I'm out on Tannehill

a tweet i saw

 

The average number of sacks surrendered in the league this year was 38.

 

How does that contradict my point?

 

yeah exactly. tannehill and wilson have enough to worry about in terms of reading a defense and going through progressions, they don't need 3 or 4 pass rushers coming free on every single play.

 

I didn't say it did. It was simply information for you to consider.

 

Honest question -- if Tannehill only got sack 38 times, would you be comfortable with that number?

 

It would depend on where in this list he fell. As you can probably see, there is little if any correlation between sacks in that range and quarterback performance: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

 

Nice, but that exact search was a bit finely tuned for Tannehill. Strip out the age (26) and Jeff Garcia had a better season back in 2000.

Still they are the only 2 players in their 3rd seasons to hit those particular marks.

If you want to allow more INTs, say 16, then Stafford flat out annihilates every 3rd year QB with 5,038 yards, 41 TDs, and 16 INTs. Andrew Luck came closest to him just this season. That also drops Tannehill to the 7th best season every by a 3rd year QB.

http://pfref.com/tiny/NJQGy

 

that's still some pretty good company.

 

Aside from the Patriots, the Dolphins are in a division with the Bills and Jets. Yet still not one winning season in the past three years.

As far the AFC south is concerned. Perhaps you should check the Dolphins record against the Houston Texans since the Texans started in the league as an expansion team. The Dolphins have not won a single game against the Texans. Also the Titans came into Miami a couple of years ago and handed the Dolphins a beating.

I doubt if the Dolphins record would have been any better the past three years if they been in the AFC South.
This year both the Colts and the Texans had a better record than the Dolphins and the Texans did it with QB's who would be backups on most teams in the NFL.

 

Except that, for the most part, high sack rate seems to correlate to low YPA, something that quite a few people have gotten on Tannehill for, so.... there's that.

 

That may be so, but if the Dolphins wouldn't have gotten a better record in the AFC South, maybe it says a lot less about the quality of that particular division and more about our problems as a team.

 

The correlation between sacks and YPA for 351 QBs between 2004 and 2014 is -0.02. Virtually no relationship whatsoever.

 

I had only read your comments and I didn't realize you were responding to another comment.

I apologize for my reaction to your comments, since I should have read the entire thread in an effort to understand what your comments were in response to.

If my response offended you so much that you don't want me to reply to your comments in the future, I will certainly abide by your wishes. I am only responding at this time to offer my apology, but from now on I'll just ignore you comments ,so as not to further offend you in the future.

 

Sure about that?

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

 

Yes.

 

Let's just agree to disagree on this point.

 

Sure thing.

 

I NEVER said we don't have problems on this team. I personally think we have major problems on this team and it starts with the owner.

As far as Tannehill is concerned. I stated in an earlier post that I think he showed good progress this year. He certainly wasn't one of the major problems with this team and obviously he was one of the few bright spots on this team.

I just don't see him as a QB that is ever going to be anymore than a mid tier starting QB in the NFL. I believe he can get this team to the playoffs, but not to the Super Bowl. To me, he has issues in his game that I just think will prevent him from ever getting into the top 10 of NFL QB's and certainly never to the elite level.

My view is that for this team to get to a level to be a legitimate Super Bowl Contender in the future, it will take a QB with a better overall skill set than Tannehill. At this time though, he is certainly better than any of the free agents QB's who will be on the market this year and the Dolphins have no chance to get a top QB in the draft.

So I'm willing to live with Tannehill until a better option comes along.

 

So, besides the belabored deep game, which would look a lot better if our WRs caught the ball more often, what is he missing?

Thanks I'll hang up and listen.

 

I agree with this and it scares the bejeesus out of me. Because if we're not aggressively searching for the better option in the meantime its entirely possible it won't come along for a decade plus. Just look at Cutler, he's already wasted 9 years of football fans lives, if the Bears new coach decides he's the guy that can fix Cutler and drafts him more weapons rather than another QB it'll likely be another 3 or 4 years wasted.

 

I agree, Cutler has put up solid stats over several years. He has a better arm than Tannehill and he has led his team to the playoffs in the past. He just doesn't have what it takes to lead his team to that next level and now it appears he is headed toward a decline in his career.

There is just something in Tannehill that makes be think he will reach a certain level of play, but just not ever get to the level which helps get this team to the highest level. I wish I felt more confident about him long term but I just don't.

I have no problem with those who think Tannehill is going to be an elite QB in this league. I respect their opinion, while not necessarily agreeing with their view of Tannehill

 

The problem is that the kinds of QBs who don't necessitate "weapons" (uncommonly strong surrounding talent) don't come along often enough to take that other path.

 

I haven't ignored your request because I have no response. In fact I wrote a long post on page 25 of this thread explaining my concerns regarding Tannehill. Perhaps you will want to take the time to read that post so I don't have to repeat my comments just a few pages later.

I don't write my posts in an effort to create anguish on the part of Tannehill supporters or to belittle what he accomplished this past season. I just don't feel at this time he is the QB who can lead this team to the Super Bowl, and to me that is what you ultimately want from your QB.

He is fine for now, in my opinion, but I think we will eventually need to find a better QB before this team can reach the heights we all hope this team can achieve in the future.

 

It's a frustrating weakness given his athleticism but I'll live with it, WTF sacks are better than WTF interceptions, no?

 

Interceptions are certainly worse, but you can make an argument that leaving the pocket has its benefits, since intentional grounding outside the pocket is impossible as long as the QB gets the ball at least back to the line of scrimmage. In other words, losing zero yardage on an unsuccessful passing play (as opposed to losing yardage on a sack) becomes a much stronger possibility when a quarterback has left the pocket, and sacks tend to be drive-stallers.

 

Could ANY QB lead "this team" to the Super Bowl? I seriously doubt it. Maybe we in 2-3 more games with an elite QB but we're deficient in areas not even a Rodgers type can overcome.

Once Albert (and Moreno) went down we simply didn't have the firepower to sustain offense for 60 minutes, that's not a QB issue imo.

 

Agreed, that's why I call them WTF sacks, like dude, why are u just standing there? Move!!!

If he's ever going to be a top tier QB RT needs to tighten that up. In the mean time there are other positions that need to be addressed and its those positions that held us back this year. More than anything else RTs crime this season failing to compensate for the failures of others.

 

Most Super Bowl winning teams could not have done it without their QB.

 

Well, I have to respectively disagree with that.

Despite everything that Tannehill has to deal with, he has managed to put up 27 TD to only 12 interceptions on (a little) over 4000 yards.

As I say this, I'm fully aware that I could be wrong, as Tannehill is still has quite a bit of things to work on. But so far, every single year, he's shown stark improvement with no viable sign of him reaching his ceiling.

 

a top 10 qb can win superbowls will he ever be "elite" that remains to be seen but top 10 can get it done.