside that would have been a turnover for us. Costly offside IMO. Not an easy place to play mistake free football, but back at home i surely hope we get back to disciplined football that this staff is all about. No excuses vs the Jets at our home opener. Good/Great teams don't hurt themselves often and with our margins of victory we need to keep it clean.
Good writeup but, "I dont know" is not an acceptable answer for what were seeing offensively for you Raf, considering the bar you have set for yourself.. Talk about it.? I felt that Parcell's plan, once he got here, would be that of building a traditional offense, just with bigger, stronger player's, and heavy into the power running game.. do you think if we take that blueprint to the extreme, we can win in the playoff's, can we change the game back to how it was?
Good read. As I've been saying though, I'd wait until the Bye week before I'd start judging what kind of offense the Dolphins truly have. Whether Henning and Co. have been holding back so they can open the bag of tricks against NYJ and NE or if it's b/c Henne is limited (I refuse to believe that), I think we'll find out after the Pats game.
About the bar I've set for myself; I've never pretended to know it all. I try to base my opinions on facts or at least reasonable assumptions. I can't say I have enough facts to know whether Henne is ready to win a game with his arm yet. I know Henning said that he'd prefer to run every play so there's certainly some support for the idea that Henning is the one that's limiting things. IMO he's wrong. You can't run every play or even most of them. Once you get into the playoffs the defenses are too good. Most any defense can sell out and stop the run. If you're too reliant on it, then you will lose.
I'm fine with throwing the ball 18 times a game, with 7.6 ypa. Thats just me though. I think only scoring 7 points was a function of turnovers and poor field position.
I agree for the most part, but we were ahead for the entire game. While they may have been creeping up on us, I think/hope we'll see a different beast if the score flips and we're forced to win a game with the offense. Last year this team excelled at pounding the ball and running down the clock. I think they're trying to use that, when it's warranted (when we have a lead). We were getting gashing yards with the run for the majority of the game, and our defense was playing smart. I'm not saying I disagree with the assessment that the offense needs to get the passing game more into this, but I think it might be an explanation as to why we haven't. I'm hoping we are holding back some tricks on our passing game for the division. If we can get some good gains from the pass, I think it will be an easy win against the Jets. I still think we can win if we play like we did yesterday, but it's going to be a much uglier game.
I know and that was how I took it. I've just always been a person that values being able to admit when they don't know something so I make sure to hold myself to the same standard.
Pat Kirwan's current article, Quarterbacks under siege from all angles highlights the QB injuries and high number of picks, which may explain the staff's early season philosophy. Better to let the OL gel to find out what type of runs and pass protections that they excel at rather than putting the burden on the QB to make the big play.
Also towards the first half the Dolphins offense constantly got around the 50 yard line and then the drive would end. The problem with the Dolphins offense was execution. Henne would have had at least 6 more passes if the Dolphins were more successful with their drives.
I do not think Henning's line of reasoning following the statement is, "So I will run the ball most of the time, through hell or high water."
Slow your roll on Ronnie because before that 51 yard run, Ronnie's average is only 3.76 YPC. This is a case where you're living and dying by the numbers and not actually assessing the game itself.
Averaging 3.76 YPC minus one big run, is actually pretty good. That is of course if you are assessing the game itself and not living and dying by numbers.
Today's NFL relies on big plays. Look at Chris Johnson's numbers last week before he had the one big run. Brown is back if he can grind out a 3.5 - 4.0 yard average and then sprinkle in the occasional big run. Looking at the numbers helps you assess the game.
