I agree with you on the expected record, but I'd modify the argument for how offensive pass efficiency affects defensive pass efficiency and vice versa. Correlation between pass offense and pass defense, using passer rating, across NFL history averages -0.2, so it's small but not zero. There's a lot of variation of course because the standard deviation is 0.196 lol. For example, last year it was essentially zero (-0.0028) and it's actually been positive in some years with the highest ever being 0.1854 in 2004, and the lowest ever being a whopping -0.7761 in 1968. So that low correlation of -0.2 essentially says that whatever the influence is of pass offense on pass defense, or vice versa, it's on average pretty small if you include all situations across an entire game or season. That supports your argument. But the win probability argument I gave where you get 95+ rating for 60%+ win probability vs. 75- rating for 40%- win probability shows a BIG effect in specific situations. So yes, if you combine all situations together the overall influence is small, but in situations that occur less often like when you're way ahead or way behind in the game (especially late in the game where any point differential is magnified in terms of win probability) the effect is quite large in both directions.
One, you never plan on losing your QB1 for the season. Teams want a competent backup in there that can play at a high level at a moment's notice- Matt Moore is one of the best around at that. He hasn't lost a game off the bench in six years....dwell on that for a moment because I don't think any other team can say that (maybe NE can...I'd have to look back). Should we have a young QB3 in the wings? Sure....and we do. But he's not good enough to start the whole season because of youth. And unless we grabbed a QB in the first round of the draft, odds are pretty good that whatever name you throw in there wouldn't have been ready to be a solid backup in year one. Year 3-5....maybe??? Gase has been here less than two years though and it's pretty hard to fault him for not developing that QB3 when he wasn't even here long enough to make that happen. Two, I guarantee you that there are coke-heads throughout the NFL- that's what happens when you get around the money and adrenaline. Foerster was being recruited by 5-6 organizations because he was widely thought of as one of the best in the business- does it really matter if he's a coke head? Nope. But it matters if a prostitute posts a video of you snorting up at work while talking crap about your bosses. That's not on Gase at all. Three, Burke employed Joseph's "bend but not break" defense much like NE and other top teams have in recent years. It got us 10 wins last season- so I can't follow the logic of saying it failed last year without Jones on the field. Again, we're talking about a year-one head coach here...you're being far too critical considering what we accomplished. And this season was all on the offense with those early three and out and out and out and out; we were constantly playing from behind and couldn't do what we do best....man coverage while blitzing from everywhere. That version of our defense has looked awesome- it obliterated Brady for one of the biggest shocker wins of the season league-wide. We just haven't been able to put that defense on the field very often due to the scoreboard. Has Gase made mistakes? Absolutely. But he's also one of the few coaches in the NFL that seems to learn from his mistakes quickly. Trading Ajayi was such a bold move and it made the fan-base crazy angry...it took pure guts to make a move like that. Yet it was also unquestionably the right move for the team in a season that was spiraling out of control. Gase reinvented our entire offense twice this season without a bye week- name one other organization that's been able to do that in the past two decades?!? You can't because it hasn't happened. And again, I have to bring up a hurricane that cost us over two weeks of critical practice time while flying around the world and getting different training facilities set up...this was a season of a lot of unheard of obstacles. But we're about to finish 7-9? Gase should get coach of the year in my book.
No I'm not. The argument against Wilson's first few years was, that the defense actually allowed him to play better (and in turn, the offense). Without having to fear about the game getting away with a stifling defense, the QB can be more relaxed, press less, throw less INTs, make less mistakes. If that were true, that would mean a defense that was ineffective could affect the offense. You said, "The offense's ineptitude can affect the defense's performance, but vice versa isn't true." Not saying YOU made these arguments, but the arguments were made that the vice versa is absolutely true. Whether you made the arguments I dunno, not gonna go searching. But the arguments were made.
Yeah,no. The argument was that their defense meant he didn't have to do as much as the game wasn't on his shoulders. He wasn't playing from behind as much and got to grow into the job instead of being thrown to the wolves and have every outcome rest on his shoulders. (In the beginning, now he is all world and can take the team where ever he wants to go). Again, an offense (traditionally) gets tired slower than the defense. Therefore, if a Team X's offense is constantly going 3 and out, then Team X's defense is likely going to falter because they aren't resting. If Team X's defense allows the other team's offense to be on the field a lot, Team X's rested offense will still get tried at a slower rate then Team Y's rested defense.
But that's my point. If he didn't have to do as much, then a qb saddled with a terrible defense will have to press, make mistakes, offense suffers. if you're just talking about fatigue when you said "performance," well that's different. And I won't disagree. But just depends on what you mean by performance. Dhitchens post you were replying to didn't mention anything about fatigue, just results.
Ahh, I read your first post and replied before finishing the thread (hell I didn't even read any posts after that first one until now)
Dolphins screwed the pooch when they didn't have a competent backup in the building to begin with since they never had the confidence in Moore to take the reigns (why is Moore here anyways?). Then they **** the bed by signing a career underachieving retired player coming off season ending shoulder surgery on his throwing shoulder. Oh yeah, b/c "he knows the offense" . . . a lot of no good that did. If Gase was worth his weight in being an actually offensive guru, instead of the reality of having that rep hitching a wagon to one of the all-time great QBs in Manning, he could have made it work with a younger and more viable prospect. Though Gase has never developed a young QB talent, so there's that nugget to juggle. Cutler was a panic move, and a horrible decision at that.
I agree with half of your post. To begin, this is where I think you are wrong. I simply do not think you can reasonably expect to find a solid NFL player waiting around in free agency as the preseason is underway. Most solid QBs are gone at this point. As far as having a solid backup available, that is something that is way easier said than done. Ask yourself this, "How many good quarterbacks are currently walking the planet Earth?" My guess would be between 20-25. There are currently 32 teams in the league. By my best guess, I would say that leaves less than one good QB per team. If you don't believe me, go through each team in the NFL and ask yourself, "Would you trade Jay Cutler for that team's backup QB?" My guess is that there would be a small handful of "yeses." On the flip side, Jay Cutler is better than a small handful of teams' starters. Here is where I think you are correct. I have yet to see the brilliance that everyone has clamored about concerning Gase. I had an epiphany while on a run the other day. I think Adam Gase is Mike Martz 2.0. When he has a lot of talent around him *cough, cough, Peyton Manning*, he is a guru, a shaman, and a wise man all wrapped up into one, but when the talent is average (which is what it was this year), he is a middle of the road guy. Like I have said in my posts before, I think that our first round draft pick will be a turning point for the franchise. We really need expert talent evaluators making this decision. We need someone to properly evaluate Tannehill vs. a handful of QB prospects and ultimately make the right choice. I have very little confidence that Tannenbaum, Gase, Grier, and Ross can make this decision. I think we need to clean house and bring in someone better equipped to make this decision.
