The Dolphins vs. the Top Four Playoff Seeds: A Comparison

The OL was ranked 21st in 2013, but we had MUCH better Guards and Center. Just no Tackles.

Losing Pouncey at Center just before the season, then later Albert at LT were the real killers to the 2014 OL. At that point every OL position was shuffled and was sub-par from there on out. You also saw Tannehill running less as the reads weren't there.

 

He does have an exceptional success rate. Matter of fact, he's rated top 5 in DVOA, DYAR, and #3 in WPA. In any event, the line was rated much better at run blocking than pass blocking by sources that aren't pff, and other sites are tracking that Miami lead the league in combined sacks hits and pressures as well. It'd seem that the metrics are consistent.

 

Man if he gets that kind of attention on the read option than our passing game must be lethal.

 

Miller does a good job catching the ball. I remember him not catching some thrown at his feet.

He does run much better out of the spread offense, but that has a lot to do with the line.

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa hold on!!

PFF said Miami had the 31st ranked run blocking in the league, all you need to know. Lamar Miller is a god

 

Well then... since we know PFF rankings and stats can't be right, let's look at Pro Football Reference.

PFR: Dolphins Offense ranked 11th in 2014, up from 26th in 2013.

2014: Scored 388 points (24.2/g), 11th of 32 in the NFL.
2013: Scored 317 points (19.8/g), 26th of 32 in the NFL.

Miller, thanks to the 178 yard day against the jets to end the season, leaped up to #10 in rushing yards on the season. Not bad for a guy who averages 45 yards and change a game.

As a team, we rushed for 432 more yards in 2014 than in 2013.

 

I'm confused on what you're trying to say.

 

I propose that's because pressures, sacks, hits and hurries aren't even included in the formulas for any of the above measures.

 

Are we SERIOUSLY arguing the pressures, sacks, and hurries don't negatively affect QB play? Are we arguing that when a QB can't step into a throw because he has defenders in his face, that it doesn't affect the throw? Are we arguing that QBs that are constantly getting hit don't get nervous in the pocket, and throw earlier, because they are trying to avoid pressure that is coming? If we are trying to use stats to say that this stuff doesn't occur, then there is something wrong with our stats.

 

And there is....

This isn't baseball so stats don't always paint the correct picture, in watching games this year I have a hard time believing there was no significant difference in time to throw between Brady and Ryan. Just like I don't believe Ryan throws a good deep ball to anyone other than Wallace because of some 20yards in the air barometer.

Figures lie and liars figure.

 

Well, Tannehill seemed to throw a bunch of good deep balls (not your version, probably) to guys not named Wallace, especially in the last 3-4 games.

 

I liked the fact we finally attempted those throws, while I wouldn't say its a bunch it certainly was better than any other few game stretch in his career. Hell, I even liked the throws to Wallace save the 50 yard completion that should've been an 80yd TD. Hopefully it carries over to next year, because I think most would trade a great completion percentage with a 5 YPC attached to it for an early 60's with some chunk yards.

 

I'll put it this way...I bet if you, for instance, put Tannehill on a field with Mike Wallace and the offensive line, with no defense, that Tannehill would have no issue chucking deep balls into Wallace in stride. So, the question becomes, what changes when there is a defense on the field?

 

Russell Wilson has already broken some passing records, just imagine what he could do behind the best o-line in the league. I mean, there is a good chance he could the best passer in the history of the sport if he was only under Peyton Manning type pressure.

 

I think the only easy thing to conclude is that the more mobile/agile the QB, the less protection is necessary. Now, when I say " mobile" I'm not talking about Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick, I'm talking about being able to move around within the pocket, evade pressure and escape when necessary. That's the basic skill that all good QBs have to some degree.

Wilson, Luck, Romo and Rodgers all put up great stats and look fantastic because they are able to move away from the pressure exceptionally well. None of those O-lines are as good as fans would think they are in terms of pass-protection. The mobility of each of those 3 QBs is making the protection look better than it is.

In the case of Brady and Manning, you have 2 QBs who aren't very mobile at all. Any amount of pressure will degrade the success of those QBs quite noticeably. For that reason, they have been supported by some of the better pass-blocking O-lines in recent memory.


The problem Miami seems to have is that they have "average" pass protection (a la Seattle, Indy, Dallas and Green Bay) while at the same time have a QB that doesn't show a lot of mobility (a la Denver and NE). Therefore, one can safely conclude that either (A) Tannehill needs to start moving around more like Wilson, Luck, Romo and Rodgers or (B) Miami needs to set about building an elite pass-blocking O-line.

 

I think one aspect of pocket presence that goes unnoticed is the ability to not just feel a rusher bearing down on you but how likely you are to get pressured in a particular situation. I bet on their best days Brady and Manning can feel that the defensive end is gaining momentum on this third and ten so they get rid of it quick and maybe the next third and ten they "know" the protection will hold up so they hold it a bit longer.

Tannehill is not just not as good as the greats, nor do I expect him to be, but I think he's actually terrible at sensing when he has to get rid of it and when he can hold it a bit longer. In the Buffalo game when they sack/stripped us and stole the win he should have been on high alert. He just changed the play from run to a pass. It was getting down to crunch time, one more first down and we likely win, the pass rushers are pinning their ears back and we've got Clabo one on one against Mario Williams. Multiple alarms should have been going off in his head, he had to throw it almost instantly or start running for his life. Instead he just stood there and let a defender take the ball from his hand.

 

Where when?

I think I recall a single pass to Hartline where he didn't have to stop and wait for the ball.

 

I think it is some of both. Some certainly on Tannehill and some on the OL. With 2 OL coaches, 2 OC's, and 9 new OL players you get the same results...... you gotta start wondering ..

 

This is true, but I believe part of that is because the raw offensive line stats don't reflect other correlations that influence the primary QB stats. For instance, I recall reading an article that showed that QB hit % was pretty strongly correlated with INT numbers (completion % was too). The number of sacks doesn't directly correlate to the primary QB stats, but QB sacks + sack yards lost do impact net ypa, and unsurprisingly Cam Newton, Tannehill, and Kapernick all had high sack numbers and yards lost, and that dropped their..."acceptable" YPA numbers drastically. Unsurprisingly, none of those 3 QBs had a winning season. I'm sure there are correlations to be found between offensive line play and QB play, but it won't be an easy one to one. Some other issues to consider that I'm not sure can be correlated are offensive play design and philosophy, which may also be related to line play but not in any way that I can see being teased apart to give a better picture of how either would impact QB play.

 

This is when in my view you have to start measuring a player's instincts and reactions on a play-by-play basis. The truth is that you're probably not going to find statistics that speak to what's happening in the pocket with sufficient clarity that it might be possible to identify what a particularly lineman or the QB himself should have, had to or decided to do given some set of circumstances.

I also think that at Ryan Tannehill's age and level of experience you start to see diminishing returns with "coaching." Tannehill has been in the league for 3 seasons during which he's been under pressure quite a bit. He's shown that he's tough and can take a hit but we've also had 3 years to see that his level of improvisation is more limited than we'd like. I think it's possible that he improves, but I don't think he'll get to the level of Wilson and Rodgers are at now nor will he ever show the level of fluidity and comfort within the pocket that Andrew Luck does.

I look at Joe Flacco as a QB that has evolved his abilities under pressure quite a bit but he's also willing to sling the ball quite a bit more than the average QB. Flacco doesn't hesitate to let it go. He trusts his arm as much as Luck and Rodgers do. Each of those 3 has confidence in not only their arm strength but their ability to fit the ball into tight windows, even on deeper throws. Ryan Tannehill does not exhibit that type of confidence and propensity to sling it.

What ultimately demonstrates his ceiling to me, is that when Tannehill has been aggressive we've seen his INT numbers go up. We start to see him throw into double coverage down-field as well. We see him throw the ball into places where the WR has to knock it down so that it's not intercepted. I think what people are realizing is that the way Philbin and Lazor structured the offense this year was not out of their own conservative nature but more so out of a necessity to help Ryan Tannehill.

 

Hmm, what about offensive line WPA? They seem to have an interesting way of looking at things. Of course, WPA isn't predictive by any means, but it has been my personal favorite metric for individual skill players. I haven't looked at the rankings for units as a whole (I usually stick with DVOA for that).

 

How do you decide if its the QB or oline who's responsible fir the sack?

 

Its both. Almost always both. The defensive players job is not to beat the o-line, its to get the QB. Its the defense vs the QB, the o-line is just a layer of defense.

 

One hand washes the other.

 

Yeah, but PFF also separates those from the OL and puts them onto the backs and QBs as well.

Of the total 46 sacks and 98 hits, the OL was deemed responsible for 34 sacks, 50 hits, and 144 hurries.

The other 12 sacks and misc hits were attributed to the backs and TEs in pass protection, or directly on the QB himself.

 

So, if we figured one sack apiece for each tight end and back, Tannehill would be responsible for maybe 8 sacks, maybe? That seems high to me, but for the sake of argument.

 

I think it's a bold claim to make that sacks have no effect on rating or YPA. You're claiming that getting sacked/hit doesn't result in quarterbacks making quicker throws (to shorter routes) and doesn't routinely have them throwing while under duress.

 

And it's entirely possible that a QB who's under duress on every dropback has his play affected, and posts low numbers, but it isn't tracked by those stats. I think what you're advocating would apply to QBs who are used to having good protection, and aren't often hurried/hit/sacked. So, when they are hurried/hit/sacked, it's an aberration, and doesn't affect their mindset, or the overall gamelan for the offense. What you are advocating is really a convoluted way of once again absolving the oline of their abhorrent play, by saying that their play has nothing to do with how the QB plays. It's again, saying that the offensive woes are all on Tannehill. I'll point you to Brady and Romo as two shining current examples of oline play stabilizing, and allowing the quarterbacks to do great things. Did everyone forget how terrible Brady looked early in the year, with a different line every other series, and everyone talking about Brady being done?

 

The Seahawks are now a staggering 27-1 in games decided by eight or more points with Wilson at QB.
Rodgers: 50-15
P. Manning: 108-38
Brady: 102-24

Romo: 49-26
Luck: 15-11
Flacco: 44-13
Cam Newton: 21-15

Dalton: 22-12
Kaepernick: 20-10
Rivers: 60-24
Matt Ryan: 34-23
Eli: 58-48
Tannehill: 12-13
Orton: 24-23
Fiedler: 27-13
Henne: 5-30
Bledsoe: 51-42
Brady's first 3 seasons: 19-8
Sanchez's first 3 seasons: 16-10

Not quite sure what to make of this. The Seahawks clearly have to have one of the greatest records in the history of the game at 27-1 over three seasons, and I guess the record reflects the fact that they great in all phases.

I think Tannehill's floor is Kyle Orton and his ceiling is probably a Matt Ryan or Drew Bledsoe and right now he's equal with Andy Dalton.

Bengals and 49ers both have teams similar to the Seahawks (coaching, defense, running game) so what the record shows is how much better Wilson is than Dalton and Kaepernick. Wilson is worth 2-3 more wins a season than Dalton. And the Bengals talent/coaching is worth 2-3 more wins a season than the Dolphins.