LA CANFORA: Dolphins Most Ready to Challenge Patriots

La Canfora being positive towards the Fins makes me really suspicious.

 

This dog is highly skeptical of Mr. LaCrapfora

 

Of all the AFC teams, Buffalo is the most complete. Even more so than New England. Thankfully, they have Matt Cassel at QB. Which is where we have the advantage over Buffalo and New York. However, we're not the most ready to compete.

1). Our schedule looks very tough. The AFC east alone is going to be a dog fight.
2). Our offensive line sucks. Still. All these years later. Albert is a question mark and unless Miami drafts La'el Collins, I don't have high hopes.
3). No safety... When Delmas went down, our passing defense went with it. We need to get a FS of some sort. Especially if Jamar Taylor is starting...
4). Worst coach in the AFC. By far. It's not even debatable.

Like I said, Tannehill is our sole advantage over Buffalo and New York. And if we don't start protecting him, it's irrelevant anyway. Buffalo and NY are much better teams outside of the QB position.

 

We hear this every year.

 

Yes. I hope Miami does too. Because another 40+ sack season is going to translate to 8-8 or worse. What did I say that confuses you about my position?

 

Our schedule actually is kind of favorable. We play a lot of our tough games at home and are away for the easier ones. For example, Houston and Indy come to Miami, and we travel to jax and Tennessee. Couldn't ask for better there.

In fact, with the eagles ridiculous moves, IMO, the toughest road game we play outside of NE is buffalo. I think we can take Washington, Philly, Tennessee, jax, and San Diego.

Edit: now that I'm really looking at this, every difficult game is in Miami. Dallas, Baltimore, Indy, and Houston are all home games. Hopefully the stadium renovations give us a new home field advantage. Not saying it changes everything, but ideally you want the tougher games to be home games

 

Bowles did coach a few games here as interim back in 2011 so he does have some experience. I do see us as being better than NY and Buffalo but not by a very big margin. They are installing new systems so who knows how effective they are right away.

 

Same conversation every year. Hot air until proven otherwise on the field.

 

I will the "Must Protect Tannehill" team. It's great that we have signed Suh, I love Kenny Stills, Jordan Cameron is an elite Tight End when he is healthy, Brice Mccain adds depth to the secondary...

Still though....We have question marks on the offensive line as of right now. Branden Alberts knee was damn near completely shredded, we don't know when he'll be ready...Guy is healing and that is great, but he is officially now known as injury prone. I think we really need to sign Dan Connelly from New England. That would partially set my mind at ease. Stefan Wiesnewski (spelling) would be a nice addition as well. The O-Line still needs to be addressed.

 

2. our O-line is pretty good actually....specifically at the bookends and center. Ya injuries suck....When did FA start again?????..... need to play out the rest of FA and the draft.

3. When Delmas went down, our passing defense went with it. > be that as it may, we didn't have the Suhnami... Huge difference + still same as above.

4. It is debatable actually. That's your bias as a fan. Let's compare head coaching RECORDS of Rex (50-52) and TB (2-1)...... Can't say anything about TB based off interim games or his time as a coordinator. he needs to be a HC for a season first before you crown him anything.... and Rex is a PERENNIAL .500 coach over a career double the length of Philbins... but just so happens to be a "rah-rah" fan/player favorite with good enough defenses to keep him employed ..."Oh but he has a 4-2 post season record!" Congrats I guess?........... I don't even think Philbin is at all good as a coach, but still. What a stretch.

 

If you have one of the top defenses in the top defenses in the league, having a great QB isn't nearly as important.

I think the Bills defense at this time is better than any of the defenses Ryan had with the Jets and he coached the Jets to the AFC championship game twice with Mark Sanchez as his starting QB.

Cassel may not be much at the QB position, but he is certainly better than Sanchez.

I really can't stand any of the other teams in the AFC East, but I can look at the rosters of all four teams and clearly see that the Patriots and Bills have more talent and better head coaches than the Dolphins at this time.

The Jets clearly ungraded their secondary but with a first year head coach and a lot of needs on offense, including at the QB position, I don't see them being a serious contender in the AFC East next year.

 

I'm responding to the article. Which was written today. I don't care when FA started or when the draft is. The article is about 3/19/2015. As of now, everything I said stands true but is subject to change.

Suh is a great addition. He should absolutely improve our run defense and pass defense. He's an important variable in the equation, not the solution. Jamar Taylor is penciled in as CB#2 right now. Scary. And Delmas absence was very much felt during the season. Geno Smith dropped 350 yards on us ffs. Right now, we have no FS. No permanent solutions on the horizon. That matters. We need to bring Delmas back, at the very least IMO. Given his injuries, it's a stop gap. But it's the only move that makes sense.

Did Brandon Albert not tear his ACL? Brandon Albert admits he doesn't know if he'll be ready, last I heard. So the whole "bookend" thing is, as of now, hope. We have 1 center and 1 RT. Hopefully Turner steps up as a G and Albert comes back healthy. Neither is a given. And we don't yet have a LG. Our offensive line is not settled as of today. La'el Collins would go a long way to improving the LG/LT problem was my point.

And I'm so sick and tired of hearing about Rex Ryan's record... Dude took dog **** Mark Sanzhez to TWO AFC championship games. Beat Brady's Pats and Manning's Colts to do it too. After Tannenbaum put the NYJ in cap hell, the team was dismantled, and then he went 8-8 with Geno Smith and a defensive roster that was a shell of it's former self. Rex Ryan has done more with less than any coach in the NFL. FACT. As for Bowles... I'd take him over Joe Philbin with no hesitation.

 

"everything I said stands true" ...... in your opinion*


and lol...Rex and Sanchez didn't take anyone anywhere. The top defenses in the league did. Lmfao. That is acting like the bucs won a SB SOLELY because of Gruden. LOL. You're tired of hearing his record ... that's too bad because he is an over glorified sub .500 coach over... what is it, 6 years now? Something with nothing? NOTHING?????? Please..... Funny how jw just said right above you "If you have one of the top defenses in the league, having a great QB isn't nearly as important." Which he did.... both seasons he made a run in.... Including the first season he got there when it was rank #1.....to never be repeated again....or even be close.... Jets defensive statistics are pretty much a straight downward trend from his first year to his last. almost to a 'T'! Having rank #1 rushing in the league helped too, btw. LOL.

So let's see... He had PRETTY MUCH the #1 defense and the #1 rushing offense in football at the same time and what happened? Horseshoes and hand grenades. You can make any excuse you want for him but He's accomplished nothing. Sub 500 bro. 46-50. 6 years. With NOTHING to show for it.
it's actually kind of gross reading this here. I imagine this is how Jets fans sounded, clinging to any relevance they believe they may have..... "almost" doing something is not doing something. I don't think he is a TERRIBLE coach, but he is put on way way way too high of a pedestal here, by some.

 

While Suh is certainly an upgrade on the defensive line, he is only one player and the Dolphins have many needs to fill on the defense before they will be a top defensive team again.

Hopefully Wake and Grimes can continue to play at a high level, but they are both getting older and both of them did not play well over the latter part of last season. Perhaps age is starting to catch up with them and we have already seen the best we will ever see from them on the field.

Vernon seems to play well early in the season and then disappears over the second half of the season. Hopefully the addition of Suh and another year in the league will better prepare him to play at a high level over the entire season.

I really don't know how anyone can be confident in the secondary at this time. You basically have Grimes, Jones, and a lot of question marks at this time. Perhaps some of the young players will step up and be solid players in the secondary but we just don't know if any of them are talented enough to step up and wis a starting spot at this time.

The LB position is probably the biggest area of need on the entire team. You have one solid starter in Jenkins and a sometime starter in Misi, who has trouble staying in the games because of injuries. Other than those two, it is anyone's guess if any of the other LB's on the roster can be effective as a starter in the NFL.

I know they still have money to spend in free agency and the draft is the end of next month, but with all the needs they have on defense and their need to find more quality players for the OL, plus another WR, I just don't see them being able to find enough quality players this year to make a run at the playoffs.

As great as Shu might be. The fact is he played for a team with a better QB than Tannehill and the best WR in the NFL and on a defense that was better than the Dolphins. Yet over five years in Detroit, his teams were sub 500 over that time period and even though they made the playoffs twice over those five years, they were 0-2 with Suh on their team.

Suh is a great start to building a better defense, but a start is all it is at this time.

 

Is that Stuart Scott's dog?

 

I agree with most of this. However, @bold I think Wake and Vernon are going to have relatively fine year(s) with Suh. TBH That would be the absolute *least* of my concerns

Detroit and Miami are 2 different teams. Yes. Apples and Oranges. Detroit didn't have Wake or Vernon(when he feels like playing). A case could be made either way, TBH. it's TBD with tremendous upside.

I'm also concerned with what they are going to do with LB OL and WR/FS, but I was emphasizing I feel it's too early to be "worried" about the positions. The team has a good amount of talent and there are still moves to be made.

 

So you are basically telling me that the Dolphins defense was as good as the Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, and Broncos.

I can buy them being about equal with the Broncos because I never thought the Broncos defense was that good. Once Manning started playing like an old man, the Broncos just weren't that good overall.

As far as the other teams I listed. I would take their defenses over the Dolphins last year and not even think twice about it. The Dolphins played effectively on defense early in the season, but they were one of the worst defenses in the entire league over the last month of the season.

I do agree that offense is more important in the game today than it was in the past. Yet it is obvious by the fact the highest paid player on the entire team is on the defense, the FO of the Dolphins fully understand how important defense remains if you want to have success in the NFL.

Especially when you don't have an elite QB running your offense. Tannehill has improved, but he is far from being an elite QB and that makes it even more imperative the Dolphins have a solid defensive core.

 

We're not winning the division, can only hope for a wildcard spot.

 

If that is the case and I'll accept your word for it. That must mean that the problem is Tannehill. Because The Seahawks OL was no better than the Dolphins and the Dolphins certainly had a better receiving corp than the Seahawks.

The Seahawks have the better RB and obviously a much better starting QB who has led them to the playoffs three years in a row and to two straight SB's.

I thought Tannehill was the problem but you have basically verified it with your statement that the Dolphins defense was as effective as the top four seeds in the playoffs and it is the Dolphins offense which is the problem.

Perhaps Tannebaum can trade Tannehill to the Bucs and we can draft Winston. That would be a definite upgrade at the QB position, IMO.

 

I'll take it

 

I see another 8-8 season, with another third place finish in the division.

That will get rid of Philbin and give the Dolphins one more year to improve through the draft and with hopefully a big upgrade at the head coaching position.

I see 2016 as the year this franchise finally turns the corner and possibly makes the playoffs.

 

You keep using this DVOA stat, but I've seen no description of that stat that suggests it isn't based on arbitrary weights put on various plays in various situations. In other words, it doesn't even look like it's an objective stat (and I know you care about "objective stats").

For reference, here's the link that explains it, by the people using it:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa

The problem is how they assign what they call "success points" for various plays. Let me just quote a snippet:

"A successful play is worth one point; an unsuccessful play, zero points with fractional points in between (e.g., eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.54 “success points”). Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards (assuming those yards result in a first down), four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. Losing three or more yards is -1 point. Interceptions occurring on fourth down during the last two minutes of a game incur no penalty whatsoever, but all others average -6 points"

etc..

They never explain where they got those values (other sites don't either). All indications are this isn't an objective stat in the first place; it seems like these "success points" were chosen so they got the result they wanted (it looked good enough to them). Can you prove otherwise?

 

The end result is great and all, but the journey matters. They were 2nd in DVOA in the first half of the year - why are you conveniently ignoring the fact that they were literally one of the worst defenses in the entire league during the 2nd half?

The defense that wasn't materially worse than the average performance of those aforementioned playoff teams hadn't been seen since early November.


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That's the same link I gave you. I read all that, and none of it seems like it wasn't just pulled from thin air. The portion you quoted doesn't help either, unless you can explain to me how you get "45 percent of needed yards" = successful play on 1st down etc.. You tend not to get clean numbers like 45, 60, etc.. when doing optimization.

More importantly, the guys on that site claim they expanded the stuff from the book "The Hidden Game of Football" with their own idea of "success points", which they claim they arrived at with "a lot of mathematics and some trial and error".

Yeah, that's explaining nothing whatsoever.

See if you can find ANY site that shows how they got their "success points" in a non-arbitrary way.

 

You were the person who said there was no major difference between the Dolphins defense and the top four playoff teams, not me.

You also stated that it was the offense which was the reason the Dolphins didn't succeed last year.

I merely pointed out that the Seahawks offensive line was no better than the Dolphins OL. As far as remodeling the WR corp is concerned. Just because they traded their best WR and cut two of their veteran WR's doesn't mean the Dolphins WR's were better as a group than the Seahawks WR's. Because the Seahawks had a terrible WR corp last year.

Unlike you, I think there is a major distinction between Wilson and Tannehill. Tannehill is a QB who was surrounded with better talent than Wilson on offense last year. The Dolphins went 8-8 and finished 3rd in a very mediocre division.

Wilson led his team to their second consecutive SB appearance with inferior offensive talent.

I thought Wilson was a better QB than Tannehill coming out of college and he has clearly proved to be the better QB in the NFL.

You can't use stats to show the Dolphins defense as equal to the other defenses in the league and then decide to change your view merely because I point out that Tannehill must be the problem.

When I was in college, my professor always said you can make stats prove anything you want them too. It appears you can't quite decide exactly what you want your stats to prove.

 

Why is 4.5 the magical number? Why not 5.3?

 

IMO the best way to grade a defense is to look at how many points they gave up.

The Dolphins finished 20th.

Pats 8th

Bills 4th

Jets 24th

Packers 13th

Detroit 3rd

Seattle 1st

Denver 16th

Colts 19th

I could go on, but I think I've shown my point.

In this league defense wins championships. Throw in a good offense and you'll have, of course, a better chance.

QB's, RB's, WR's etc, individually, mean nothing without their peers. Coaching, IMO, is worth more than anything else. I hope Philbin can put it all together this next season.

 

Yeah, absent any more sophisticated approach that's principled (i.e. not the result of arbitrarily assigning weights, like DVOA so far seems to be), total points given up is probably the best simple stat to rank defenses by.

 

No. You said the defense wasn't materially worse than the average of the top four playoff seeds. I'm simply pointing out that your claim hasn't been true since the beginning of November.

Hell, this comes from your own 'is Suh worth it' thread:

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