So....forgetting the draft, are we a better team than that one exiting the playoffs?

You're cherry picking about 60 running plays out of about 260 running plays. I understand that you do this because it makes your premise seem correct, but you're wrong.

However, when you factor in all running plays from the left and right side, there was statistically no difference. I understand that this might be too complicated for you to understand, but it's true. Trust me.

 

Again, this is why your lack of actual film watching and knowing what you are talking about makes your arguments meaningless. Do you know how many variables could affect any normal run? You really think YPC is the barometer for our run blocking? Bushrod was the worst rated guard in the league, and our YPC were that big only because Ajayi broke numerous huge runs and was statistically one of, if not the best, tackle shedding RB's in the league.

Hence why PFF is a much better barometer for the actual performance of players rather than your uninformed, useless stat using, homer goggles seeing posts on here.

 

lol...Only a buffoon would insinuate that looking at the running yards total and ypc in its ENTIRETY is meaningless when trying to determine the effectiveness of the oline in regards to right and left sides.

PFF is ****. Bushrod was rated the worst by PFF, right? lol...However, that horrible OG just re-signed AND helped produce the same amouny of rushing yards as Tunsil and Albert.

I could care less, when discussing this topic, the "variables". The left side and the right side of the line produced nearly identical rushing yards and ypc.

I can't believe this is even an argument. lol....

 

There's something a little confusing here....

If the right side YPC was similar to the left because of Ajayi's tackle breaking, then why didn't his tackle breaking have the same effect on the left? Basically, for what you're saying to be true, then:

- Ajayi would have gotten more yards on the left due to the superior blocking AND his tackle breaking ability

OR

- Ajayi only breaks tackles well on the right and not so good on the left.

 

Youre the one proving that you're the buffoon with this post.

And ahhh, ok, so PFF is bad because they dont know the play calls and who is blowing assignments, etc, yet youre completely comfortable with no context whatsoever saying the left side of the line is just as good as the right side using counting stats?

So if Tunsil and Albert opened a gaping hole on the left side and Ajayi hits it and picks up 5-6 yards, and Bushrod completely whiffs on a block, but Ajayi breaks a few tackles and also picks up 5-6 yards on sheer effort and ability, the blocking was the same on that play? Hence why PFF actually looking at each player in each play is specifically valuable for actually determining who the good guards are.

Using YPC to each side is beyond ignorant for the guy discrediting what PFF actually does.

And newsflash, PFF ranking Bushrod the worst guard in the league and the dolphins re-signing him doesnt make him good, it means the dolphins just re-signed a guy who was rated as the worst guard in the league. Thomas, Turner, and Douglas were also rated some of the worst olineman in the league, on top of a bunch of other terrible olineman that we have had in recent years.

 

No, i'm saying that YPC is not an adequate measure of how good any one side of the line plays. Hence why I put trust into people who actually watch how guys perform on every play and on every team and can standardize offensive line performance when just about everyone here doesnt actually either watch the line play or know how to assess what they are watching. Also, the numbers to the right side of the line take into account James play at right tackle, and he was graded as having a great year against the run.

 

You keep singling out Bushrod here. I think you have no idea what's going on.

I'm not surprised.

Here, let's see if I can dumb it down enough for you to understand.

Rock Sexton said: "We excelled at running to the left side of the oline..."

I showed him the rushing totals from both sides of the line in both total yards and ypc.

In the future, and before you open up that hotdog washer you call a mouth, maybe you should actually read a thread before you interject stupidity into said thread?

 

No one is talking specifically about Bushrod.

Once more:

Rock Sexton: "The left side excelled at run blocking."

ME: Well, the left and right sides both produced nearly the exact same rushing yards and ypc. So, if yo ubelieve the left excelled the right side did also.

YOU: Derpa...derp..bleep...nuances...PFF..slurp...derp..James play good....Budshrod not play good...duh..err...burp...

 

All I want to talk about is YPC right side vs YPC left side. You said the reason the YPC is similar between both sides even though the left was vastly superior to the right in run blocking was because of Ajayi's abilities to break tackles. You were saying that his ability to break tackles made up for the difference that would be there in YPC due to the right side's inferior blocking. I'm saying that doesn't make sense.

Ajayi's tackle breaking ability is a constant. He can break tackles on the left as well as he can break tackles on the right. So, if that's true, the YPC on the left should be higher than on the right.

I'm worried I'm not making sense...

 

You're making sense...

 

You realize there are a lot of people that watch tape and dig into every detail they can find on a player (or unit)? And that they often disagree with each other? Just look the different draft boards and the different choices different teams make.

Which "expert" do you trust when they don't agree with each other??

And if they don't agree with each other, how can you claim their analysis provides an "adequate measure" of player performance?? Makes no sense.

YPC isn't the be-all/end-all of rating a RB or rating OL performance in the running game but at least the methodology is transparent and there are no memory issues to worry about. You shouldn't dismiss it so easily.

 

But PFF man!

It's funny because he interjected himself without reading the thread.

I used YPC and rushing yards because someone asserted that the left side of the line "excelled" at run blocking while the right side did not.

Well, if both sides produced the same amount of rushing yards and ypc, how is one side that much better? Luck? Coincidence?

It's almost as if I could say, "Well, Aaron Rodgers threw 57 TD's and set the new single season record". And then someone can come along and say, "Well, PFF has Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball poorly. So no, he didn't set a record for TD's passes." haha

 

Yeah.. the pff thing.. hopefully phins18 comes around someday to understanding their ratings methodology isn't that credible.

As to your argument vs. Rock.. I think both of you have a point, neither necessarily wrong if properly worded/qualified. I must admit though some of the responses are quite funny.

 

I don't see Rock's point. How can you say that one side excelled at run blocking but not the other if they both produced the same yards and ypc?

Bushrod and James run blocked as a unit just as well as Albert and Tunsil did as a unit. We're not talking about individual players. And we're not talking about a small sample size here. It's not like I looked at one series or one game. This was true for the entirety of the season.

 

Yeah for his original claim in post #40 where he just says "left side" I think your stats are good evidence against (left vs. right YPC), but it is interesting that runs to the left sideline have such a high YPC so he should have started with that argument.. it does say something about different parts of the line.

 

Yeah, but even then you're talking about 25 plays to the left side. That could be an anomaly. Especially considering that the overall runs (~260-265) to each side are so similar.

 

OK.. I ran a simulation to get an idea of what the standard deviations would look like if I knew precisely which runs were "left sideline" etc.. (which I don't). What I did was take all of Ajayi's runs, remove all the ones pro-football-reference says were to the "middle", and then randomly sampled with sample size N=26 from that list (includes all runs to left or right). For each sample I took its mean and looked at the distribution of means by running the simulation 10,000 times.

The standard deviation came out to be 1.807. Anything beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean would pass a statistical significance test and 8.6 YPC for the left sideline is at least 3.7 YPC beyond any mean to left or right. lol.. 3.7 is almost exactly 2 standard deviations away (just a tad beyond), so we're basically right on the boundary to say the left sideline runs are statistically significant.. barely enough to at least make an argument.

 

Awesome!

And another good point you made; were the "sideline" runs actually meant to be to the sideline or were there breakdowns in the o-line which forced Ajayi outside? If that's the case then maybe the right side broke down more often and thus created more runs to the "sideline"? Which would give credence to Rock.

However, and according to PFR, who doesn't account for "sideline runs" (or at least none that I could find), the totals for each side are nearly identical. So, even with the left "sideline runs" being at a higher ypc (according to ESPN), the averages and totals even out in the end when all runs (sans the middle) are accounted for.

 

Not until we significantly upgrade at one more or both guard spots.

With Moore we are avg at best.

With Tannehill we are decently above average.

Without new guard talent, we will see Moore starting at some point.

 

I read the thread. And again, YPC does not tell you the whole story as opposed to watching tape individually for each player.

To make an analogy, 2 pitchers in baseball can have a 3 ERA. That doesnt tell you anything as to the specifics of how that pitcher actually performed. There are tons of other variables that can make one pitcher with a 3 ERA terrible and the other really good.

 

Except you cant wrap it around your ****ing skull that YPC is a stupid ****ing measurement by itself to determine offensive line effectiveness.

 

I realize that, and as ive said numerous times, i dont look at PFF as anything close to the end all be all. I look at them as one of many actually informed opinions on players that people like Marino (the poster) dont actually have, given that i can guarantee you he has not looked at nearly the amount of information they have.

Of course people can disagree watching the same tape, my point about PFF is that they are infinitely more informed than this guy posting on a message board. You can disagree with their opinions, but you cant disagree that they are doing 100X the work to formulate their opinions then the blowhard who thinks he knows a lot more than he actually knows.

 

If only there were a bunch of people who look at the tape of every play and every player on that play in depth to give you a knowledgable opinion on if that really was an anomaly!

 

There is nothing to come around to. You guys just dont get that I can trust a much more informed and tape backed opinion while also not thinking of them as the end all be all. They are an opinion. They are not omnipotent. But they are a data and tape based opinion, unlike what most people on here are doing when evaluating players. They are one of many opinions and not all knowing and certainly capable of being wrong, but they are much more informed opinions than any of you one here.

 

That's not what happened, though.

It was qualified more than that.

 

I may have found the comparable stats in PFR. It looks like they label "sideline runs" as "right end" or "left end" runs (see at bottom and count the number of "left end" and "right end" runs.. almost exactly the same as ESPN numbers):
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AjayJa00/rushing-plays/2016/

Average for "left end" is 8.76, real close to that 8.6 (there's 25 in PFR and 26 such runs in ESPN so that's probably where the difference is).

Anyway.. if that's the data, then the reason left end is relatively high is because you just don't have many negative runs there. Look at the bottom of the list and see how many negative "right end", "right guard", "left guard", etc.. runs there are while there are almost no negative "left end" runs. Big positive runs occurred in both directions.

 

It may have been, and YPC is an OK stat to just see the overall effectiveness of your running game, but it is a horrific way to judge individual run blockers. It is like using ERA in baseball to say a pitcher is good, except even ERA is a better determinant on the ability of an individual pitcher than a teams YPC to a certain side of the line is on an individual offensive lineman's run blocking ability.

 

That's not what happened. And that's not a valid analogy.

No one said the YPC = X, therefore Bushrod is good.

The point was and is, both sides produced similar YPC numbers showing that one side wasn't better than the other at run blocking. That's it. Nothing more.

 

And again, like I said, YPC alone is a stupid thing to rely on when trying to explain the ability of our run blockers. There are a bunch of different variables that goes into that, not to mention that those numbers dont tell the whole story considering James graded out very well in run blocking next to Bushrod and Tunsil and Albert both received poor run blocking grades last year.

Like I said, if Albert and tunsil open up a huge hole with great run blocking and say Ajayi misses the hole and only gains 3 yards, and then Bushrod completely whiffs on a block, his man penetrates into the back field, and Ajayi makes him miss and is able to get 3 yards, does that mean the run blocking on both plays was equal? Because that is essentially what you are saying when you use YPC as the sole measure of each side of the OL's effectiveness.

And yes, the ERA analogy is a pretty spot on analogy, except it is a more reliable measure of a pitchers ability than YPC is for a measure of an OLman blocking ability.

 

Nice.

Maybe he'll understand what's going on now.

 

I spoke too soon.

You're still lost

 

Not lost at all. you have a complete inability to understand nuance.

 

I said side not player. So it shows how good or bad a side is.

And again, Ajayi's ability to break tackles is a constant regardless of the side he is running too.

 

hahahah!

You're the one who doesn't understand WTF is even happening.


Rock Sexton: The left side of the o-line excelled at run blocking.

ME: The left side produced nearly identical rushing yards as the right last season. Even their YPC was nearly identical. Both sides produced the same.

YOU: *mouth breathing*...PFF say Bushrod bad...nuance...film...*sniff*...der...der....der...ERA...baseball...

Why do I see this when I read phins18 posts?

 

Again, YPC no matter if it is for an individual Olineman or a side of your OL is a horrible way to evaluate the run blocking.

If you didnt get the ERA analogy, it is like saying all players in the NBA averaging 25 ppg are the same. It doesnt take into account shot efficiency, shot difficulty, your role on the team, other players on the team enabling more space, etc.

YPC is fine if you want to get a very broad overview of your run game, but using YPC alone is a horrific way of evaluating individual lineman or sides of an offensive line.

 

I have a much better understanding of what im watching and how to interpret certain statistics, that's abundantly clear. If you dont get why YPC is a stupid ****ing stat to evaluate offensive line play then you can continue to act like you are some extremely knowledgeable football fan who knows so much more than people who watch film, but in reality to anyone with the ability to think critically at the argument you are making and the context of the YPC stat itself, you sound ****ing absurd.

YPC is a terrible stat to use by itself to evaluate run blocking on each side of the line.

 

I'm not evaluating run blocking in a vacuum. I'm merely comparing run blocking between sides of the same line. That is not a horrible way to do it. I'm not using anything alone. I'm not making a judgment of a player or side. I'm not saying one side was good or bad. I'm not even comparing sides between two different teams. This is the same team, during the same games against the same teams under the same conditions with the same RBs.

You simply aren't understanding this discussion at all. I suspect that by your adherence to this notion, it is confirmed by the fact you're still not acknowledging the breaking tackles thing.

If Ajayi breaks a tackle for 3 yards, he would do that for either side. Let's assume for ease of explanation, Jay's broken tackles account for 1extra ypc. So before broken tackles are factored in, if on the left he's getting 4ypc and on the right he's averaging 2ypc. Then with broken tackles on the left he'd be getting 5ypc and the right he'd be getting 3. Him breaking tackles doesn't just affect one side.

 

Dude, I understand what you are doing. Im saying YPC is a very obviously bad way to do that. As part of a number of things to look into it is fine, but alone it doesnt tell you anything about the individual blocking, just the overall results, which if you dont actually go in and look at the tape, is pretty useless. Again, like the ERA and PPG in the nba analogy, numbers quite often dont tell you the true story by themselves.

 

I'm not a stats guy so I don't need the whole "stats don't tell the whole story" spiel. I promise you, no one has argued that more on this site in its history than me.

There are all kinds of variables that go into all of this. No one is arguing that. No one. However, if you think this shows nothing, which is the way you're acting, in the specific context it's being used, then you're flat out wrong.

Let's try it from this angle....what are these crazy variables that make YPC useless in this specific discussion? You can't use tackle breaking because I've already debunked that.

 

Showing nothing might be strong, but it doesnt tell you anything more than a basic overview of how the offense performed running to that side. YPC does not tell you anything about the ability of individual blockers.

Just a few variables off the top of my head: outlier runs that skew numbers, RB effort, RB misdiagnosing blocking in front of him, TE's on one side of the formation, where the WR's are lined up so as to have another blocker on one side or to attract attention away from the side you're running it, the quality of players on the other side of the ball on each side of the center. Im sure im missing obvious ones, im just busy right now.

YPC is OK in telling you how the overall offense was at running the ball, it is a piss poor method of accurately and in depth looking into the performance of the lineman.

And you still havent answered my hypothetical. How is YPC an effective way of measuring run blocking if i can give you 2 drastically different examples of great blocking and poor blocking, and have them end up in the same yardage gain?