But, if we're talking about Tannehill's ability to hit deep passes, then you wouldn't simply look at last season. Unless it's your belief that Tannehill has lost some ability to hit the deep ball that he had in his first season or two.
Right, but we are specifically talking about throwing deep. Is it your contention that he has regressed there?
What he did under Sherman's system should be looked at but not much weight should be placed on it like say, if Bruce Arians came in and left, comparing numbers is almost academic. We've got all new receivers next year too. Look, Landry isn't going deep, ever, unless a DB accidentally fell asleep. Like literally fell asleep. Lazor has them running different routes than Sherman. Tanny is pretty good at certain deep routes and not others.
This. I listened to the whole interview and Lazor only spoke one sentence that even slightly touched on the deep ball where he said something about everybody needing to work together. That's it. If anybody took this as Lazor criticizing RT's deep ball or pointing out some obvious flaw then they reading/listening comprehension issues. The only reasonable interpretation is that the deep ball is something Lazor wants to improve (along with everything else) and that it's on everyone involved in the offense to do so. Personally, improving the deep ball is down the list in terms of priorities for me. I want to see continued improvement in his pocket awareness and decision-making in general above everything else. Then I'd like to see his pre-snap reads continue to improve. I'd like to see RT take advantage of run lanes a bit more often. After all of that, I'll worry about the deep pass. If he improved those top two or three things alone then he makes us a perennial contender and is an unquestioned franchise QB that is worth far more than his contract. And I think the deep ball will improve naturally if the protection and run game (and play-action off of it) improve as long as they put in the work to get the timing down (which by all reports they're doing that).
but you can say that about any QB in any system. as systems progress and players progress usually your OC's will begin to taylor the plays to the players strengths. just using last year is just using a particular point in time to make a generalization about Tanny and his abilities.
Spot on. I think the fact that Lazor said, "We have to figure this out together," is a clear indication that everyone has to be involved but also that there is an issue there and that Tannehill does need improvement. That is typically coach speak for "there is a problem, the player is part of it, but we do have to fix this as a unit/team." I think RT's problems are 1) fundamentals (he doesn't give the ball the proper arc because he needs to have better form - particularly angling his shoulders - as Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, & Big Ben do); and 2) mental (having confidence to throw the football at the proper time - not waiting for a player to get open). I think if he really works hard on the fundamentals and just learns to trust those fundamentals - he'll be very good, even great as a QB.
There is some truth in past years, however, the problem with that analysis, imo, rests in the "20 yard" throw as categorizing "Deep passes." Most of Wallace's throws were 30+ (that would be the better comparison). I don't know that there are 25+ throws out there but I'd put that there before 20 yards. A 20 yard pass (they measure from the LOS) is often not a bomb (which is what we're really talking about). So the 20 yard mark is not really what most have in mind when they critique Ryan on his "bombs." (A bullet seem or deep out that travels 20+ yards is not where people see the issue). if we look at last year, Tannehill had problems with deep passes to everyone. I think he lost some confidence. It got into his head a bit. The most recent year is the indicator of the challenge. And, once that happens, it can be a challenge to overcome. Old school sports fans will remember Steve Sax - a very good 2B - went through a long stretch where he could not throw the ball to first at all. It just got into his head. Here was a brief stat look at last year that I posted on Club. Just a smattering of QBs (don't have time for all). First passing percentage of passes 21+ yards overall (with 21-30 range in parentheses). Second, passing % 31+ yards. For 2014 Tannehill: 21% 21+ (27% 21-30 range). 6% 31+ yards. Rodgers: 49% 21+ (50% 21-30). 50% 31+. Brees: 42% 21+. (44% 21-30). 40% over 31+. Luck: 39% 21+. (43% 21-30). 27% 31+. Big Ben: 38% 21+. (47% 21-30). 29% 31+. Having said that, I do have confidence he'll do better b/c of the nature of the receiving corps and because I think Lazor and the staff and RT himself will work hard on improving. So, this is not an overall criticism of RT - just one part that needs improvement for the team (and he's involved). But, if he throws it better at 30+ I think he can get into the 100's in passer rating (which is really where he needs to be in the pass happy league where things are geared favorably toward the QB).
I also think that it's important to look at the actual numbers of deep balls. Like, Rodgers hit 50%...but how many is that? 9? 11? 15? I say that, because I feel like people think that other QBs, like Rodgers, are connecting on two or three bombs a game. I agree, it is something that needs improving. I've said it so many times, yes, Tannehill is part of that, but, so are other pieces. Where do you find the numbers broken down like that?
I thought that in 2014 we overly skewed our deep pass attempts to Wallace and that caused the overall numbers on deep passes to decrease. The previous seasons RT was just about average to everyone not named Wallace and below average to Wallace. Then in 2014, more of the deep attempts went to Wallace and not surprisingly the deep pass numbers were below average. I expect that with Wallace gone even with no other improvements that the deep numbers this year would probably be closer to average again. Obviously there may have been improvements (Tannehill's increased experience, better pass pro?, more consistent receivers?, more time working with all WRs, second year in the system, etc.), but how much to weigh each factor would be complete speculation. IMO the biggest thing is to change the narrative. For example, Flacco had an incredible year throwing deep a few seasons back. People started calling him the best deep ball passer in the league. Now without checking the stats, my impression was that he has been pretty bad on deep throws since. But once people get a narrative in their head perceptions are hard to change.
Actually, no. He had a bad season two years back, after the Super Bowl season, but then his whole season was bad. Not just the deep pass. 73 rating. Whole league was laughing at that contract. Last year, 2014 he had a pretty good deep pass, 21 of 56 on passes over 20 yards with 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and seven drops. It wasn't earth shattering but decent. That is a lot of drops last year.
Phinsider put up this: http://www.thephinsider.com/2015/1/...ike-wallaces-career-a-statistical-examination Personally, I'm happy Wallace is gone. He began his tenure as a Fin by pouting and sulking after his first game (a win against the Colts) and ended his last one the same way - pouting, sulking, and being benched. Good riddance. Looking forward to seeing how we look with the new receivers. I don't see the deep bomb as a priority. I want chemistry and variety and everyone working together to have a better offense than last season. Lazor is no longer implementing a new offense, but refining it and he and Tannehill are working in tandem to get the new players up to speed and integrated...
Ironically, that 37% (based on your 21 of 56 numbers) was what about (36%) I recall seeing at some point for Flacco back in his great deep passing year. He was throwing deep a ton and missing a ton, but all people remember were the highlights and then obviously the SB at the end. I don't think either number should prompt people to call a player the best deep passer in the league, but the narrative stuck regardless. That's my larger point. People get things stuck in their head and it's taken as fact regardless of it's validity.
I like Wallace but he really needs to be in an offense that stretches the field vertically. Wallace isn't the ideal person for an air coryell (he's speedy right, but doesn't track that well nor win any jump balls ...) but doesn't Norv put his receivers in motion a bit? Arians moved Wallace around a lot, preventing a jam and also letting him get lost a little back there.
I never agreed with him being the best deep passer in the league, but he's decent. Rodgers I believe is more consistent even though he throws among the fewest deep passes. He just hits them when he does.
