Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

The funny thing about Kobe is that despite the supposedly legendary work ethic, he really didn't improve at all from the time he was 22-yrs old. He had a few seasons with higher scoring due to more shooting, but pretty much every aspect of his game remained the same from age 22 to age 35. He's not the only great player for whom this is the case, but he's among the group that despite supposedly living in the gym apparently couldn't even manage to make himself an average 3 pt shooter. His career .329 from 3 is below average and even his best seasons from 3 were only barely average. There are 16 yr olds that are better 3 pt shooters than Kobe ever was despite all the supposedly obsessive work in the gym. As I said, Kobe is not alone in this regard -- MJ, LeBron, Wade and others too -- but it's strange.

 

Certainly people are different, but all of the talk about mentality is subjective and based on people's interpretation of body language, which is often just a confirmation of their preconceived beliefs.

Also, it's not clear that "fire" is better than "cool" when it comes to big-game performance.

 

Uh, there's a reason why Iverson was heavily criticized for his "Practice? We talkin bout PRACTICE"

You cannot perform at your highest if you're not putting in the work in practice.

 

What's not subjective is bad play in crucial games. Also, it's not as subjective as you might think when essentially every great team sport athlete seems to demonstrate that win-at-all-costs mentality, i.e., something visible under pressure. And yes I agree "fire" and "cool" are both seen (more fire than cool) but Tua demonstrated neither in some key games.

 

LMFAO

Jordan is GOAT 1a, Kobe is GOAT 1b. Some guys aren't gonna be able to shoot 3s like Curry.

 

I just gave you actual examples proving you wrong. Read about Ronaldo. Your intuition is wrong here.

 

Maybe you should reread what I wrote.

You cannot play to your FULL POTENTIAL if you aren't pushing yourself in practice.

I didn't say there are no greats who slacked.

 

Ronaldo (the Brazilian one, not Cristiano) played to as high a potential as anyone ever could. Again, an actual example proving you wrong.

btw.. another example, though not from team sports: Usain Bolt hated training and said he ate over 1000 Chicken McNuggets over the 10 days he spent in the Beijing Olympics where he broke the world record.

 

Part of it is McDaniel, not Tua. His style is much more laissez-faire than (extreme example) Belichick. As you said, bottom line is will this inhibit us from winning a championship? Who knows. I agree perception is bad, but the bottom line is what matters.

Regarding Tua getting overweight, I think that was a deliberate overcorrection for his frailty 2 seasons ago. I'm not as concerned about that as you are because I think they wanted to prioritize durability even if it adversely affected play. Once durability is demonstrated, then you reduce the weight to a more optimal level, which we're seeing now.

 

I guess what I'm saying is I'm not sure any of the guys Tua was listening to knew how much weight he should put on to ensure durability. So did he really go over what was suggested? Not sure. Anyway, I think after he proved last year he can play a full season people are more comfortable with him being slimmer.

 

Yeah, Tua did play poorly in some big games. Not as poorly as some of the big games by guys like Montana, PManning, Brady, Kobe, MJ ,etc. but poorly nonetheless.

Montana had playoff games with ratings of 34.2, 39.2, 42.0, and 60.0, all big, humiliating losses in which his team was either shut out, or close to it.

PManning had playoff losses with ratings of 31.2, 35.5, 39.6, and 62.3, all big, humiliating losses in which his team was either shut out or struggled badly to score at all.

Brady had playoff games with ratings of 49.1, 56.4, 57.5, 57.6, 59.4, 62.3, etc. His team badly struggled to score, but he was bailed out in several of them by a great defense.

Were those truly pathetic playoff performances by Brady, Montana and PManning (all worse than Tua's lone playoff performance or his performances against the Bills and Ravens at the end of the year) due to lack of fire or lack of cool? Or was it something else?

Same question about the following playoff shooting percentages by Kobe and MJ:

Kobe -- .143, .167, .200, .211, .222, .238, .250, .278, .280, .286, .286 and .294.

Jordan -- .167, .257, .267, .263, .300, .313, .318, .345, .357 and .360.

Lack of fire or lack of cool? Or something else?

Tua just turned 26 and has very limited opportunity to play in these big games. He had some great big-game performances in college and some that were not good.

 

Kobe is nowhere close to GOAT 1b. And it's not about shooting 3s like Curry or being the very best at it -- it is about not even being average. Not being as good as a lot of high school players. Not being as good as (relatively) "unskilled" players like Keith Askins, Haywood Highsmith or Rodney McGruder to name just a few current and former Heat players. With all of Kobe's gym time and work ethic he couldn't manage to get himself to be as good a 3 pt shooter as those guys? One would have to have a "basketball IQ" close to zero to not realize the benefits of being a good 3 pt shooter, so please don't tell me he didn't have reason to work on it.

 

Not a good comparison statistically speaking. First you need to adjust by era. That's especially important for Montana where you'd need to add 15-20 passer rating points for proper comparison. Second, you're picking individual games and not looking at overall averages. It's the overall average that matters, and Tua is terrible there. Third, even for individual games it's not the number of such bad games that matters, but the frequency. Tua is 0 for 1 in playing well in playoff games.

Just so it's clear when you adjust by era Montana is history's highest rated playoff QB given some minimum constraints like 150+ passing attempts and 6+ playoff games started. Tua has a long ways to go to even be in such a conversation.

As far as what caused the bad performances? No one knows, but we've seen so many great performances in the playoffs by those QBs and none so far by Tua. Big difference thus far, and it's totally reasonable to think that a player's mentality matters in determining how he plays. So for now, yes, the questions about Tua's perceived lack of win-at-all-costs mentality is a valid concern.

 

If you want to make those adjustments then go ahead. You seem to realize for Montana it would be about a 15 pt adjustment and his ratings in the 30s and 40s would still be pathetic with any adjustments. The adjustments for Manning and Brady would be pretty minimal and those were all legit bad games.

Yes, Tua is 0-1 in the playoffs with a bad game. Manning started his career 0-3 in the playoffs, all bad performances. He didn't win a playoff game until he was nearly 28 years old. Brady's team had early playoff success, but he was nothing special in those games. His ratings in his first 5 playoff games were 70.4, 84.3, 86.2, 73.3 and 76.1.

Yes, Tua has a long way to go. He's 26. Through age 31, Montana's career playoff passer rating was 80.3. He had some good playoff performances and some terrible ones.

The "none so far" part is hardly unexpected since he has only had one and just turned 26. As pointed out, Peyton Manning had none until he was almost 28. I know that you fully understand how silly it is to be basing any kind of conclusions on a sample size of one. It would be silly if that one game was played in a temperature-controlled dome, but it's even sillier considering the horrific weather conditions that game was played in.

 

Again, it's the averages that matter. And the larger the sample size the more likely it is you'll have extraordinarily bad games. Point is, the comparison you were making doesn't hold water from a pure statistical point of view. You need to make the proper adjustments first (not me since you're the one making the argument). And I don't mean just adjusting for era. I mean taking into account frequencies. For example, what is the probability of Montana performing 1 standard deviation worse than league average in a single playoff game? That's the kind of information you need to trot out individual game comparisons.

Yes that's why I said "for now".

No, unadjusted Montana's career playoff passer rating is 95.6, which is absolutely amazing in an era where average regular season passer rating was in the low 70's and playoff passer ratings tend to be 5-10 points lower. Adjusted to today it would be over 120. That's his average!

Correct. That's why I didn't originally make a statistical argument. You tried to. It's silly with only one game.

 

When one of the players being discussed has only played one playoff game, the "average" is meaningless. It's just one game. And the larger the sample size the more likely it is that you'll have good games that will bring the average up. It works both ways. You know that.

As for the adjustments, I am not inclined to put in the work. Those games by Montana were horrific by any standard and in any era.

8 of 15 for 98 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs for a 34.2 rating in a 3-49 loss is horrible, has always been horrible and always will be horrible.

9 of 23 for 125 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT for a 39.2 rating in a 13-30 loss is similarly pathetic and always has been.

12 of 26 for 109 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT in a loss is also terrible and always has been.

Are you really arguing those were actually good games that just look bad due to era?

That is career. I was posting his playoff rating through age 31. Yes, it's still unfair to be comparing Tua at 25 (when he last played) to Montana through age 31, but including good playoff performances by Montana in his mid to late 30s is even more unfair to Tua.

And for the same reasons it is silly to make a "Statistical" comparison it is similarly silly trying to drawing bigger, broader conclusions from one game. Especially one game played in some of the worst weather conditions in NFL history. A game in which several people in attendance had limbs amputated due to frostbite.

 

First, the best statistical estimator of a population average from any sample is the average of the sample. That works even for N = 1. So IF you go the (silly) statistical route, then the best estimate for Tua's career average playoff passer rating is his current average (with possible slight adjustment for age effects). So if you do go the statistical route it's 63.9 for Tua. Also, to be technical, for passer rating it's not the number of games that matter but attempts. Generally you want 150+ attempts which obviously Tua doesn't have.

As far as individual games, what you need is to calculate the probability of each QB performing X standard deviations worse (or better) than average. Then we can compare individual games. But just trotting out individual games without taking sample size into account (larger it is the more extreme results you have) and not looking at frequency doesn't cut it. Best to not make that argument in the first place.

I never drew a broader comparison. I said that "for now" it's concerning. You seem to have a problem with that qualifier.

 

You explicitly said "career", not playoff rating through age 31.

I never drew a broader comparison. I said that "for now" it's concerning. You seem to have a problem with that qualifier.[/QUOTE]

Of course, when the sample size is one the confidence interval and margin for error is huge. So huge that it makes your statistical estimate laughable and meaningless.

Yes, attempts are what matter and as you acknowledge, Tua doesn't have anything close to there 150 one might want for meaningful statistical conclusions.

We both know the sample sizes. They are readily available and the number of playoff games is not some huge number. Montana had a significant number of poor playoff games. Of his 23 playoff games, his passer rating was 42 or lower in 3 (13%) of them. That's a significant percentage.

Yes, it was my mistake for looking up his rating through age 31 and not then writing that. The 80.1 rating I referred to was through age 31. Still is.

My only qualification with your "for now" qualifier is that IMO is it about as close to completely meaningless as it could possibly be in light of the sample size of one.

 

I agree.. but it's still worth noting.

btw.. when sample size is 1 confidence interval isn't even defined (technically infinite).

 

I disagree. And plenty of NBA players, current and former, agree with me. I follow a couple accounts on insta that part all sorts of interviews with current and former players, regarding Kobe.

There isn't another player closer to Jordan than Kobe.

Jordan was never a great 3 point shooter, either. Shaq couldn't shoot a free throw and he worked his *** off on it.

 

A number of NBA players also think the earth is flat. There's really no legit argument that Kobe was better than LeBron. Titles is a team stat, not an individual one.

Yes, Jordan also wasn't a good 3 pt shooter. I said Kobe wasn't the only one. But it makes one wonder what those guys were doing all those years instead of getting better at 3 pt shooting.

As for Shaw, I'm not at all sure he really worked his *** off on FT shooting. He was never known for having a particularly great work ethic and there were allegations throughout his career that he really didn't work that hard at it. But it wasn't that surprising, he never had a good shooting stroke. Kobe's was fine, so there was no good reason for why he couldn't be better at it than he was. The 3 pt shooting was just one facet of his failure to improve -- he really didn't improve from the time he was 22 till the end of his career. Didn't become a more efficient shooter. Didn't become a more prolific passer/assist guy. Didn't become a better rebounder. Didn't reduce his turnovers. etc.

 

I don't care about basketball and don't follow it much, but they polled 133 NBA players who they think is GOAT and you see the result. It seems like it's either MJ or LeBron in the minds of players. Kobe is a clear 3rd. I think the real issue is who voted for Paul Pierce lol.

 

You are entitled to your opinion, but that’s just a bad one. From age 35-39 LeBron has averaged about 27.5 ppg, 8 apg, and 8 rpg and about .520 shooting. Other than the scoring average, which is still better than Kobe’s career average, those numbers are far better than Kobe’s very best seasons, including his prime. Kobe has one more title but about half as many Finals appearances. Kobe was never a particularly efficient player and was far inferior as a passer and rebounder. He’s just not close. That he was a rapist doesn’t play into the player comparison, but . . .

 

Lebron was not as talented, he's just a physical freak. Same with Shaq. Shaq wasn't more skilled than say Olajuwan or Nowitski. He was far more dominant, though. While LeBron perhaps was more dominant than Kobe, he also played in the MASSIVELY inferior East, and still couldn't get it done without an all-star team.

I do believe that this is definitely an example of stats not telling the true story.

 

If he was told to be stronger that entails gaining muscle, right? Which in turn adds weight. I think he did that for the better part of the season and then he gained a lot of unhealthy weight, i.e. fat. Now, was he being instructed on how/what to eat? Does he follow an “expert” for training and eating habits? I find it hard to believe that someone would have told him to get fat, but if someone was telling him what to do to stay healthy, and he followed that advice, how much is on Tua?

My opinion is that he was being guided by people that may not have known how his body works. So in that effect he was being misguided. Saying that, he’s old enough to know what’s right for his body and when he noticed fat gain he should have demanded better suggestions. Something tells me, however, that he loves to eat and didn’t mind one bit the extra calories. Lol

 

Well, I don't think it's right at all to absolve Tua, when he's the guy going to get a personal trainer.

It's his responsibility to know who he's hiring.

 

If you had read my entire reply there wouldn't have been a need for you to repeat what I wrote.

 

I agree that it doesn't seem like everything is kosher. There's been something amiss. In no world should a pro athlete be allowed, or guided, to get fat.

At this time I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and notch it up to him being lead astray. Again though, he's a man and should be able to recognize when something is wrong and demand a change. If we see a repeat of this next season then I'll definitely express more of a concern.

 

I know. I liked his post because I agreed. I just was pointing out a couple areas where I disagree. Ultimately, Tua himself is responsible for the people he takes advice or training from, for the people he has around him.