Who knows.. as I said before though, some things have been mod edited and I can't find what was said even though I know it's been said lol. So the search feature is really helpful, but not as helpful as it could be.
A Qb leading the league in scoring =/= being on a team that is 2nd in scoring. Also wining a playoff game on the road is something most of the qbs in your example have accomplished at least once. I don’t think Tua can ever accomplish it. These are just my opinions and I have no suggestions on who to replace him with.
You just ignored my argument. You don't get flexibility for free even if I agree with you it would have been nice to have that flexibility. And because you don't get it for free it's possible the contract that was signed turns out to be the better one IF Tua comes back and plays consistently at a high level.
I still agree with what I said there. Purdy is definitely propped up by the great system around him. However, I like him a lot more than Tua because he's actually capable of beating good playoff teams. He also runs an offense that's not fully dependent on quick passes and timing. He takes his time on throws.
What QB's are leading the league in scoring? Typically, year in and year out, it's FG kickers who do that. The QB's that I've listed also played in more than 1 postseason game.
Your tone on Purdy changed recently. For example: https://thephins.com/threads/roster-moves-releases-and-free-agent-signings.98846/page-3#post-3627006 or https://thephins.com/threads/week-2-home-against-buffalo.99068/page-11#post-3652852 You're starting to act like Purdy belongs in the elite. I don't disagree. But nothing really changed except consistency. If Tua, or for that matter any QB, starts consistently putting up elite stats he IS elite. The probability it's just the surrounding cast is way too low for it to not be in large part the QB. What Tua needs is consistency, nothing else.
This is straight delusional. I didn't ignore your argument. It just doesn't make sense. It's not "free" whatever that means. However, the most recent season holds most weight. The comparison is a contract coming off a career season and thinking concussions are behind you TO a contract coming off another concussion knowing concussions AREN'T behind you, and missing a significant amount of time screwing the team. And even if he does do well on return, I would want the flexibility of just tagging. I'm sure as hell the Dolphins would want to as well. Again, you just can't admit it.
I should have specified TDs from scrimmage or passing TDs. Your second point kind of speaks for itself.
"When I say I'm right, I'm right." "When I say something, deny I said it, and it's proven I said it, I'm still right." "When I'm proven wrong, I'm right." It sure is hard to debate with people like this. lol
Yeah I don't think you've been in high stakes negotiations before. This isn't "Madden". You try to add flexibility what happens is the other side will propose something else, going back and forth. It's a game of chess. It's delusional to think you can just structure the contract in some ideal way. Doesn't work like that.
OK? But this is just a deflection and non-sequitur. The difference being Purdy was always elite in the league, and Tua needed the cast and system to be elite, and he couldn't be elite against quality teams. The MOST important thing you keep ignoring is Purdy's performance against great playoff teams, and in the playoffs. This changes the equation a lot for me.
You just can't do it, can you? Just cannot admit you were wrong. That this contract is TERRIBLE, a potential franchise sinker, and the Dolphins and every other GM in the sport would have preferred the flexibility of the option in hindsight.
I'm fine with saying Purdy belongs in an elite class of QBs, assuming of course he keeps this up. And yes he's done well against playoff teams which Tua has not. All that's fine. Just saying you used to put Purdy and Tua in the same category of needing the cast and system to be elite, but not anymore. And the reason for the change in position is consistency, i.e., you've seen Purdy play well over and over. Same thing will apply to Tua. What if Tua plays well in the playoffs someday? Then he "also" was an elite QB from the outset. "Elite" is performance-based, not evaluation based.
I already said I'd personally want flexibility too. I said that before the contract was signed. But I also recognize that it's possible the actual contract that was signed will turn out to be better than if they gave up something (e.g., more money?) for the added flexibility. Flexibility is not free.
The reason is because reviewing the numbers and seeing the performance in the playoffs, his numbers against playoff teams is exceptional. Not just in the playoffs, but the whole season AGAINST playoff teams. Tua DOESN'T have this over his whole career, and Buffalo was again, a continuation of that. This is why I contend and continue to contend Tua's "elite" numbers are hollow.
So a QB needs to have the most rushing or passing TD's in any given season to be considered great? How many seasons do they need to do that in for them to be considered great? Speaks for itself? If a TEAM doesn't make the playoffs, how is a QB supposed to get into the playoffs? You stipulated that Tua needs to win in the postseason while on the road. Those are damn high expectations since we can see that even the all time greats rarely have success on the road in the postseason. And coming to a conclusion on playoff success after 1 game is just wild.
So you're agreeing with me that it's performance based and that if Tua's performance improves against playoff teams then (retrospectively) he was actually an elite QB in the making. All I'm saying is you can't just assume it's all McD, Hill etc. with Tua. Let it play out and see what Tua does over the long haul (if he comes back).
But you aren't understanding here. The Dolphins are not getting the flexibility not for "free." They are getting the flexibility because Tua is just coming off another concussion in the season. They are getting the flexibility because he's missing so many games. Those previously weren't there in the previous negotiation.
Again.. that's not how negotiations work. People try to get the best of you in so many sneaky ways. If Grier had said that because of X,Y,Z it's "reasonable" that there should be flexibility in the contract, the other side would have countered with other demands. That's just the way it is. It isn't free in practice.
Bro. There's already a very large sample of Tua being complete booty against these good teams. I agree completely that IF Tua comes back, and plays well against playoff teams in the regular season, I would have a much brighter outlook on his future and his ability to beat good in the playoffs, even if he sucks in the playoff game.
Of course it's not "free." But it's a bullet, nay, an entire clip the Dolphins would have in the negotiation they didn't have.
Thank you. That's all I was asking you to admit. I've also consistently said the one thing Tua needs to prove is that he can play well when it counts most (back to that discussion we had), and in my case it's more key games in the playoff race and in the playoffs than playoff teams per se, but it's the same idea. The key thing for me is that we assess Tua based solely on his performance, not based on some evaluation independent of actual performance.
This “against playoff teams” really means nothing unless we compare Tua to other QB’s playing against these same teams. The “elite” guys have pretty much the same numbers again these teams/defenses that Tua has. It’s like if Tua has a 130 PR against team X, but they lose, Tua sucks and if Allen has a 90 PR against the same defense, but the Bills win, Allen is great. There has to be some context involved. Tua losing against the future SB champs, in KC, in that weather (who also beat the Ravens and Bills in their respective stadiums) isn’t this huge negative that Tua haters try to make it seem. Not to mention the people playing for the Dolphins that came directly off of the couch.
Also, a caveat to my previous post is I would feel better about his ability to perform in the playoffs but I do not feel comfortable about his health moving forward as the QB. That's all I've been doing. Assessing Tua on performance. Where we disagree is you use overall figures and I drill into them more due to the lived experiences of watching.
I agree there should be context. I don't have my program set up to easily filter passing stats for QB when playing against (future) playoff teams or I'd do it (alternatively conditioned on passer rating against) — these are in separate databases and it's just time consuming to match everything — but it would be interesting to see league-wide comparison of absolute rating and change in rating when playing against better teams for all QBs. The KC thing is just very small sample size. He didn't play well but it doesn't necessarily mean much.
Well.. it seems like you're doing that now. But a lot of disagreements we had in the past dealt with things like arm strength independent of actual performance. You didn't go as far as hitman did, but you kept making an issue out of that even when Tua's deep ball numbers were good. In the end it's the numbers that count.
Well it's relevant though in addressing WHY I believe Tua's performance against these teams is so poor. The scheme is attempting to mask Tua's deficiencies. His lack of arm strength. His need to not take hits. His need to be on platform. Like in that Buffalo game, he tried to throw a ball away off-platform, and because it was off-platform it lacked the distance and threw a pick 6.
The argument back then was even though his deep ball performance was good his arm strength was concerning. It wasn't that his deep ball performance was bad and arm strength might explain it. So if you're letting performance be the determinant, that's a major change from the past, and one I welcome because that's the view I take.
Backup and read the thread my guy. I never set any benchmarks for greatness or proclaimed anything, I gave an opinion, you asked what more I’d like to see from Tua. I then answered that. Tua has been in the league for multiple seasons and has only one playoff appearance. He’s just along for the ride.
No. It's been mentioned over and over again how arm strength is not just about completing deep balls, it's about throwing to the opposite hashes with zip, throwing with lower trajectories, not always having to plant and wind up, etc, etc, etc.....
It was specifically about deep balls too, and for a very long time. Search function will turn up lots of examples of that especially from hitman but also from StaleTacos. For example: https://thephins.com/threads/dolphins-acquire-tyreek-hill.97219/page-5#post-3460344
Here's me last year @cbrad "What could possibly be so confusing for you? You said: "the anti-Tua crowd has harped on arm strength so much as a fatal flaw that you'd now need to admit that 20+ air yard throws are infrequent or that Tua succeeded at them last season." Matt Ryan in 2021, was 2nd in this category of effective deep passer. Unless you don't think there were lots of concern about Matt Ryan's arm strength in 2021, then having concern with Tua's arm strength in 2022 is still very valid. Being good at deep passing doesn't require arm strength. Matt Ryan proved that in 2021 according to YOUR stat." https://thephins.com/threads/tua-2nd-most-effective-deep-passer-in-2022.98348/page-3#post-3555451 and again: "Over and over again you keep ignoring the fact 20+ air yard throws have NOTHING to do with arm strength. Throwing 20+ air yards is something EVERY weak armed QB can do. That's why someone like Matt Ryan, who arguably has the worst arm in the NFL, was also ranked 2nd in 2021. You don't need arm strength to make these throws. You need arm strength to throw to the sidelines on a curl route. You need arm strength to throw seeds. You need arm strength when you don't have your feet under you and have to throw off-balance. THAT is arm strength." https://thephins.com/threads/tua-2nd-most-effective-deep-passer-in-2022.98348/page-2#post-3555433
Yeah I think in your case that seems to be correct. You were simply dismissing deep ball performance as a meaningful stat, which I would disagree with. https://thephins.com/threads/tua-2nd-most-effective-deep-passer-in-2022.98348/#post-3555211
And if you see the posts above in that same thread (https://thephins.com/threads/if-tua-retires.99078/page-5#post-3653755), you get a better picture of what I was saying. Because the point of many in that thread was because of that stat, it means the critique of Tua's arm strength is invalid.
They both have said it many times. You are being selective in your searches. lol. You're not accepting the fact that it's not just about throwing the deep ball.
Yeah it's primarily hitman8. The deep ball stats actually are relevant for addressing his critique because he's linking arm strength with hitting WRs in stride on deeper throws, and of course the ability to do that will affect the stats: https://thephins.com/threads/4-0-with-him-0-3-without.97835/#post-3497068 Of course we've seen Tua hit WRs in stride on deeper throws.
Although I think Tuas arm is good enough all that don’t matter if he can’t stay on the field. That he gets concussed after a play like that (I know some disagree) scares the **** out of me. Last season gave me hope he put that behind but this looks like it’s going into the Eric Lindros direction like someone already mentioned here. I really hope he comes back and lights it up but I think his body is just not made for it, especially if he keeps making dumb decisions and keeps on trying to be something he is not.
