No no, not for sample sizes. For effectiveness. Like it's difficult for no name average MLB player to have the stars align for an insane year, like for say, Nick Foles. Know what I mean? Like you can't necessarily Moneyball the NFL cause there are so few games. Of course situational type stats are always going to be important and can have very meaningful effects on games. Like how many more teams are willing to go for it on 4th down, which is almost completely driven by stats.
Intuition is actually wrong there. Let's say you have a system that wins you 10 out of every 16 games (using 16 so we can multiply by 10 to get 160 games), i.e., 62.5% win%. If you have a 16 game season then the probability of winning 10 or more games is 60.9%. If however you have a 160 game season then the probability of winning 100 or more games is 53.5%. In other words, purely mathematically it's easier to show the effect of bias in win% due to anything (coaching, player ability, analytics, etc.) with fewer games in the season. If that's counter-intuitive, it's because there are fewer possible outcomes with fewer games so you "jump" more between outcomes. For example, 8 out of 16 is 50% while 9 out of 16 is 56.25%. But 81 out of 160 is 50.625% so barely above 50%. In other words, a bias in winning more games has a larger chance of falling in those slightly different outcomes with a larger number of games. It's just math. You can look up the binomial distribution to check the percentages. There are two reasons analytics is more challenging in the NFL: 1) it's harder to measure relevant stats for each individual player (note how few stats we have on what most players do, like a LB or a DT), and 2) there are far more interaction effects, which means that the number of possible ways in which the stats influence each other is far greater than in MLB. That NFL Next Gen Stats is a step in the right direction, but it's going to take a lot of time before analytics is as important in the NFL as in MLB.
My mind glazed over reading that. LOL like in Moneyball they weren't concerned with great play, just playing to the averages that they got that player for. Over 160 games you're more likely to play to your averages than in 17 games. If you don't play to your averages in 30 games in an MLB season that isn't as detrimental to the season as it would be if a player missed the averages you're depending on for 3 or 4 games, in a 17 game season (depending on importance of position, obviously). Or that's how I think of it
That intuition is correct. The Nick Foles part is correct. I was just arguing the use of Moneyball over fewer games.
I wasn’t mocking nor was I creating a straw man. You sure do love to play victim. I bet it really turns on your wife. Lmao Players are drafted on measurables (height, weight, speed, etc) intangibles (character, grit, etc) and …. Wait for it… waaaaaiiiitttttt for it. STATS… and some of those stats are the type that make you “sick and tired”. Look, no one was mocking you. And so far, the only person that can’t come up with a reasonable conversation is you. Partly because you’re so good at playing the victim, and partly because you don’t seem to even understand the topic. If this topic is hard for you to understand and makes you “sick and tired”, maybe just sit this one out.
I predicted how the rest of the season would go after game 4 against buffalo, and my "predictions" were spot on except for the first Jets game and the Dallas game. I didn't need any high level stats or special formula, just used common sense.
Get a load of this guy. Uses predictions in quotes like he's some kind of god. Says they were spot on, except for the two games he was most adamant about the Dolphins losing. What a character.
Haha, most adamant? That's the only argument you have? Yeah let's just ignore the fact I predicted 11 out of the last 13 games correctly. I was not most adamant about the jets and dallas game, I had no comments on the dallas game other than picking them to win, and I had no special comment on the jets game other than saying they could beat us because of their defense and playing at home, even though they had no offense. The only game we had a lot of discussion about was the Tennessee game, which people were questioning why I would pick them to win. I knew we would have trouble with them simply because they play physical hard nosed football and we have trouble with teams like that.
Yes, but your predictions were always for the favorite except the Tennessee and first Jets game — you got one of those right and one wrong — and then lost one favorite bet with Dallas, so it's not saying as much as you think. Over time the best predictors of NFL games are machine learning algorithms that get about 2/3 right. Almost no human can match that over time (I'm sure there are some exceptions). That should be the threshold to measure yourself against. More important is that most of your predictions regarding Tua turned out to be wrong, and stats performed a lot better. Given your focus on Tua for so much of the past few years, the failure to predict things accurately there counts a ton more. The only place where the anti-Tua crowd got Tua right thus far is in big games or pressure situations. But practically everything else predicted about what Tua wouldn't be able to do turned out to be wrong. So your ability to predict things in football overall is not that good.
BS… being consistently negative isn’t some great evaluation of the team. 31 teams each year don’t win the Super Bowl, if I spouted off how one team sucks because they’re not SB winners Id be right every year, also. Lol You’re wrong nearly all the time.
I’m assuming you’ve gotten out of that apartment and bought a house? What with all your winnings and all. Lmao
Whether I chose the favorite or not is irrelevant, favorites can change throughout the season and I made my predictions after game 4. Also, the favorites don't always win the game. I didn't even look at who was the favorite at that time I just went with what I thought of each team and game individully. Overall I was 11 out of 13. That’s a lot better than the 2/3 hit rate of machine algorythims. I'm not claiming to be some expert at prediction, I just knew how good the Dolphins and Tua actually were at that point vs the rest of the league, and used some common sense.
Whether it's a favorite or not definitely matters. It changes the probability of the outcome. Being able to predict which underdogs win for a fixed number of predictions is far more impressive than being able to predict which favorites win. Either way, yes I'll give you kudos for getting 11 out of 13 right, which is better than 2/3. But unless you can do that consistently, then stats are superior to your intuition. And evidence suggests stats are superior to people's intuition in predicting NFL games over longer periods of time. So you don't really have an argument against stats.
He actually believes that he’s accomplished something because he doesn’t have a clue what your posts even mean. Lol
You so full of it... When's the last time you made any predictions or got anything right anyway? Never. All you do is go around throwing baseless and ridiculous insults at people.
I know exactly what his posts mean, and I'm not arguing against statistical analysis which is what he seems to have taken issue with. I just said I didn't need stats to make my predictions because I knew exactly how good the Dolphins were and just used common sense. Just because I didn't need them to make said predictions doesn't mean stats don't have a place in making predictions. But of course none of this matters to you because your only gig is going around insulting people and defending the ****ty Dolphins FO.
BTW, my predictions regarding Tua were never stats based, I've always said he is good but not great and will not do well in the tough games and situations necessary to get us a super bowl. Him putting up some elite stats with a load of weaapons and against weak competition during the regular season is irrelevant if he ****s the bed agaisnt the tough teams and in tough situations when it really matters. I never made a prediction based on stats.
You’re not making predictions. You’re throwing crap against the wall and seeing what sticks. Then bragging about the load in your pants.
I know. My entire argument is that you should use stats in making predictions (perhaps with other sources of information) because with large sample size it's hard to beat. Even the tough teams argument has stats associated with it, it's just small sample size.
I saw my thread became active once again and I thought to myself, "Oh wow, maybe cooler heads have prevailed and we can talk about a pretty good team rolling into next season." My bad, LoL, that's clearly not the case here. Carry on!
So, when I question how you are using stats, and you respond back with a statement that they might as well not practice, which is clearly a demeaning response to my perspective, explain how that isn't mocking? You don't respect the perspective, and you're attempting to portray it as idiotic. But yeah, you aren't mocking or anything. I'm just being sensitive.
That’s not what you asked. You said that stats make you “sick and tired”. Then you wrote “just play the game!” In response to trying to use statistics in order to help win the game. Practicing, and player evaluation also helps win games. Not only are you overly sensitive, but you’re so much so that it makes it hard for you to read a post rationally and jump to conclusions that were never there.
No question. it’s been a great season, which I have thoroughly enjoyed, especially the blowout of the Broncos and, obviously, the divisional victories. That dreadful loss to the Titans, and all those injuries took their toll, and turned what could have been an incredible year into one that ended as something of an anticlimax.
I like our odds of winning it all next season. Early odds Here are the top-10 candidates to win Super Bowl LIX (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook). San Francisco 49ers (+550) Kansas City Chiefs (+650) Baltimore Ravens (+900) Buffalo Bills (+950) Detroit Lions (+1200) Cincinnati Bengals (+1200) Miami Dolphins (+1700) Philadelphia Eagles (+2000) Green Bay Packers (+2000) Dallas Cowboys (+2000)
No way this is even close. The Dolphins are about a +1,000,000. And I’ve got that from some good sources here. Las Vegas is so stupid! Lol
“It was so great that I am going to leave here and never come back!! I am out this b—-h! Peace out, mofo’ers!” (mic drop) Key!!!! Don’t go!
