I'm warming to Willie Cauley-Stein for the Heat at 10. The guy is just a monster defensively, which is the hallmark of the Heat culture, and both eh and Whiteside are athletic enough that you could could go with a "super-big" lineup for small stretches with Bosh at the 3, depending on the match up. He's also perfect Whiteside insurance in case of a flake out or if he just chooses to go elsewhere..
At worst, Johnson is going to a plus defender. He will always have a place in the league. If he can even get to Luol Deng levels of offensive proficiency, he will be a good pro for a long time. Very safe pick. Johnson and Cauley-Stein are the two safest picks at 10. Both of them will be plus defenders right away. You can count on that at least.
I basically agree with every word of your eval, but I probably take Johnson over Oubre. I agree that Oubre may have the highest ceiling, but I also think Johnson will be at least a good shooter. I could see Oubre being almost a non-factor offensively for a season or two. I think I have Oubre rated higher than most just based on the mock drafts I see. After the early guys with little chance to make it to our pick (Hezonja, Winslow), I have Johnson, Booker and Oubre as my top choices. I want a wing who can defend and hit the outside shot (basically a certain amount of size, athleticism and skill). I tend to like guys who can finish and have a high basketball IQ as well as a strong work ethic. Looking at my choices, I can list strengths and weaknesses for all of my main criteria. They all have some warts, at least relative to the other choices. I have no idea which one will be the best player five years from now. I have Dekker and Kaminsky behind those other five in terms of preference.
My personal preference is a miracle trade to 3-4 range for Russell, unlikely, a more reasonable trade up to 7-8 range for Winslow if he falls, Johnson to secure him, otherwise at 10 I like Johnson, Cauley-Stein, Booker, in that order. One of them should be there, hopefully.
I hadn't really thought much about Willie Cauley-Stein b/c he's not the position I was focusing on as a need and b/c early on he seemed out of reach regardless. But I could see a scenario where he slips to 10. He's the best defender in the draft. He'd be an elite wing defender and pick and roll defender right out of the box. He'd also be great at running the floor. You could picture lobs all day from Dragon. He's a very quick jumper. I could see him being annoying for opponents getting those offensive rebounds (kind of like a Tristan Thompson). On the downside, he's almost no threat offensively. I could see him never being more than a Udonis Haslem on offense. He could hit that short 10' to 15' foot jumper, but not consistently yet. Has no post game and is a poor passer. He also needs to get a lot stronger. That's probably why he's poor in the post (offensively and defensively) and why he struggles to finish with any contact.
Heat showing interest in Ellis to me seems like theyre sending a message to Wade that doesnt work in his favor.
He didn't have a great season up until the Tournament, but he is probably the most natural shooter in the Draft with Steph Curry range Obviously, he's not anywhere near the overall player Steph is, but I can certainly see him having a Jon Paxson/Steve Kerr like role and career.
Shot 39.5 as a sophomore, 30 this year. If you look at the form, it's pure. One of his big problems this year based on everything I've read is that he didn't take as many shots, started turning down open looks, may have had a bit of a confidence problem.
William Cauley-Stein is basically the basketball equivalent of a planet theory prospect. So agile and fast at that size, should be illegal. But I don't know if he's right for the Heat. Grabbing him as Whiteside insurance could be a self-fulfilling prophecy as Hassan strikes me as the type that would be none too happy with the Heat doing that. Young Whiteside needs to feel the love from the Heat, I think that's what will get the best out of him. I can see why Section126 has Devin Booker at the very top of the list. He may not be the best player on that list but he's the best fit for what the Heat need. And it's not like the Heat won't need that by the time Booker comes around and stops being so damn young. Every team needs catch and shoot guys that drive a stake through your heart because you left them open, and this guy shows signs of being a truly incredible shooter. He gives you some nice bonuses too in the way he sees the floor and his super high release point from mid range. And he's what, 18 years old? Eesh. For me this would be a two-horse race at 10...either Stanley Johnson or Devin Booker. Chances are strong one of those two will be gone so you take whichever is left.
Yes...but he played in the Sun Belt Conf., where there is a lot of fast paced play, and he took a TON of bad shots. That won;t happen in the NBA.
The Miami Heat as presently constituted can have some GREAT lineups with Wade playing SF (Wade can dominate as a smaller guy playing at that pos.). For the Heat to get to those lineups, they need a shooter to play the #2.
My concern is that they'll both be gone. The mocks I've seen lately have Johnson going to Detroit and Booker going to Carolina just ahead of the Heat pick. While I like Cauley-Stein and Oubre, I see them as a step down from the other two. And I see Johnson and Booker as a step down from Winslow and Hezonja. If I believed that I were likely to miss out on Johnson and Booker, I would more seriously consider trying to trade up to 6 or 7. I don't know the cost so it might not be feasible, but I'd investigate it with increased urgency given the above scenario. I like Winslow enough in particular that I'd be looking at it anyways. I think he may be the best possible pick in the draft for Miami.
Winslow has more DWade in him than people are realizing, imo. The footwork around the paint, the upper body strength and leaping ability to bully smaller guys and attack bigger guys, creativity at the rim, the weaving athleticism in transition and on cuts, euro-steps, the fantastic defensive instincts, passing ability out of the lane, high IQ. Kid is fearless and works his butt off too.
I see him as a guy who does almost everything well. He's stronger than the small guys and quicker than the bigs. Great basket ball IQ. He basically does everything right on offense and defense. Seems to always make the basic play and rarely makes the dumb play. High motor. Reportedly a gym rat. Not a great leaper, but his strength makes him a good finisher. Good offensively close to the rim. At least good enough as a spot up shooter from 3-point range right now. If his mechanics become a little more consistent might be an even better long range shooter. He's not a creative offensive player. If he developed a better jumper off the pick and roll it would really open up his offensive game. Good post defender and on ball defender. Really his only weaknesses are that he's not a great leaper or offensive creator and his jump shot is inconsistent. He's my favorite b/c I see improvement of that jumper as fairly likely for a gym rat. That will leave him with very few weaknesses. Arguably they wouldn't even be weaknesses. They'd just be a couple of things he didn't excel at.
I think there is more to Oubre. He has a sweet shooting stroke and at the very least should in time become a pretty good spot up shooter who can defend. He spent the early part of the season in Bill Self's doghouse because he did not want to defend, but once he dedicated himself to that, he became their best defender. He also has very good athleticism, and as you mentioned, a great wingspan. With him, you're gambling on upside, though.
He's an absolute elite defender, but at this point there is not much else. He hasn't even been a great rebounder thus far, and his offensive game is non-existant. There are reports that his jumper has looked good in workouts, but is that enough proof?
For me, 3-8 are very close, but I'd prefer a wing to a big. I REALLY like Kaminsky and think the fact that he's white and a senior is causing people to overlook him. He does a lot of things very well. The reason I have Lyles last of the three bigs is because he doesn't do anything that really stands out right now. Part of that is he was overshadowed on a very talented team and the upside is there, but I think Turner's upside is bigger because he's huge, has great range, and can also block shots. That's a pretty rare package of skills.
You grab him and I think you know that he's at least the new Birdman. But he could be more because of that ability to defend virtually any position.
Listen - Kevin Love might leave - he might even leave for the Celtics - but this pitch is still the worst pitch ever.
Right, but is that what you want to spend this pick on when you can get a wing with potential to be an above average to solid starter for you? I wouldn't hate the pick, because he'll probably be a special defender, but I would rather take a chance with this opportunity to get a young impact player that can help you on both ends.
I think Lebron waits another season for the tv money. Kevin Love will look for a max contract for long term security. My guess is he stays with the Cavs especially aince they have the extra year to offer and he isnt going to take risks.
My list on who i want to draft in order if we stay at 10... Devin Booker Sam Dekker Cauley Stein kaminsky
Wade just followed a guy on Twitter who photoshopped him in a Cavs uniform. This dude is ridiculous sometimes.
And the guy who made the photo shop was a bandwagon Heat fan the last 4 years. (Other people are playing Twitter detective, not me)
i wonder what he thinks he gains from these little mind games. Did he forget who Pat Riley is lol you piss him off and he sends you away, it doesnt matter if your name is Shaquille ONeal, riley knows when to cut ties. If thats his way to try to get paid then he needs a new strategy, better yet just stay quiet and let Henry Thomas handle everything.
Using the Cavs seems to be really transparent, too. If he were pushing Lakers or Mavs or something, maybe. But he's not signing for $3.4 million as a 4th option. No chance.
While I still think something gets worked out at the 11th hour, I'm prepared for him to leave at this point. Don't want it to, but I see both sides of whatever this problem is.
i never thought of Wade as such an immature "ME ME ME" guy until the past two weeks. This guy sure has changed from the quiet humble company man we drafted. If he behaved professionally I dont think there would be any question whether Wade returns or not. Could have handled this through his agent only and im sure the deal would have been worked out. Instead he's going social media acting like a diva, creating a divide from fans between himself, Riley, and the Heat.If he leaves his disciples will turn on Riley and the franchise. Great strategy Wade. Really classy. Dont think you can disrespect Riley and the Heat the way you are and still get what you want though. Maybe if you were 28 turning 29, not 33 turning 34. Youre about five years late to act like a douche.
Woj: Charlotte shopping Cody Zeller hard for a wing before the draft. If they make a trade, they will pick Kaminsky. This would be a very good thing for us
