Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

I miss the old times

 

It is rather amazing how Allen and Mahomes find the open guy no those broken plays. Esp Kelce. If i were a defender on a broken play I would go find Kelce

 

He also had 32 yards rushing and a TD. How does his QBR jump if you add those in to pashing??

 

People who watched the game won't notice it though as Romo was too busy slurping on him all the way through. Pretty sure he even called one of his passes a dime as it sailed over the receivers head.

When you have the commentators fawning over your every action people hear that and don't really take in what they are watching. It's kinda like a boxing match when the commentators are so biased for one fighter that people will then believe they have won even although the other guy is clearly outworking him.

 

It doesn't, they are running plays. Why would they be added to a passing stat?

If you are happy for your QB to have 10 carries per game then good luck keeping him healthy.

 

Bro, they use "Total TDs" for them now because a 2 yard run where you are pushed from behind for 5 yards counts as a TD for you.

 

I don't. I hope in a few seasons, the years from 2002-2020 feel like a half-forgotten bad dream.

 

to see what or how he really affected the game. Kinda not fair to look at one thing and not the other. They could be added for the sake of argument if someone knew the formula.

 

In principle there's no difference between rushing for 5 yards and passing for 5 yards. It's still 5 yards. So one could calculate Yards/Attempt and TD/Attempt (two components of passer rating) using total yards and total TDs. Nothing in principle wrong with that, but keep in mind that this will likely lower "total passer rating" for most QBs that run a lot because passing Y/A tends to be higher than rushing Y/A. Maybe for a few QBs you'd see an overall increase due to a larger number of rushing TDs, but in general it's unlikely to help most QBs that run a lot.

 

Let's count all Josh Allen's fumbles as ints while we're at it. It's only fair.

 

If you include rushing attempts as a pass attempt then its going to skew the completion percentage.

 

I think you keep it as completions per pass attempt. Better not to include rushing attempts in completion percentage, otherwise like you said it doesn't really make sense.

The "proper" way to do this of course is to keep rushing attempts as separate and find the optimal weight on rushing yards per carry in a model that, together with the other components of passer rating, maximizes win%. Same with fumbles, sacks etc.

 

If you include his rushing yards and rushing TD his QB rating increases from 68.8 to 79.7, so like you originally said not a big impact.

If you include the rushing attempts as pass attempts and completions than it increases to 80.8. A bit higher but still not a good game.

But if we are going to include positive yardage for rushes we probably should also include the lost yardage from sacks which isn't included in either the passing or rushing yardage for a QB. I couldn't find the total number of yards lost but if we assume 5 yards per sack then is adjusted rating would be 79.7.

ESPN's QBR which I believe includes rushing yardage has Allen at 47.9 last night which is slightly below the average. So anyway you want to cut it, Allen's performance last night wasn't extraordinary.

 

3 sacks for 24 yards. Make sure to include each sack as a pass attempt. That's what they do for NY/A which has a higher correlation to win% than Y/A. NY/A actually is close to passer rating in predictive power.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202312100kan.htm

 

Are we going to do the same for Tua? and I think Allen has less fumbles this year then Tua. Yesterday Tua didn't look like the "greatest prospect" ever and got outplayed by a Rookie. Not all on him yesterday that O-line was not good. Really interested how he responds after yesterday and how he plays down the stretch. Tua and McDaniel have to do better then yesterday and in pressure moments, if we want to win it all.

 

Not a good start and tough road ahead. Time for Tua to step up and change the narrative.

 

I‘m not sure if he becomes better at that, he’s not the quickest and you don’t want him to get hit in the open field. When he does scramble it sometimes seems indecisive and he did slide better at the start of the season. The last stretch of the season will be a big test for this team and especially for McDaniel and Tua.

 

Dude, use his correct name when you refer to him from now on:
“The Art Form”.


…..still want to see him run more, huh?

 

Did you do that for Tua? it is only fair.

 

Did you add in his rushing TD or just the yard?

 

It wasn't my idea to count rushing TDs but if we're going to count them it's only fair to take fumbles into account too then.

 

Did Allen have a lost fumble that game? I'd be perfectly happy with the truth and not trying to slant an arguement.

If a QB is 10-20 with 1 TD his QBR is going to look like trash and it will look like he had a bad game, but what if he also ran for two TD's? Suddenly his game looks better.

 

Agreed, that’s why I wrote he looks often indecisive when he scrambles. If he learns to scramble when the opportunity is there and starts to slide again, that would be a big step for him. But I don’t want to see it to often, he is not build to take open field tackles.

Not sure about the weight, first time in his career that he maybe indeed plays every game and that is HUGE!

 

He's changed the narrative already. This December Tua's ratings are: 141.0, 90.5, 119.4. Tua is proving to be a very good December QB.

 

Almost picks.

Established 2020 as soon as Tua was drafted.

 

Some should have been picked. Some should have been caught. In my opinion, if you don't give credit for the drops by the offense, you shouldn't criticize for blocks by the defense. All that matters is what shows up in the stats.

 

I wonder at what point we can just say that he's a very good QB. There can't be very many spots left in the stadium that the goalposts can be moved to.

 

He already is. He's clearly a "franchise QB", as in there's no uncertainty he should be given a long term contract. He's shown elite production 2 years in a row, and he's demonstrated he can "carry the team" in many instances where his surrounding cast is depleted or other units aren't playing well — the two key traits you want in a QB.

The only unknown is how he plays in the playoffs. But assuming no massive collapse at the end of this season, he's in the top 3 among "current generation" QBs (drafted recently): Mahomes and Burrow being the other two. Only Mahomes is guaranteed "elite" because he has the requisite sample size (and SB wins too of course), but Tua and Burrow are on their way — pending future performances of course.

 

Both

 

As cbrad, wrote, I think that argument is over. It's possible that these past 2 seasons have been flukes, but I can't recall a QB that has gone 2 straight seasons with numbers like these that went on to be just an average QB. The sample size for Tua is fairly large now and shows that he's in that elite category. It's shown that he makes progress and gets better each season. Saying that, it's also rare for a QB to have elite numbers in every season for their entire career. Look at Mahomes this season. Hell, look at Allen and his 93 passer rating this season. Marino, Montana, Brady, Manning, etc...all had average to just above average seasons in their respective careers.

Elite QB's also play well in the playoffs, but even then concentrating on just that can be misleading because TEAMS make the playoffs, not QB's. Teams win Super Bowls, not just QB's. Mahomes is a perfect example of that this season and Marino is a good example for the past. There are other examples.

Winning the Super Bowl, it seems, is largely due to having a good QB. However, luck and circumstance are also huge factors. Tuck rule. Strength of schedule (99 Rams). Injuries. Fluke plays (Giants David Tyree helmet catch, Titans Miracle in Music City to get into the playoffs, Saints vs Viking blown coverage that allowed the Vikes to score in the final seconds and send them to the NFCCG...and on and on).

In short, Tua is a top QB in the NFL and there's really nothing left to argue against that.

 

No sir, I did not. Last week was crazy. I'm still adjusting my sensibilities after finding half of Fins Nation embraced the Dark Side after Monday night. Sadly, it seems that sarcasm and irony have been sacrificed at the altar of fanbase negativism for me.