Brandon Marshall, or why Greg Camarillo could be in trouble.

Not really. His 20 yard plays as a percentage of his catches isn't all that great. You have to throw to him 10 times to get one play of 20+ yards. He's a terror from 0-20. He was a little better with Cutler throwing him the ball but still, he operates from 0-20. Desean jackson was more of a threat to go deep or past 20.

Don't get me wrong. YAC is awesome, and Marshall is a terror. What he isn't, is a deep threat. If he was, he'd be Uberman. YAC are cool, but once you get the ball, you have 11 guys gunning for you. Going one on one for 30 yards and getting that deep pass is much more devastating. Remember how we got torched by Indy? Deep strikes by Manning. When he caught 21 passes they only scored 16 points and they lost (to Indy coincidentally).

Ironically, Denver scored MORE when he didn't have his huge 100+ yard games. Weird.

But I'll give him that Losing Cutler hurt his YPA. So, hopefully we'll see a reversion back with Henne at the helm.

 

Chunk yardage is only part of the goal. The goal is actually passing efficiency. Getting some chunk yardage just makes that easier. Cam doesn't help with the chunk yardage, but he helps with the efficiency. That means he's a good valuable player, but is upgradeable. The Dolphins do need more guys that can get chunk yardage, but Cam is only in trouble if we find one of those guys. Until then he's a pretty decent player. And while I'm sure they would like a 4th WR with more speed, I don't think it will be that easy to find a better WR to replace him with.

 

LMAO!

 

I'll readily admit that between Ginn, Bess, Camarillo and Hartline the last two years there isn't a #1 quality receiver.

That's a non-issue at this point, however.

 

It's wrong whatever way you phrase it. Camarillo was our #1 receiver last year.

Snap Counts-
Greg Camarillo- 693
Davone Bess- 581
Ted Ginn- 544
Brian Hartline- 407

Camarillo clearly wasn't a third down sub either, given they graded him with significantly more run blocking(I-Form/2-TE) packages than any other receiver on the roster. Outside of the first four games of the season where Camarillo had restricted snaps recovering from his ACL, there was only one game in which any receiver saw more snaps than him.

 

That makes him look worse as he had over 100 snaps more than Devone and Devone had more catches than Greg was targeted.

Hartline had nearly 300 less snaps and yet was targeted only around 20 less than Camarillo.

 

My point is that he is not a deep threat but he is a threat to take it to the house or get mega YAC everytime he touches the ball. He did not get the reputation of being one of, if not, the hardest Wr's to tackle for nothing.

I don't mind not having a deep threat, although I would have liked to see Ginn opposite Marshall, but what Marshall is, is a THREAT period. That's what this team has lacked for a long long time.

 

Cam started every game in 2009. He started every game in which he was healthy in 2008. He had more total starts and snaps over the past two seasons than any WR on the team over that time. When Hartline did start, which he did in just 2 games, it was in place of Ginn, not Cam.

 

Both of Manning's TD's against us last season were short passes with long runs after. You speak out against a player who does a great job getting YAC and then you use those examples. Thanks for proving the point that you don't have to always go deep.

 

I think everyone is taking this 'chunk yardage' thing and running with it. You aren't necessarily looking for 20+ yd plays.

 

There are some misconceptions going on in this thread.

Greg Camarillo took more snaps than any Miami Dolphins WR in 2009. He was a starter and that did not change at any point in the season. In fact, his participation only INCREASED as the season wore on. He participated in an average of 57% of the snaps for the first 8 games and 63% of the snaps for the final 8 games. So keep in mind that anyone predicting Camarillo to suddenly get ousted from the roster is predicting that last year's #1 WR is suddenly not even good enough to roster. That 60% average is down from a year ago when he was in on over 76% of available snaps, but I don't see him falling off the roster altogether just because of Brandon Marshall's presence, unless they can trade him.

Brandon Marshall took 31% of his 2009 snaps in the slot. And that's not just a Josh McDaniels thing because he also took 27% of his 2008 snaps in the slot under Shanahan. This guy was moved everywhere, literally. He took snaps at fullback, halfback, tight end, outside, inside, etc. Camarillo showed similar versatility. He was used on the outside but also took 36% of his snaps in the slot. There's never any reason why two versatile players can't be on the field together.

Brian Hartline showed versatility in 2009. He took 22% of his snaps from the slot. Davone Bess only took 40% of his snaps from the true slot WR position, so he's not as exclusive there as everyone seems to think.

The lone non-versatile player was really Ted Ginn, who only took 7% of his snaps from the slot because if he wasn't blazing down the sidelines and forcing the safeties to respect his deep game, he was all but useless on the football field.

What I'm getting at is that the acquisition of Brandon Marshall was not an acquisition that forces any of these other versatile players into sitting on the bench. Swapping out Marshall for Ginn was an increase in versatility, not a decrease. Now every single one of the guys in that top four are comfortable inside or out.

Bess did 40% of his work from the slot, Camarillo did 36%, Marshall did 31% and Hartline did 22%. Who gets on the field and when becomes a matchup issue. Obviously, Marshall is going to be on the field the most. He'll take something like 95% of the snaps at the least. But if you want him inside you can put Camarillo and Hartline on the outside. If you want him outside you can have any combination of Camarillo, Bess or Hartline in the game with him.

All four guys are going to be productive this year. Marshall will be the most productive. But last year there were 4449 snaps shared by the WRs, TEs and FB, only 2225 of which were claimed by the WRs (among the lowest in the league) and I'm willing to bet that increases at least to 2,720 snaps which would have put them as the 12th most WR-oriented offense in the league, and if Marshall accounts for 1090 of those snaps (95% of 1147) then I see no reason the other 1630 snaps wouldn't be split straight down the middle with each guy getting 543 snaps. And at their previous production levels that would be enough for Camarillo to catch for 621 yards, Bess to catch for 710 yards, and Hartline to catch for 675 yards. And that's if the presence of Brandon Marshall does not increase their per-snap production, which I believe it will. And in that scenario Marshall could still have 1439 yards (his 2008 & 2009 per snap yardage averages multiplied by 1090 snaps).

Bet Chad Henne would appreciate 3,445 yards coming just from his WRs. And even if his TEs and RBs were no more productive on a per snap basis in 2010 than they were in 2009, that would still come out to 4,412 passing yards for Henne and the Dolphins. That would have made the Dolphins the 9th most prolific passing offense in 2009.

 

That argument might have worked if those were the only two passes Peyton Manning threw.

Also, you are wrong on the very first TD Manning throws. Peyton throws from the 13 yard line and Dallas Clark catches it on the 40. That is a 27 yard pass. That is not a short catch and run. It is also behind everyone except the deep saftey (Wilson I believe). It looks like a short pass because it's Manning.

The last TD of the game yes was a short pass that we blew. The other drive that led to a quick TD was a mix of a 17 yard pass and YAC.

I never spoke out against a player, I spoke against a misconception of that player. I said, YAC is very important. And he would be a better player if he could also go deep. Not sure what glasses you are wearing but you are putting some harsh words in my mouth. You don't always have to go deep but if you can, you can stab a dagger through the heart of a defense. It's not just the TDs either. A quick deep strike can lead to better position in the field position battle. It can lead you out of your end zone area. It can lead to a quick field goal, like the deep pass to Clark at the end of the 2nd half to tie the game.

I'm not advocating deep 40 yard bombs. But anything approaching 20 yards is deep and we haven't been successful at even those. Hit an 18 yarder with Brandon and his ability with YAC and we are moving down the field fast. Can we do that? We'll see. We haven't seen Henne to Marshall. I just know Marshall's rein of terror is between 0-10. Without his ability for YAC his numbers would be terrible. But is that his fault, the QB, the OC, or all of them? We shall see this year.

Will our team unleash Henne and our passing offense or will we dink and dunk still? Again, it remains to be seen.

 

The part I bolded in my quote is the part I think you're missing. Cam is by all accounts a good WR. He's not a #1 guy, but he's at least okay as a #2 or #3 and very good as a #4. I see the odds of an unknown challenging him as remote at least this year. Turner is clearly in danger, but your adding of Cam doesn't make much sense. IIRC he was the WR who started the most games for us last year. For him to lose a roster spot, not only would Hartline have to continue to develop and become the clear #2, which is far from a certainty (IMO he has the potential, but it may still take another year if he gets there), but then you'd have to have two unknowns beat out Cam for the 4th and 5th spots. And the only basis for that, that you're providing is the desire for a faster player. Speed helps, but it's not the only factor in separation. The odds of finding two WRs among the UDFA pool that will do a better job of getting separation and catch as consistently as Cam are probably astronomical. Heck, the odds of finding just one who can do that in his first year is remote. Even Bess, whom I have been high on since his days at Hawaii, wasn't better as a rookie than Cam is now.

 

I think Camarillo's dip in production from 2008 to 2009 was pretty much knee related. I think he already looks quicker now when I see him on those practice videos than he did a year ago. I think in this league you learn to back the horse coming into his second year off knee surgery, relative to what he did his first year off knee surgery...kind of like backing a horse on first time lasics, or second race after a layoff.

 

No, not so much we're going to tell a guy who has the potential for 1,000 yards to piss off.

I would give half a **** about that if the Dolphins weren't #2 overall in red zone scoring percentage last year. Couldn't care how the job gets done as long as the job gets done.

 

Whats missing in this debate is the fact that we don't have a vertical offense. Sparano has said whenever they tried the "vertical stuff", it blows up in our faces. We like having an efficient offense, high percentages. We're missing chunk yardage because we needed a guy who can run and catch, so we got Brandon Marshall, who isn't necessarily a deep threat but is a guy who can catch as well as produce ADDITIONAL yardage as opposed to our current crop of guys. Everyone else is a possession receiver of a certain variety. Camarillo is a quick, sure handed guy who can catch on the sidelines. Bess is a guy who can catch and turn up the field in a straight ahead motion but isn't that fast or quick. He's a mid-seam route and over the middle type guy. Hartline is quick, fast, and nimble, and has good hands. He's got Cam and Bess's best attributes. His size is lacking, the only thing I think that Brian has working against him, but it could work in his favor as a the #2 should he get it.

Which brings me back to Marshall. Our biggest problem last year was not the fact that we needed a deep threat. Our offense isn't designed to chuck it down the field, even with Henne at the helm. Parcells' offenses have never been that aggressive. Our biggest problem on offense was red zone efficiency.. With our high percentage, efficient offense we solved the problem of getting to the red zone, a problem which plagued the post-Marino Dolphin teams so they masked it with an one-sided emphasis with the run game. Problem is with our new offense is that now we can get to the red zone, but we can't seem to score. We didn't have any big WR targets to throw to. Fasano was that target in 08 but he didn't do well last year. Now we have Marshall so we hope that the problem is solved. It's not about deep throws, its about red zone efficiency.

 

You're not saying he could lose his starting job though. You're saying that some unknown will take his roster spot. I don't see that as even a remote possibility for all the reasons mentioned earlier.

 

I see it as crazy to not even see it as a remote possibility.

 

Um, all of Indy's big plays were YAC plays. The seam to Clark on play one. The screen to Garcon. The crossing route to Clark on Crowder, the sluggo to Brown vs Crowder etc. The only long play was the corner route to Clark right before halftime vs Torbor. NE, San Diego, Jax, Tennessee, NYJ, & Buffalo all hit big plays downfield. But surpisingly, the Colts and Saints never connected on any bombs.

From what I see, its alot more common for big plays to come from short-intermediate passes than it is for a WR to run 40 yds downfield and catch a bomb. Marshall excells at creating yards after the catch, and with our running game sucking LBs into the line of scrimmage, Marshall should have a feast working the middle of the field and in the red zone. He may not have any Desean Jackson moments, but he'll make plenty of big plays.

 

Finding WRs off the scrap heap that can come in and catch 50+ passes as a starter in their first year is very rare. I doubt it's happened half a dozen times in the entire NFL during the modern era. That's what you would need to find for a WR to be an upgrade over Cam. And to get him off the roster you would need to find two of those guys. And that's if you assume that Cam today is no better than the guy fresh off of an ACL injury. I saw what CK saw and that's that Cam already looks quicker than last year. So in reality you'd have to find two guys on the scrap heap that are better in their first year than the guy who was on pace for 80+ catches. I don't see that as even remotely likely.

 

No, I do not agree. That is not hard. It happens all the time.

Really, so of the 6 times, the Dolphins were lucky to have done it three times?

No, that is not what you need to upgrade over Cam. To get him off the roster you need to find one person who fit what you want to do with your system that makes more sense.

Unless Miami is going to suit up 5 wide receivers, then they only need one who can come in and do a good job at receiving and fill another role, such as special teams. Cam is nearly useless as the 5th inactive wide receiver, unless they are afraid of injury.

 

I remember Gadsden falling into our lap after the Charles Jordan failure.
It happens. 48 catches. 7 TD's in 98
Not bad even by your standards.

 

I dont think youre taking the off the field attributes of Camarillo into account. He's a fire and forget player. Consumate professional, works hard every day, good in the locker room, with the media, relatively low cost. Add to that solid on game day, consistent, mistake free (except for that idiotic lateral vs Nawlins), no drops, no fumbles. Etc. Remember the FO we have here, they value professionalism/effort/etc just as much as talent. IMO there's not a chance in Hades that Cam isnt on the roster come September. It'll be Marshall, Cam, Hartline, and Bess. Cam may lose his starter's spot, may lose some snaps, but off the roster? Rubbish.

 

That's absolutely right, however, Marshall is a bigger, a bit faster, more physical and more elusive Cammy. If anything, Marshall will be taking snaps and catches away from Cam anyway. Unlike the last couple of years (mostly due to Ginns' inability to be consistent where Cam got most of the balls his way) Marshall will be the main threat. This regime likes to rotate and control snap counts to a certain extent, but Marshall may make them loosen that some with his ability. That would mean, imvho, that Cammy will see fewer snaps and fewer balls his way. He's not the outside threat that Hartline is/can be.

In actuality, Cammy will be taking snaps from Bess. Bess has an ability to make things happen from the slot, but Cammy was our slot guy at one time and may be best suited at that spot anyway. I know most folks think Bess walks on water, and he's very good at what he does, but a WR like Cammy is bit more flexible in the slot than Bess due to his speed. He has great hands and good instincts for finding the open areas, as does Bess, but he's faster (than Bess) and pretty nearly as elusive after the catch...

This is probably a good problem to have. However Cammy and Bess don't solve the outside spot issue. Hartline is being counted on to be the 'stretch-the-field' guy for us. He's the only 'speed' we have and he doesn't have elite speed as Ginn did, but he has enough. I think the fighting on this squad will be between Bess and Cammy for PT, not Hartline and of course not Marshall...

 

Actually, I specifically said a rookie. Gadsden was a second year player. Even then his production in that year would have been a downgrade over even what a still not healthy Cam produced. So I stand by my statement. The odds of us finding two WRs in their first year who are better than Cam is right now are astronomically high.

 

20-27 yard passes in the air are deep strikes unless we have different definitions here. They benefited from a lot of YAC but that's what happens when you throw a deep strike. Usually one or two guys to beat not 5-6. The first TD to Clark was a 27 yard pass with one guy to beat. Beat that guy and it's YAC galore. I'm not advocatin 40 yard bombs those are almost impossible to do. Save for Ginn once a year . If you watched every Chargers game like I did you know that Rivers to Vincent Jackson deep happened a lot. But he only had 4 40+ plays all year. It's the 25-35 yard deep strike that gets things moving, gets the crowd going, the momentum, all of that. With our versatility that would be killer. Rivers throws a good deep ball but never hit his WRs in stride, so their YAC numbers are terrible. He gets the ball in the area so his big WRs can muscle for the ball but 9 out of 10 times they're falling as soon as they get it.

Marshall is awesome when it comes to YAC. The best. He's brutal. From what I saw last year, they were throwing to him 5-10 yards out and letting him create. And boy did he create. What I'm saying is, does he have the ability to go 15-25 yards consistently before getting the ball? That would make him a killer receiver with his ability for YAC. Get behind the LBs and just have some scrub defensive backs to squash. I watched all his big plays last year and I think he got behind the D once or twice. Now is that the result of his limited speed/abilities? Or was that the offense called because of Orton and scheme? Will our scheme be different?

 

I'm hoping that Marshall's presence improves the players around him to gain chunk yards. Two areas that I like to see are as follows:

1. Henne's pass-action improves - As go-to receiver, Henne should force the ball to Marshall, especially in single receive sets. By improving play-action pass completion %, the opposing defense will start to play on their heels; enabling bigger gains for the running backs and secondary receivers, such as TE to sneak behind the defender.
   
2. Hartline/Bess routes in Marshall's space - I believe Hartline is at his best when running routes similar to a young Chambers (before he as knocked out in Denver). He's the team's quickest receiver for the 1st 10 yards so running his routes in the same zone as Marshall should force DBs to react early; ideally resulting in a route adjustment to open space or single coverage by Marshall or Hartline. Bess has the qualities of big, possession receiver who is likely to find more room to run on his shallow routes as Marshall pulls coverage toward him. Bunching the routes plus Henne's ability to quickly get the ball down-field should lead to flat-footed DBs and improved YAC.

Cam a valuable player but I think his snaps will be reduced as the Phins have less formations with WRs near the boundaries. Instead, I think we'll frequently see Hartline will line on the same side as Marshall with Bess coming in for 3 WR sets. These additional formations should make DBs less comfortable as compared to previous years where they could use the boundary in coverage on almost every play. Moreover, the ability to attack middle of the field with 2 or 3 WR that are also good blockers can open up the outside for Ricky runs and swing passes (remember the damage Hillis did as the Dolphins shut down Marshall).

As for Ginn, I wanted the Dolphins to keep him until a day after the trade when I'd finally realized that he was too ineffective with short, intermediate, and hot read routes. And for plays where I thought he be dangerous compliment to Marshall, it would have required the team to game plan for a back-up player. Instead, I expect Henning and Sparano will borrow heavily from the Saints playbook. This requires the receivers to provide quick, open targets for Henne. If the protection provides additional time, then Henne can hit the receiver further along in their route, who can take advantage of open space as the coverage and support breaks down.

 

Well what about Pat White? Cuz I've been putting forth quite an effort...

 

We just got rid of Ted Ginn. Calm down now, Pat White's time will come.

 

That's the part I don't think has even a remote chance of happening this year. It is incredibly unlikely that there would be two UDFAs that would be an upgrade over Cam.

The Dolphins can run deep stuff with Marshall and Hartline. Sure it would be nice if Cam could too, but he still has a lot of value. And it's pretty obvious from last year's snap counts that while Bess is our best slot player Cam is a pretty good slot player too.

The bottom line is that Cam can play all three WR slots and catches everything. That's not easy to find and you're not going to throw that away just for speed. I think that down the line Cam may be in trouble, but there's no way there are two UDFAs on our roster who can be more productive than Cam this year.