http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...k-dolphins-camp-s0726sbjul26,0,5594927.column He makes a great argument, now the opposing argument is posed by a Patsies fan who posted a reply: Sadly for the response, teams repeat only at a 49% clip, so what happened "last year' means as little to those teams as it does to the 2009 version of the Dolphins. And it would appear to me that he then recycles his argument about last year vs this year, last year's schedule and our opponent's records this year means little, he needed to go back to 2007 and then project the wins totals from the teams we faced in 08, but even then Divisional Winners repeat at a slightly less then 50% clip, his argument relies on thing staying static "last year" vs "this year".
Dolphins not getting love from Vegas. The only reason why I'm not throwing my arms up about it is because Vegas disses FAU every year.
Well, I'm not suprised. No one should expect any love from anyone until we go out there and shut everyone up. I guarantee you If we take care of business this year, our win totals at vegas would increase next year. Not that it means anything.
I love it, for once, Vegas is going to lose money on a betting line. It is going to be doubly enjoyable to watch the Fins make so many writers and prognosticators eat their words this year. Just like last year!
Vegas just tries to even out the betting. The line only represents what the betting public is putting their money on.
They won't lose if there's equal money on each side and according to the article, there is. Vegas just reflects the public's opinion anyway. The really mis-informed ones are the football fans. A large group has bought the WC is a gimmick line and they think the Ravens came up with some magic defense to stop it. They also see the highlights and they think that's all we did. The second big misconception is that CP has to be injured b/c it's his second year. It's happened a few times but that's a small statistical sample. There's no reason that CP is anymore likely to be injured than any other QB. The better odds are a QB improving his second year in the same offense. The third big thing is the schedule difficulty. There are a few stats out there that make it seem much harder, but a deeper look shows that it might be one game harder than last season and that all of our division opponents also have more difficult schedules. Another smaller fan mis-calculations is that they completely ignored the signing of JT. He may not be the league Def. MVP anymore but he should be better than the injured, out of position player that still averaged one sack every other game last season. There are other reasons that may or may not pan out as well, but these seem to be the main reasons that the fans have such a low opinions about or chances this year.
Vegas worries me just a little bit they are all about odds & money & have no dog in the fight Hope to see their collective minds change in a more positive direction by the beginning of the season however with everything, I think when the rubber meets the road, Miami will be in the post season games I still believe the road to the SuperBowl will pass through Dolfandom in 2009
Vegas has never been about who they think is better or what the score is. It's always been about what they think the public believes. If not, their line would never move. It'd be set, and that would be that. Vegas wants 50% of all bettors on one side, and 50% on the other.
I will point out, that occasionally Vegas does pick a side. A lot of my betting techniques revolve around following where Vegas puts their money. If they think that the public is too big on one team, they may adjust the line, in hopes of making a lot of money. This type of thing is pretty rare though. I believe the UF-OK game was a case of this (I don't remember 100% however)
Well, heading into last season things looked grim, we were +/- 5 wins heading into the season, 11-6 and we are considered worth two more wins or so over last season. To me, common sense says a healthy Chad Pennington will help out tremendously, as will Ronnie B moving into a contract year. And our depth is much much better compared to last season's "roster churning EXTRAVAGANZA!!!" Ireland flat out burned up the waiver wires and street FA wires to find contributors like Erik Walden and Lou Polite, both of whom came in with no knowlege of our systems yet produced, with 1 full cycle, draft to draft, FA period to FA period, we will only be deeper. Our FO is one of the most competent in the NFL now, if Lou Polite can go from Street FA to 4th and 1 first down machine, how much better prepared are we heading into this preseason?
Let the rest of the doubters continue their ignorance.. All this talk about regression MEANS ZERO to me. I know that the Patriots and the other quality opponents on our schedule with strong organizations don't read in to this type of hype. They know we will be coming strong this year and we need to maintain full focus if we seek to repeat, or exceed our performance from last year.
Be honest with ya BR, Pennington's health and Ginn moving forward is not one concerns me about this season, it is 35,35,32. Those are the ages of Fergie, JT and JP, three players that we are counting on for a good defense, the backups, Soliai, Wake, Anderson are all unproven, those three go down and those youngsters step up, that is the future of our season right there. Truck stinking up the place was a part of the reason why we sucked in 07.
I think Ferguson is not as vital to our D as we think. This league doesn't have many teams that like to use a power running game right now. I also think part of the JT signing was as insurance for JP. Between the two of them, I think one can stay healthy.
Please don't force me to recall those gaping holes in 07. Every game felt like the Jacksonville - Miami 62-7 fiasco under JJ.. Shudddddder
