NFL.com's Greg Rosenthall has RT17 ranked #25 QB in NFL

Yea well Tannehill had better numbers than Cam in pretty much every significant statistical category last year from what I remember, so your point doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Just goes to show stats don't mean s***. And they won the division with a losing record and beat a QBless team in AZ in the playoffs, how impressive.

 

Didn't Fin-O bring Cam into this? It wasn't anyone defending Tannehill who brought him in, if I remember correctly.

 

Well this response was all over the place. First, "yes" I think he would have been drafted and "yes" I think it mattered a little bit. For the record, I am not a big Johnson fan that thinks he would have been a star in this league if not for the injury. I do think the injury is what led to his benching and not getting drafted. I responded to what appeared to be either an omission or "not knowing" what the context was around Johnson losing his starting job and not being drafted.

Do you have any examples of QBs that injured their throwing shoulder during their final college season and then were drafted? Comparing Johnson's situation to Gurley's is comparing apples to oranges. Have you kept up with players ability to come back from ACL surgery recently? Had Gurley's injury occurred pre-Peterson's injury and return he surely wouldn't have been drafted so high. The same is not true of QBs with shoulder problems.

No idea what the point is with the Kingsbury, Henne, Brady reference. Perhaps you are projecting I think something that I don't. And Pat White? WTF does that have to do with Johnson? Johnson wasn't a gimmick player that could possibly run the wildcat, but a big, strong-armed QB that lost his velocity on his passes.

I didn't say Johnson would have been similar in draft status to Tannehill. My response was in regards to why Johnson didn't get drafted. Had he been healthy and had a similar or better year to his Junior year then I believe he absolutely gets drafted. Perhaps somewhere in rounds 3-5. Tannehill should be grateful he couldn't beat out Johnson as it allowed him to be drafted on "potential" rather than production allowing him to be over-valued and over-drafted in a QB desperate league by a QB desperate team. He is the same QB today as he was at Texas A&M when he was on a talent-laden offense. This was a Jeff Ireland pick. How much more needs to be said than that?

As far as where did Johnson rank coming in to his senior season in 2010, here is a ranking that has him 6th (not knowing the effects of his shoulder):

1) Locker
2) Luck
3) Mallet
4) Moore
5) Keenum
6) Johnson
7) Pryor
8) Ponder
9) Keapernick
10) Gabbert
11) Dalton
12) Stanzi
13) McElroy
14) Taylor

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...wer-ranking-the-nations-25-best-quart/page/21

They pretty much nailed a who's who in QBs getting drafted. To believe that Johnson would have been drafted if he was healthy his senior is pretty darn reasonable.

If interested, here is a decent story on Johnson's process of trying to make it in the NFL.

http://www.seahawks.com/news/2013/0...sual-path-leads-him-seahawks’-rookie-minicamp

“I’d been doing it my whole life, but after I hurt my shoulder I had to pretty much re-learn how to throw,” he said. “I did that while spending time with Kevin, then I actually switched my grip up with Pittsburgh.”
Johnson said he lost his release point when he injured his shoulder at A&M. The result? “I couldn’t throw the ball 50 yards my senior year,” he said. “And that was my one big thing – my arm strength. So it affected me mentally. It affected how I played. It affected me at the combine. It affected a lot of things.”
For a passer, there aren’t a lot of things that can be worse than losing your release point.

 

After 20 pages I'm sure he was mentioned earlier especially since there are multiple lists of qbs posters think are better but the most recent iteration was here

http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...25-QB-in-NFL&p=2728173&viewfull=1#post2728173

Before that it was a discussion of how Newton, Taylor and Wilson were better at avoiding pressure etc ... posted by you

 

"He is the same QB today as he was at Texas A&M when he was on a talent-laden offense."

"During the 2010 season, he (Jeff Fuller) broke the Aggies' all-time record for touchdown catches. The record was previously held by Bob Long, who caught 19 touchdowns during his career from 1966–68.[13] Fuller also became the second Aggie in school history to reach 2,000 receiving yards."[14]

Some talent lol. He's out of the league now btw.

 

I am comparing their QB rating, and I can do that and its fair. I'm not saying or implying Tannehill will turn into Cam and run for a million yards. I'm saying if Tanenhill benefitted from an improved OC, oline, commitment to the running game and being able to audible its very likely (as I've been saying) that his QB rating would jump significantly.

Would people be thinking we should trade Tannehill for a 7th round pick if he was 98.9 QB rating this year? No.

 

Yeah but then Fin D minimized how good Cam is.


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Wait, if wins and losses are not an actual QB stat because your reasoning is a QB doesn't win or lose by himself then how can QB rating be considered a stat since a QB doesn't complete passes by himself?

 

I think his passer rating would improve as well if we had an above average line..im not sure to what degree or what it means in the big pic of winning, but I do know those 3000 rushing yards are kind of a big deal when it comes to overall qb value and winning.

 

I thought devon wylie was gonna be a player but nope.

 

Along with those 33 rushing TDs his first 4 years (40 now).

 

Lol.

Please explain how me saying we need to improve things other than the QB to increase QB rating is me making the argument that QB rating is a QB only stat?

 

You don't reread your posts?

 

I said this in the post you quoted:

Now do the stand up thing and admit you made a mistake and we'll move on.

 

Right, but I was pointing out why he's better, and Tannehill shouldn't be compared to him.

 

Nor to mention, we've argued for years against the idea that QB rating is a purely QB stat

 

Its just so freaking ridiculous.

I mean if that simple logic is missed and the historical evidence (as you mentioned) is ignored, isn't it fair to question literally everything that person thinks?

I mean if a person told you an apple was an orange, wouldn't you question everything they said about fruit?

 

Here's the other thing...despite Newton's play, the Panthers still have 3 losing seasons out of the 5 seasons he's played.

So, whether Tannehill is elite or not, I could care less. The fact is, other established "franchise" QBs have still struggled to "will their teams to wins". The team around the QB matters. Alot.

 

A Qb with the skills of a Cam Newton has no business being judged by QBR...dude is a straight up playmaker from the womb. He had his growing pains like all, but he has developed into one of the best passers in the league and still has that unique playmaking ability. He makes 5-6 throws a game you rarely see most QB's (including our own) make.

Not disagreeing that any OL improvements didn't help....but this guy is just a great football player regardless of what is put around him.

Oh, and Mike Shula is no dummy.

 

Incorrect.

The argument, for BOTH win/loss record AND QB rating, is that it's not purely a QB stat. In other words, looking at rating, or win/loss, to make a conclusion on a QB is faulty. We've given numerous examples of this over the years. It's generally why other QBs get brought up...not because we're trying to compare the QBs, but because we're trying to show similarities or differences in the teams around them.

In this case, FinD clearly stated that improving the TEAM would improve Tannehill's rating, which is EXACTLY in line with our argument all along. Further, I'd improving the the team to improve rating is what he's saying, which he did, it is exactly OPPOSITE of what you're trying to twist his writes into.

Again, another example of why these discussions go nowhere. Our position is continuously exaggerated and misrepresented.

 

Ive been at the gym all day??

 

FTR, I'm not judging him by his QB rating. I'm merely pointing out that his QB rating jumped when all the things some of us have been beating the drum for Tannehill, were given to him.

His rating jumped 10 points. I see no reason the same thing wouldn't happen to Tannehill....and if it did, would people be calling for Tannehill's head?

That was my point.

 

I don't remember...I thought you posted up Something to do with him.

Don't the girls at the gym complain when you lick the benches after they're done?

 

I don't know, depends on how those stats were accumulated....did he check down a lot? Did he put up a lot of these numbers in garbage time?

He needs to improve on 3rd downs for sure, he also needs to get that Alex Smith feel for the pocket and when to just tuck and run. I would like to see him anticipate his WR's better, trust his arm and try to make plays. He starts doing these things?? And I won't care what his passer rating is.

Just like last Monday, he didn't put up numbers that will win over many stat geeks...but he played the QB position about as good as he had in a year. Was he perfect? No. But he actually looked like a capable QB and that was encouraging.

But then there was last week....and all the same questions remain.

 

Not sure I would be to keen on a girl bench pressing, but them yoga pants on the flexor machines???

 

Right, but since I'm saying most of his issues that you highlight are because of (or even just made worse) by the the things outside of Ryan/Cam's control, then fixing those things should improve the QB rating for Ryan since it did for Cam.

 

Always talking and never listening. Cam is a much better passer and runner. Cam handles pressure better. He is a huge part of the running game, unlike Tannehill. He's proven he can audible. You don't get it. No reasonable OL/OC/RB combination will make Tannehill anywhere near as good as Cam or Wilson. We'd need future Hall of Famers to get him there.


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From a statistical standpoint I do not doubt any QB wouldn't benefit from some help. Our next hire and the philosophy they install will be HUGE. This is the biggest reason a lot of us are pro Mike Shula. The name is great and all, but he also is the best possible candidate for the job and for Ryan.

Could it also be that he recognized the Panthers OL issues and countered it with an overall better scheme that masked a unit that had been notoriously bad? I think so. Hire Mike Shula then cross your fingers we can get an infusion of talent in the back 7 on defense.

 

I'm not knocking what you said originally. But just showing I went back a couple pages to see who brought Newton up

 

Yeah, I remember saying that, but I could have sworn it was due to some other talk involving Cam. I could be wrong, or it could have been in another thread? Either way, I was not trying to compare to Cam, or denigrate him in some way.

 

There is no single stat that is purely an individual stat.

Have you guys noticed it's only the posters vehemently defending Tanny that brings up "purely a qb stat?" We had a respectable poster just a few pages back (maybe it was another thread) saying you shouldn't use YPA to assess or rank QBs because it isn't a pure QB stat.

There isn't a single stat in all of football that is purely an individual stat. So what's the logical conclusion to that? That you can't use any stats to assess any individual player? Absolutely not.

Is YPA a QB stat? Is passer rating? ypa? completion %? TDs? INTs? Wins and Losses? Playoff record?

In baseball pitchers are judged on wins and losses and ERA yet they control neither of those completely.

Again, there isn't a single stat that is purely a QB stat. But you use ALL of them to judge a player. All of them.

 

My nitpick with Newton is his completion % it's still pretty damn bad. I don't now if he will ever get to 65% but if he does, he'll truly become Superman. But his throwing mechanics are so funky

 

Couple things that don't help his cause in that regard, he wings it deep as much as any QB I watch....his best WR is Ted Ginn who god bless him, if he had hands would be a 1st team All Pro this year.

 

There's no such thing as individual stats. The comparisons that have been made are ridiculous, though.


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I get that, I really do. My caveat in it all, is that this team, all around, is bad, and has been bad. I just don't think that using all those criteria together, to judge Tannehill, is accurate.

The team, even more than last year, which is hard, is a dumpster fire. The defense, which I thought was overrated last season, is decimated this year. The oline is worse, wouldn't with two more starters out, than probably ever before, which is hard to fathom. We fired a significant portion of our coaching staff mid-season.

 

If Tannehill had a mid range OL and Miller averaged 15-20 carries per game, which QBs would you compare him to?


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i agree with all of that.

 

Sure you can use them, but they have to be weighted and they aren't.

The problem is people say QB X sucks cause look at his W/L record without weighting it.

 

You can just dismiss those posters and don't engage them. For me, I weight everything. The W-L record is something that gains more weight over time. One or two years, no. After 10 years fairly or unfairly they will be judged on that. What good QB is saddled with a bad team for 10 years straight it is highly unlikely. After 15-20 years absolutely it just is. I look at the totality of the performance and passer rating, ypa, completion %.

But also signature wins. Ryan really has one signature win but really needed two. It was going toe to toe to beat the Patriots in the last few minutes and putting the team at the door step of the playoffs. It takes a team to win and Michael Thomas sealed the deal sure. But it was a signature win. Those have been non-existent since then. All his fault? Of course not. QBs don't win the whole game themselves. But it's situational. As bad as the defense or the offense has played, was there a chance to make a play and win it anyway? Did they execute? That's what I look at.

Ignore everything that happened before this very moment and see, was there a play Tanny could have made to win the game. I'm not looking for him to play offense, defense and special teams. If they lose every game 30-40 yeah I'm blaming the defense just like with Romo going 8-8 every year even when he's fantastic. It's the totality of the circumstances.

Go watch his 2013 game against the patriots and I see someone who played damn well. I'm not impressed with 2014 as many and in 2015 he's stagnated. But it can all be rescued.

 

I mean you don't seriously expect someone to weight these things with statistical exactitude, do you? It's absurd.

I typically look at Passer rating, ypa, scoring offense, and W/L (based on expectations and playoff type games). Points per pass attempt is another solid measure. Those first four are areas that, if some or most are really happening, then the guy is probably good. Then watch the guy play, see if it matches up.