Is Chris Johnson as "sure fire" #1 pick?

I wouldnt trade unless it was 5 and something else....

CJ is a surefire #1 yes....the kid is legit.....AP puts it on the ground too much....

 

AP fumbles too often and will probably lose goal line touches to Toby Gerhart.

CJ is the undisputed #1 overall pick, but I have a problem with taking him there. I think he'll wear down unless he gets some help from both the passing game and his backup. Luckily for him, he missed out on the Curse of 370 by just 12 carries last season, so he's probably not due for an immediate breakdown.

If you don't have faith in CJ, then definitely take the trade (but hold out for something better than $50, whether it's a second draft pick or a month's supply of beer). At #5, look at either Michael Turner or Drew Brees. Probably Brees. You can get serviceable RBs in the 3rd and 4th rounds if need be.

 

How low has Peyton Manning's stock fallen? He's ranked #20 in some draft rooms.

 

If I had the option of trading into either 2,3 or 4 then I would take the trade. But because your trading back to 5 I think you would miss out on the premier RB's in CJ, Peterson, Rice and MJD. At 5 you have the option of Gore (who is a risk because of injury), Andre Johnson or Drew Brees. I personally wouldn't trade out of the top 4 spots, but if your comfertable with guys outside of the top 4 then by all means trade out.

 

At 5 he's basically choosing between Michael Turner and Frank Gore at RB, or going QB or WR.

I think at 5 you defer your RB situation until the 3rd round, take either a QB or WR in the first, and the other position in round 2, then RB in round 3. You could conceivably wind up with a team of Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, LeSean McCoy, Pierre Thomas, and Brandon Marshall.

 

Been thinking about picking at 5 and have to say its a tough call.

Gore and Turner could have monster years if they can stay on the field. While you will get steady, high quality production from both Andre Johnson or Brees.

If you pick inside the top 4 your choices are much easier. But that 5th spot is tough.

 

At 5, you're either committing to a second tier RB or a first tier WR or QB. It boils down to your league's scoring rules. If it's PPR, then WR is probably the best choice. If QBs get 6 TDs, then a QB like Brees is a good choice. (Though you could wait until the 2nd or 3rd and get Rodgers, Rivers, or Schaub.) Otherwise, then a guy like Turner is the way to go. I would not take Gore at 5. Maybe 7, but not 5.

Pick #5 is really a QB/WR slot this year.

 

with that scoring system i'd definately wait on a QB/WR with a Top 5 pick(imo even in the 1st round).

 

Actually, with that scoring system, it means taking a WR early is better than taking a QB early. If you trade down to #5, take Andre Johnson. If you don't, take Chris Johnson at #1 overall, and when your turn comes back up, take the best QB available and the best WR available. You'll probably wind up with Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers or Philip Rivers, and DeSean Jackson or Roddy White.

 

QBs go way too early, but at the same time, they always fall. If Rodgers is gone, that means someone overdrafted him, and another QB will fall. It could be Tom Brady, it could be Peyton Manning, it could be Philip Rivers. But someone will be there. I wouldn't sweat it too much.

Doubling up on the WRs at 20 and 21 makes more sense than taking a QB there, at least to me. I think people draft quarterbacks way too early in general. They just aren't as supremely important in fantasy football as they are in real football, especially with 4 points for passing TDs. WR is relatively shallow compared to RB, and the value at #20 and #21 is there. You could get Roddy White and DeSean Jackson, or Larry Fitzgerald and Miles Austin. The key is to get them at 20 and 21, because those guys won't be there at 40 and 41. Well, Austin might.

If you stay at #1, I can see your draft unfolding like this:
#1 - Chris Johnson
#20 - Aaron Rodgers/Philip Rivers/Tom Brady/Matt Schaub
#21 - Roddy White/DeSean Jackson/Vincent Jackson

If you go down to #5, it's probably more like this:
#5 - Andre Johnson
#20 - Same as above
#21 - Ryan Grant/Rashard Mendenhall/Ryan Mathews/DeAngelo Williams

I personally like the latter team more than the former. The RBs are nearly as good in terms of fantasy production, you'll get the same QBs no matter what, and you've got the best WR in football to match that nearly as good RB production. But if you're really, really nervous, instead of the $50, take $30 and swap #21 for his #15 in addition to swapping your #1 for his #5. You can then take Brees at #5 or a guy like Rodgers or Manning at #15, and you'll still get a damn good RB and WR combo no matter when you draft one. Then go and buy yourself a nice dinner and a six pack of Yuengling, because you're going to have a pretty good first two rounds.

 

I like AP with the first pick

 

Fumbles too often and Toby Gerhart will steal goal line touches.

 

I would have zero problem selecting Gore at 5. But its all about you're comfort level with the player. I know his big concern is health but in my opinion any big time RB has that concern and his production is just too good to pass.

I think this is the year I'll say pass on WRs in the first 3 rounds unless I somehow can get Andre Johnson at 10 or later. I just feel like there is so many to fill out your roster.

Also, I'll be stunned if Rodgers makes it to the last pick in the 2nd. Unless he is in an expert draft, where everyone will wait on QBs, he'll go top 15. He is even my number 1 QB but I know most prefer Brees.

 

CJ is 1st until proven otherwise.

I like AP too and I'm not ready to buy him losing GL work. The drawbacks with him are Farve finishing his career and not catching many passes (if you play ppr).

MJD is the safest 2nd pick, IMO.

 

MJD actually went first in our draft last year and we had a chuckle. Until that person won our championship. Even worse, not only was it the first time that person was in our league (in 10 years) it was the first time we ever let a woman play in our league. A lot of trash talking after that championship game.

 

Don't leave out the fumbles. Those are a big problem, since they tend to end drives and reduce stats as a result. Also, they do count against in FF scoring.

As for Gerhart, I don't think Minnesota drafts him in the 2nd round unless they intended to use him. If they just wanted to replace Chester Taylor, they could have waited two rounds.

 

This.....I wouldnt count out a Brady/Moss 20/21 deal going on, in which case you would have CJ, Brady, and Moss.....wow, wack a solid defense(if they give you ST yardage as well) on the way back, or go RB......

as well I think Santana Moss and or Devin Thomas will have a good year, with McNabb tossing it around in Wash...

 

Since there are currently no "elite" defenses in the league, it's a mistake to take a defense that early. At least based on the scoring system used in my league the last ten years, the top 2 or 3 defenses (fantasy scoring) changes every single year and is unpredictable.

 

Yea, but it's not enough to shy away from him yet. They drafted Gerhart as insurance, imo. I don't see them just throwing him into a big time-share asap.

 

yeah if they give points scored for ST yardage, or TD's it makes sense.....not that early, or saying that would be my method either...just saying....I played in a league where it favored having a good defense/st unit, I was totally taking back, how some of these defenses were getting 18-30 point a game consistantly too....

 

I didn't say they'd go into a time share, but that Gerhart would steal goal line touches. Gerhart's running style is perfectly suited for goal line sub work. I can see Gerhart on the field on 1st and goal and 2nd and goal. Also, I don't view AP with the same sort of borderline mysticism that a lot of NFL commentators do, so that probably factors into my thoughts.

 

As in you don't see him as one of the best RBs in the league? His hype has passed his talent, IMO. There are def other RBs out there who excell in areas that he doesn't (Ray Rice).

Idk. I can see the case where they would use Gerhart like that. But, I don't see it happening unless Peterson starts off the season with more fumbling. The situation prob won't be settled early.

 

It's true, in my league, the top defenses get as many points as top RBs and Top QBs, sometimes more. But every year someone in my league picks the top defense from the previous year at the end of the 4th or beginning of the 5th and there always ends up being 2-4 defenses that come out of nowhere and score more points on average. Used to be, you could select Baltimore and Pittsburgh in 5th and 6th rounds, knowing it was a solid, likely top 5 pick, but not anymore.

Look at our defense from 2008 to 2009, dropped off ~ 10 turnovers from one year to the next (compensated a little by Ginn's returns). I guarantee that someone will take the Saints defense too early this season, and I guarantee that their defense will not score as many fantasy points just because I doubt they get 35-40 turnovers 2 seasons in a row.

 

I don't think that someone who turns the ball over as often as he does can be considered truly great, no. Right now, he's Tiki Barber II, not Emmitt Smith II. And for the record, this is the same reason I think Favre is overrated: he turns the ball over too often. You can't win games like that, as we saw in the 2009 NFC Championship Game.

Were I building an NFL roster from scratch, there are other RBs I'd take ahead of AP. Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, and Maurice Jones-Drew all come to mind. There are actually a few others I'd take as well, due to their superior receiving ability, like LeSean McCoy.

When AP fixes his fumble problem and if he improves as a receiver, then I'll consider him the best RB in the league.

 

In a non PPR league MJD and Ray Rice lose value considerably imo.

It should boil down to:
Peterson
Johnson
Turner
Deangelo Williams

I am of the opinion that Johnson is the riskiest of the four. Tennessee has an average line and average receivers so stretching the field could be a challenge for them. He and Williams will see a lot of 8 in the box.

Turner is coming off an injury but Atlanta's zone blocking scheme is excellent and I expect them to rebound in a big way. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Turner replicates his 2008 season.

Ultimately I would go peterson. He has the best combination of players around him and he has a history of scoring double digit TD's every year. He's shown himself to be durable as well. In addition, Gerhart is there simply to take over Chester Taylor's role who defected in free agency. Gerhart will not steal carries anymore so then Taylor did. He will offer a change of pace. Fumbles are an issue for Minny in real life, less so in fantasy. He has that job locked down as well as any RB has their job locked down in the league. I would stay at one and take him.

Agree.

Exactly, its just not happening that way. If anything, peterson's role may increase if anything should happen to Favre where he either gets hurt/isn't healed from offseason surgery or his skills diminish to the point where he simply isn't close to being even at the level he was last year. There just is no scenario where Peterson isn't the safest pick out there and as close as there is to a lock for 1200/12TD minimum and there is simply no other player that has the track record that you can say that about them.

For the record, if it was a PPR league I would go MJD and not even look back. Jacksonville has poop-else offensively.

 

I'm not big on Turner in PPR. One dimensional guys are always a little more risky game for game than pass-catchers like Rice, MJD, Gore, etc.

The more ways they can score points, the less likely they'll completely $&@! the bed.

 

Totally agree, but this league isnt PPR and Turner is a good bet for a big year in my opinion. Carolina and Tampa are 4 of his games and they are in full rebuilding mode pretty much or at least should be. New Orleans is the champs but they're not exactly stout vs the run. So right off the bat the schedule bodes well for Turner

 

I know, I was just sayin.