Is Lamar Miller the KEY to the playoffs for us this year?

He's not "THE" key, but he is definitely one of the keys. This roster when healthy is pretty good, but with the exception of WR and DL we have very little depth. So losing any of Tannehill, Miller, Grimes, Jones, Albert, etc.. could make a pretty big difference record-wise unless someone who hasn't stepped up steps up as a decent replacement.

 

IIRC, Miller was pretty banged up at one point during the middle of the season. I know he was limited in the Detroit game, and I think he was as well in the TNF game against Buffalo. It'll be interesting to see how they partner him with Ajayi; I think Ajayi will be more of a between the tackles runner than Miller.

 

With the new receivers the running game could be more productive.

 

I have argued that the key to our offense would be our ability to run the ball on our terms. There will be several factors in addition to the RB of course, our OL and play calling, etc. so it's more than just Miller, but our offense starts with the inside run. Last year with Miller we were not able to run on our terms. I never saw him take over a game. Miller was a fantastic change of pace guy. When we would spread teams out and make them think about pass, he picked the right hole and ran hard. He even did pretty well at picking up some key third downs. I would love for him to have broken away for a few long TDs prior to the last game of the year, but he was very effective in that change of pace role. I don't believe that Miller will ever be one of those that takes over games. I don't see enough ability to make people miss, break tackles or make yardage on his own. I'm hoping that either enough of the other factors come through (maybe keyed by a Mathis signing?) or that Ajayi can bring some of what Moreno brought before getting hurt last season. That first game was the one time last year was the one time where I felt we ran the ball on our terms. That was the one time we were able to control the game through our run game. IIRC we were really balanced or even ran a few more times than we passed. I see that as the offense Lazer wants to run. (I don't know that we ever ran more than passed in any other game last season).

 

I think Tannehill is the key to the playoffs. Miller is a good RB. Not great, but he's above average. Good skill set for the zone read offense. He's not the brightest bulb on the tree.

 

Love this post, only thing I would change is rather than Lamar Miller it being our "Running game" being the key. The main reason I say that is our staff has shown no commitment to Lamar Miller being a bellcow or workhorse type back. Personally, I'd like to see Miller at least get close to 17 carries a game because he has improved each year.

Why I say running game is due to the fact Miller seems to be on a pitch count in terms of carries per game. We did have a UDFA in Damien Williams prove valuable last year and just drafted Jay Ajayi who led FBS with 28 TD's. As a unit I am very intrigued by this year's potential. I think all 3 of these back's bring different elements to our offense.

In terms of the playoff's I think our running game is going to be the key to getting us there. We must have the ability to control the clock and dictate the game on offense. What we know right now is our defensive line should cause nightmare's for opposing offenses giving us an opportunity to put more points on the board. In year 2 under Lazor I'd expect our QB to be more comfortable but in truth I am not sitting here pounding the table for him to throw more passes. If anything I'd like to see more balance on offense and allowing Ryan to make more throws in key situations than playing catch up when trailing an opponent.

In 2014, we were 22nd in Rushing Attempts and per game averaged only 24.9 attempts. That isn't good enough IMO. We still were able to average 4.69 yards per carry on those attempts but what this stat should show you is that we didn't commit enough to the run game despite success and we were playing from behind too often.

I'd like to see us near the 27 attempts per game average (GB, NE, BAL, and DEN) all were over that average and still managed to have some really good passing attacks.

Of those 27 carries I'd like Miller to get at least 17 of them then let the rookie and Damien battle out for the rest. But, keep one thing in mind ride the hot hand, if Ajayi is killing it keep him in.

One thing to keep in mind is Miller is a FA this coming off season and if Ajayi proves his worth he may not be in Aqua next year. Personally I hope he has another stellar year and he stays long term.

 

When we played the colts on SNF back in 2009, we held the ball for 45 minutes on offense, with a much better QB in Pennington, and lost. In 2014, Miami made more trips to the redzone than any other team with the pass/run ratio as it was. I'm not saying 13 carries per game is OK. He probably should of had closer to 18-20. And maybe he will w/the added bulk to his body, but I don't know if I'm willing to say he's the key to our season.

 

i don´t buy the we got little depth part besides WR and DL, we have lots of promising bodies at every position on this team, are some of them unproven..no question, but i feel very confident about this team at every position....you might wanna make a case for interior OL but without pads how can we know at this point

 

Miller needs to step it up in the passing game, too many miss opportunities because of his drops.

 

Well we view the level of depth differently. On OL, it's not even clear who our starters at OG are, much less depth. But what about 2nd CB position, or starting MLB? And what about depth at those positions? Mostly untested (even if promising) players. Who do we have at safety if Rashad goes down? No I'm not that confident in our team if a key starter (e.g. the ones I mentioned) goes down.

 

Offensive line will be much more so imo.

 

It was in transition with younger rookies like Vontae and Smith (along with g. Wilson *shudder).

Even still, I think you keep attacking and let the games play out organically . if we can start faster, which was a huge issue last year, maybe we'll have more balance

 

One thing about Miller that I absolutely want and need to see improvement with, is his receiving game.

A). He lead the team in drops
B). Every great offense in the NFL uses their backs as receivers

As a rusher, Miami is going to give him about 215-230 carries. That's been the trend throughout Philbin's time in Miami and even going back to Sparano starting in 2008. That's the duel back system for you... (which I hate, btw). Only Ricky has carried more than 230 times ('09). While Miller can improve as a runner, I don't think he's going to get enough opportunities to be much different in 2015. But as a receiver, Miller def. needs to step up. And if he does, as he says he will, Philbin and Lazor need to incorporate the RB into the passing game more. Whether it's Brees, Manning, Brady, etc... they all use their running backs in the passing game to move the chains and pickup easy completions for easy yards.

Putting a 4.4 runner, especially one as natural as Miller, into open space with the ball in his hands is a big win. Either he's matched up w/a LB and that's a win or he's commanding the attention of safety, taking him out of the play. Add in a seam threat like Cameron and a slot WR like Jarvis, and you're creating huge match up issues in the middle of the field or deep w/Stills taking the top off the defense.

Even Eddie Lacy, who's not a very good receiver caught more passes from Rodgers than Miller from Tannehill. Reggie Bush was woefully misused out of the backfield too during his time Miami (esp. w/Philbin), only getting 35 receptions after previously having two 70+ catch seasons in NO. Philbin and Lazor def. need to find ways to incorporate the RB's in this offense. There's no reason our RB's (Miller and whomever is #2) shouldn't get 90+ combined targets.

 

I think we would be ok if miller missed time, Ajayi was a college bell cow, understands the passing game, and as we all know he's got lots of talent, never know, may never give up the job.

 

As it stands right now we didn't do enough in the offseason to improve the running game.

 

I'd be more inclined to tag Ajayi as the key to this offense. You know what Lamer Miller is: change of pace type who is efficient with a moderate workload. Not going to dictate or dominate the game. Ajayi has game-changing workhorse potential - something Tannehill has never had behind him.

 

He's got to beat out Damien Williams first. He also won't see the field if he doesn't know how to pass protect, something that our current offensive line prospect is thrusting into high priority. I'm excited about Ajayi, I am, but I think a lot of people are being a bit bullish on him. Let's see what he does in the preseason first. I'm excited for the battle between him and Williams.

 

Im a big miller guy and he like TH has gotten better every year. Looking forward to our teams run game this season.

 

I don't think that's an accurate portrayal of Lamar Miller in 2014.

Miami's run blocking in 2014 wasn't very good. According to PFF, Miami's cumulative run blocking grade was -37.5. Only Albert and Samson Satele graded positive. Albert missed half the season... Take it for what it's worth. Despite poor blocking, Lamar Miller managed to still run for 1100 yards and 5.1 yards per carry. Why? He was consistently able to grind out positive yards, even with a minimum of running room. Over half of his carries went 4.0 yards or more. Led the NFL. And he converted 80% of 3 and 1's and 70% of 3rd and 3's. In fact, Miller was more productive than Jamal Charles, both of whom had similar attempts, ypc, catches, receiving yards, etc... And that's the 2014 Lamar Miller. He's closer 225lbs than his 215lbs last season and supposedly hasn't lost his speed or quickness, giving him extra power in his running attack. Don't confuse volume w/production ability (Russell Wilson, anyone?).

You're not giving him his due. Lamar Miller is a very good rusher. He's not a complete back, however. As a receiver, he wasn't very good. Dropped too many passes. As a blocker, he improved from 2013. If Lamar Miller has added power to his running style, and improved as a receiver and blocker, there's no reason he can't or shouldn't be the feature back in 2015. His got vision, instincts, and natural running ability.

 

I feel like Miller is not getting the respect he deserves.. I am always hearing how we need to develop our players and keep home grown talent at home. Like Tannehill, Miller has become better each season...He worked a lot on his pass receiving skills during the off season as he wants to grow into a bigger role and improve his receiving numbers...He has also added additional weight by adding muscle as he wants more carries. I am looking forward as well to Damien Williams second year with us as well as to see how quickly Ajayi learns the playbook and can contribute. Imho, I don't think Miami drafted Ajayi to be a bell cow RB but to bring him in to split the load with Miller and some with Williams so that they all remain fresh for the demanding season ahead. I am looking forward to Miller besting himself this year and being an very important piece of our offensive puzzle. I also hope that Miami is smart and renegotiates his deal and signs him to an extension this year.

 

Gordon is gonna be special, but maybe the combo of Parker and Ajayi will make you feel some joy you'll run to a top of a mountain and scream from your loins, "ME AND VERONICA CORNINGSTONE ARE IN LUV!!!!!

 

P

. Those are the most amazing stats I've read all offseason...I don't know how he achieved that average with that line, either he's deceptively very good or Lazor is a running game genius.

 

I agree..they are a good combination

 

I would absolutely love to see an active, aggressive running game. Love ground and pound football. The big question mark on this for me is the coaching. There were questionable calls last year and even when we had games where the run was working it was dropped like a properly inflated football in the hands of Tom Brady.

I'm hoping Lazor sees it and 'runs' with it this year. Hey, I'm hoping Philbin sees it and runs with it. We already have the capacity for a varied offense which spreads the field. If we can implement a balanced attack that threatens not only passes all over the place but an aggressive run game and Tannehill also takes that leadership step then we'll really have something, if the coaches will let it run.

 

I think Lamar Miller is deceptively good. He's a lot like Russell Wilson. The lack of volume causes some people to assume he's less than. Miller topped 1,000 yards w/only two 100 yard rushing games. That means Miller was nothing short of consistent. That 5.1 YPC represents the type of player he was. He was a grinder, producing positive yards at every turn.

As a runner, he only lacks power. He doesn't break a ton of tackles. If he's gained some muscle w/o losing quickness and speed, as we've heard this off-season, that can only make him more dangerous. The vision, instincts, speed, and running technique are already in place.

Here's some other fun stats from Miller.

5.8 yards per carry vs. base defensive package
5.2 yards per carry vs. Nickle package
1st Half: 101 rushes for 500 yards (5.0 ypc)
2nd Half: 115 rushes for 599 yards (5.2 ypc)

How's that for consistency?

vs. AFC EAST: 85 rushes, 472 yards, 5.6 YPC, 2 TD
vs. Buffalo: 26 rushes, 132 yards, 0 TD
vs. NYJ: 32 rushes, 234 yards, 7.3ypc, 2 TD
Vs. NE: 27 rushes, 106, 3.9 ypc 0 TD

Pretty good vs. stout defenses too..

[video]https://vine.co/v/eeVOKgX2mEZ[/video]
https://vine.co/v/ee9lFaE0x0j

Some cool videos.

 

As it stands, we didn't do enough to improve LDE either...but that position's kinda covered...just like RB with Miller.

 

I think Jay and Damien really push Miller to step up his game even more. I think Jay has a great year for the Dolphins.

 

From a pure viewing and feel standpoint, have you ever seen Lamar Miller take over and dictate a game where the defense knows what's coming and can't stop it? I have not seen him do that, save for maybe a glimpse against Baltimore. See Knowshon week 1 for what a legit lead back should be able to do on a consistent basis, where the offense can lean on him heavily throughout a game.

 

No, I've never seen Lamar Miller take over a game and dominate a team the way Knowshon did in week 1 against NE. I've also never seen him have the opportunity. But what exactly is that suppose to mean? He averaged over 4 yards per carry in 12/16 games (3.79, 2.5, 2.94, 3.39). Half of his carries went for 4 yards or more, most in the NFL. That's fantastic consistency. Especially behind one of the worst group of run blockers in the NFL. Lamar plays in a passing offense, with a two back system. Lamar's productivity was extremely good, limited by volume. There have been plenty of games where Miami stopped rushing the ball in favor of passing, when Lamar was having a lot of success. It was the biggest criticism of Bill Lazor in 2014.

Lamar Miller was pound for pound one of the better RB's of 2014. If he had gotten the 24 carries per game that Knowshon had in week 1 against NE, he would of turned in similar performances. The lack of volume isn't a Lamar Miller problem, it's a Bill Lazor problem.

 

I don't agree. Generally backs that can take over games get stronger in carries 11-20. That wasn't the case with Miller.

Attempts Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st
Attempts 1-Through-10 154 810 5.3 33 4 46
Attempts 11-Through-20 62 289 4.7 97 4 11

http://www.nfl.com/player/lamarmiller/2533034/situationalstats

And that average for carries 11-20 was greatly skewed by the last game of the season (primarily one run). Going into the last game of the season Miller was averaging 2.49 per carry on carries 11-20. I doubt that average had anybody clamoring for Miller to get more 11-20 carries.

So sure, maybe Miller will be able to take over games due to gaining muscle this off-season, but he wasn't capable of that last year. That was a Miller limitation not a Lazer problem.

 

CK debunked this vs. JDang who used the same argument.

Absolutely true... Lamar Miller only had 13 carries per game (average). His sample size from the first 10 carries is legitimately more than 3x larger than that of his the 11-20 sample size in 2014. Even a weak 2.49 yards per carry (prior to the final game) isn't relevant data.

Lamar Miller in 2013
Carries 1-10: 134 attempts, 524 yards, 3.9ypc, long of 49.
Carries 11-20: 41 attempts, 182 yards, 4.4 ypc, long of 17.

So, in 2013, Lamar Miller got stronger with more carries. Suddenly in 2014, he got weaker as the game went along?

Let's consider the fact he converted 82% of 3rd and 1's. Converted 70% of 3rd and 3's. Is that a weak rusher? Every single down, Lamar has a 4.2 ypc average or better.

And breaking Lamar down by quarter.

1st Quarter: 54 attempts, 254 yards, 4.7 ypc
2nd Quarter: 47 attempts, 246 yards, 5.2 ypc
3rd Quarter: 63, attempts, 414 yards, 6.6 ypc (minus the 97 yard run, 5.1 ypc).
4th Quarter: 52 attempts, 185 yards, 3.6 ypc

Lamar doesn't get weaker as the game goes on. The data used to suggest Miller gets weaker from carries 11-20 isn't relevant because the sample size is too small. And it can easily be explained away with a number of scenario's, including the fact that runs 11-20 likely take place in the 4th quarter, when you're trying to kill the clock and the defense knows you're going to run (which would explain the 4th quarter ypc drop off too). It's the exact argument we used for Joe Flacco. His 2012 sample size is too small to take it seriously as evidence that he's some kind of GOAT playoff performer. This is no different.

 

Miller never reached 20 carries. What makes us think the position is covered, if the coaches won't run him past 20.

Moreno carried it 24 times in his first game here.

 

That doesn't debunk it. His carries from 11-20 where far less efficient. That is a fact. You may decide to ascribe signifigance to an explanation that excuses it, but the fact remains. IMO if you have a player whom you admit doesn't break many tackles then he's not likely to be the guy that's effective at controlling a game or running late when the opponent knows you're going to run. That's basically what you want from your RB late in the game and he hasn't shown the ability to do that thus far.

 

Miller carried more weight in 2014 than 2013. I never even put forth an argument. I said it was something I'm going to keep an eye on this year. In 2013 he played at 212. In 2014 he added weight to play at 218/220. This year he's adding another 5-7 lbs. He doesn't have a big frame. Did the extra weight hurt him? We'll see since he'll be playing at an even higher weight this year. 1987 Offensive Rookie of the year (with the Dolphins) Troy Stradford doesn't think it's a good idea.

http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachp...p-or-hurt-dolphins-running-back-lamar-miller/

Miller is a speed back. Not a power back. Did he gain any power this year? Was he breaking tackles this year? Or is he better off with more speed. That is the question.

He's adding 13 lbs to his 212 frame. Do I really need to show a video of Dion Jordan running back that blocked field goal against Detroit to show what extra weight does?

http://www.nflrush.com/story/dolphins-block-fg-dion-jordan-runs-it-back-58-yards

But it's good to hear he's already back down to 221 or so. Right around where he played last year. I'd like to see him at 212 where he started. He's not a power back. And so far the coaches have no confidence in him being a workhorse.

Can someone answer this:

Miller had the 2nd best ypc in the whole league.
Daniel Thomas was next. 3.8.

It's obvious Miller should have gotten almost every carry the other RBs not named Moreno, got.

Yet he never hit 20, and barely went above 15 carries per game. We know the staff isn't opposed to giving a rusher that many, as they gave Moreno 24 in his first game.

They went run heavy in that first game and we beat the patriots when Tanny had a pretty bad game. All of a sudden we're a pass first team? This staff, does not see Miller as the all around, #1 running back. Why?

 

Wrong sort of back to build on offense around.

Like him a ton, pack 8 men in the box and he is not going to create much

 

I love Miller, I do. I drafted him in all of my keeper leagues, keeping him in another league for 3 years. After this year, I traded him for Mike Evans because they would not give him the carries, even after Moreno went down. I want them to use him more. They didn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ajayi gets more carries per game by the end of the season if he's any good. I won't rule it out, but I'd be surprised if Miller is given a heavy workload.