You can never have too many good players period. But on the other hand when your coaching staff isn't on board with a guy and doesn't have a vision for how he's going to be used right that's when you get a Dion Jordan issue.
This is a new video for TE Troy Niklas. [video=youtube;A62AKY8Yjpc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A62AKY8Yjpc&feature=player_embedded[/video] The video I did on Niklas focused on the damage he does in the passing game and this is because I sensed immediately with this prospect that the passing game is where he has to prove himself. He is after all a big, burly defensive line convert that blocks really well. People are going to want to see him the way they expect to see him and he's got to break that expectation. However, every now and then it's good to look at one of these videos that show his complete game including and especially his blocking. It's true that if you want this guy to be a Pro Bowler or have a bunch of media notoriety, become known to everyone as one of the best tight ends in the game, etc...then he needs to be special in the passing game...and you're probably going to disregard his blocking. But if you're a coach and you want to win football games then you pay close attention to those blocking skills. He is out there blocking every bit as effectively as a 3rd offensive tackle would block if placed in the same situations. Watch him block and tell me that's not true. I'm not saying he could convert to left tackle and be a pro bowler but if you look around the league as much as I do and watch 3rd offensive tackles when they come into a game, see the function they serve, you can't tell me he's not AT LEAST as good as them in the exact same situations. But there aren't any 3rd offensive tackles in football that will make a play like Niklas does at 8:34 in the above video. That's what makes him so special. If you're a secondary you have to respect his passing threat when he's in the game. If he gets loose into the secondary and you get into some kind of extra time situation like the one on this touchdown, all you have to do is throw the ball up and with his size, athletic ability, soft hands and ability to catch outside his frame, he can just pluck that ball away from smaller defensive backs like it's nothing. He's a severe threat in those situations. He's also a tremendous threat with the football in his hands running after the catch because he's so athletic. He breaks tackles and pushes for extra yardage. He's good at creating separation in man coverage against linebackers on little out routes and the like, using his physicality. He's a HUGE target up the middle of the field that demands the safety stay on the hash mark. All of these things will prevent a defense treating him like a 3rd offensive tackle. Yet he'll go out there and block like one. You will score touchdowns in the running game because of him. You will convert 1st downs that keep potential touchdown drives alive because of him. You will keep a quarterback's jersey clean to where he can complete deep balls down the field to the likes of Mike Wallace because of him. You can't tell me that doesn't make a difference. If you want to win football games, it does. If you want a guy to end up commanding a $10 million per year contract because the media and fans won't shut up about him, perhaps it doesn't.
Wow...South Dakota LB Tyler Starr looks like a heck of a prospect. He's 6' 4.5" and 249 lbs. I sense he's going to make some headlines at the Combine with the way he moves. I'd like to run him through the same battery of tests Dion Jordan did so well on in the Sports Science segment. [video=youtube;azuNv-9yQsA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azuNv-9yQsA&feature=player_embedded[/video] [video=youtube;PCtBaZDOrsM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCtBaZDOrsM&feature=player_detailpage[/video] Honestly I'm watching the guy and thinking to myself that I need to revisit tapes of Khalil Mack and make sure I can isolate again what Mack has that this guy doesn't. That's how impressive this is.
This is true. But can you imagine giving a defensive coordinator with some creativity the likes of Cam Wake, Dion Jordan, and Anthony Barr. Tom Brady's worse nightmare, in fact any QB's worse nightmare.
Maybe. All three of them are outside pass rushers. The problem? By definition there are only two "outsides". Personally I don't think that kind of attack has enough gravity. All three dudes are light in the pants.
True. My thinking was more towards post-Wake. They went after Michael Bennett and Michael Johnson last year under Ireland, think they try again this year?
Michael Bennett is a possibility as they're losing Randy Starks and Bennett's specialty is pass rushing from the tackle position on pass rush downs. But doubtful. They won't be ready to ditch on Dion Jordan yet even though I think some of the staff would really like to. Not sure any opportunities would present for that anyway. With Dion Jordan and Olivier Vernon both on roster...there's almost zero chance they go after either player (Johnson or Bennett).
Troy Niklas is the reason I want to trade down. Cleveland could be a target, they have picks 26 and 35. A trade involving Miami's 19 and 50 pick for Cleveland's 26 and 35 plus their 6th rounder would be absolutely even on the trade value chart.
Troy Niklas is the reason I want to trade down. The Browns could be a great trade partner. They have a late first and early 2nd rounder. Miami trades pick 19 and 50 for Cleveland's picks 26, 35 and their 6th rounder. Would be a completely even trade on the trade value chart.
This is kind of interesting as per Taylor Lewan and the combine, if accurate: At 6-foot-8, 309-pounds, there is very little that Taylor Lewan has to prove to scouts as far as his physical prowess is concerned. What he may do instead is make them marvel at just how ridiculously strong he is with his performance at the Combine. Though the bench press in Indy will only be 225 pounds as many times as guys can lift it, Lewan has a history of hoisting up 275 pounds 21 times in the past and he reportedly squats a ridiculous 550 pounds. Add those insane numbers to his vertical jump which is said to be 29-inches and an absolutely unheard of 4.8 seconds in the 40-yard dash and Lewan may just vault himself back into the top 10 conversation. Assault allegations are the only thing hanging over his head currently, and if he can assure scouts that those are misplaced then there’s no reason for Lewan not to be chosen in the early teens at the latest come draft day. Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2014/...ombine-to-keep-an-eye-on/?dpaFVkBe5OBRocTH.99 The one thing that I wonder about is whether or not 550 lbs is a ridiculous weight for a squat, I thought that the "redic" number would be higher than that. 21 reps of 275 lbs on the bench sounds pretty solid, though.
We may actually get to see the Dolphins draft guys like this now that we have a GM with a brain. Would love to say goodbye to Trusnik,Freeny, and the others with zilch for upside.
Not trying to rain on anyone's parade but we really don't know this yet. There's no reason to assume it.
I believe I have a new top Center in the class: Marcus Martin of USC. He's a junior and that's why I'm a little late to the party here. Most notable traits are the timing, effectiveness, frequency and quickness of his punches as well as his relentless style. He's willing to sprint around the field to get the job done. He likes to gather himself and stick his nose in like a ram, but his hands are exceptional as well. Biggest weakness really is he's not a super-athletic Center prospect like a Mike Pouncey. He's quick to get to the second level, willing to sprint, able to recover and is relentless in his aim at interfering with players. However he just doesn't have the athleticism to keep up with linebackers while his hands are engaged. That shouldn't be that shocking as he's 310 lbs and the linebackers are more like 230 lbs. Getting strong Rodney Hudson vibes from this guy. Just look at the occasions where he faced Louis Nix one-on-one, including on the goal line in a classic power situation where he took Nix down. [video=youtube;hKJAY2zW1Hk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKJAY2zW1Hk&feature=player_embedded[/video]
Trying to break out of a slump I've been in for the past few weeks in terms of looking at new prospects, so here's a little bit on Devonta Freeman who I just finished up with. Ability to gain yards after contact/ break tackles is pretty uninspiring. I understand there's a size element to this, but those are things that Seastrunk excels at despite his size. Freeman broken tackles on 4.14% of his carries which is below average and nearly half of Seastrunk's. He also gained 2.62 yards after the contact which is the lowest among backs I've looked at so far. If extra yardage isn't your forte, I'd expect something else to compensate for it...such as not getting stopped behind the LOS/ using good vision. Unfortunately Freeman gained less than 4 yards on 46.8% of carries (a good number should be 40% or less) and had negative carries on 8.2% total. Makes you a bit worried on why he's getting stopped short so much. On the plus side, a majority of his runs were inside (65.7%) and he averaged a solid 5.5 YPC, on outside runs he averaged 7.1 YPC. Strangely, he averaged higher YPC (6.6) when there was one more defender than blocker than when FSU had an extra blocker (4.2). That's pretty atypical as there is usually a decent correlation between YPC and blocker differential. All in all, I was impressed by his quickness/ acceleration, but not sure he's got that all around ability to be a number 1 type back. Maybe a nice zone back where he can use his quickness to hit the right hole, but I'm not sure we're looking at a guy who I feel comfortable with on a consistent basis. I'd much prefer Mason, Seastrunk, Hill.
You're seeing the same thing I see on Freeman. I like the guy and all but I have a category for players that I feel may be special (Tre Mason, Lache Seastrunk), a sub-category that comes close to those player (which contains only Jeremy Hill right now), and then a bunch of guys I don't particularly care about until later rounds because I think the shotgun approach (which will include especially UDFAs) is probably going to be a wiser decision.
Thanks for your work and for sharing it here (same for CK and others). I really would like a guy that can get yards after first contact. Tough yards on 3rd/4th and short, goal line and can pick up the blitz or chip on a pass rusher.
I don't trust him at all. First off, on the field he's anything but an orthodox passer. He shows flashes of ability to sit in the pocket, scan the field and throw rhythm passes. However that only comes in short flashes. He ticks off a number of red flags when it comes to on field performance. He's late on a lot of passes. He seems only comfortable throwing into wide open windows. He's a see-it-first guy rather than an anticipation guy. There are times you truly question whether he's even seeing what he's supposedly reading while he's inside the pocket, and his short stature doesn't give you confidence that he really is. There are times you would swear he's not even bothering to go through his progression, reading one thing (if that) and then deciding that he's going to hold the football and create extra time and some open vision. The extra time gives his receivers enough time to create a wide open window for him to throw in, and of course getting outside the pocket creates better vision for him. If he's going to be this kind of player, then he should probably be a lot bigger and faster than he is. He's small and he's not great at avoiding physical punishment. He's coming out of school because he doesn't want another year's worth of battering put on his small body while not making any money. That kind of tells you something. The real question is whether he can learn to be a crisp, timing-based passer. Can he learn to do things a lot differently than he did them in college. That's where the off field stuff scares me. The guy showed up to Manning Camp hungover/still drunk and was kicked out because of it. He's not JUST cocky and condident which is what his proponents will try and tell you. I don't think he comes from a good family environment, and it sounds to me like he might have a problem with alcohol. Look how much Ryan Mallett got torched for an admission that he smoked marijuana once (something the President of the United States has also copped to) and rumors (none confirmed) that he was a party boy. Mallett never did anything as ostentatious as showing up to Manning Camp drunk/hungover and being kicked out. He never got suspended by the NCAA for money making schemes and then engaged all kinds of childish "eff you" nonsense for the rest of the year showing no remorse. The NCAA's rules in this regard aren't fair. I know that. I don't particularly care. You show remorse because that's what you've got to do. You're going to be asked to deal with all kinds of things that you don't really agree with at the next level and you've got to show you can do that without acting like a 12 year old about it. I still believe you HAVE to be pretty good at rhythm pocket passing to survive in the NFL. Even the most unorthodox passers like Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton all show strong ability to sit in the pocket and deliver crisp rhythm passes. If you were to lock a ball and chain to their feet, I firmly believe you would still have at the very least a passer with average efficiency, and in the case of Russell Wilson much better than that. This is your base upon which you build the other plays that make you unique and hard to defend. Right now Robert Griffin is learning that lesson. He went through the exercise of having the ball and chain locked to his feet in the form of the knee injury. What people discovered is that when you force him to be a rhythm passer he's not all that good. And then he got belligerant in some ways, drunk on his own success in other ways, and things just compounded on him. And Robert Griffin by all means had WAY better character signals coming out of school than Manziel. I mean, I see people comparing him to Russell Wilson and I can't help but think the people that compare him to Russell Wilson don't really have a great understanding of what makes Russell Wilson who he is. Wilson is first and foremost an extremely dilgent leader, hard working, smart guy. This is why Russell Wilson is who he is. It's why he's overcome what he's overcome and come out smelling like roses all the way. Then you look at what made Wilson unique and that was his ability to be a rhythm passer but then hit you with plays that you find difficult to defend. There's no doubt Manziel has Russell Wilson's total athletic play-making ability in terms of the ability to make people miss and make silly plays happen, find the open guy and hit it. But he lacks all the other stuff and it's the other stuff that makes Wilson who he is. Same is really true of Colin Kaepernick...who had an A+ character coming out of Nevada.
Forgot to mention marginal arm strength. Russell Wilson et al have far better arms, IMO. Manziel struggles with arm strength. A more accurate Jay Fiedler?
I basically see what CK sees in Manziel and to be honest I wouldn't touch him until the third round even if I needed a QB in the worst way.
He's like a shorter, less physically impressive Vince Young. All the same Vince Young red flags that told me to avoid Young are going off with Johnny Manziel.
What do you think of Wilder? I think he would be a nice, cheap replacement for Thomas if they choose not to get your referenced top 2 or an older FA.
What are the odds he ends up a patriot? Based on your description and reasoning, he sounds like a Belichick kind of player. Curious, what do you think of Dion Sims? He didn't play too much this season, but overall, what is your read on him past, present and future.
That's a good comparison. Manziel may be a less of a head-case (more Charlie Sheen, less manic-depressive), but otherwise an apt comparison. And as a less physically impressive player there are legit concerns whether he'll be as adept at extending plays at the next level. I don't see him as anywhere near a Russell Wilson in terms of completing on-schedule plays.
He might be a Belichick type. They did value Daniel Graham immensely and then also Rob Gronkowski. But they also valued Ben Watson and Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez is the one that's locked up in jail right now and Gronk is still there, if a bit unhealthy. So I would suspect they look for a different prototype than Niklas. They won't be able to sniff Eric Ebron unless they trade up but they could look at a Richard Rodgers, Xavier Grimble or Gator Hoskins. They may even take a close look at Colt Lyerla.
If I had to choose just a few words to describe my biggest concern with Manziel those would be the ones. With that frame, that style, that physical prowess (really not that fast, he's not as fast as Russell Wilson who ran a 4.53 at the Combine)...he can't survive as a player who relies on "off schedule" plays as much as he does. I need to see more proof that he can increase his dosage of "on schedule" plays.
Huh. Now that I say that, for some reason NFL Draft Scout believes that Manziel has a 4.45 on file among his campus 40 yard dashes. Based on the film, I have doubt about that figure. The following was part of an interview done on March 3, 2013: Which to me is code for the 4.6's.
I love when I see stuff like this: http://www.nfl.com/combine/story/0a...-blake-bortles-lead-combines-top-quarterbacks LOL. This is evidence of someone who is going through the motions rather than thinking things through. What does this writer know? He knows that it's hip to doubt the validity of 40 times in a quarterback's evaluation. That's all he knows. So he goes with the flow. If he'd stop to think about things then he'd know that the 40 time and Johnny Manziel's overall physical prowess is EXTREMELY relevant to the discussion because of the style of football he's trying to play. Many believe the style doesn't translate unless there's significant physical prowess backing it up. Michael Vick couldn't have done what he's done over his career if he ran a 4.65 instead of a 4.40 (or better). Colin Kaepernick couldn't be a Super Bowl worthy quarterback if he didn't run around the 4.50 mark. When Robert Griffin suffered the knee injuries and stopped being a 4.40 type of player, he sucked. But no let's just take the "hip" cause and blanket it across the field with zero distinction, zero amount of thought. If I could boil down my belief about evaluating players into one relatively simple idea it would be this. Watch the tape and figure out what kind of player this player is trying to be, then hone in on whether he's got the goods to make that work.
Can I just reiterate how much I love love love love Lache Seastrunk? There's nothing normal about what he can do with a football and a crease. It's like what MacGuyver can do with a paperclip and piece of tin foil.
I would contend that the pronunciation of "Lake" makes his total name exponentially better. You get two water related words in Lake and Sea which gives a decided theme to his whole name. If it were La-che or La-shay, you wouldn't have the double water theme.
The way I have the backs rated right now, I think there are three backs with special qualities that would allow me to draft them early. However one of them has a significant character drawback that will drop his grade and I would only even bother if I were to do serious investigation and grow comfortable with the drawback. They are Tre Mason, Lache Seastrunk and Jeremy Hill. Everyone else I wouldn't bother with (including KaDeem Carey and Bishop Sankey) until very late in the draft because personally if I don't feel like I'm getting a guy with special qualities then I might as well just shotgun-spray the position late in the draft and in undrafted free agency. If you take three guys late/UDFA and you know what you're doing, you're going to end up with a Joique Bell, Danny Woodhead, Andre Ellington, Pierre Thomas, LeGarrette Blount, Fred Jackson, Rashad Jennings, Arian Foster or Alfred Morris. I just named any of the top 25 graded halfbacks via PFF that were drafted 6th round or later (most of them not drafted at all). That's 9 of the 25 highest graded players that were draft afterthoughts...and doesn't even include the likes of Zac Stacy, Bobby Rainey, Chris Ivory, Branden Bolden, BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Jordan Todman. There are however some guys that have me curious about whether they have special qualities or not. These guys for me right now are Marion Grice, Carlos Hyde and Charles Sims. It's not so much that I think they're as good as Mason/Seastrunk/Hill but that I have a pretty good vision for how exactly they fit at the next level and what it is they do so well that could get them on the field. With Hyde it's obvious, his power for short yardage and red zone situations. But for Grice and Sims it's the fact that they have wide receiver-like skills in the passing game. They would be the first guys I'd start looking to target late if they were still on the board.
I like what Polk has shown in the preseason games that I've watched him. Better than what I saw out of him at UW. There was a time many considered Polk to be a 1st rounder and that's where I really took up against him. I just didn't see that or even close to it.
Because at that spot in my opinion you can take a risk on a player IMO. I personally wouldn't want him at all, I'm just saying he strikes ne as s third round talent.
I think Johnny Manziel is in for a rude awakening at the NFL level when he discovers: A) That NFL secondaries know how to stay plastered to receivers B) That NFL defenders are really fast and hit really hard, and C) That NFL pressure, fans and media are not even close to the bubble he was wrapped in at Texas A&M
