I was wrong about the Jets and here to eat some crow

There's honestly nothing to cry about though. He can make every throw. It's weird, and I forget the name of the reason, but some of his throws look slow/soft because he's left handed. If you ever get the chance to watch him play in a game where someone has reversed the video you'll see what I'm talking about. Our brains are so used to seeing the ball come out of the right hand that it tricks our brains.


Edit: Here's a good video:

 

Health was the ONLY legitimate concern other than demonstrating his high level play wasn't a one year fluke. Tua has passed with flying colors. It's too bad Purdy is playing so well Tua will likely end up #2 or possibly #3 in passer rating this year. I would have loved for him to be one of the rare ones to be #1 twice in a row.

 

Probably the only thing to like a out the upcoming schedule is the travel and wear and tear advantage.
Cowboys came east to Buffalo, got their **** run, fly home, then back to us. We played at howm and started pulling guys early.
Next week, Ravens fly out to SF for a monday nighter. Short week vs us.
That’s good.

 

On a slightly different note, Cowboys scoring only 10 points and us getting a shutout has made us the #1 offense by points again, and now the #14 defense by points allowed. This mid-level ranking by the defense is exactly as stats predicted at the beginning of the season: we'd start off real bad and end up mid-level by years end. Important to end strong though, as many SB runs belong to teams that ended the season strong.

 

5th time in 14 games he’s been benched, clearly not the guy…

 

They keep focusing on what he can’t do rather than what he can. What he can do not only vastly outweighs what he can’t, what he does best is conducive to being a great QB. Accuracy, timing, quick release, great footwork, pre-snap reads are all way more important to playing QB than being big, running fast and throwing the ball far.

 

The defense let up a lot of points the first half of the season. Ever since Ramsey came back it's been lights out (minus the Titans trap game). We're peaking at the right time.

 

I’ve gotta eat some crow too since I was worried about this one, and feared the beginning of another December Dive. I even made a moneyline bet on the Jets! I’m thrilled to be wrong and it was $28 well spent! I’ll bet on the Cowboys and see if I can’t jinx Miami into winning again!

 

I took the under 35.5, Tua under 208 yards, Tua under 1.5 TD's and Mostert over 63 yards. Was nearly wrong on every one so I think I'll keep betting against them for the rest of the season.

 

Hopefully I'm pointing out the obvious, but how you bet has no influence on the Dolphins record. I'd focus on just making money when betting and nothing else. Personally I wouldn't bet on any of the 3 remaining Dolphins games and look for other opportunities (just looking at it from a bettor's perspective and not a fan).

 

Was really amazing considering how many we had out on both sides of the ball.

 

I bet on the NFL and MMA. I NEVER bet on games that feature the Dolphins or any of the fighters that I root for. Emotion can cloud judgement. lol

(Edit: I shouldn't say never. I do bet on those with friends and it's more for bragging rights than money considering those bets are typically like $10 or less with no spreads, etc)

 

NFL, MMA and MLB for me. But I have this rule of never betting using Vegas odds. I wait until someone emotionally invested enough is willing to bet with crap odds. It was actually an experience in MMA that gave me that insight. Not sure if you remember Phil Davis? But about a decade ago there was this massive hype around both him and Jon Jones, and I had these huge arguments with a fellow grad student about who was most likely to be an all-time great. He swore on Phil Davis and I swore on Jon Jones. Since we both thought those fighters were likely to win most matchups we agreed on massive underdog bets (way beyond anything reasonable). As long as the fighters kept winning the underdog bet would lose a little each time. So both of us kept losing against the other fighter. But if the fighter lost you'd win big. lol.. the rest is history. That's when I realized it's better to find people willing to give you unreasonable odds than bet online.

 

You BOTH bet on MMA? That's pretty wild since anything can happen in the cage. I mean, who could have predicted McGreggor would break his leg a few years back? I would never bet on MMA since one punch, kick, etc can flip an entire fight. Feels way too random to wager on.

Of course, I read Brad's story and he's not betting...he's hustling, LOL.

 

For me, betting MMA is the biggest money maker. Sure, things happen, but overall if you know the fighters you have a great chance of coming out ahead. I did lose some money on this past Edwards vs Covington fight, but I still think Covington is the better fighter and I should have considered some ring (cage?) rust for Covington. Overall, for the night, I made some good cash.

 

You can get burned in MMA. St. Pierre losing to Serra, Anderson Silva losing twice to Weidman (including a broken leg), list goes on with some extremely unlikely outcomes. And those were ones I lost betting the wrong way btw (back before I stopped using Vegas odds). But MMA is great in that you get the most die-hard fans of certain fighters. Multiply this Tua vs. anti-Tua stuff by 10x. Offers great opportunities for .. lol hustling (still sounds bad to say that).

 

Aah, that makes sense- don't just bet the main card but several fights throughout the night. For that, you really have to know MMA.

 

I bet 1 k on the dolphins to win 10 games when vegas put it at 9 1/2

cheers today Dano.

 

Being left handed and optics has nothing to do with it. This is a ludicrous argument thought up out of thin air by the Tuanon crowd. Michael Vick was left handed and no one ever accused him of having a weak arm. Tua has average to below average NFL arm strength. And no, he cannot make every throw that other strong armed QBs can, especially not when he is scrambling or off platform.

 

What you’re saying makes perfect sense but my NFL bets are mostly emotional hedge bets against Miami. They are bets I hope to lose but if I win them it makes the loss a little more palatable. They aren’t wise bets from a strictly dollars and cents perspective for sure.

 

This post so lacks context and substance, it’s basically one of the most amateur statements I’ve heard thus far in the players progression.

We all know the players lacks a certain amount of arm strength. Tell us something we haven’t established years ago buddy

Jesus.

Maybe some of us should have a online clinic on evaluating the position, he needs to be the first one to sign up

 

Lmao… the amount of ignorance in this post is almost funny… but mostly sad.

It’s called cognitive estrangement. Our brains are used to seeing a right handed throw. When Tua throws, it fools us into making it look weird or “off”. In reality, there’s nothing wrong with Tua’s arm and he’s about average for an NFL QB. Not the strongest and not the weakest. While he doesn’t posses the top end strength of a Mahomes or Allen, what he does posses easily makes up for it. And that is elite anticipation and an above average ability at reading the defense. The only time that top end strength is really needed is for those who need to make up for a lack of those things.

 

No, no we don’t

 

lol

You my boy blu.

Thanks finatik for allowing us to have some fun with someone who just cant get over himself

 

Never flipped burgers in my life, never seen the inside of a trailier, and I probably make more money than you. This is how these boards devolve into personal insults, if you want to go that route we can go at it, but don't anyone dare say I started it.

Back on topic, again, please explain how Micheal Vick was left handed and no one ever complained about his arm strength if your "cognitive estrangement" theory is correct.

Tua is not the first left handed qb in the NFL, funny how this argument and theory never came up before. If you are saying he has an average NFL arm then we are in agreement, that is what I said, he has average to below average arm strength, depending on the type of throw and if he can set his feet or not.

But don't say that he can make every throw and it's all in our heads, that is not factually correct.

 

The statement I was arguing against is that Tua has no arm strength problems, can make every throw, and it's just a perception problem because he's left handed. That is not correct. If we are all agreeing that Tua does not have a strong arm and this has been established, then there is no argument.

 

Although I've said it before, it bears repeating but here's what is so amazing about the anti-Tua crowd to me: The whole "Tua has a weak arm" argument is a straw man proposition for several reasons. Primarily because a "strong arm" is a subjective concept. Second, he doesn't need a strong arm; just one that's strong enough. Third, his statistical performance in nearly every category related to arm strength is top 3 in the league.

Arguing about arm strength is like desert nomads fighting over which is the best long distance swimmer. If they're all capable of swimming across the oasis, it doesn't matter, does it?

 

Sure. You comment on my post with the snarky "Tuanon" crap, no amount of knowledge about what I wrote, and then cry when you get snark back. Typical cowardly post and whine. The insecurity with the money comment is too funny, but expected. But just so we're clear, I live in a $4.3m home, junior.

 

It's absurd. As if ANY NFL QB doesn't have a strong arm. And basing an eval on arm strength alone, or even having it in the top ten in regards to an eval and making it so important, for any QB in the NFL, is just ignorant. If a guy doesn't have an NFL arm they wouldn't be drafted. Tua can make all the throws. He's made all the throws over and over. I guess some take that comment to mean an 80 air yard throw or something stupid like that, but that's not in anyone's playbook so that's not a even throw worth considering.

 

Congrats on your home. Mine is not quite as expensive, but also 7 figures. Certainly not a trailer Park. Either way I see you still want to make it personal and are avoiding the main argument, which is what really got you ticked as you hate being proven wrong.

If the "cognitive estrangement" theory is correct, please explain how this has not been an issue with any other left handed QB before Tua, of which there have been several in the NFL. This theory is just wrong and was brought up by Tua supporters grasping at straws to try and explain away his lack of arm strength.

And no, arm strength is not the only or most important thing when evaluating a QB, I never said that, but don't try and convince people that Tua has no arm strength issues and its all in everyone's head. That's just not correct.

 

Tua does not have a strong arm in the catergory of Allen, Mahomes, Herbert farve, Rodgers,

What is your point man?

And why do you insult people who believe that his skillset is elite regardless if he doesn’t have a cannon arm ?

If you are humble enough I will go down this road with you again?

 

I did not insult the guy, I just said his "cognitive estrangement" argument and the statement that Tua can make every throw and has no arm strength issues is wrong.

Yes, Tua has other elite traits, but arm strength is not one of them, and no, it's not in our heads.

If we can agree on that then all good.

 

Tua is second in 40+ yard throws with 10 this season. If there are a bunch of guys with howitzers playing QB in the NFL, they're not using them very much.

 

Not everyone has a track team catching balls for them and an offensive wizard drawing up plays and a system designed to hide any arm strength issues.

Tua can make most of the throws needed of him in this system, but no, he cannot make every throw. He struggles when throwing off platform or at long distance with velocity.

 

hitman8, the problem is that you have a long history of harping on Tua's lack of arm strength to claim he's just a mediocre QB. You need to come out and explicitly say that arm strength is irrelevant in Tua's case because his production is elite.

Admit to that and it provides a very different context for your claim Tua's arm strength is average (which is true). It's hard to take what you're saying about arm strength in isolation given your history of posting.

Criticizing arm strength with Tua is like criticizing mobility with Peyton Manning. Who cares.

 

I've never claimed Tua is just a mediocre QB, I've always said he is above average and would not be a complete bust barring injury. And yes, he does have some elite traits and is putting up elite numbers right now, but I have my reservarions about whether he is actually elite or more a product of the great system and elite weapons he is working with now.

He does have elite traits like great accuracy, anticipation, quick release and vision, but he is lacking in arm strength, mobility, athleticism, size, and durabilty.

He also struggles with improvising and making plays on his own when his first couple of reads have been taken away.

It's been working great so far this season during the easy part of the schedule, but we haven’t seen him do it against the good teams and in the tough situations to win the big games.

What he is able to do the next three games and hopefully into the playoffs will be the real test of whether we have our Franchise QB or not.

 

Yes you did. You've been arguing he's no better than Mac Jones who is a below average QB. Here's even a quote where you explicitly used the word "mediocre" (other times it was insinuated):
https://thephins.com/threads/week-1-game-thread-dolphins-vs-patriots.97723/page-5#post-3479787

This is goalpost moving. The claim was originally we haven't seen him do it against good pass defenses. This is a postgame thread for a Jets game where Tua just proved he can play really well against a top 5 passing defense. The Jets (even including yesterday's debacle) are giving up a 79.5 rating to opposing QBs. Tua's rating was 119.4.

As to the rest of your post, sure we can wait for more data. But don't move goalposts. And if you include 2022 he sure did prove he can play well against good teams AND good defenses.