Today I had a total reversal on Watson, Tua, and the direction of the Dolphins

Yeah the picks had to be spread out until 2023 I think... That devalues the return some. But for the lions who are clearly in rebuild mode I do not think it matters that much or hurts them... They are going to suck next year and it is going to be a rebuild season. They will have 2 first round picks in 2022 one of them will be top 5 and the other around pick 20? ( Same situation the Dolphins are in this season. )

 

Rams are going to be interesting to follow in that case. They had the best defense in the NFL in 2020 (by points), but only average on offense. So this is them basically saying Stafford is all they need for a serious SB run. I don't think that was a good decision. Just look at the list of SB winning QB's in most years.

But we'll find out. Nothing better than an actual experiment.

 

Actually, this increases the chances Detroit spends more to move up in the draft this year to draft a QB. I've been a proponent of trading back a few spots for months, as I think we can grab one of Smith and Chase at #7 where Detroit is. If Detroit wants a QB this year at #3, they might pay handsomely. Draft value chart says that's worth a low first but maybe with their extra 1sts after the Stafford trade they're willing to pay more.

 

CBrad

I think they had to do something. The relationship and confidence with Goff was fractured. They will have a top 5 defense next year... They have a decent pair of RB... Akers as the season wore on was turning into a star...

Stafford is a known quantity... he will complete more than 65% of his passes throw more than 2 touchdowns for every pick... Be a QB that can throw for 4500 yards and have a QB rating of 95+

Kupp
Woods
Everett
Higbee

Pretty decent group there... No standouts like Hopkins or Metcalf... but not too shabby.. Considering how much the running game improved and how much Akers developed last year... With Stafford, it should be an above-average offensive unit. top 15 offense top 5 defense.

That is not a horrible experiment to make.

 

I am not sure the Lions move up now... Maybe they like Goff?

I was all in for trading back with the Lions... talked about it a bunch on another board recently. I think that in the #7 spot the Dolphins would get Pitts, Chase, or Smith... One of them would be there no question.

 

The thing about the Rams in that regard is that they're in the NFC, Brees is likely done, Brady may hit a wall next year, and that leaves only Rodgers and Wilson to contend with. If the Rams' defense can limit Rodgers and Wilson sufficiently and they can play well enough on offense with Stafford, they're in the Super Bowl...

...where they will likely get their asses kicked by Kansas City. I can't believe the Chiefs are favored by only three points this year. If I were a bettor I'd be all over that.

 

Hey Guy

Long time..

Not sure but your post is blank on my screen? LOL

 

...

Well that is still worth the gamble... get to the dance and tell the DJ to throw on some music.

 

Yeah I'll be very surprised if KC doesn't win it.

btw.. they already have odds for the 2022 SB lol:
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/super-bowl-lv-betting/2022-super-bowl-lvi-(next-years).sbk

In the NFC it's GB, TB and then the Rams. Well as I said we'll find out. I just think the QB is so important that it's not an accident the SB winner tends to have a great QB or one that played great that year. Can Stafford do that? I'll be VERY impressed if he does because statistically he's not in that category.

 

Think that means he has you blocked...or you have him blocked.

 

Brad

When you have the best QB in the NFL.... The fastest wideout in the NFL... a top 3 Tight end and a solid running game... ( not to mention a great complimentary assortment of secondary and tertiary receivers. ) You should be the Super Bowl favourites.

This is an offensive league and all of the rule changes for the last decade and a half have been to promote the offense. The Chiefs are the king of the f**king mountain right now.

 

you may well be correct.... His loss... (O;

 

Like Buffalo just did.

 

LOL

Buffalo does have amazing fans.

 

And neither one of those teams were close to winning the super bowl. Which gets to the root of the problem, very few teams are one player away. Even if it’s a franchise QB like Watson, Miami certainly isn’t a super bowl contender until they have better receivers, a better OL, a better running game and a defense that doesn’t get gashed by the Bills when playoffs are on the line.

Anything more than 2 1sts and a couple of 2-4 rounders, I say hard pass.

 

MLB

You bring up a great point.... Neither of those teams got over the hump.... As special as both of those players are... They are not a Franchise QB and a top 3 NFL player

So in that specific regard I think all bets are off when it comes to Watson

 

Oh really? Allen has been there for years and years? Because I could have sworn that he was in his third year in the NFL and that he'd started playing well in his second year.

 

Like the author of this post at first I didn't like the idea but thought about it. Miami hasn't had a true franchise QB since Marino and its been the one glaring spot for the Phins. Here is another thing Watson wants to play here, dont you think he would be open to restructuring his contract?
Yes it will cost some first round picks but Miami needs to go all in on this hand. I have nothing against Tua but lets be honest he didn't exactly impress anyone and yes I know he is a rookie and young, but other rookies in the league showed promise.

 

Their defense would have to be extremely strong, because again their likelihood of winning will come down to whether they can shut down players like Rodgers and Wilson enough that Stafford can play about as well as (or better than) them. They would then take the unlikely route to the Super Bowl, consisting of an average QB and an extremely strong pass defense (the likely route of course being the elite QB and the pass defense that's average or better).

 

bbq

It will likely cost 4 first round picks or 3 Plus tua to land Watson

 

Tua would have had to already start to have a progression like Allen's. Allen's biggest problem his first season was that he threw a lot of INT's, but he was already showing a lot of arm strength and great athleticism. Tua has shown neither.

 

When you pointed out that "they're both incredible options though and I'm very thankful the front office got us in this position in the first place", you hit the nail on the head.

I am amazed at the job the FO has done since Grier took over and Tannenbaum left.

They really do open up tremendous possibilities with large drafts containing lots of high picks. They follow it up with what appear to be successful player selections (successful to me means 50% or more are still with the team after 4 seasons). They haven't had 4 years of history yet, but they haven't hesitated to replace players that they see as don't fitting. They trade those guys if they can or else just cut them and bring in FA's (which is another success story, in my opinion).

 

Allen's arm strength was his biggest plus coming out of college. His athleticism/running was probably undervalued, but his biggest problem was accuracy. He cannot be an elite QB without accuracy regardless of the big arm, and he didn't really start to show he had the ability to fix that problem until later in year 2 and into year 3. Even at the end of year 2 many people still questioned whether he was a viable starter in this league.

Tua is a completely different QB than Allen. He doesn't and never will have that cannon, but few do and it is not a requirement as QBs such as Brady and Brees admirably show. If he can retain his accuracy he likely will see significant improvement in year 2 - with the injury now well behind him and a full offseason of coaching and S&C it's highly likely we will see a more mobile and stronger-armed QB next year in addition to the traits he already possessed.

Remember that Tua wasn't really even projected to start at all this past year coming off the hip.

 

The problem with this perspective is that it's not the truth from inside the building. You've never met the Houston Texans front office personnel so you don't know who they trust and who they don't. You don't know that what they say is "BS." That's really one-sided.

This is a story that's been concocted by the media which makes one side pure evil and the other pure victim. That's the easiest story to write, promote and sell. Quite frankly, I still don't quite understand the basis for the QB's supposed aggrievement, either. He was told he would have input on the HC? What exactly does "input" mean? Did he expect to select the next HC? At what point has a 25-year old player been able to select his coach? What the heck? Or is it that he doesn't like the owner? Okay, well why does that even matter? It didn't matter a few months back when Watson signed this massive contract? From outside, this seems like a situation where professionalism should triumph over personal opinions. Did he not like them getting rid of Hopkins? But wasn't that a Bill O'Brien move? So then they got rid of Bill O'Brien. I've heard that Watson like O'Brien. Okay, so what? O'Brien wasn't doing a great job. Welcome to the NFL Deshaun. HCs come and go. Or maybe it's that he doesn't like one of the owner's friends? I don't know who Easterby is but until he's talking or forcing the owner into horrible moves, I don't know what to say.

None of this makes sense. It doesn't make Houston look good that they're being vilified by multiple sources including ex-players. But it doesn't look good from the QBs perspective either who appears to be a bad combination of naïve and self-interested. What kind of player thinks he's going to get to pull the strings of an organization at 25? What does it say that during a down year, a player comes out demanding to be traded instead of stepping up and being part of the solution? Quite frankly, I'm wondering what Watson is thinking because he's a hero to that city, he's the face of that organization and will be for his entire career and he's being paid as much as anyone in the NFL. It says an awful lot that he's opting not to say anything at all during this situation. I don't know what your read is on Deshaun Watson but these are red flags that we can't answer without more information about what's going on.

Point is, there's a ton here we don't know. And listening to the media is not making us smarter. It's making us dumber and more one-sided.

So instead I just look at incentives. Watson can sit out if he chooses but the Texans have no incentive to move him. If he wants to sit out, that will only help the tank/rebuild. They'll lose more games and scapegoat Watson in the process. From Caserio's perspective, that's great.

I just don't see this going any other way that Watson either starting to talk or simply sticking to his guns and sitting out.

I can't imagine the Houston Texans releasing their golden goose simply because he wants out. Everyone on a bad team wants out. But that'd be a horrible precedent to set, particularly if you traded Watson for a few measly picks.

Look back to Miami trading Minkah Fitzpatrick when he asked out. They were able to get a R1 pick. Okay, Minkah was an unproven DB. At best, he was going to be one of 5 DBs on the field on a typical play. A QB is worth 10x that. Do you really think the Texans are going to let an elite QB slip away for a couple of high picks?

I wouldn't.

If that's indeed how this all ends, it'll take a LONG time before we get there. It'll only be after Watson sits out and the two sides eventually go through discussions. Right now, the two sides aren't even talking. But again, that's because of the player.

 

Watson's aggrievement primarily seems to have started when BOB traded Hopkins. Watson essentially learned of the trade via social media and was incensed that the team would trade his top weapon and close personal friend in such a lopsided manner without talking to him.

This was during the time the team was transitioning from Bob McNair (he of the "don't let inmates run the asylum infamy") to his kid Cal McNair, who seems to have promised better communication with their star player. This is also a time Watson was deciding to be more outspoken on social justice matters.

Before he was fired, O'Brien brought in former Patriots' chaplain Jack Easterby. Easterby seems to have quickly gained the confidence of Cal McNair, who considers himself a strong Christian. Easterby seems have been a strong voice in favor of O'Brien's midseason removal (ironically). Following that firing, McNair promised Watson would have a strong voice in selecting replacements, along with the famed search firm Korn Ferry. Watson reportedly was high on 2 potential coaches - Robert Saleh and Eric Beinemy. The Texans passed on interviewing either, and following a prayer session between Easterby and McNair, the pair flew to New England and hired Caserio on the spot, who was not on the lists of either Watson or the search firm. This is when things seem to have publicly spiraled, as Watson felt excluded and that his voice was unimportant, especially compared to that of this fraud Easterby.

Basically, ****ty communication and broken promises and an unhappy player seeing if he can assert more direct control of his future than the NFL is used to seeing, but is somewhat common in other sports (especially the NBA).

 

That's as much as I know about the situation, but that leaves a lot of unanswered questions.

Re: The Christian thing
Deshaun Watson is a Christian (as are the majority of football players) so it's unlikely Watson would view Easterby as a fundamentally evil person based on religious beliefs. For this reason, I don't think it's productive to discuss this in terms of religiosity. If Watson simply disagrees with Cal McNair taking input from a particular person then he should be talking to the team and trying to wrestle that influence back by building a relationship with the HC and GM. It's unlikely that the Owner is going to side with an outside party when the HC/GM/QB all recommend a different course of action. OTOH, if Watson has reason to believe that Easterby and Caserio are essentially joined at the hip and that he'll never have the input he wants, he should talk to the team, explain his grievance and declare openly the kind of input he's expecting to have on his next team. The problem here, is of course that it's unlikely Watson has much trade value if he insists on selecting the HC and potentially the GM of the team to which he goes. That's unprecedented (at least for a guy his age).

Re: The Social Justice thing
I don't see any direct evidence here to support the notion that the Houston Texans are actively involved in suppressing African-Americans. I'll leave it at that.

Re: The Eric Bieniemy thing
After another go-round of interviews have seen a bunch of teams hire other candidates, it's looking like Eric Bieniemy just isn't as desirable as people on the outside are assuming he is. This also undermines Watson's supposed advocacy of Bieniemy. If Deshaun Watson has direct evidence that Bieniemy is more capable than other candidates who've been hired, we would need to hear/see that evidence and judge it for ourselves.

 

Yeah like I said the Rams valued him as "above average". That however doesn't change what the stats say. It also doesn't in any way support your view that Stafford and Watson are of similar value.

Watson is elite, Stafford (even for the Rams) was not valued anything close to elite. Don't forget Washington traded 3 1sts and a 2nd (including one high 1st in the same year: the #6 pick) just for the CHANCE to draft an elite QB in RG3 without knowing whether he'd pan out.

There's simply no equating Watson and Stafford like you did, and the Rams trade just emphasizes that point.

 

The only thing that makes sense is it's a power grab by his agent Mulugheta (one of the best in the NFL) who seems to have convinced Watson he can make a ton more money through endorsements/marketing than he currently is making. Don't forget Watson is considered as talented as Mahomes but gets almost nothing in comparison to Mahomes in terms of national visibility in ads etc. I can see an agent stoking that ego.

And as I pointed out before Mulugheta has experience with this. This "trade me because I'm a disgruntled player" playbook was previously successfully employed with another client of his: Jalen Ramsey, who went to LA for 2 1sts and a 4th, a very impressive haul for a CB.

It's a power play, nothing else. Or at least nothing else makes sense. And as I pointed out in another post that also explains why the Jets are in play: it's NYC!

 

You've said "evil" several times here- it has nothing to do with that. This is about a top QB in his prime watching his franchise implode because the owner has more trust in a chaplain than his own front office and a consulting group headed by Tony Dungy and other highly respected football minds. It's not the "religious" angle at all- it's that a non-football person is making most of the football decisions for the team and a large group of employees are angry about it.

It would be the exact same thing if Easterby was a dentist or a gas station clerk- he's not qualified to make football decisions and he's manipulating the owner into some very bad moves.

I have no idea who you are or what you do for a living, but if you walked into work one day and the owner said, "We decided to lay off your entire division because my friend Pedro over at Circuit City prayed about it and convinced me it was the best move." How exactly would you react if your boss tells you some random person off the street that knows nothing about your company is now making major corporate decisions? Nobody wants to work in that type of environment.

 

If that’s truly the motive then I’ll pass. That’s not the kind of player I want immediately sitting atop my locker room leadership hierarchy by virtue of his salary, status, the youth of rest of my team, and what my team just gave up for him in trade.

There’s way too much self-interest there for my taste. You want the guy sitting atop your leadership hierarchy to be the most selfless guy on the team.

 

I don't think "evil" is really applicable. Nobody is necessarily portraying anyone as evil, moreso just incompetent. Just because you were a chaplain and share religion with Cal McNair doesn't mean you should be the biggest voice in his ear concerning purely football matters. The fact that this Easterby guy has suddenly ascended to defacto GM out of nowhere and with no practical personnel experience reeks of dysfunction, not evil. He fired a number of popular folks including the Texans' PR director, seems to have been involved with firing BOB and apparently had more influence than either Watson or a respected national search firm.

Watson feels like the organization doesn't value his opinion and that it is basically under the control of a guy with no actual football and personnel expertise. He considers the relationship with McNair to have soured to the point he feels it in his best interest to leave. The question is what - if anything - can Houston do to salvage the relationship, how far Watson is determined to take this and whether other teams are willing to part with something that can approximate Watson's value on the field.

You seem to be trying to frame this as right v wrong whereas - imo - it's more just about Watson feeling lied to and disrespected by the direction the team has gone. It's not right or wrong, it's just the way it is. Where that leads, we shall see.

 

I'm not as critical about a player's motives. What matters to me is whether they help the team win championships. There are so many highly selfish players that turn out to be key pieces of championship teams.

The best example is in soccer with Cristiano Ronaldo (top 2 player last decade, top 5 all time) who's won tons of championships. You want a guy who only cares about money? Try Sameul Eto'o who rejected the chance to become the world's highest paid player just to demand more! But he was a key player in winning championships.

In basketball you had Kobe Bryant, who might not have made these types of power plays like Watson but on the court he was selfish. Still was key to winning many championships. Brett Favre, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens were all selfish players that I wouldn't mind having on a team, even if the 2 WR's never won the SB though they both played in the SB.

So for me the question is whether Watson would continue putting up elite stats if he comes here regardless of his motives, and I don't see why he wouldn't. Thus, for me it's solely a issue of how much to give up in a trade.

 

Jalen Ramsey and Jamal Adams.

Aaron Rogers is trending in this direction also.

 

You equated Watson, Stafford and Lawrence as "Star QB's". Watson is proven elite, Lawrence is projected elite, and you put Stafford in the same category as the other two. That's equating the value of Stafford with the other two, or at least a lot of people reading what you wrote will think that. I clearly wasn't the only one.

You also said "MOST in the league consider him a rare talent." I think it's clear you're talking about Stafford being "elite" more than just "above average".

 

It’s not just whether the player is selfish; it’s whether he sits atop your locker room leadership hierarchy by virtue of how he was acquired, what he’s paid, and when he was inserted into the team in relation to its development.

It didn’t matter whether Randy Moss for example was selfish because New England’s team culture had already been well established and was being maintained by Tom Brady and other leaders. This team right now is at about the opposite end of that spectrum.

 

Stafford probably would be better in the immediate, but I don't think we have the team necessary to surround him with as a champion. Essentially, you're hoping you get something akin to Ryan Tannehill, but you don't have Derrick Henry, and Stafford is both quite a bit older and has several significant injuries in the last few years.

The teams looking to trade for him were teams that are severely lacking in QB play, lack a highly regarded young passer and would struggle to trade into the top 5ish area where you obtain those QBs.

If Tua does improve and pan out, he would be immensely more valuable on his rookie deal than Stafford. If not, then we have to take another shot. It's a risk, but the upside outweighs the likely small to intermediate boost a Stafford would bring.

Watson, as a top 5 - arguably top 3 - QB in the league, would be a different discussion.

 

Their situation is very different though. Rams are in Super Bowl or bust mode and their window isn't too far from slamming shut.

Whether someone thinks Stafford is great or just a little above average he still makes a lot of sense on the Rams. He makes very little sense on Dolphins.