Putting a value on explosive plays and why Brandon Marshall is a Dolphin

Well, wouldn't billick's forumula be more effective if he also included Time of Possession as well?

He makes the assumption that because players rotate in that wearing down an opponent is not as possible as it used to be, I tend to disagree as teams with explosive play offenses take a lead then attempt to milk the clock via the running game.

I'd also think a penalties created metric would be great as well, a deep pass that draws a pass interference flag is just as valuable as a long reception, but may not be counted as a "explosive play".

 

I think the acquisition of Brandon Marshall (at least I hope) shows the direction we're trying to go in. I'll give Parcells the benefit of the doubt and assume he knows full well this is a pass offense league now.

I also hope that Nolan's schemes will result in more turnovers.

 

While this does speak heavily to the impact an explosive player like Marshall can have, it also holds to some effect to the defense as well since it's a differential.

It seems like a very hard stat to correlate to the field. The reason I say that is I think, obviously, a big part of the differential is based on strength of schedule. Then again, most of the playoff teams were perennial playoff teams with the exception of a few...

Either way, if nothing else, its an indication that playmakers like Marshall are important if we want to be a playoff/superbowl caliber team for years to come. Was there any information as to the explosive play stats before being converted to a differential, i.e which teams were the top in creating explosive plays, versus the ones that were the top in preventing them?

 

Really? I'd like to read more about that Rafi as it would seem to me that if having a good defense is not important, then allowing the other team more opportunities to run more plays will naturally lead to more scoring.

I'm thinking of 08 when we consistently won ToP and +/- ratio and consistently won games without an explosive offense or particularly good defense.

Just a thought, it would put some meat on the whole "the rules favor the Wr" theory.

 

all these comments so the link must be working... but it looks broken to me

 

I think that was more of a product of turnover ratio though. We had the top turnover ratio in the league, and also had a trick in the Wildcat that for a good 2-3 week period, and periodically after that, was not able to be stopped. For that matter, the WildCat further attests to the "explosive play element."

I do think there's something to say for ToP, but look at the Indy game. I mean thats ToP taken to an extreme, and it proved that Gamechanging explosive plays trump ToP.

 

To me they worked together, a positive +/- ratio and over 4 ypc in the running game meant we hung onto the ball and took the ball away then ground out first downs that kept the clock moving.

Aberration, it was only the 4th time in NFL history that had happened, a better study is the loss to NOLA, we dominated ToP for 2.25 qtrs, then the Saints flipped it and THEY dominated ToP to finish the game.

Toss in our +/- ratio was also flipped in that game.

 

His New England Patriots teams were a very pass happy team in the 1990's.

They passed it 2579 times and ran it 1881 times, that's works out to Passing the ball 40.29 times a game and running it 29.39.... also his Jets team passed the ball more than they ran it. 2 of the 3 years he was there.

If you look at who we have as running backs, then look at who we have at WR's playing with a young QB, you can't blame Tony for running it so much......but we still passed the ball more then we have run it.

Anyways to me the NFL has been a passing league since around 1983, when Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and John Elway became apart of it,and Dan Fouts was already in the NFL making DB's look silly, then you had Warren Moon come into the nfl the next year so i think Bill knows whats up.

But i will say if i was a Dolfan and the only football games i watched in the pass 11 years were Miami Dolphins games, i would think the nfl just became a passing league.

 

Earlier than that. At least 1978, when rule changes opened up scoring and put defenses at a disadvantage.

One thing that bothers me about people who say "it's a passing league" is that they don't quite get what that means. Most people seem to think that it means if you pass often, you'll have more success. The opposite is actually true: the more you pass, the less likely you are to win. Success via passing comes when you lower your attempts and wring more yardage out of each attempt: that is, pass efficiently, not often. Passing YPA is an important stat, while passing yards is generally meaningless outside of fantasy football.

The reason we won games in 2008 was because Chad Pennington was an efficient passer, putting up 7.3 YPA. For all the talk about him having a noodle arm, he did a better job of getting the ball down the field with each pass than Chad Henne did in 2009.

 

Did that end up being the margin of victory? A Fg instead of a TD at the end of a long drive that is to say?

Perhaps, but without penalty flags thrown for pass interference statistics that is not settled, it may be suggested it is settled, but that is based on personal opinion more than anything else.

That stat would particularly helpful for the playoff games.

 

I would say an increase in passing has substantially more to do with the proliferation of the spread than anything else, by far. It happened at the HS and college levels before it ever happened in the NFL.

 

I agree 100%...............I just say 1983 because as a 9 year old dolfan at the time that's when i really started to see it.....In part because we had Dave Woodley At QB before then , lol.

To me it's just a HUGE myth that Bill doesn't like passing the ball, when all he's done " like any good coach " is put the ball in the hands of his best players........Not matter if they were a TE, RB, WR, or QB.

 

Not at all. The scheme favors the offense. Once theres a defensive scheme that defends the spread well, then the league will move on to the next thing.

 

Well, Henne is our QB now instead of a Lemon/Fiedler/etc., so I'm guessing they get that. You KNOW Wanny would still be propping up whatever journeyman he could pull off the scrap heap and giving him the reins. Ahh, so nice to have a real QB.

 

To have several Qb's St Louis, Henne, Pennington, Thiggy even Pat White, we never had it that good under Wanny, heck there was rarely a Qb controversy because the backup Qb's weren't worth mentioning.

 

And the evidence keeps piling up. You keep digging up gems like this and people just might have to start believing us. Or maybe it's going to take a Dolphins Superbowl victory with Chad Henne or Brandon Marshall as MVP to settle the debate. I'd be ok with that...

 

its not really about believing in your theory unless you are convincing dan henning.
look man we can't throw to marshall on every down and become a one trick pony.
we still have to be able to run the football and play good defense. we did one of those well last year.
i love having brandon and the "chunk yardage" he will bring. hell, no one will be able to stack the box on us like they have in the past. have to work that to your advantage and run the football. i believe in balance even with a top WR. also as ive stated before i am not a fan at all of shootouts.
excited about this offense now but with the weapon having been added there should be no excuses

 

Who said we have to throw to Marshall every down?

Who said we shouldn't run anymore?

Who said defense isn't important?

Not me. And I'm pretty sure not the author of this thread. The point is, explosive plays are correlated to winning games. The numbers prove it beyond reasonable doubt. And obviously our FO believes this also or they wouldn't have brought in Brandon Marshall.

 

Eh, never buy into mass stats KillahP, football is a team by team, game by game basis with tons of variables such as injuries and opponents development of players and good old fashioned dumb luck on occasion.

For example, Rafi can point to stats that purport to say "pass the ball" yet the run first, defense first Jets made it to the AFC Championship game, that style puts them in the less successful GENERAL profile, the reality is, they were in the Championship Game with a completely opposite profile than Rafi suggests is "the way".

Let me add, long plays are needful, no matter whether or not a offense is primarily a running based one or passing based one, even the Jets with the #1 rushing attack broke long runs and hit on deep passes, however they are not the be all end all in terms of things such as turnovers and ToP imho.

 

No one is saying for us to throw more. We're just asking for a better passing attack. And with Marshall, we have that now.

 

we all want big time plays and that is why marshall is here.

im just giving you a reminder that having a top WR doesn't necessarily win you a championship.

 

i think we agree you still have to move the chains and play to your strengths which imo is running the football. Our OL is beefy and getting better all the time. as far as the passing attack and a true weapon no one will ever accuse me of not loving gravy

 

Most big plays dont occur in a vaccum, they happen because the defense was fooled, a mismatch/mistake was exploited, or the play was set up by a steady diet of short to intermediate plays. Teams who are winning can afford to sit back and play it safe, losing teams must force the issue, exposing themselves to big plays in the process.

The same chicken/egg debate can be applied to turnovers. I'd say you turn the ball over because youre losing more than youre losing because you turn the ball over. The run/stop the run mantra is one of the oldest cliches in the game but are teams who run and stop the run more likely to win, or is it that teams who are winning are more likely to run and less likely to face running attempts?

All I can say for sure is that Marshall gives us the balance we lacked last year. In 08-09 seasons, we had to run run run regardless of if it was working and everyone knew it. This year, if we're facing a team that struggles vs. the pass we can come out and throw it 30 times in the first half, get a lead and use the run game to milk the clock. If we play a team with a suspect run D we can use the traditional attack mode. If teams over play the run, now we have the tools to punish them in the pass game. The old book on how to stop our offense is useless at this point. I dont care if that leads to more chunk yards or not to be honest. If teams want to sit in a shell and play coverage, I'd be more than happy to throw curls, run the ball, and pound them out of it. But once we establish that we can punish teams with the jab, then they will be open for the left hook or the straight right, its pick your poison.

 

Well, the "we need explosive plays" line of thought is correct, you do, imho every area on the team, from the passing game to special teams has to be able to pressure whomever we are playing, in every phase of the game, there should never be "gimmie" breathing space for an opponent.

That said, look at the 2010 Dolphins roster, we average 26 yrs of age, on defense we are looking at a unit with very little collective experience on the OLB corps, in the secondary and at NT, imho grind it out, ball control football is a great way not to expose them to much early in the season while they are learning how to play in the NFL.

I've said I look at this year alot like I did at 2008, only on Defense instead of on offense, the unit has been rebuilt and manned with Rooks and newbie starters shoot out, high scoring football is the last thing we need to engage in this year, at least until November, and even then the Rooks will hit the Rookie Wall.

Smartly they have rebuilt the ST squad more or less, but the Offense with those bulls on the Oline and Ricky and Ronnie will have to perform well early..along with Brandon Marshall...they will have to keep those playoff caliber offenses we face early in the season off the field..

 

Kill the clock, yeah, against the Packers or the Vikings. Not against the Bills, Browns, Raiders, Lions, Bears, Bengals, Ravens etc. Definitely dont milk it vs. the Jets, I want Sanchez throwing the ball as much as possible. In general, I'd like to see us pass to set up the run except for when it plays into the strength of the team we're facing.

Getting a lead and forcing the opposing team to pass can protect the D just as well as milking the clock, and I feel more confident about our secondary than our run D at this point. On reputation alone teams will be expecting us to run, so use the play action, look for big plays early, then bring the hammer once we've stolen away the opponents aggressiveness and hopefully built a nice lead.

 

you spoke about balance before suddenly you want to throw every down.
we've seen this happen many times. you misfire on first down , ditto on second down. brings up third and long. 3 and out
you guys want to hide our defense
impossible

 

Impossible?

Hardly, why do you suppose that collection of misfits played so well in 08?

They faced 5 minutes less of offense a game on average.

 

2008 is water under the bridge man
it has nothing to do with our defense in 2010

 

Strategy is strategy bro, do you suppose Sparano tasted that success and now will move away from it because it is 2010?

Dan Henning is still the OCoordinator, the pieces are still there, wanna bet what the 2010 dolphins offense plays like?

Henne was only flinging the ball around because the D was so atrocious later in the season, otherwise it would have been R+R express and move the sticks, now with Marshall, we can expand that a bit, as well as take the extra man out of the box, which will help the Defense with it's OJT.

Recall if it isn't Wake and Q on Opening Day, it very well could be Anderson and Misi...and who is playing FS again?

 

It was called the "Mel Blunt rule". You puppies look it up, the old dogs know, it changed the game forever. Pretty much ended the Dolphins dynasty and the Steelers and Raiders teams from that era too. The Steelers rebounded quickly and kept winning, the Dolphins not so much til Dan the man arrived.

 

No.

 

I can't think of anyone around here that would do that. Can you Padre?