Tua is not the Problem

This is the reason you pick up the fifth year unless you are pretty sure you are moving on.



All the Giants accomplished by not doing so was forcing themselves to franchise him because obviously you can't give the dude anywhere near that kind of money.

 

If you go pure Super Bowls. Brady clearly. Personally, I would still take Marino

 

But not Aikman.

btw.. Brady is pretty impressive even without the SBs. His longevity puts him 3rd all-time in wins above replacement (if you use passer rating to win% relations) behind only Brees and Peyton, and efficiency-wise he's top 7-8 (haven't updated from last year). Either way, he's a near consensus all-time great while Aikman is not.

 

Or just work out an extension that is less. My guess is that's where this is headed. The 45m is worst case scenario.

 

While I agree in theory, Steph Curry could be in the same tier as Jordan. Nowhere near the defender, nowhere near the all-around player, but certainly one of the best shooters ever that's right up there with Reggie Miller and Larry Bird. And maybe stats don't support that theory, but that's the thing with "top 10" lists...it's all subjective. Dwayne Wade would be in my top-10, not because he's the best all-time or anything, but he's my favorite player ever for how he dominated with the Heat and created a dynasty that's still alive today.

For Aikman, I'd say he's borderline tier 1/tier 2. We could probably name 30+ tier 1 generational quarterbacks though...so I don't know if he makes the top 20. Again, it's all subjective and since I've always hated Dallas sports teams, I wouldn't give Aikman any love. Romo either for that matter, even though he belongs in that conversation as well.

It might be a fun off-season exercise, to see if all of us could make a top-50 list where we agreed on the top-10. I would guess that even in the 3 or 4 months before pre-season starts, we wouldn't even get close. For instance, Brady would not be in my top-3...just can't do it, LOL. I'd try my best to leave him out of my top-5. Montana, Marino, Elway, Manning, Mahommes (at the end of his career)...not in the right mindset for this but I'm sure I'm missing some great ones.

 

Good we agree on Aikman. The Brady thing is just a bias. For those not biased against him (e.g., due to being a Dolphins fan) he's no question top 3. Most put him top 3 among all NFL players all-time. And regardless of subjectivity, almost no one puts Curry in the same class as Jordan and LeBron. So what I'm describing is I think the generally accepted viewpoint.

 

He definitely won't get 45 but my point they are still going to pay him more than the fifth year option and whatever doubts they had they probably should still have. They are absolutely worse off by not picking up the option.

 

Sure, obivously, but that's still not a good argument for picking up Tua's option. Was it a good idea to pickup Baker Mayfield's 5th year option? How about Sam Darnold?

 

If he is on the team in 2024 you will wish they picked it up and him being on the team is more likely than not.

Giants are now going to pay more money to their QB than they had to and its a position they didn't have to put themselves in.

 

Of course, but you gain flexibility. It's extra money vs flexibility, and considering Tua's history I don't see how you wouldn't want the flexibility.

Are the Browns happy about picking up Mayfield's 5th? How about Darnold? You think the Bears regret declining Mitch Trubisky's 5th?

 

Browns expected Baker to be their starter and paying 10 million to get rid of him is not ideal but not really devastating. Didn't prevent them from getting their next guy. Pretty good example of the risk not really being great.

With Darnold the mistake was Carolina trading for him. If you are going to trade for him you kind of have to pick up the option. Also didn't prevent them from exploring other options. Another example of the risk not being that great. They were in a position to draft a QB if there was one and were in a position to trade for Watson. Option or no option the Panthers would be in the same exact place as they are now.

Bears never entrained it because they had pretty much moved on. They put Trubisky into a competition with Foles. Dolphins can do the same thing and essentially move on but the point is they probably aren't going to move on.

They will do the most Dolphins thing to do and that is invite more media questions by not picking up the option only to end up giving him more money to be the QB in 2024. That is what will probably happen. They have awkwardly put themselves in win now mode and their won't be any QB worth trading for next year. If things flame out bad enough with Tua that isn't their QB in 2024 everyone is probably getting fired and someone new will probably blow it all up anyway.

 

It isn't about where you rank him today, cbrad. When he was playing, he was considered one of the top QBs in the game. He was elite.

But he wasn't driving that offense.

 

I wouldn't franchise him if I was the Giants. I'd set his value and if another team is willing to exceed it, I'd let him go.

 

Yeah for maybe 5-6 years or so. And stats show that. Early 90's z-scores for Aikman:

1991: 0.9430
1992: 1.2118
1993: 2.1711
1994: 0.6747
1995: 1.3097

That's absolute elite level play. But then he fell off, didn't have the longevity, etc. which pushes him to maybe top 20 all-time. The stats capture this VERY well. Aikman is actually a very good example for how stats with large sample size tell you which QB is elite, above average, average, etc. and over what periods of time. You're just proving my point.

 

The problem with how well Tua played last season is no player can consistently play at a "number 1" level every year. Tua could still play great football next season and instead of being ranked number 1 in this category or that category, he could be number 2, number 3 or number 4 but because of the consistent doubters of Tua, they will that "fall off" as the reason he shouldnt be Miami's quarterback.

 

They would be left with their pants down if that happened since they aren't in any position to replace him.

 

I think Tua falling off to top 6-7 is totally fine. That's usually around 1 standard deviation above the mean. But if he falls off into like the 8-12 range then it's once again one of these borderline cases and that's when I think you seriously start looking for a replacement.

btw.. most consecutive #1 rankings in passer rating is 4 years by Steve Young from 1991-1994. Utterly amazing what he did. And after missing 1995, he was #1 again in 1996 and 1997 lol. 6 out of 7 years #1.

 

Paying him as a top-5 QB when he's probably a ~15 talent means they're kicking the can of their eventual rebuild down the road. If he was the answer, he'd already have a contract in hand. Giants blew it by getting a new coach but not providing him with a replacement to develop. Daboll could have taken a Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, or Sam Howell (for examples) under his wing and they'd probably have similar upside for much lower cost going into 2023. And reasonable fans would write it off as the cost of changing regimes.

 

Tua could play 17 games at a high level for the next two seasons and the storyline will still be whether he can stay healthy.

 

Well to be fair 30-35 million probably won't even be top 10 when the season starts.

 

Would be the first two season period without significant injury of his career, at college or pro..

 

It still comes down to the G-Men's evaluation of his value. If he's really sending signals that he wants $45 million, I hope he has leverage to get it. But I don't see another team signing him as anything other than competition.

 

The question of his value absolutely has to factor in his health. I'm hyper-focused on the OL and seeing where the pressure comes from on every snap because I'm worried about him getting back up after being hit.

 

That is just negotiation but it doesn't change that he will end up getting too much.

 

Replace Daniel Jones? That shouldn't be too hard. Signing him to a big contract would be worse than signing Tannehill to a big contract now.

 

He's going to get paid. It doesn't help him that he's probably behind Carr, Geno and Jimmy G. as a top free agent. To say the least about Lamar, who has Jones' attributes in abundance. If I was the Giants, I'd have a good idea of how much each of them is looking to get before I'd make an offer for Jones. And if either of their prices was reasonable, I'd bring them in to see if I could sign him.

 

If he really wants 45m, then I’d definitely start kicking tires on other options, because while he did make progress under Daboll, he didn’t make THAT much progress.
That being said, the only one of those three I’d seriously pursue would be Carr. I think Lockett and Metcalf made Geno look good, and Jimmy G can’t be counted on to stay healthy for a full season - you’d have to invest in an above average backup with him.

I think they tag Jones and sign Barkley to a 3 year deal.

 

Tua was hit 25x last year. Brady was hit 55x. Herbert 72x. Wilson 65x. Cousins 84x. Maholmes 56x. Burrow 48x. Allen 40x (this doesn't include when he's running).

You got to stop shifting blame to the o-line for Tua's health issues. He's hit so much less than many QBs due to his quick release. He's just fragile. No offensive line is going to stop Tua from getting hit entirely.

 

I watched a lot of Seahawk games, Geno made Geno look good. Having quality receivers help, but he had a good year.

 

Holy context. Can you post the pass attempts/dropbacks for these guys? I can already tell you Cousins had 243 more passing attempts than Tua.

 

Widely available stat guys (Pressure tab):
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing_advanced.htm

...you could even do previous seasons. Guy doesn't get hit at all. Just very fragile.

 

You read what you expect to read instead of what people write. My post was in no way critical of the OL. I simply said I'm hyper-focused on the OL when he drops back, not that I expect it to collapse like it did in 2021. Stop trying to be so contentious and realize that some of us can offer criticism AND praise.

 

Happy birthday, #1.

 

That's irrelevant. Fact is Tua got hit way less and still missed more games due to injury than the other QBs mentioned. He's fragile, there is no arguing that.

 

To be sure, he did have a good year, best of his career by far. Not sure if it would have been as good on a team (like the Giants) with a way below average receiving corps. Either way, he’s in line for a nice raise; I just wouldn’t be the one giving him that money if I’m the Giants’ GM.

 

Tuas concussions what not because of line.The Bengals hit was he held the ball to long and the Packers hit was just normal football hit every QB takes and he spun the wrong way going down.

 

what hurts Tua's support is those 3 or 4 games where he was pretty bad for whatever reason. I like the guy, seems high character person so I hope he gets every cleaned up and is the face of the team