Can Dolphins win big with Chad Pennington?

running games get shut down in the playoffs.

 

There's an exception to every rule and Pennington is no Montana. If I'm playing poker I can win the pot with a 2, 7 offsuit but the smart money will fold that hand and play suited cards, face cards or connectors

 

So do passing games.

 

generally speaking, when it comes to the Post Season, Opponents Defenses tend to try and shut down an Offense's best strengths... If that be either passing or rushing, that is what they try to accomplish...

and of course it all goes the same for your Offense, to attack a Defense's weakness..

You have to have a coaching staff which will adjust the Offenses gameplan on the fly if the opponents is shutting one down, they will try to open one up...

This will work only if you have the talent around the Offensive team to make it happen... but...

it is all predicated on that talent level... after if your Offense is still bogged downed... your next savior is suppose to be your Defense...which is then set to help the Offense...

I thought this was football 101...

 

A QB isn't the only player out on the field, it takes a team to win a SB.

With that said, you want your QB to give you the best chance to win a game. You need someone who can take full advantage of his teammates and their skills, someone who will make defenses respect his arm, and someone who can be counted on at points throughout a game to make big plays with his arm. I just don't think that describes Chad Pennington, he's the type of QB that needs a very strong supporting cast to mask his limitations and I don't think we have that type of offense at this point.

 

If miami's interior line provides good push and Ginn does actually improve as much as people are saying he is. I think Miami does have that type of offense.

They would have a really good power running game, a fast reciever who can catch and run routes, a very good blocking, route running and catching tight end, a runningback that is awesome at catching and is explosive, a potentially amazing clutch smaller reciever in Bess.

If Hartline, Turner or Cam comes back stronger then Miami can have a pretty good offense. With a tough defense, one that could go to the superbowl.

Of course things have to work out. Just like every team in this league. There is no team in this league that doesn't have questions or is not in a position where the right injury puts a huge question mark on their season.

 

Having a strong arm is the most over rated QB criteria. In your example its like the difference between 2, 7 offsuit and 2, 7 suited.

 

Says who?

 

passing games win championships nowadays along with defenses. the game has changed

 

i'm pretty sure that was me who said that unless someone stole my avatar and sig

 

A stron arm by itself yes. Jeff George proved that but Henne has alot more than just a strong arm. A weak arm doesnt win anything anymore. Name me the last weak armed QB to hoist a Super Bowl trophy

 

Probably Brad Johnson. Hasselbeck was close and many feel Seattle only lost b/c of the refs. And a weak arm just won the AFC east. I don't see any justification for your belief that "a weak arm doesn't win anything anymore".

 

Gotta go with Rafie on this one AdamP, I know you love Qb's but cannon arms come and go all the time in the NFL, Steve Bartkowski famously through a pass through the opposing uprights (106 yds in the air) and the Falcons never had back to back winning seasons.

Warner does not exactly have a cannon, S Young, J Montana, both were more Greg Maddux then Nolan Ryan's, D McNabb will never be confused with J Russel.

Etc etc.

It's hard to win in the NFL, weak arm, strong arm, whatever, just win baby.

 

HASSELBECK SHOULD HAVE WON. I'M one of those that bellieve the refs stole that SB. I think he has a better arm than Penny though. Johnson is a weird choice since that defense was insane and Gruden knew the Oakland checks. I think they had four or five picks in the game with a couple going for TDs.

Why I say it is to get through the playoff run nowadays it just seems like playoff defenses can take away the run and short pass and force offenses to beat them deep. You can always find the exception but the title of this thread is whether Penny can win the big one. If you surround him with 21 pro bowl players maybe.

Bottom line the recent emphasis on the pass makes penny an unlikely candidate to pull it off plus if you've seen his playoff games the guy hasnt done anything. Has he ever made it to the championship game even?

 

I never said that all you need is a cannon arm. There are many more important traits. Its probably fourth or fifth of the most important traits but what I am saying is you cant win the Super Bowl without one (excluding the rare exception that happens once ina long while) If the game changes aqain to allow a short passing game to thrive then I will change my view but right now if you cant stretch the field the odds are you wont run the gauntlet to bring home the trophy

 

I asked who says the running game gets shut down in the playoffs. That isn't true.

 

It doesn't make sense to get into a debate about whose arm is stronger. The point is that marginal difference in arm strength has little effect on winning or even completing longer passes.

Here are some stats using KC Joyner's metrics. I don't have a link b/c they are from the ESPN Fantasy football magazine.

He uses 3 stats to rate a QBs efficiency at different distances.

YPA - self explanatory.
Success Percentage (scs%) - typical completion percentage but adds in penalty yardage.
SCS% + YPA (SYPA) - product of SCS% and YPA.

All depths - CP was ranked 4th ahead of guys like Drew Brees and Kurt Warner. (BTW do you remember Brees' main knock coming out of college? weak arm).

(0 - 10 yards) - CP was ranked 4th.

(11 - 20 yards) - CP was ranked 17th above guys like Jay Cutler and SB winner Big Ben.

(21 - 30 yards) - CP was ranked 17th above guys like Manning and Romo.

(31 plus) - CP was ranked 1st overall.

(11 plus) - CP was ranked 11th overall and BTW he was ranked 10th in yards for this category among all the QBs listed.

The bottom line is that CP has a strong enough arm to attack all the areas of the field at least as well as many stronger armed QBs. What he needs is an interior line that can give him time to do so. That allows the team to remain balanced. IMO our weak interior OL was the reason our offense struggled in the playoffs, not CP's weak arm.

The key to winning playoff football on the offensive side is to be able to be balanced enough

 

well stats are stats. If you're going to use stats, Penny's career playoff rating is under 80 and he's never made it to a conference championship. whats his record 2 and 5 or something?

Yeah I agree the interior OL hurt his chances but his picks hurt just as much. QBs have to make plays in the playoffs not just take whats given to them. My memory is foggy of that game but did he even make one play out of nothing in that game or did he just take what was given to him?

I also disagree he can make every throw. His deep balls are ducks (49ers game for example)

At the end of the day, this is his last year here and he'll be replaced by a QB who has the arm, toughness and a few intangibles that are needed to win. Hopefully he has the smarts and consistent accuracy to bring home the trophy

 

It depends adamp, our Offense is moving in Contra to what most of the NFL is doing, we are not attempting to go 4 or 5 wide, we are focusing on running the ball, "if" we ever make it to a SB, the team we will face more then likely will have a solid pass defense and a mediocre running defense.

That is how the Redskins stomped us in 1983, a team can win and win big moving in contra, however any trailblazing team will need the personnel to implement the changes.

 

who says? (they do get shut down in the playoffs.) Teams average less then 4 yds a carry in the playoffs. You can make a case that amount of carries has something to do with winning it all but thats basically playing field position and playing safe and leaving it up to the defense. The real difference maker statistically is YPA. Even if you only throw 20 time in a game if you win ther YPA battle you usually win in the playoffs

 

YPA is waay overblown, a single big play can skew the stats even for a losing team.

BTW, no one has ever said this is Pennington's last season in Miami, Henne thinks it is and is arrogant enough to say so publically, but Ireland has always been adamant that a decision on Pennington will come after this season.

I'd like to have him for 2 more years, especially if he stays healthy.

 

we're on the right path to a SB. Our defense and offense are both on track. I think by next year we will have a legitimate shot at a SB. This year we are a long shot IMO. The wildcat is a wildcard to be sure. Hopefully Pat White can add the passing dimension to it that the coaching staff felt they needed.

Next year or maybe even this year (I stiill predict Henne will play this year) we'll have the QB to cause defenses to play us honest and not stack the box. Our run game will improve, our pass game and Ginn in particular will improve

 

arrogant or confident? lol.

that single play is what wins championships often times

 

Pat White is a total wildcard for this season, he may set the NFL afire, he may simply be a better WC then Ronnie B, I suspect they will have plays designed around what he can do, not what "We" want to see him do.

IMO, a SB prediction is premature, I think we will win 10 or 11 games, and surprise the "experts" however I'm not sure if we have the right people in key spots or how well JT JP and Roth will play at OLB.

If JP comes close to last season, and JT returns to form and Roth improves, we could see a really special defense this season.

IMO, if Pennington is injured, Henne will surprise everyone with how well he plays Qb, but the offense itself may suffer, we have spread it around type of talent, not a feed Ginn the ball type of scheme.

 

The QB rating is only useful if you choose to ignore the team around him and his opponents. He's been in 6 playoff games. He's won 2 of the 6. He played excellent in two of them, was fair in one and was bad in three. In none of those games was his team clearly superior. In fact, I believe his team was the underdog in every single one of those playoff games. It goes back to the fact that teams win games not just QBs.

In the Raven's game, CP completed many of his passes with Ravens hanging all over him when the blitz got through immediately. So yes, he made several plays out of nothing in that game.

And we'll see if it really is his last year here. I don't see that as a certainty.

 

Typically a Championship game comes down to a domination or a nail biter, we don't have the players to be dominant (though our Defense could be), in the 4th qtr and down by 2 pts, I'd take Pennington over Henne.

Henne has not show anyone anything.

 

CP had a higher YPA than Flacco in the Raven's game. He was middle of the pack among playoff QBs (based on post season stats). And he finished the regular season tied for 6th in the league YPA.

 

i'm certainly not advocating that QB is the ONLY position that matters but its one component. I believve that Penny will have all the pieces in place this year (barring injuries) to have no excuses. I like Turner and I think the oline will be strong. How quickly the defense incorporates the new blood will go along way to determining how we do this year. Knowing Parcells track record I believe we will be better than last year defensively by mid season at the latest. if thats the case then it will come down to the QB position. Lets hope for the best

 

I would be willing to take one step back this year to take two or three steps forward next year and have henne start this year. his potential is better than what penny brings to the table. either way I'm fine with waiting another year. We have a good shot at the playoffs with penny or henne IMO, so it should be a fun year to be a dolphins fan

 

Well four picks will kinda wreck any advantage you may get in YPA. Who were the top four QBs in playoff YPA?

 

The player who gives the team the best opportunity to win games is the one who plays.

I'll admit to wishing to see Henne play for us, hopefully he can win me over to liking him, but Pennington is in my view our best Qb since Marino tore his Achilles, not in numbers per se, just as a leader who can get things done for us.

Fascinating factoid AdamP, we had not finished in the Top 10 in offenses in the NFL since 1995, 13 years and ol' noodle arm got it done for us and we have better weapons this season.

 

i agree that penny is the best qb we've had since marino. IMO he's the first legitimate starter we've had since marino. i also think henne will be better which is why i think he has a shot to start this year. its all up to the speed of his growth and grasp of the offense. penny can get us to the playoffs. of that there is no doubt. this thread is about winning it all. to me henne has the potential to be that type of QB while Penny would need a baltimore ravens type team ( SB year not last)around him IMO

 

Maybe, the best seasons Penny ever had were with Curtis Martin toting the ball, once he left, Pennington was left with mediocre weapons at best.

So in my view, his true, career best ceiling has not be reached in years, last season was probably in his top 3, but not his best season, he still has that one in him.

The thing with Henne is, he is out of order for the windows of our best players except for Ted Ginn and maybe Ronnie, his two or three year learning curve will see our Defense rebuilt and starting from scratch more or less.

 

I disagree about Henne. I think he could start this year and in all likelihood will at some point (either by taking the job or through injury to Penny) He has the right character makeup to be very good. Confidence bordering on cockiness, a fearless approach in the pocket, smarts (i'll assume since he started so many games for michigan and from what ive read about his development here)an arm that can make a defense play honest.

My concerns regarding him coming out college were pocket presence and accuracy. his pocket presence in the preseason games was far better than i expected, to the point where i no longer have that concern about him. consistent accuracy will make or break him and early returns were positive IMO.

bottom line the way i view the two is penny can get us to the playoffs, henne might, and i emphasize might since its too early to say for certain, get us a ring

 

the Pennington Renaissance continues

 

No if we cant go downfield we cannt win big
Posted via Mobile Device

 

I agree that the defense, particularly the pass rush will be a big key. I just disagree that CP's arm strength is some insurmountable obstacle. All QBs have some areas they're not as strong in and the good ones, like CP, have other areas that compensate.

 

Exactly, he made (or was baited into) too many bad decisions that game. That was where he failed, not b/c he physically lacked the arm to get the passes there.

The top 4 were Warner, Big Ben, Peyton and Rivers. And I agree with you that it is a very telling stat. I just don't think people realize how high CP's YPA was last season. For somebody who allegedly lacks the arm strength to get it down field, CP's YPA was one of the highest in the league (tied for 6th best).

 

I agree with some of your post Prez, i think the key phrase to everything that is negative about Penny, is can he "keep a defense honest" and what that really means.

For me, if the arm cannot keep a defense honest, the running game cannot reach its potential regardless of its parts, that edge the defense gets is too much for an offense to overcome..its like like battling two different enemies at once, the playing field is not level.

This is how i felt and expressed on this very board after the cardinal game..but then came the patriot game and this new way to stretch the field...horizontally instead of vertically...freakin brilliant and necessary. Ive said this before, but iam not sure if it makes any sense to anyone other then myself but, the wildcat has a residual affect on the proset..The unrythmic patterns of the hybrid, the two different schemes having interchangable parts, creating space and hesitation, gets in defenders heads, and as a result, kinda keeps them honest ya know. All that benefits the ultra cerebral Chad pennington.

 

I dont think its insurmountable, I just think its a hindrance and a longshot.