1. Houston Texans ... QB Blake Bortles, UCF 2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) ... OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M 3. Jacksonville Jaguars ... DE Jadaveon Clowney, South Carolina 4. Cleveland Browns ... WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson 5. Oakland Raiders ... DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh 6. Atlanta Falcons ... OT Greg Robinson, Auburn 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ... QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville 8. Minnesota Vikings ... LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo 9. Buffalo Bills ... WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M 10. Detroit Lions ... LB Anthony Barr, UCLA 11. Tennessee Titans ... CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State 12. New York Giants ... TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina 13. St. Louis Rams ... CB Jason Verrett, TCU 14. Chicago Bears ... DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota 15. Pittsburgh Steelers ... OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan 16. Dallas Cowboys ... QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M 17. Baltimore Ravens ... DE Kony Ealy, Missouri 18. New York Jets ... DE Dee Ford, Auburn 19. Miami Dolphins ... OT Morgan Moses, Virginia Most notable players remaining would be WR Brandin Cooks, TE Jace Amaro, OT Zack Martin, OG Xavier Su'a-Filo, DT Timmy Jernigan, DE/LB Demarcus Lawrence, MLB C.J. Mosley, OLB Ryan Shazier, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Darqueze Dennard, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S Calvin Pryor.
If the Cowboys take Manziel, there's going to be an opening for host of ESPN First Take because Skip Bayless will die from an euphoria induced heart attack.
The one I'm not sure about is Oakland since they have Justin Tuck, Pat Sims, Antonio Smith and Lamarr Woodley. However I think Aaron Donald fits within that construct still. Also, the guy I thought they might take if they don't take Donald is Bridgewater. And if they take Bridgewater at #5 then I have a feeling Tampa will take Donald at #7. So you could really just swap them out.
I will say that sometimes it even comes into play for Qb's, Matt Flynn, Jimmy Claussen, mark Sanchez..
What do you guys think about a possible trade down with the Browns? Miami's 19 and 50 picks For... Cleveland's 26 plus 35 plus 6th round pick The value is equivalent on the trade value chart.
If I'm trading down I would want the emphasis to be on acquiring more picks period, not necessarily just making out 2nd round pick better than it is.
Yeah, I hear you. It would technically add a 6th rounder. I guess the point of the trade would be a better chance at Troy Niklas in 2nd round. And Morgan Moses at 26 is a little more acceptable than at 19.
Provided a stud hasn't dropped in our lap, I'd make that trade. It's likely that one of our targets at 19 will still be there at 26. Perhaps we'd end up with one of Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, CJ Mosley, or Kyle Fuller.... and then Morgan Moses at 35. I'd rather be able to land one of the 1st round impact players [like the four I mentioned] PLUS Moses rather than Moses followed by a second tier player at 50.
Good deal for us. Thats 15 more players available to us in the 2nd. We would pretty much have 2 first rounders.
I'd take the trade. There's a few players that I think will be available at #35 that I don't think will last until #50, and I don't think the dropoff in Miami's wants is too much from #19 to #26. Ideally to make that trade happen we'd want the Browns to take a non-QB player at #4 (likely) and then for there to be a run on QB's before we pick thus diluting the QB pool. It's possible.
Depends on who we are targeting. If you are targeting a player who is likely to be there at 35 but not at 50, then yes. An example would be Gabe Jackson who is ranked around #50.
I agree with you. I'd much rather have 26 & 35 than 19 & 50. However, depending on who's on the board at 19, Cleveland might be tempted to give up 26 & their 3rd rounder for 19, and we get to keep 50. I'd take that over the other choices too. Deep draft, and we need depth.
You jest but I kind of wish we had Tim Dobbins. If there's one thing that guy can always do it's defend the run and attack the line of scrimmage. He's getting old now of course (32 years old this year). But the year he was with Miami his +5.6 run defense grade on PFF and his +2.5 pass rush grade I think reflected well what he was good at. He went off to Houston and continued to stand out as a run stopper. His run stop percentages have always been ranked high relative to his playing time. That was the thing we couldn't do in 2013, consistently stop the run for four quarters.
I'm about to pick on someone nobody picks on. Greg Robinson of Auburn. Robinson is a left tackle. That's what the NFL wants for him at the next level. The most important part of a left tackle's job description BY FAR is his ability to pass protect. Prior to 2013, Greg Robinson was not high on radar that I know of. I'm sure the scouts knew of him and many liked him, wondered how he would do in the future. Personally I don't think you could watch tape of him in 2012 and not be super intrigued by his natural abilities. But he wasn't anywhere near "elite" on these scouts' standings, I can damn near guarantee that much. He made his name based on 2013 tape. That's fine. It happens that way sometimes, especially for underclassmen. But he did so in an option, run-based scheme which only threw the ball 22 times a game. Of those 22 passes, way more than half of them were either screen passes of some sort, or options/roll-outs where Robinson just continued to run block the same way he'd always run blocked. Sometimes all he'd have to do is cut block a guy so the ball could come out on a quick pass. What he's not doing on the majority of these is kick stepping in a way that translates in the NFL on pass downs. And the NFL is FULL of pass downs where they need their left tackle to kick step and protect against speedy pass rushers. If your left tackle is weak against that, defensive coaches will notice and they will game plan to where your left tackle has to step up and isolate one on one in these situations. They'll force your hand. The number of times you can find this guy doing something that gives you some idea of what he can do in the pros on your typical passing downs is somewhere between 2 and 6 times a game in 2013, IMO. That's most games, anyway. There were more against LSU and Mississippi State I think. We're talking only 50 to 60 snaps the whole damn season...that are supposed to give you an idea what this guy is at the NUMBER ONE PRIORITY OF HIS POSITION. That's it. About 50 or 60 snaps to judge whether the dude plays left tackle in the NFL. Now I haven't stacked all of those up yet. I've done some, but not all of it. I'm just here to tell you that he gets beat on these snaps a pretty high percentage of the time. Not necessarily more often than not, but let's keep in mind the numbers here. It's very much a numbers game, like a batting average or a shooting percentage. You've got to handle your sh-t probably eight times for every one time you're losing it even a little bit, when it comes to pass pro. There should be 8x as much good tape as bad. So here's an exercise. Let's go back to 2012 for Greg Robinson. This is when the Auburn offense was still very much a run-based offense (only 23 pass attempts per game) but they played from behind more often and were forced to drop back into a pass protection much more often. What you're going to find below are clips from tapes that weren't originally intended to show Greg Robinson at all. They were intended to show off a bunch of defensive players that faced the Auburn offense in 2012. Each clip you see isolated from me is a lowlight. I won't pretend this is a fair sampling. It is hatchet job. Make no mistake. So why do I do it? Because I want to give you an idea whether there are simply too many of these. Barkevious Mingo & Sam Montgomery vs. Auburn http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIms6ImVG6w&feature=player_embedded#t=499 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIms6ImVG6w&feature=player_embedded#t=629 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIms6ImVG6w&feature=player_embedded#t=674 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIms6ImVG6w&feature=player_embedded#t=682 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIms6ImVG6w&feature=player_embedded#t=690 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r_SK-Q-u-s&feature=player_detailpage#t=317 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r_SK-Q-u-s&feature=player_detailpage#t=377 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r_SK-Q-u-s&feature=player_detailpage#t=405 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r_SK-Q-u-s&feature=player_detailpage#t=496 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1r_SK-Q-u-s&feature=player_detailpage#t=616 Jarvis Jones & Baccari Rambo vs. Auburn http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=x4hfGQMmMKo#t=98 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=x4hfGQMmMKo#t=235 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=x4hfGQMmMKo#t=305 SACK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=x4hfGQMmMKo#t=378 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nUk0pfieLg&feature=player_embedded#t=175 Trey Flowers & Chris Smith vs. Auburn SACK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfgatdgsK0U&feature=player_detailpage#t=54 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfgatdgsK0U&feature=player_detailpage#t=111 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfgatdgsK0U&feature=player_detailpage#t=164 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfgatdgsK0U&feature=player_detailpage#t=228 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfgatdgsK0U&feature=player_detailpage#t=258 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfgatdgsK0U&feature=player_detailpage#t=422 Darius Slay & Johnthan Banks vs. Auburn http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nxf2qWwiUo&feature=player_embedded#t=128 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1FEJdeNRr0&feature=player_embedded#t=33 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1FEJdeNRr0&feature=player_embedded#t=172 Sean Porter vs. Auburn http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xKI1Dsiy_Ok#t=49 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xKI1Dsiy_Ok#t=256 Malliciah Goodman vs. Auburn http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiW6p0n4vdc&feature=player_embedded#t=166 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiW6p0n4vdc&feature=player_embedded#t=210 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiW6p0n4vdc&feature=player_embedded#t=241 Here's a list of the players I've seen beating Greg Robinson in pass rush on all this footage: LB Sean Porter DE Corey Crawford DE Vic Beasley DE Chris Smith DE Austin Flynn DB Micah Eugene DE Sam Montgomery DE Jermauria Rasco DB Damian Swann DE Ray Drew LB Jarvis Jones DE Cornelius Washington DE Denico Autry DT Josh Boyd Now from having seen all of the footage (not just the clipped footage, all of it), I can tell you a few things. For one thing I think the instances where he's winning in pass pro outnumber the instances where he's not by about 4-to-1, depending on the opponent. And furthermore, when it looks good for Robinson it tends to look REAL good, as in he's showing off some of that unique ability he has. But when it looks bad, it looks bad, and it looks bad too often. I am not saying I wouldn't draft this guy. On the contrary I'd love him at 19 overall. When you watch him run block enough and get a true feel for it, you really do marvel at what an enigmatic player he is because his run blocking is so far ahead of his pass blocking and there's crazy physical ability underpinning both sides of his game. He almost starts to make some things that would be extremely fun to watch a little less fun, because he does them so often. You see him murder two defenders on a run play in a situation that just isn't normal, some guys that would get you all jazzed up but this guy it happens enough that you say oh that's just him doing what he does. But riddle me this. If he were playing in a PASS-BASED college offense, would he have climbed this high in the draft boards? And the reason it's relevant is that's what the NFL is. The NFL is full of PASS-BASED offense. It's not what he played in 2013 and it's not even what he played in 2012. Tough call if you're one of those teams in the top ten and everyone wants you to consider the guy to be "elite" talent because of his run blocking (which is a minor part of a left tackle's value) and because of his tangibles (which admittedly is a big part of the evaluation at that spot).
This is more than the real number of relevant kick step pass protections that I mentioned before. I think only half of these are relevant. But I included all that were relevant on the most technical basis just so that you could judge for yourself. This game along with the LSU game probably featured more of these than any other games the whole year, and were actually the reason that Gus Malzahn made some changes to the offense after LSU because he knew he couldn't win like this. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=565 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=654 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=1257 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=1335 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=1786 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=2042 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=2544 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=3398 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=3906 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=5091 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=5705 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=6152 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=6691 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=6741 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=7371 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=7427 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=7521 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=7559 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=7595 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chd2otrgut0&feature=player_detailpage#t=7729 What I would point out is notice toward the end of the game when Auburn got into situations where they needed to pass the football and needed to hold onto the football in order to do it, and the Mississippi State defense KNEW it, then all the sudden Denico Autry could pin his ears back a little bit and he started to beat Greg Robinson. These are the kinds of subtle things you notice if you watch enough tape of Robinson, and they give you a bit of heartburn because we're talking about this guy going top 5 as an elite left tackle prospect.
Romo is a lazy dude when it comes to his craft...shock the Jerry world and I say go for it..fill that mortuary of a stadium up.
He's a left tackle first. Just one that is a little more questionable than most people think. You could try him at right tackle but if you do that you're taking a risk. He's already (purely IMO) questionable in pass pro at left tackle. Will he be even worse when asked to kick step from the right side? Probably would be an absolutely brutal left guard tho. Dave DeCastro level.
Starting to think that a corner will be bpa at 19. Reeaallly liking Kyle Fuller a lot, and Jason Verrett too. I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Fuller is not the best player left at 19, personally. After having signed two (older) FAs and spent two top-3 picks last year, do you think the FO would invest more in the position? Feel like we could be in a "true bpa?" kind of quandary.
I agree with you. When I watched a lot of Kyle Fuller's tape I knew that he would most likely end up the BPA at pick 19 simply because my evaluation of him was so much higher than where he appeared to be rated at the moment. Jason Verrett similar. I don't think they'll go there though. I really don't. I believe they will be internally consistent with the philosophies they seem to have laid out in free agency and that is an emphasis on building through the draft by means of using the draft to fill immediate holes. They will approach this draft absolutely needing a right tackle. It's not just a "need". It's what Jeff Ireland used to deem a "must". They just don't have one. Their worst case scenario is to re-visit the market and try and sign someone like Eric Winston (who has been playing terribly as of late), J'Marcus Webb (who really isn't worth anything but a camp invite), Jeremy Trueblood (see Winston) or Tyson Clabo (I can barely contain my excitement). So they have to make sure they get a guy and that means taking one at 19 or at worst 50. But the thing is they also still need a guard. They talk about possibly having Dallas Thomas, Nate Garner and Sam Brenner compete for a starting position...but boy is that a worst case scenario. Hell that was a worst case scenario even in 2013 with this franchise-worst OL in place. I also believe they would really like a linebacker. This could be either a true Mike linebacker gives them an excuse to move Dannell Ellerbe to the outside, or an outside linebacker to directly take the place of Wheeler or Misi. With the signing of Knowshon Moreno it does appear their focus on the RB position has shifted downward to the 4th to 5th round area. They do still want a 3rd wide receiver that can compete with Brandon Gibson and be insurance in case his injury rehab isn't going well but they may view Armon Binns to be an OK worst case scenario for that. Regardless, they are heading into this draft with needs. That's the way they've structured themselves. If that's the way you've structured yourself then I do not believe you are the type of management that would be looking at a corner at 19 overall when you have Brent Grimes, Cortland Finnegan, Jamar Taylor and Will Davis.
Of course there is a certain amount of projection involved based on his size, strength and athleticism relative to how high his draft stock is, playing in a predominantly run based college zone read option offense blurs those lines, but damn, this is good stuff, well thought out analysis, and accurate..basically Jake Matthews is a precise technician of the game, Robinson is a mauler.
Probably THE most intriguing thing about Greg Robinson is his flexibility and bend in run blocking. He can REALLY redirect on his feet and generate power. That's what gives you hope for the pass pro to eventually come around. But I think Alen1 had the best prescription. He should be playing left guard initially while someone else plays left tackle and teaches him the ropes, teaches him the zone protections and how he needs to move, etc. Then he should take over the left tackle spot.
I can see that as a plus if Moses can play RT (even though it would be drafting "need" that is a huge need along with OG). What makes you believe Moses can play RT better than Zack Martin? Maybe Moses played RT earlier in his career - just curious. I've watched a couple of games of these guys and Martin looks to me more mobile, able to move to his right a lot better, he looks quicker getting to the second level much faster than Moses, he can block down on DTs well, and is a really "aware" player (More so than a lot of pros - many of them on the Dolphins line last year) in that he is able to go to his blocking assignment but also sees the field well enough to shift a different direction to pick up another player. And, he looks just as strong though not as big and prototypical for an OT as Moses. That's the only advantage I saw in Moses is his arm length and height which translates to OT better. But, Martin is a very impressive blocker even against stellar competition. He looked very good against Alabama as a JR. Would like to hear your comparison of the two and why you'd favor Moses over Martin.
Bill Lazor himself coached Morgan Moses for three years at UVA as a right tackle. Moses only moved to left tackle in 2013 after Oday Aboushi graduated.
I wish we knew what we are going to get with Jamar Taylor, I surely would hate to see us lose out on a Jason Verrett because we still HOPE he will be good.
I honestly wouldn't take a single lineman in the first round at 19. The cream of the crop would probably be gone and there are some solid later round options. I've said it a lot but Bitonio is at worst a really good NFL guard, at best, a solid enough RT.
I just can't get with the program on Odell Beckham in the 1st round. Some people are talking about him as the 2nd best WR in the class now. Some are even saying the best, better than Watkins. The problem is this could be Troy Williamson all over again. There's a lot of speed with Beckham but not a lot of physicality. When you do a thorough examination of his film what you find is that when even average (for COLLEGE ball) corners get physical with him and challenge him in tight man coverage, press or no press, he becomes a very average (for COLLEGE ball) receiver. I watched this happen when Jason Verrett went up against him but I also watched it happen against very average (for COLLEGE ball) corners on Auburn, Texas A&M and Alabama. Get physical with him early in the route, and you can run with him deep. And if you are able to run with him, he's puddy in your hands. The problem is there were some great catches he made against some of the SEC opponents and people don't stop to look at the quality of the coverage. I'm not talking about WHO was covering him, I'm talking about WHAT that person covering him did. There were several such throws and catches in the Mississippi State game which is I think a game that stands out in everyone's mind (because I certainly hope the 36% of his total production that came against Furman, Kent State and UAB isn't what stands out in peoples' minds). But go back and watch his Texas A&M game, watch his Alabama game, watch him against Auburn...he really wilts and becomes a very average player when physically challenged. But the Ole Miss game showed something else. Usually the rule is if you give him a ton of real estate to where he can just run against air all day, he can smoke you. But Ole Miss showed that's not even necessarily the case as his 4.43 speed isn't by any means impossible to keep up with deep. And when you're able to keep up with him deep then again, he wilts at the point of the catch. There's an interception against Ole Miss that has to remind everyone of the very worst of Mike Wallace, not properly tracking the football in the air while Charles Sawyer (who ran a 4.53 at his pro day a month ago) easily runs stride for stride with him deep and is able to track and intercept the ball even while running off balance. That's the problem with these deep speed guys. They'd better actually have the deep speed. If they don't then when you're throwing the football to them they've got all their momentum forward trying to create separation, and it makes it difficult for them to do anything but fall passively away from the ball and wait for it to hit their hands. At least Mike Wallace actually has that 4.28 speed. But even he ends up covered on some of these deep balls. What happens when Odell Beckham comes into the NFL with 4.43 speed? Can he run routes? Yes and no. I believe he runs intermediate breaking routes pretty well such as the curl and deep dig. But there's a caveat. Especially when it comes to the curl, he needs to be given a LOT of space off the line and the corner has to be playing pretty conservative on him in order for Beckham to get open on those routes. If he's in tight man, he's really not going to get open on anything except the quick slant every now and then, and he's not posing special problems in RAC on those plays either. The deep dig against zone he can consistently run and catch so long as the safety to that side is asleep at the wheel. But some quarters corners will also be able to defend that, and not because they are especially fast or especially good. A guy like Trumaine McBride probably could do it and he's got no better than 4.55 speed. Can he run routes and defeat physicality both at the beginning of the route and at the point of the catch against man coverage? No he can't. Not yet anyway. I mean, as it is I'm hanging on by a thin thread just putting him in the 2nd round. And I watch a player like Bruce Ellington play and I get antsy about having Beckham placed above him. I'm CERTAINLY not going to have Beckham above someone like Allen Robinson or Brandin Cooks.
Seantrel Henderson ended his workout early at the Miami pro-day. Rumors circulating that he "quit" but his agents are saying that he was dehydrated.
According to Barry Jackson he did the Combine drills and a lot of the positional drills but missed the final two drills because he felt sick and dehydrated. He came back out and met with several teams afterward and conducted his business normally. Chris Mortenson's sources probably had a vested interest in making sure the word "quit" was used.
This is another direction the draft could go, starting from the top... 1. Houston Texans ... DE Jadaveon Clowney, South Carolina 2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) ... OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M 3. Jacksonville Jaguars ... QB Blake Bortles, UCF 4. Cleveland Browns ... QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M 5. Oakland Raiders ... WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson 6. Atlanta Falcons ... OT Greg Robinson, Auburn 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ... WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M 8. Minnesota Vikings ... LB Khalil Mack, Buffalo 9. Buffalo Bills ... OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan 10. Detroit Lions ... LB Anthony Barr, UCLA 11. Tennessee Titans ... CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State 12. New York Giants ... TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina 13. St. Louis Rams ... FS Hasean Clinton-Dix, Alabama 14. Chicago Bears ... DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh 15. Pittsburgh Steelers ... OT Zack Martin, Notre Dame 16. Dallas Cowboys ... FS Terrence Brooks, Florida State 17. Baltimore Ravens ... DE Kony Ealy, Missouri 18. New York Jets ... CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State 19. Miami Dolphins ... OT Morgan Moses, Virginia I think at that point the Houston Texans would look for a way to trade back up and get Bridgewater.
Up 8 lbs. from the combine.Miami met with DT Justin Anderson at UMass' pro-day.Willie Snead ran in the low 4.5 at the Ball State pro-day (4.67 at the combine).Credits to Salguero and Pauline.
I know everyone loves Mack, but I wouldn't take him over Donald..Donald is the best defensive player in the draft with clowney having the most upside.
