This one… I think it’s concerning that Tua shrinks in big moments and hasn’t elevated his team when it mattered most. That and the injury concerns (he played one full season in his life). If he’d shown more of the Tua we saw against the Bills (in Buffalo) the season before last season, I wouldn’t be concerned, but he really didn’t against top competition last season.
Jumping through hoops and making up hypotheticals is not going to turn us into a real superbowl contender. Injuries are not a matter of luck, Grier has a tendancy to take chances on players with injury histories, and this is what you get when your GM signs or drafts a lot of injury prone players. Grier is a gambler, and most of the time he ends up loosing the bet. He ****ed up the rebuild and our window is closing. Get over it.
The Dolphins have the seventh best Super Bowl odds for 2025. This team isn't going anywhere. They will be in the mix next year.
Agreed, but the whole team should get another shot next season. If we blow and are not able to win a playoff game, then this should be the end of Grier with the Dolphins.
2020- Beat Buffalo, Pats, Bengals, and Rams- All playoff teams 2021- Beat Baltimore and Pats 2022- Beat Baltimore and Buffalo Again, he’s beaten plenty of good teams over his career. With McD, Tua has been a top 5 QB. Been to the playoffs in 2 straight seasons even though both seasons have been injury riddled.
With the salary cap, and QB’s not willing to take team friendly deals (like Brady), all teams have around a 4 yr window at best after their QB is off their rookie contract, unless you have a Mahomes or Brady. And those QB’s must be good. Maybe 5 if they get lucky. The Bills window has closed. Allen is due $45m next year and he’s proven that he can’t carry the team. Their cap is bloated and they really have no recourse except to get rid of some of their high priced guys and they have lots of older guys. Unless they get a new QB. Baltimore, 49ers, Eagles, Detroit, Jags, Chargers, and Dallas all have very small windows right now. The Dolphins have a good core group of guys, many options for their cap, and a QB who is good enough to win with and will be a low cap hit for the next 2-3 seasons.
Yep. Bad teams aren’t in the running for the number 1 seed late in the year. Bad QB’s aren’t in the running for MVP in back-to-back seasons and don’t lead the league, or come in near the top, in most QB stats for two years in a row. Bad teams don’t make the playoffs in consecutive years. Dolts will claim that injuries are an excuse, and to some extent they may be because all teams have some players get injured every season. However, very few teams suffer the amount of injuries this team has seen over the past two seasons and still make the playoffs. Injuries matter, the amount of injuries a team suffers matters. I asked a question, it went unanswered, but if injuries don’t matter why is there a mandatory injury report? Losing more than half of your defensive starters, and even some back-ups, matters. Players that can’t practice, even if they play in games, matters. Especially when they play in a timing based offense such as the Dolphins. Players slowed by injury, matters. At the end of the season, 18 of Miami’s 22 were on the injury report. Some of those 18 were 2nd and 3rd string players because the starters were on IR. We fielded our starting OL far less than any other team in the NFL. Yet the Dolphins still had the best offense in the league. Fangio made the defense better, but it was his first season and they never got into form until later in the season and then everyone got hurt.
He didn’t elevate the team around him in most of those games you posted there. Sadly it’s a fact that Tua struggles when the stakes are high (at least in the NFL) and it’s not only injury related (roster).
For real. It's not even he struggles when the stakes are high. This isn't a Tua crumbles at high pressure. Tua crumbles against good competition. FULL STOP. Cherry picking some wins, and ignoring the stats: https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https://i.redd.it/hcby4zj5v1dc1.jpeg Tua becomes 2023 Gardner Minshew against playoff level teams. He's the worst QB in the league against pressure.
That's just not true. It "matters most" from week 1 through week 18. And Tua has led, or been near the top, in all QB stats. He led the league in passer rating last season, yards passing this season, been top 5 in nearly all other QB metrics, and has been in the running for MVP 2 straight years. Tua is 34-19 in his career as a starter. If "matters most" to you is post season, he's only played in one playoff game. Lost to KC, in KC. Allen just lost to that same team, in Buffalo. In comparison, Allen lost his first playoff game and went 2-2 in his first 4. Over his career, Allen has played in 10 playoff games and the Bills are 5-5 in those games. Allen has had 4 really good playoff games against the Rivers' Colts, Mac Jones' Pats, Skylar's Dolphins, and Rudolph's Steelers. He's had one good game against Mahomes' Chiefs, but they lost. In the 4 other losses, he put up a 69, 80, 68, and 86 passer rating. I guess Allen doesn't play well "when it matters"? And if not, why is it different for him?
Would like to see stats from other QBs and how they are doing, nevertheless I had less concerns about Tua and this franchise before last season compared to now.
The guy who ran those stats said Purdy, Jackson, and Allen all have played better against playoff teams than non-playoff teams. Purdy was VERY consistent against everyone.
I don't know where you are getting that stat from but this is from Ryan Smith: "#Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa ends the season with a 93.6 overall grade when kept clean and a 52.3 overall grade when under pressure No matter where you fall on the upcoming months of debate, these splits have been very evident and consistent throughout his career"
Allen is pushed as elite, but he isn't. He can do ONE THING, though. He can beat the Dolphins. He always does. However bad you want to say he is, he always beats us.
"TuA dOeSn'T PlAy bIG wHeN iT MaTtErS" When leading, Tua’s completion percentage is 70.18%, 9 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 98.2 rating. While being sacked 9 times. When tied, 69.16%, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 114.0 rating, while being sacked 5 times. When trailing, 68.51%, 13 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 97.8 rating, while being sacked 15 times.
I didn’t bring up Allen, but I do think he’s better then Tua at least for now. If you don’t agree on my take that Tua struggles against top competition and late in the year, then I guess we have to agree to disagree (although the stats say something different). But according to you, we should be favorites to win the Super Bowl next year then, with all things being as rosy as they are, can’t wait!
Currently, the Dolphins have the 7th best odds to win the SB next year. I guess Vegas could be lying though and making stuff up about thinking this team is a top 10 contender. They LOVE to lose money. lol
Like I said, can’t wait! But with Tua, we should be higher then 7th, cause everybody else besides him and Mahomes sucks donkey balls at the QB position, at least that is what I learned here…
No they weren't. They had the 4th best defense in the league. They had 4 defensive guys go on IR. Jones Milano White Phillips Jones came back in Dec and played in their last 4-5 games. Phillips played in 15 games before being injured, but he wasn't a starter. Milano and White were the only 2 starters who didn't play the majority of the season.
What you should be learning is that TEAMS win games, not any one single player. The AFC has some good to great QB's though. Burrow (if he can stay healthy), Stroud (still too early to say though, but based on last season), Allen, Herbert, Watson, Lawrence, Tua (if he can stay healthy). Only one elite QB, Mahomes. I think Burrow has the best chance to make that jump to elite, but it's getting harder and harder to say that if he keeps getting injured and doesn't actually play up to his reputation. He's actually played less games than Tua and was the designated starter since day one. And Tua vs Burrow, stat wise, are nearly identical.
TEAMS win games, really?! No **** Sherlock! LOL Really surprised, that YOU, of all people have something good to say about other QBs not named Tua…
Well, when I post over here in the mains it's usually to reply to something incorrect about Tua or to counter the unwarranted praise of QB's like Allen. If there was actually any real QB talk, instead of just "Tua is Mac Jones", "Tua will never win a SB", "Tua is not good", etc, I'd address that. There's never really any substance or real evaluations from most here. I always read things like "eyeball test", "QB's win games", and "stats don't matter" over here. There's also no objectivity. There are guys that hated Tua even before he was drafted. They disappear when he plays well, and flaunt and mock when he plays poorly. That's called...well, you know what it's called. Anyhow, when someone wants to have a legit football discussion, I'm all for it. Otherwise, I guess I'll just play in the mud with the pigs.
He was looking really good till his coach destroyed his career by keeping him out there. but, I'm sure there would be a ton of rust
Tua just throws to the first read, you very seldom see him scanning anywhere else. If he wants to be elite he needs to scan the field.
I really don't understand how paying him 45-50 million is going to be cheaper then paying him 25 million. Easy math lets say you give him a 50 million a year contract for 5 years. Burrow cap hit is 29 million. You can push that bonus on down the line, but only get the team in more trouble if you decide to bail on Tua. Look at Burrow contract...
It’s true that Tua throws “short” the least amount in the league, but another member recently posted some data that shows it’s because the options just weren’t there enough. This past season it was either throw deep or behind the LOS. But, that doesn’t mean Tuanisnt reading the field, the data shows there’s just not many options and that’s a scheme or player problem. It looks more to be a player problem. Tyreek and Waddle were the highest deep options AND the highest short options. And they were rarely running short routes. That shows that his guys are either deep or short so it may seem as if he’s not looking for that second option, but in reality that second option isn’t there enough. By all accounts Tua has a high football IQ. McD called him a football savant. And the evidence just doesn’t show that he’s not reading the defense. OL is also an issue. You have to have time to throw into the second or third read and he just hasn’t had that amount of time.
How does he know they are not there if he is throwing at as soon as he touches the ball? You very seldom see him scanning the field like I've watched other QB's do in the playoffs. Now, it could be because he is scared to hold the ball any longer, either way it needs to be fixed.
But they lost players to injury largely because Grier loves to sign questionable guys. This is the problem with Grier teams. Usually an overpaid FA or two, a bunch of risky signings ofn guys with injury histories, and generally a QB that just isn't quite good enough to overcome all the deficiencies. Oh, and he seemingly couldn't care less about oline. As long as we have Grier around, I think we stay on this merry-go-round.
If Hill and Waddle were both his highest for deep and short, it sorta starts to sound like Tua is just throwing at those two guys. LOL. Who was tops on his intermediate targets?
All NFL QB's make more than one read. Really good ones can read the defense before the ball is snapped most of the time. Sometimes the QB is wrong, however. If a QB needs to make a second read very often it's either because they are poor at reading the defense pre-snap or the offense is poorly designed. Tua's issue is that when he is wrong on the pre-snap (all QB's are) or when the OL whiffs on a guy Tua thinks is getting blocked (with this p!ss poor OL it happened a lot) he's not good at extending the play because he's been told to "not get hurt". A better OL would stop all of the "Tua is a first read QB" nonsense. Here is a chart that shatters all of this talk about "1st read"
Because everyone else was often covered. Here's another chart showing that Tua doesn't just throw to "wide open" guys:
Just to be clear, not trying to dog Tua, there could be legitimate reasons why those two were most targeted. If intermediate was also those two, then I think it shows a real problem. Either the receivers other than those two are terrible, or the QB just isn't throwing elsewhere. I also understand, if dudes are never open, and you don't have tons of time to throw, you aren't gonna waste much time hoping one of them gets open. You're gonna their to the only two guys who consistently make plays.
He almost never does, and that's one of the biggest problems our offense has. I think that Goff hit Amon Ra and LaPorta wide open in the middle of the field more times just yesterday than the Dolphins entire team had the entire season.
