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Chad Pennington Limiting our Offense? Numbers say otherwise...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by MonstBlitz, May 21, 2009.

  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well...then how is the offense being limited if we are winning football games via the offense controlling the clock and not turning the ball over....

    This should be fun.

    Penny actually had a "career year" in a single category, passing yardage, he's done better in every other category.

    As for "Wr needing more seperation" then they should seperate more.
     
  2. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    you might as well say, "Pennington should have a stronger arm"
     
  3. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Chad Pennington is one of the most efficient Qb's around, there's no arguing that. He wins games ! But i think these numbers prove that he limits our game when it comes to the deep threat. He averages 5 yards a play b/c his passes are 5 yard passes. his long passes are a result of the Wr's making a play.
     
  4. Dolfan984

    Dolfan984 Underrated Free Agent

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    I think the yards per play includes rushes. I think it was more to show that Pennington doesn't limit our running game as much as some say. He averaged near 8 yards per attempt if I remember correctly.
     
  5. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    i thought it was passing yards.
     
  6. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Actually it's just the opposite. When an offense is inside the 20 yard line the defense hunkers down and plays tighter, and this is especially true the closer you get to the endzone, the CB's play extremely close man to man and press at the snap. A QB who is able to put some zip on the ball has the advantage, it's vital to be able to thread the needle in close spaces and do it as fast as possible. If a QB doesn't have confidence that he can make certain throws because of arm strength, that's a handicap. If a Qb has a weak arm and the defense is playing even tigher than usual, that's a handicap which could end up in the ball going the opposite way.

    Now that's not to say that Pennington can't be successful inside the redzone, his numbers are actually pretty respectable inside the 20, but a QB with zip on his passes has the advantage in tight quarters.
     
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  7. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Heres where I have some issues with Chad Pennington as a starting QB. Again...I love what he has done for us...no doubt. Please dont construe my thoughts as to I want "Chad kicked out the door".

    We are extremely close to being a perenial playoff team. Right back to where we had been before Wanny took over. Once you get in the playoffs, you start seeing the best defenses in the NFL, and quite possibly, you start playing extremely close games....

    Chad Pennington limits us as an offense in particular when we are behind, and when there is limited time left. I dont need stats to back this up, because I feel this is pretty much common sense when it comes to understanding QB play. Chad lacks the ability to hit a 12-15 yard out when a reciever makeshis turn and the ball is drilled to him just across the first down line....this stat alone speaks to his limitations...

    We had a 37% conversion rate on 3rd down...23rd in the league. Which teams had the best? Indy, NO, Denver...50,48,47% respectively. Was this only Chad's fault? No, it wasnt. But to remain a perenial playoff team, you better be better than 23rd in the league in 3rd down conversions. Iver tried to find the stat...but if I remember correctly, it was quite awhile into the season when we converted a 3rd and 7 or longer....argue all you want, but having a QB with an arm greatly improves your chances of succeeding on 3rd and Long. Your linemen dont need to hold their blocks as long...and your recievers dont need to get as much seperation...

    In our one playoff game, we converted 20% of our 3rd down situations.

    When Chad can play to his strengths, I.E. ball control, play action, etc. he is almost unbeatable. But in the playoffs, you cant rely on always being allowed to play to your strengths, sometimes opposing defenses force you to play from behind, or shut down your run.

    Theres a feeling that Chad Henne can play with the same instincts, limits his mistakes, improve his decision making and truly open up the entire field as being exploitable.

    Again, to truly understand both sides of this argument, you have to keep in mind we have a QB on our team right now who many believe will actually be an upgrade to Chad Pennington at some point. Nobody is saying, trade for another QB, or draft someone besides Chad. We dont need to make a huge investment, when we could quite possible have what we want in Henne. To some degree, I think the success we had last year, coupled with the many years of frustrating mediocrity or just plain futility, causes some to be very conservative. Whoa, Chad has been very solid for us...lets not jeapordize what we have. This is not the makeup of a Champaionship team, this is the makeup of a scared team. A championship team has to take risks, to be great. That means taking off the security blanket to see if Henne can take us to the next level.
     
  8. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    You're right and I agree with most of it, and the numbers suggest that Chad is at his worst on 3rd downs, in the 4th quarter and in the last 2 minutes of the half. His completion percentage goes down and his interceptions go up, not exactly what you want in a QB in those situations. Again that's not saying that he's a bad QB, but some folks are getting carried away with the idea that he's a 4th quarter comeback kid because of his ability to manage a game and pass efficiently.

    I will disagree though when you say that this is a scared team. I don't believe that, I think that this is a gutsy team that plays within itself, they just don't take chances that they know they can't make. That isn't scared as much as it is wise football.
     
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  9. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    Actually I guess what I was saying was that I believe while Pennington may not have a rocket arm, he has an arm that is strong enough to put that necessary zip on his passes.
    I then looked for something to support or dispel.
    Here's what I found:
    From OPP's 19-1 yd line-
    Pennington TD/INT - 13/2; CMP % 57.7; QB RT 90.5
    Cutler 17/4 46.4 74.1
    Manning P 20/1 68.1 111.5
    Manning E 17/2 52.2 90.4
    Warner 31/3 67.9 105.1
    So I guess I would conclude that what you say has merit, however those who are holding up Cutler as a comparison would be better served not to.
    And in spite of all, as you also said Pennington does find a way to get it done just not as efficiently as some of the stronger armed (and smarter) QBs.
    http://www.nfl.com/players/chadpennington/situationalstats?id=PEN375096
    http://www.nfl.com/players/jaycutler/situationalstats?id=CUT288111
    http://www.nfl.com/players/peytonmanning/situationalstats?id=MAN515097
    http://www.nfl.com/players/elimanning/situationalstats?id=MAN473170
    http://www.nfl.com/players/kurtwarner/situationalstats?id=WAR492511
     
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  10. Disnardo

    Disnardo Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    NO, IMO, we won 11 games because were the best in limiting TOs...Miami had a total of 13 (7 INT, 6 Fumbles)

    How many did Denver have???? how bout more than twice what we had...

    the number is 30 (18 INTs, 12 Fumbles)...

    You don't help your team win when Offensively you keep giving the ball away...
     
  11. Tiki

    Tiki New Member

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    His limiting fact is in PRECEPTION

    I think what people think about Chad's ability, or lack there of in the long passing game, is what is driving this entire issue.

    Yes, the long ball isn't his strongest throw, that is true. But he can throw them, we have seen it. And I am not talking YAC. He doesn't have the strongest arm and what no doubt contributed to his lack of long ball potential was perhaps the weather in NY. Less the rocket armed QB in bad weather, they won't try it long often and probably wont' connect on many as well.

    As for last year here, the long ball wasn't a big part of our offense as we were building a new unit with many young players. It was more important that we were a highly efficient offense then a bombs away style like we enjoyed during the Marino Era. I suspect that this year, we still be a close to the vest, power run, high % passing game offense, we will be seeing us stretch the field more often.
     
  12. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    :lol:

    THe numbers don't really prove anything as to Pennington's individual effect on the offense. THe guy has a weak arm. That's pretty much been the book on him his entire career. Why do we have to make excuses? Accept him for what he is. Let's just all hope that we made a good choice in Henne and that he can be that COMPLETE player at QB we've been lacking for a decade.
     
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  13. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Wow, Kurt Warner's numbers are absolutely amazing inside the 20 :scared:
     
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  14. Tiki

    Tiki New Member

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    While I complete see your point and comparison, the numbers alone don't tell the entire tale. There could be, probably are, numerous reasons WHY we were attempting so many long passes.

    1-Primarily it wasn't a part of the basic scheme of our offense LAST YEAR!
    2-We had a QB who joined the team right before training camp
    3-We had a suspect line with a rookie LT that had to learn to pass protect, going deeper means they have to hold those blocks longer
    4-We were geared to be a run first ball control offense, don't know the number, but I bet our TOP was pretty good last season.
    5-We had a WR corp made up of a 2nd year player, in his second offense, an unproven player in Greg and an undrafted rookie, Bess.
    6-Was more important to be efficient then to be flashy.
    7-Was important to build confidence and a winning attitude, not only on offense but overall
    8-We were installing an entirely new scheme with a rookie HC.

    I have a feeling that when we can and do open the offense more, Penny will go deep. Yes he doesn't have the strongest arm, but something that could have also hampered him is playing in NY weather, he doesn't have that here. Will be interesting to see what we/he does this season.
     
  15. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Oh....no...I wasnt saying this was a scared team at all....what I meant was simply staying comfortable with Chad P, and NOT looking to upgrade with Henne would be scared, but this isnt what they seem to be doing at all. This is a team and organization that is looking to be GREAT, not just settling to get to the playoffs, but to WIN IT ALL.
     
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  16. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    And again...why does everyone keep talking about Chad Pennington's arm strength and his ability to throw the deep ball. Arm strength is so much more than the deep ball...and its not the ability to throw far, its the ability to throw at the correct trajectory, without getting to much air under it.....AND TO HIT THE 12-15 yard out patterns at the sideline...Chad Pennington cannot make that throw with any conviction, and you wont see us attempt them very often. I could care less about the deep bomb...I want a laser hitting a Ginn in stride just as he hits a crease 12 yards away....that aint Chad Pennington. Henne makes that throw in his sleep, and THATS when Ginn can really get YAC.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I can't believe that this is STILL being debated. Sure, our offense did pretty well...but, just not as well as it could have, if we had a QB out there that could properly utilize Ginn. People complain about Ginn's production, and yet refuse to see how Pennington affects Ginn's production. Pennington's shortcomings directly affect Ginn's production, in a negative manner, and thus, keeps our offense from being what it could be.
     
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  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The Qb position is more important then the Wr position, having a Qb with a laser arm may make Ginn look better, but what does that matter if we lose games due to inexperience at the Qb position?

    The world and the Dolphins Offense does not revolve around Ted Ginn.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude, this WHOLE THREAD is premised on the idea that Pennington does NOT limit our offense. However, he limits Ginn, who is a part of the offense. Since Ginn is limited, then our offense, by default, is also limited. It's got nothing to do with the Dolphins offense revolving around Ginn. Also, I'd disagree that the QB is more important than the WR. A great WR can make an average QB look good, and a good QB can make an average WR look good.

    EDIT: I'm NOT saying that we should get rid of Pennington. I'm just saying that he does limit the offense in certain ways. I've been very happy, though, overall, with Pennington under center.
     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Not neccessarily Resnor, Ginn has to adjust his game to Pennington's game, granted that is a bit like using a Ferrari to move out of an apartment, but in the long run it will help Ginn's development.
     
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  21. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    Kurt Warner is a very good QB. he doesn't get the respect his skills deserve. He's led a couple of teams to the super bowl for a reason.
     
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  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    By your own analogy, he IS being hindered. I already have said that Pennington is helping Ginn develop better route running skills. However, if Pennington doesn't possess the arm to properly utilize Ginn's attributes, and he doesn't, then he is hampering Ginn's game. If Ginn has to adapt to Pennington, and run shorter routes in order to get balls thrown his way, then Pennington is indeed holding our offense back, as instead of having a QB that throw the ball long to Ginn, he has to throw it short, and hope to have Ginn break tackles and get yards after catch.

    You can pretty it up however you want, but the fact is, Ginn can't be properly used, as a deep threat, with Pennington as the QB. This is not to say that Pennington isn't good, and that Pennington hasn't greatly helped our team. He has. He just can't do as much for our team as a QB with a strong arm could do.
     
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  23. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    I think some of you are arguing the wrong thing, by saying penny limits our offense, it is the same as saying a small person is limited in basketball as he can not dunk as easily, etc. It is not the same as saying said basketball player is a hinderance to our offense. Obviously penny is a good qb. But obviously he is not very good downfield.He just does not have it physically.
     
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  24. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    First and foremost...Im not posting this to say that Chad Henne will be as good as Dan Marino. But, these two minutes highlight exactly what a strong arm can do for you in the offense...remember when Marino was QB and it was 3rd and Long...did you ever feel like...man..there's no chance we convert this. Now...remember last season when we had third and long...it was almost like...crud, we might as well punt now. An arm opens up the passing game in soooo many ways....you cant coach an arm. But, an arm alone doesnt mean squat, you have to make the correct decisions. Jim Drukenmiller had a cannon, but a 5 cent head. Chad Henne is nowhere close to being as inept as Drukenmiller....he's got a great QB head, the confidence and the arm. In my opinion....theres no reason Chad Henne cannot make plays like this...Chad Pennington will NEVER be able to..because of physical limitations.....


    Oh..and notice...very few of these throws would be considered a deep bomb....even the first TD has a flatter trajectory with distance that allows the reciever to never break stride.....imagine Ginn never having to break stride...

    And at 1:39 secs of that......that play is never..NEVER possible without an arm....

    Edit: Im also adding a throw Chad Henne made his junior year I believe....you absolutley cannot make this throw..or teach this throw. Its not a bomb...but it shows EXACTLY what a QB with an arm can do...watch how the ball hits the reciever high in his hands...on a thread...and hits him in stride. If you arc this throw, and dont get any zip, you get your WR killed

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFiXscd4Ad4"]YouTube - CH to AA connection.[/ame]

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S0pz8qHpFY"]YouTube - Dan Marino[/ame]
     
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  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, a small person IS limited in basketball. It's much harder for a small person to make it to the NBA than for a big, strong, tall guy. That's just the way it is. Similarly, while Pennington is a great QB for us, you simply CANNOT ignore the fact, or explain it away, that Pennington's arm strength hampers the deep threat for our team. Teams aren't terribly afraid of getting beat deep by our offense, which is one of the reasons why our running game suffered so much last year. Why do you think that having Pat White in the Wildcat is such a great thing, potentially? It's because his arm strength will force teams to NOT crowd the box because they will have to worry about the deep ball. When Penny is in the game, no one is worried about the deep ball.
     
  26. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    It's all relative. By saying he "limits" our offense, yes he does, to a certain extent. But I think we could say just about every QB in the league "limits" their team in a certain way.

    Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are not the most mobile QB's, and they certainly are not going to win any foot races against LB's to gain many first downs. Therefore, they are limiting their offenses in this way.

    Pennington may not have the deep ball, but he does other things extremely well. Many of which make him a better QB than those who can throw the deep pass.
     
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  27. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    Well there in lies my point, I can be limiting in so far as its a good or bad thing, or I can be limiting in so far as its just not possible. I think people are seeing limiting and automatically assuming its a bad thing. I don't necessarily think it is a hinderance that penny limits the offense in that there is a deep threat as you stated he can make up for it in different ways.......
     
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  28. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I remember reading some stats from this past season comparing some QBs to Pennington. I think it was Favre and someone else and surprisingly, Pennington had the most pass completions of 20+ yards. ;)
     
  29. dolphindebby

    dolphindebby Season Ticket Holder Luxury Box

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    May I ask why we would ever compare any other qb to Marino?
    There's never been, nor will there ever be another like him. He was unique in his style, talent and attitude. He wasn't afraid of any one on the field. (probably off the field as well) Plus, he had the ego needed to be on the top.

    Call me a Marino homer, I am admittedly, but it just doesn't seem fair to compare his talent to others. IMO, he is in a class by himself.:yes:
     
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  30. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Just to re iterate...I wasnt comparing Henne at all to Marino...I just wanted to show what type of throws someone with an arm could make. I also wanted to highlight that a strong arm does not mean they can throw a deep bomb well. I also added Henne's highlight to the mix...
     
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  31. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Yup, and that video of Henne is a good example of a throw that we don't have in our offensive arsenal. :knucks:
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But, not having that throw doesn't hold our offense back.../sarcasm
     
  33. Dolfan984

    Dolfan984 Underrated Free Agent

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    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePTQaqrEdiw"]YouTube - miami dolphins -Chad Pennington[/ame]


    accuracy accuracy accuracy accuracy accuracy accuracy accuracy 2:50 in this video damnit
     
  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think it is pertinent to point out that P Cobbs, Greg C, DMart, Tony Fasano, all set career highs, as did Ted Ginn, and Ronnie Brown made his first pro bowl with Pennington as the Qb.

    The only starter who did not set a career high was Ricky Williams and he was a part time starter and had a 1,800 yd season on his resume.

    That would seem to undecut the argument that Pennington is some sort of limited roadblock for our offense, if anything he was a catalyst for across the board improvements.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Seriously? Ginn had his best year? Big deal...his first year was under Cameron, with complete trash at QB. If he hadn't had a better year last year than the year before, there would be something dramatically wrong. Camarillo and Fasono had career years? Great. They should have, in an offense that was tailored to the routes they are good at running.

    Pointing out that some players who didn't play much for other teams set career highs isn't really saying anything.

    Bottom line, the Dolphins have almost zero vertical passing attack with Pennington in there. If you don't think that is limiting the offense, I don't know what to tell you. No one is saying that Pennington didn't do really well, and that the Dolphins didn't do really well. All anyone is saying is that once we have a QB in the game that can stretch the field, this offense is going to be sick. I don't think that anyone would call our current offense "sick."
     
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  36. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    I'd rather have Pennington with his limited arm than some rocket armed noodle brain who can throw it all the way downfield only to have it intercepted or doesn't have the sense to avoid a sack.

    EVERY PLAYER HAS STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS. Pennington has limited arm strength. And he's still good enough to be a franchise caliber QB. Good coaches get the most out of their player's strengths. And with our strong RB's, our young and talented OL Pennington is the perfect guy to command our offense.

    Now next year after our new WR's have gotten some experience we might be ready for a more wide open passing game. We're not there yet. So Pennington is exactly what we need now.
     
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  37. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Again....

    Quit it with the Id rather have Pennington than some "rocket armed noodle brain" arguments. Chad Henne is NOT one of those at all....nobody is saying to replace Pennington with a Jim Druckenmiller/Jeff George clone...for gods sake...at least make an argument that makes some sense!!!!
     
  38. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    So....your saying Chad Henne is not an accurate QB?

    Do you have one shred of evidence to even make this argument?
     
  39. cnc66

    cnc66 wiley veteran, bad spelur Luxury Box

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    A lot of folks should agree with your post, I think it's pretty good. :hi5: I'm sure the coach won't start anyone like that so no worries there.

    If play action can actually "mean" something, Penny might get the separation he needs to have/see before he will chuck it longer with confidence and success. He had the most fun of his career last year. He's been working on strength and fundamentals. His body is as healed as it's ever been and we have made a genuine effort to place him, and us in a position to succeed. His fastest receiver is coming into the traditional breakout year. His best running back is operating with a recovered knee, and promise his best year to date. The line "should" be improved in the middle, with Jake coming up on a traditional big jump year for lineman. Carey will be year two back on the right side. We have a new line coach. Ricky will still be a force.

    Barring injuries to him, or any big component of the unit, things everyone needs to accomplish personal best ever, I predict he will. His best season so far is coming up and once again, we will be glad we have him.
     
  40. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    I think a bit of perspective is in order.

    The players that you mention as having career years.....were never really that good to begin with, statistically speaking.

    Cobbs
    Last year: 88 yards rushing, 19 catches 275 yards
    Previous high: 47 yards rushing, 2 catches for 20 yards

    Cammy
    Last Year: 55 catches for 613 yards
    Previous high: 8 catches for 160 yards

    Fasano
    Last year: 34 catches for 454 yards
    Previous High: 14 catches for 143 yards

    Martin
    Last year: 31 catches for 450 yards
    Previous high: 34 catches for 303 yards

    I'm all for people using stats to back up their argument, but when stats (or the argument itself) is misleading, it doesn't do anything to help the discussion.

    The career year argument is misleading because none of those players ever really accomplished anything do to the roles that they played. Most, if not all of them, were backups who found themselves either in a starting role for the first time in their careers or they had an increased role. The way your argument comes across makes it seem as though they had a productive past in which to best, and that just isn't the case. :wink2:
     
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