A look at Dolphins playoff hopes

Bottom line, that's why every remaining game this season is a playoff game.

 

Root for Bolts

 

I would say the opposite because I can't picture Baltimore falling out of it and I still assume they will end up winning the division

But if they lose they might find themselves at 7-6 in a week so maybe

 

Here is a simple picture of the Dolphins playoff hopes….

Hopeless to even win a game without him.

 

It's true that this is mostly a toss up, but we have to consider the schedules for each team.

The Ravens, if they lose, would be 7-5 with games against the Steelers, Eagles, and Texans still left on their schedule. All teams that could beat them. I think if Baltimore loses, they won't win the division, and finish with 9 wins or less. (They also still play the Browns who beat them once already).

If the Chargers lose, they'd be 7-4 with the only big test left being against the Chiefs. I think the Chargers have a great shot at winning 12 games, if they beat Baltimore, otherwise they may win 11. (I'm counting a loss against KC which is no sure thing)

 

5 wins.

2 Broncos losses.

1 Colts loss.

Dolphins clinch playoffs.

 

The Colts have a very easy schedule the last three games. Denver's remaining schedule is much tougher. I think we need to root for Denver to beat the Colts and lose to the Chargers and Chiefs. Looks like we need to win out for any chance of sneaking in. I didn’t hear no bell Tommy!!!

 

Will find out how good the Broncos really are those last two weeks

 

OK, I'm prefacing this with " I don't believe this is going to happen", ok?

I just ran the PFN playoff simulator and according to that, even with another loss to San Francisco we still make the playoffs as the 7th seed, facing Kansas City.

 

Some other team would have to have an epic collapse like the Broncos, Chargers or Texans.

 

Like I said, this is THEIR prediction simulator, but here's how it's breaking down.

Miami wins out with the exception of the loss to the 49ers.

Denver wins against the Colts, loses to the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs
The Chargers lose to the Chiefs, wins against the Buccaneers, wins against Denver, New England and loses to the Raiders
The Texans lose to us, the Chiefs, the Ravens and the Titans.

Like I said, it's THEIR simulator, not necessarily what I would call. I can't see the Chargers losing to the Raiders but then again, we all know how divisional games are. I don't see the Texans losing to the Titans but again, divisional game.

 

So you're telling me there's a chance. Yeaaa!

 

Obviously we want the Bucs and Giants to win, but the really important one (other than the Dolphins) is that Denver lose. They play the Colts, Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs to end the season. Them losing 3 out of 4 and us winning out is the simplest way to make the playoffs. Otherwise, we'd have to hope Denver, Chargers and/or Ravens lose 2 out of 4 (all very possible) and we get in through tiebreakers.

 

Can't see Denver losing to the Bengals either. Bengals defense is horrific.

 

If Dolphins win out, are they in the playoffs?

 

Not necessarily. The other 8-5 teams (Chargers, Broncos, Ravens) can all lose 1 game and still beat us.

 

Thought people were saying Herbert was terrible? Now it matters if he is hurt?

 

Nope I agree with that. However, some one here said Herbert was a terrible QB, so if true it would not matter if he was hurt or not. I personally do not feel as if he is terrible, so yes an injury could be important.

 

Who said he was terrible? Can you quote anyone saying that or are you just making this up? What people have said is he's good but not great, at least thus far, and that we didn't necessarily make a mistake taking Tua over Herbert.

Anyway, please quote someone here claiming Herbert is terrible because I think you're just making that up.

 

He is most definitely making it up. There are a few posts two or three years ago stating that Herbert played terrible in a game or two.

 

If he said people said he had big arm, put up a lot of empty stats, and had a terrible W-L record he would be correct, but nobody said the dude is terrible. It was also said that coaching was holding back his potential and he needed to get away from the Chargers (although Harbaugh might finally change that part of the narrative).
I think I might've said he had a big arm but didn't seem to have the head for the mental aspect of the game. That also doesn't equate to terrible.

 

He’s 100% making that up. Lol

Herbert’s problem is that he’s not progressing. He’s basically the same player as he was as a rookie.

Some will blame the team (which they won’t do for Tua even though they’re supposedly Dolphins fans).
Herbert has one of the best defenses in the league…the #1 defense in yards, 11th in rushing allowed, and 8th in passing.

 

Maybe not the best comment to make after losing to Houston, but there's still a realistic shot at the playoffs lol. Miami wins out, Denver loses out (they play at Bengals and vs. Chiefs so it's realistic) and Indy loses at least one game playing against the Titans, Giants and Jaguars (they'll be favored in all 3 but you never know). We get in even if the Bengals win out (only other 6-8 team).

That doesn't take into account every possibility (tiebreakers could change if some other teams like the Ravens collapse), but that's the most realistic path. At least according to ESPN's playoff simulator:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

Does Indy need to lose a game if Denver loses out?

 

According to that simulator it seems like it. Try specifying Miami, Denver, Cinci and Indy so they're all 9-8. Indy gets in. But if Indy loses one we make it.

 

There’s a way we get in even if Indy, Cinci, Denver, and Chargers are 9-8.

 

Yeah good you found that. Requires Houston and Pittsburgh to lose out, which isn't completely unrealistic, but requires Tennessee to beat Houston.

 

No, Houston can win one more.

 

Also, Texans play Chiefs tomorrow and Ravens on Wednesday. I bet they lose both.

 

Key thing is that the sample of do-or-die games for McD and Tua isn't yet realistically over this season.

 

lol… yep. We will see how they do.

 

As much as the Dolphins playoff chances are still TECHNICALLY alive, realistically any hopes for the playoffs realistically died with the loss to Houston last week.

Sadly, I’ve resigned myself to the post season being over for Miami.

 

Actually, the Texans won their division so they can win out. What they do from here on out doesn’t affect the Dolphins’ playoff chances.

 

Yeah, I also noticed that in your scenario where we get in even if Indy goes 9-8 it's actually necessary for the Chargers to lose out in addition to Pittsburgh losing out, and they play the Patriots and Raiders. So that's basically not happening.

By far the most realistic scenario is Denver losing out, Indy losing one and Miami winning out. That's what we'll have to root for.