My Opinion on Ryan Tannehill

I rarely disagree with you, but I definitely do on YAC being a QB stat. Hartline taught me that is purely a WR stat. In fact, it's one of the few football stats that can be entirely attributed to one player.

 

Actually this is an important point, but I have a slightly different take on it.

It's been well documented that ESPN's business model is in strife and some people are saying it is inevitable that ESPN is going to fail because its fixed costs are huge and consumers can get the product it sells cheaper and easier on the internet.

Who would pay money to obtain the propriety rights to their QBR when the plug is pulled on ESPN? How much us that propriety information worth on the open market? Since the only people who use it are people who have contractual relationships with ESPN I suspect the monetary worth of the QBR is approximately a bucket of warm spit. Compare that to DVOA or PFF and people have paid real money to get involved in those businesses.

 

hmmm, In that specific category I think qbr is the more accurate equation

 

All what I am saying is that I can see both sides. For example is hitting a receiver in stride on a 5 yard slant with yac a worse QB play than a QB throwing a jump ball 15 yards downfield where the receiver is smashed by 3 defenders when he receives the ball? QBR trats the latter as a better play, PR trats them as the same, but a lot of film analysts would say the first play was the better play.

Unless the maths show that:-
a) the receiver is respinsible for yac, more than QB or offence design (remember all the curl routes in sherman's offense?); and
b) there is sufficient difference in yac between teams to significantly alter QB performance evaluation; and
c) not a artifice of offensive scheme
Then it is a minor order variable and one that ratings systems should ignore.

 

Of c

but of course you're wrong, however. YAC is also a small function ball placement but more play call. Tannehill hero Fahey has some strong opinions on why Landry is open so much. The closer your pass is the LOS the more YAC you get.

That's why dominant WRs like AJ Green and Dez and Julio get 4-5 yac per reception, while Landry and Tate get 7.0 yac.

In 2013 AJ Green and Hartline averaged almost the same YAC.

I mean, Adam Humphries had more yac per reception than Landry last year.

 

Yeah, the originators of passer rating took the average efficiency stats (Y/A, comp%, TD% and INT%) from 1960-1970 and forced their weights to be equal to each other.

As far as whether passer rating is a better or worse measure over time as the game has changed, it seems like its predictive power has stayed similar across NFL history when you measure it by correlation to win% (for each year I looked at correlation between win% among games started and passer rating for every "starting" QB as defined by PFR):
http://img.pixady.com/2017/05/714350_correlationprwinshistory.png

As you can see, correlation to win percentage remains steady. The mean over all NFL history for starting QB's is 0.567. So passer rating has somehow kept its relevance more or less constant despite a much greater emphasis on the passing game.

 

Its not purely a right or wrong. If the QB throws a guy open, thus allowing YAC, then I don't have a problem giving credit to the QB. If the receiver runs a great route, thus getting open, or breaks a tackle or two to get into the open and gains YAC, then no, it's not appropriate to credit the QB.

 

Yes, yes, the QB has to throw the ball well...no **** Sherlock.

None of that means the WR will get YAC if he, himself, doesn't actually run with the ball and avoid tackles, the sideline, etc. Hartline had numerous well-placed balls that didn't turn into even decent YAC, because Hartline is objectively terrible at running with the ball. On no ****ing planet does it make sense to build Hartline up to tear down Thill. Hartline was made by Thill and is **** without him. Fact. And no, the one or two times Hartline did have long runs doesn't prove your point, as you can see his actual YAC numbers were completely and inarguably terrible. Wait a minute, weren't you one of the people screaming left and right that during the Hartline years that Thill's completion percentage was buoyed by short passes and that he needed to get his yards per pass up?

And the closer to the line the more YAC is all well and good, but of course, you lack the simple understanding that doesn't automatically equal quality YAC. That receiver still has to be able to produce or do you think Legedu Nananee would get great YAC if he caught the ball close to the line?

I know you have this overwhelming need to make everything about a QB while crapping on Thill and felating Brady, but it's just not working in this case....sorry. Maybe go back to acting like Brady's wife has no idea about Brady's medical status....oh wait, that's wrong too.

 

You just argued that it is purely based on the wr. I said no.

If Legadu could catch his balls near the los he would get yac.

How the hell is this about Tannehill? Serious? You guys have an unhealthy desire to defend Tannehill even in situations where he isn't being criticized. Even when he's being soemhwat defended.

I said it's on the QB as well. So if Landry is getting yac Tanny's placement is not hindering him.

If Hartline is getting similar yac than other elite WRs that catch the ball down the field the lower yac is not a negative reflection of Tanny or Hartline.

My argument literally takes away criticism from Tanny but because I didn't say "I want to suck Tanny like a teat" outright, and you can't see past level one of the words, you somehow derangely see my post as anti Tannehill.

Do you see how crazy that is??

 

And you guys think I love Brady because you guys can't stop talking about him. If his name was not brought up every single day by a poster, making some crazy argument like danmarino's committed worthy "he'd be out of the league if he was drafted when Tanny was," you wouldn't hear me talk about him.

In 2014-2015 it wasn't Brady. This board was obsessed with Russell Wilson. Wilson was the every single day mention around here. And again, silly arguments such as Wilson would have been cut if drafted by the Dolphins. These are real arguments made on this board. Insane. Brady and Wilson couldn't cut it here and wouldn't even be playing football anymore. You have to be on some strong meds to believe that.

In any event, I never talked about Brady because you guys didn't. It was Wilson. I was accused of being a Wilson lover. But I'm just battling back against ridiculous arguments because somehow, we need to bring down the elite QBs to make us feel better about our QB. Well I don't feel the need to do that. So be it.

In 2008 and on it was Matt Ryan, because I wanted Matt Ryan in the worst way. People were happy to have Jake Long.

Next year I predict it'll be Matt Ryan again. Maybe Andrew Luck. We'll see. It seems the board can't just talk about Ryan Tannehill. It needs to compare him to better QBs.

If y'all stop talking about Brady, you won't hear me bring him up. Notice you guys don't talk about Wilson anymore, neither do I. Let's just focus on Tannehill and hope he doesn't have his 2nd year slump in a new offense.

 

This YAC debate is a great example of where it would be nice if more discerning stats were collected and published, specifically the x and y coordinates of WR position and football position as a function of time. With that kind of data for every pass you'd have what you need to actually estimate the percent of YAC that is due to the QB vs. WR vs. any other categorical data (e.g. play call). Point is, we need velocity (speed AND direction) metrics before, during and after the catch.

This is also an example of where I think the potential power of stats isn't yet fully understood by NFL FO's because they have the resources to get this kind of data and apply statistical analysis to it and I've never heard of anyone doing it. The reason stuff like this is important is because it allows you to do in a principled way what ESPN's QBR and DVOA try to do: determine how much credit different players should have for a play.

 

Yes, that is my argument. I clearly stated it in the post you started in on.

Sure, I'm crazy because I called you on your premise. Let's stop pretending we haven't been arguing with each other for just under 10 years now and that each new post is a wholly different experience where I can't possibly see where you're going.

You backhanded Fahey, BECAUSE he's a staunch Thill supporter and you're not (but you would be if Thill was Brady). You were trying to set up an argument where you put me in a Catch 22 where I had to agree with the QB being very important to YAC or to argue against Fahey's stance on Landry. Your hope was probably that I'd argue against Fahey so you could then, later on, use my arguments against his position on Landry to counter my agreements with his take on Thill.

It's pretty standard JD fare and is one of your top two favorite argument tactics along with burying the fight in semantics.

 

I backhanded Fahey. Notice I didn't backhand Tannehill. He is a lover. And I did that so the source wouldn't be questioned. He loves Tannehill and HATES Landry. He thinks Landry is schemed open on too many of his plays to be considered elite. And that's the point I was bringing up. You think it's solely on the WR.

I say no, and provided two examples that literally defend Tanny. But all you see is Red.

You have quite literally argued both sides now.

So, the QB has to throw the ball well, but YAC is "entirely" "purely" a WR stat.

Which is it?

 

All catches need the QB to throw the ball well. Now sound out the words with me....yards-AFTER-catch. Did you see that? After the catch. After. A WR can get YAC whether the QB "throws him open" or not. Landry is a perfect example of that. Another from our recent past was Charles Clay. An example showing no matter how good the QB throws it the WR isn't getting YAC is Hartline. He was schemed and thrown open....and his YAC yards were demonstrably terrible.

Is that because of the QB or the WR?

 

I've seen some of the things were they use sensors to track that thing for one or two players, but on broadcasts (NFL or ESPN) they seem to use it for very trivial things.

But in principle that data is niw obtainable. I think maybe the velocity delta with WRs before and after catch alone would give us a good idea as to whether the QB is throwing the WR open or whther the WR is making tbe play. Accurate throws get caught instride and the WR will have a much lower velocity change than an inaccurate throw where the WR has to make more extreme physical adjustment to catch the ball.