Getting a #1 WR

Except the entire OP that I quoted made it out like Parcells is the coach. Heck there isn't even a replacement in place so technically no one was brought in as soon as possible, because if they really wanted someone would be DC right now. Parcells doesn't have to agree with everything Sparano or Ireland does, he put them in place because he trusted them to do a good job not so he would have to hold their hand every step of the way.

 

Wait scrap the whole post

The jets just proved you don't need a QB or receivers. We've got Ronnie and Ricky so we are in position to make a run next year


DAMN THAT TUNA IS GOOD!!!!(sarcasm)

 

we were at the point where we needed to add playmakers this year. We failed on both Pat White and Pat Turner. Our best playmaker on defense is best suited for a different scheme. If we don't send a 2nd to Arizona for Boldin, I'll be pissed.

 

We were no where close to needing to go after playmakers last offseason.
I will agree pat white was an irresponsible pick (that is for jetssuck) we should have never ever burned a second round pick for him and the result this season was confirmation as to why there was controversy on draft day
as far as patrick turner i wont call him a bust until he actually plays
there have been many wr who develop down the road. not banking on it but not closing that door yet.
this team still needs way too much help on the defensive side of the football to be tossing away another second round pick
especially on Boldin
oft injured, aging receivers is not a dire need at this point GISH
that would send us backwards now
im not trying to sell you on that or sway your opinion
you may be pissed if it doesnt happen but you just might be more pissed if it does
in the long run

 

Agreed. I believe that our offense is just a #1 TE away from being set. I'd actually keep the WR corps we have (just add a speedster to return punts/backup Ginn Jr) and replace Fasano with an athletic Antonio Gates type as the #1 receiver.

I'd keep Haynos over Fasano as I think Haynos has more upside. Haynos can block as good as Fasano and he can catch just as good. Except Haynos is taller, slightly more athletic, and can add more muscle to his frame. Haynos looks like the perfect #2 TE.

The #3 TE can battle it out between Nalbone and Sperry. But our starter needs to be a go to guy in the Gresham mold. Not saying to use the #12 on Gresham though, as I'm on the Weatherspoon train at WILB.

 

That's why I said we will look for a WR in mid rounds or FA in the first sentence of my post. I was just stating my opinion because it's not a big reach to suggest that some will want Dez with the #12 pick. Just stating my opinion on the matter. As far as Cody what makes you so sure he's a bust?

 

for the most part, the common denominator is the QB in this equation

don't look for a major purchase of a WR in free agency;
we acquired Ryan Grice-Mullen, a rising star @WR in the CFL,
have Brennan Marion returning from injury,
never got a look at Pat Turner,a purported RedZone target,
all three of which need to be properly evaluated & coached up
could be something good. then we have the start:
our emerging PlayMaker enters year two Brian Hartline,
Devone Bess (reunited w/ Grice-Mullen)
& Mr. Dependable, Greg Camarillo.

look for a high draft pick @ WR to add one more to the receiving corp potential

 

They proved that having the best defense in the NFL, combined with substantial luck, can get you into the playoffs.

 

Lol if those first 3 ever step on the field in a regular season game I will be amazed. We absolutely cannot count on them doing ANYTHING.

And Hartline, Bess and Cam - while solid in their roles - are not playmakers.

 

almost forgot Pat White who will be given the opportunity
to work into the lineup on SpecialTeams & the ReceivingCorp
as well as develop
in the WildCat & sundry trick plays: holder, reverses. etc

we have a full house @ receiving & all three, now four will surely be looked @ very carefully

my expectation is we add one high draft choice @ WR w/ serious play making potential

 

It doesn't matter whether people here new about them, although I can say I had hopes for Austin and Colston, the point is that they fit the size parameters to fill the role and had all at least flashed potential to do what they did. We don't have anybody that looks like they could even potentially be a #1.

 

We put as much consistent pressure on the QB as other top 10 defenses did. If you watched the Ravens/Pats game last week you would have seen many plays where Brady had all day. If you look at sacks and hurries it is a fact that our QB pressure was in the top 10.

And defenses winning championships is a myth. Defense is not what primarily gets you into the playoffs. Here is what I posted in response to another, similar thread:

People like to think that if we just stopped this play or that we'd have won so many more games (4 is the popular number), but statistically even top 10 defenses don't stop that many more plays. You can hope that the additional plays stopped would be those key plays that would make the difference but the odds are against it.

So what do we need to make the playoffs? I looked at what the various playoff teams had in common. The one thing they all had in common was that none had a negative turnover differential. This stat tends to fluctuate every year for every team though, so I imagine that it has a large luck factor to it.


The next factor that was most common among playoff teams was that they averaged at least 7.0 YPA. Ten of the twelve playoff teams had YPA of at least 7.0.


Now of course you need balance. A great defense can help compensate for a poor pass offense a bit. Of the teams that made the playoffs this year 10 of the 12 had a YPA above 7.0. The two that didn't (Jets and Cincy) had top 5 defenses. But the balance has to be tilted towards the offense. Six of the top 10 defensive teams made the playoffs and obviously the other six that made it were out of the top 10. The lowest was the 25th ranked defense which is actually lower than our ranking.



And BTW I'm not a stats guy. I find reading them monotonous and boring. But I also realize that in a game with so many inter-dependent parts my observations provide, at best, an incomplete picture and at worst completely unreliable.

Now stats are imperfect as well. There are many types out there and they'll steer you to many different conclusions. But some stats have been repeatedly proven to be correlated with winning. YPA on offense is far and away the most correlated to winning. It's fairly consistent that you need an offensive YPA above 7.0 or you have almost no shot to get to the SB. Even the Jets which everybody uses as an example of a bad pass offense (using uncorrelated stats) has been above 7.0 in the post season (7.4). BTW the only teams with YPA over 7.0 that didn't make the playoffs this year had negative turnover ratios.


So getting that passing number above 7.0 is simply the most critical thing we have to do. It practically guarantees that you make the playoffs as long as your turnover ratio isn't negative. Fixing the defense won't do that. It'll help and but just not as much as fixing that passing attack.

 

Besides it took Austin and Rice what, 3 years to develop? Jackson 4? Cotchery Im just going to throw out - Braylon is the #1 for the Jets, and if he possessed a pair of hands instead of stumps he would be great.

Colston has dropped off in production since his rookie year as other WRs have stepped up (like Meachum and Henderson), and that Saints O is built to spread it around through Brees.

We need to add a playmaker and some speed to our WR corps badly. A reliable target for Henne, someone to make Ds not stack the box, someone who can score on any play, can get those chunk yards, can make all the other WRs better just by being on the field.

We can either pray one falls out of the sky, or we can go get one.

 

parcells believed in austin that is why he signed him as an UNDRAFTED FREE AGENT in 2006 just like he might believe in hartline i dont see that situation being much different. hartline is a fighter and a scrapper just like austin.
in fact jerry jones never believed in austin that is why he went out and wasted picks on roy williams
he gotta big name that is a big disappointment when he had his guy there the whole time
that is why you never count out what you have and how they may develop

 

You dont count ON them either. And Hartline does not have the raw ability of Austin. Hes not as fast for one.

 

when your defense cant stop anyone and you run the risk of blowing picks on either a big name has been or another potential bust WR i think you do.
at least for another year
to see where the development goes

 

The difference is that it's not about belief or wishing on a star. It's about whether or not Hartline has the physical attributes to be a #1. Austin had those size/speed parameters, Hartline doesn't. Hartline may become a very good #2 b/c he's a fighter and a scrapper, but that still leaves us w/o a #1.

 

everyone will upgrade on the receiving end of the ball
as the IceMan comes into his own
BrianHartline is a PlayMaker in the making
& the rest of the stable is solid. Do believe
we will add a high draft choice w/ PlayMaker potential
to this years' draft, the rest is all about defense.

 

ah come on man you talk about those parameters that austin has yet the guy went completely undrafted
it is easy in hindsight to say those sort of things because austin has developed into a good player
youre cherry picking
the more i listen to you ramble on about how defense doesnt matter and it is all about scoring the more i am convinced you want some big time so called #1 wr just so you can hear yourself say it
the media would be saying it is the final missing piece and it would allow you to toot your own horn
until gameday when the brutal truth slaps everyone including you in the face and reality sets in that the defense is in shambles and we still cant stop anyone
ill ask anyone who wants to ignore the defensive side of the ball this question once again....did you not watch the Marino years?
we could score at will but couldnt stop anyone. where in the f did that get us huh...huh.
no the theory of defense is unimportant as long as you are scoring points is a ridiculous one.
wont buy it never will
i bet the fo sees it that way as well
so dont be too disappointed when they dont waste picks on someone elses trash or a first round receiver
it wont happen

 

I still think our receiving corps is at least passable in terms of getting us through a playoff year. It's definitely not our strength, but I'd give them a C+/B- in terms of them playing to the best of their abilities.

Our Defense though, even on a good day just gets eaten alive.

I see the logic in getting a WR, a NT, a Safety, or a star ILB in the making within the first 3 rounds personally. I just think we'll be hurt a lot more if we don't address NT, ILB, or Safety than if we don't address WR.

Thankfully none of us are in the shoes to decide what's best for the team, we can all just speculate without worry of reprisal

 

Friend SeanP:
obviously, for the most part, I agree w/you
having said that
Hartline is on the rise, however, GinnJr is a bust
we need to go high in the draft for a WR w/ play making potential
look to free agency for your NT and/or ILB as well as a second helping in the draft
although I like Clemons, some competition @ free safety wouldn't hurt

 

Calling Ginn a bust is silly. He had ONE bad season...and it was only part of the season. Has he lived up to his draft status? No. Will he ever? Probably not, as he is not ever going to be a premier number one receiver in the NFL, and that is what you should get when you draft a receiver at number 9. Can he be a productive receiver? Yes he can. If all you look at is THIS YEAR, then he is a bust. But this year caught everyone off guard, I think, because after last year, I don't think anyone could have realistically thought he would struggle with catching the ball.

 

Hartline is what he is. He may get a bit better, but even then, he will never be Miles Austin. Lets take a look at Wes Welker, the best of the guys whom I would say is Hartlines style. Guy catches the ball more than anyone. But how many TDs? Answer, 4. How many times did you see him streaking downfield for a big gain? Not many, you saw him catching a 5 yard slant and picking up another 4-5 after the catch.

We need a guy who can get a catch for 10 yards, and turn it into a catch for 80 yards and a score. Hartline doesnt do that, he gets caught from behind because he doesnt have the speed. Now if you pair him with a guy who DOESNT get caught, then that transforms the whole offense. Teams will no longer stack against the run, they wont be able to swarm the 5-10 yard passing routes, your boy Hartline would become even better as the shorter routes and midfield open up and give him some room.

If you think Hartline or Turner will magically morph in Miles Austin your in for a world of dissapointment.

Our QB is a guy with a cannon for an arm - we need to USE IT. And when Sparano talks about getting people who can get chunk yards, I think you can bet they will look hard at getting some people who can do just that.

Is defense unimportant? No, and nobody is saying it is. But to get a great defense we need to add at minimum maybe 4 pieces. However, 1 top notch WR and possibly a better pass catching tight end and might be able to transform our offense into one the leagues elite.

 

once again you are one of many who joined a long line to be jumping for joy and anylizing miles austin and his accomplishments this season.
if i would have have asked you about him 15 months ago you would have x's for eyes because at that time he was a no name except for a few nice returns. I ask again if he had all this skill why was he austin not drafted. dont give me the bs about the small division 2 school crap either because that holds no water. he was the all time leading receiver at monmouth and still no one cared enough about him except bill parcells who took a chance on the guy. i never stated that my boy LOL hartline will turn into miles austin but merely stated that the situations are very similar because parcells obviously believes in hartlines skill set obviously. its called leverage and i used it as an example as to why we don't have to reach on a #1 type wr this year and instead concentrate on defense.
you lock me into one point and you stick to it and try to turn me around.
it didnt work

 

Didnt he get bess and hartline ?

 

I think there is a difference between playmakers and role players. Bess' 3 career TDs and career long play of 37 yards don't put him in the "playmaker" category.

Hartline showed a knack for coming up with big plays but in terms of speed / size to do it consistently I am not sure we should rely on him as a "playmaker". As a #2 he may come up with some big plays and be a great role player - I just don't know that you want to count on him as a big-play guy.

 

banter, mindless banter...

on the receiving corp:
1) our over-all receiving corp will improve with the IceMan's development as a QB. they will step up as he steps up
2) BrianHartline is on his way to serious PlayMaker status. He has all the tools: speed, quickness, size tenacity, hands & attitude. year two for Hartline will be the unveiling of his PlayMaker status, given that Henne steps up his game & I have no doubt that he will
3) yes, GinnJr. is a nice guy, but he is bust @ WR. not all is lost: Ricky, Ronnie & JT are really nice guys too & can play football. get over it. they already tried to move GinnBoy @ mid-season, w/ no takers. He's done nothing but deteriorate since his attempted removal.
4) consequently, we will go after a high draft pick @ WR w/ play making potential

the rest of the effort will be in securing key defensive players

 

Please show proof that they tried to move him (not to mention that a player can't be moved at midseason as the trade deadline is at week 6). Please prove that he deteriorated, especially considering he played better from weeks 11-17 than he did from weeks 3-10.

Otherwise I will have to assume the post is indeed mindless.

 

Friend Stitches:
it's true, it's true. they tried to move him before the dead line & found no takers. he has been gradually deteriorating throughout his tenure as a Dolphin. his promise has faded into profound disappointment.
you look it up & post it word for word if you think I've mislead you. please feel free to correct me
haven't got time for mindless banter about GinnJr. the would-be football player or assumptions

it is what it is
GoFish!
GinnJr. is a nice guy but he is a bust & now we find ourself in the market for a PlayMaker @ WR

 

So...no PROOF that they tried to move him? Define bust. If Ginn never lives up to #9 status, is he a bust? I don't think so. However, if YOU think that, then he will be a bust, because he will never, ever, ever be a premier number one wideout that you would take with a top ten pick. Doesn't mean he's a bust, though. Also, Ginn made reallybnice catches during the last five games or so of the season, so I think that all is not lost with him.

 

I repeat we do not need another injury prone player on this team let alone one that is going to cost us a 2nd round pick.We already have brown,smiley and grove to get hurt for us we do not need another one.Hell boldin didn't even play in playoffs this year why because he was hurt again!

 

If what you're hearing me say is that defense doesn't matter than clearly you are not listening.

I have said repeatedly that balance is important. The thing is that certain aspects of football are more correlated to winning than others. The list goes something like this:

1. Win the turnover battle
every playoff team did this
2. Pass the ball efficiently (7.0 YPA or better)
10 of the 12 playoff teams did the top 2
3. Stop the pass (7.0 YPA or less)
10 of the 12 playoff teams did 1 and 3. Over multiple years #2 is about 23% more correlated than #3.

You do those top 3 things and you'll win about 95% of the time. There are some other stats related to passing that are close like QB rating over 85%. But things like having a top 10 defense is way down the list. This year 6 of the 12 playoff teams had top 10 defenses and 6 didn't. It's about a 50/50 thing, not just this year but most. You might remember the Wanny years. We didn't even make the playoffs then unlike the Marino years.

So when I say what's most important I include certain aspects of the offense and defense. And I'm not just guessing. This has been proven repeatedly.

As for the WRs I was nit cherry picking or using hindsight. The prototype for a #1 WR is 6'2" 210 4.4 speed. You can get by with just two of the three if you excel at something like body control or hands. But in general whether or not you fit the parameters is a measureable, you either have it or you don't. If you don't you could be a decent WR. You could be a very good #2 like a Hines Ward, but your team will still be looking for a #1. There have been a few guys in history who overcame the long odds but in today's NFL the odds are even longer.

 

Friend Resnor:
might I add? love is blind

 

23rd...there's no love here. If Ginn doesn't make it, then he doesn't make it. However, I do think that you, and others, are having a bit of a knee jerk reaction. He had a disappointing season. If he does it next year, then dump him. I just don't think you judge a player based on one season, especially when he had showed nice progress prior to that season. Not to mention, dropping balls isn't something that Ginn has struggled with. His routes improved...if he gets ahold of his drops problem, which he seemed to do the last five games or so, he can be a very productive receiver. He won't ever be a premier number one, though...but that wouldn't qualify him as a bust, IMO.

 

i do appreciate your post and the work you put in.
perhaps i may have been a little too critical of your theories
i now understand you are a stat guy

i hope you can understand my point of view however when you look back at the season as a whole
too often the defense was far behind the offense in terms of doing their part on the field
was it personnel? yes it was
was it the scheme? once again i will say i believe it was
i want playmakers on offense believe me i just dont see it as big of a need at this point while the team is still being built
we can agree to disagree to a certain extent i guess
we gave up what like 24 points a game this season
in order to keep up with that you end up in a track meet and continue to put your defense back on the field.
it is a long season and that my friend will force you to drag your feet at the end
i love putting up points it is after all the objective
or one of them
glad you addressed balance

 

Actually I'm not a stats guy. I tend to find them boring. Most of my life I've focused on my observations. It's just that I realized that in a game with so many inter-dependent pieces it's impossible to actually know how much of an effect each element has. Does running the ball and controlling the clock help the defense more than scoring quickly and making the other team play from behind? Stuff like that.

So then I looked at stats, but you could use half to prove one thing and the other half to prove the opposite. That's when I looked at which stats were correlated with winning. What I found was that there were really only a few areas that had a high correlation. The vast majority of the stats, running the ball, stopping the run, even points scored or allowed were almost a 50/50 proposition. For example, some teams would run great and win others would run great and lose.

The few stats that had a high correlation were turnovers and passing and being able to stop the pass. These areas were far and away more important than everything else. And the passing stat that mattered was YPA. Total yards was useless. Also offensive passing was about 23% more correlated than passing defense. After winning the turnover battle this was the most common thing winning teams did. This has been verified and reverified over several years by multiple sources. So when I say that improving our pass offense would have the biggest impact, it's not really my opinion. I'm not just guessing like everybody who says I saw our D give up all these scores or we allowed x number of points. If we could only improve one area improving our pass offense would give us the most bang for our buck.

Now I don't believe that would be enough by itself. We need to be able to stop the pass as well. I just think that the players that are actually on the field on passing downs will have a greater effect than those that aren't. That's why improved FS play would result in more improvement than improved ILB play even though ILB is a weaker position than FS.