Official NBA Truth & Rumors Thread

Arenas is NOT worth $111 million. He's done nothing for the Wizards, and they looked better with him out. Should've let him walk, or engineered a sign and trade. Oh well, more wins for Miami.

 

James Posey come back

 

Wow Bynum has alot of nerve asking for 80 mil. He has shown signs of being good, but thats all they are right now is signs.

 

Yeah, I agree with you. The Butler-Arenas-Jamison core topped out as a mid-40 win team with first round playoff exits. Given that, would you:
a. take this as an opportunity to start fresh, signing and trading those guys for value, and build around Caron Butler, their best player last year, or
b. bring the same group back together for the next four years, killing any cap flexibility in the process and hope for better results with the exact same methods.

If you chose B, please send your resume to Ernie Grunfeld, as he may have a job for you.

 

That's not happening anytime soon. If we assume the Clippers sign Brand, they're, at best, a 5 or 6 seed in the West, and that's under an absolute best case scenario. Frankly, I think they'd end up fighting for the last playoff spot.

 

I don't know....alot of "If's" in this..but..

Davis, Brand, Maggette, Kaman is a damn good start. of course..alot of "If's there.

 

You mean besides make them a playoff team? We missed the playoffs for about 20 years straight (well we had a year with Webber/Howard) before we picked up Arenas. He makes too much but it was this or let him walk and go back to the lottery. He's one of the very top scorers in the NBA as well as marketing gold for the Wizards, they needed to keep him. I'm not sure about more wins for Miami, right now the Wizards are the better team.

 

I would think that Brand opted out along with Davis so that they could play together. I know teams or players can't "collude" but this seems to be the case here. They are probably just making sure that they dot their I's and cross their T's so that it looks like it wasn't planned, but I would wager it was. Then again Brand probably didn't see that GS offer coming either.

 

All of which amounts to nothing. You are paying A-Rod level money to a guy who isn't even the best player on the team. (Caron Butler is.)

Like I said, more wins for Miami.

 

I like Caron but he's not worth more than Arenas, theres more to paying a player, Arenas fills the seats. His salary puts him right in line with where he is in the league around 10th or so. Compared to guys like Steve Francis and Marbury and all the other stiffs making over 15 million a season its a solid deal. You aren't apparently familiar with what players make in the NBA, this isn't AROD money its a close to max deal that superstars get in the NBA. Arod makes more than anyone in his league, Arenas doesn't he's hovering around 10th or so.
Yea Miami is great. They should look for wins elsewhere because the Wizards are the better team right now or did I miss Miami being the worst team in the league this year?
Also, the Wizards are not at luxury tax range so we still have flexibility to do more, this deal wasn't bad for the Wizards if you take the time to actually look at it.

 

I have to agree with FFS72 in that Arenas is one of the few players in the league that is more then just stats. Hes bigtime in the final 2 minutes of a game, hes a guy who can create his own shot and for others. he scores almost at will and hes an aggressive defender most of the time who plays the passing lanes well.

The wizards problem isnt related to Arenas, its that they have no good SG (Butler is a SF), and below average play from the Center position. They lack depth as well. They have no low post presence and are a perimeter oriented team except on the rare night Haywood asserts himself on the low block.

 

Yep the management basically is keeping the big three together: Butler, Jamison and Arenas and banking on getting some interior defense/rounding/scoring over the next few years or developing some of the younger guys. Just about every team in the league needs a quality 7 footer inside the Wizards are not exception. They still have room to be a player for free agents or to resign their own guys, this contract isn't a team killer.
Arenas has that rare ability to get his own shot at will and he is deadly in the clutch. If the Wizards big three can be healthy for a playoff run and they get some consistent play inside they can win the East (ok Boston would probably have to choke but still).

 

Knicks have verbally agreed with Duhon on a 2 year contract per espn bottom line.

 

With what money and with what draft picks? If, like you said, Arenas makes the Wizards a one-and-done playoff team, then you're out of the lottery and now you have no cap room to sign free agents.

 

The Wizards are going to have to do what everyone else does, draft well and develop the guys they have. Our front office is very good, we have a bunch of decent guys up front right now, nothing special but we have a solid group. The Wizards have never been healthy for the playoffs, its hard to say that the trio of Butler, Jamison and Arenas couldn't get them deep, they've never had them all healthy for a run. Remember Arenas was hurt almost all year and Butler was gone for awhile too, the Wizards still made the playoffs, with them they are even better. If he and Butler can make the playoffs at 100% I see no reason why they can't go deep in the east. They will still have exemptions and draft picks over the next few years they are going to have to draft wisely and get a mid level guy or two to help out. I'm happy about the team's future.

 

You didn't address my point, which was that if you make the playoffs, you don't get a lottery pick, and you miss out on the best players in the draft. You say the picks need to be developed, but outside of the first ten picks the best you can hope for is a contributor--after development. Development is meaningless if you don't have the talent.

The Wizards are just good enough to stay in the middle of the pack. Going beyond the second round in the playoffs is a pipe dream, and you can't sign a major free agent because you just paid Gilbert Arenas like he's A-Rod.

 

I did address the point, we will have to use the draft picks we get, yes they won't be lottery picks but we can get contributors. We don't need a great interior player just defense and rebounding. Yea it would be nice to get a beast inside like a young Shaq but with the trio that the Wizards have, all three can score lights out, we just need defense inside. We have a few young talented big guys and Etan Thomas hopefully can get healthy. Its not perfect but it makes us a contender with a shot at the Eastern Conference.

Ditching Arenas and going back to the lottery assures nothing. What if we are the worst team in the league and keep picking 4th or 5th and missing the best players? What if we drafted another Kwame Brown? Right now we have a playoff team that has a shot at a run, its not the best possible situation but its better than rolling the dice on the lottery and draft picks.

I still want to see what we can do with the big trio healthy, we've never had them all healthy for a playoff run, thats a big thing to remember. You never know who might be leftover in free agency to take an exemption or available at the trading deadline, etc. You build a playoff team and take your best shots, this gives us our best shot.

 

What if you overpay a player who doesn't deserve it and you never get beyond the second round in an extremely weak conference? Oh, wait.

You should have done a sign-and-trade to get AT LEAST a post presence. Butler and Jamison can give you plenty of offense when they aren't forced to defer to Arenas. Get a guy who can dominate the interior, sign James Posey to anchor your defense and your bench, and let Jamison and Butler do their thing; that's almost a guaranteed appearance in the ECF with a good chance at the Finals.

But you didn't do that, so enjoy your .500 seasons, your 5 seed, and your second round playoff exits.

 

Who...you...talking...to...???

 

Who was the post presence we could trade for? I am going to enjoy my Wizards for the next 5 years as a matter of fact.Acting like trades just fall out of thin air for top notch post players or that players of Arenas caliber don't get max deals, etc shows you don't pay much attention to the NBA.

 

So teams like San Antonio, and Phoenix that draft late every year dont develop talent?

Tony Parker, Ginobli, and Oberto were late picks for SA; much more then contributors. Barbosa is an example of a late pick developed by phoenix; one of the best 6th men in the league. Shoot even the Knicks can develop talent late and their the most inept franchise going but they still found players like David Lee, Nate Robinson, and Renaldo Balkman who are all rotation players or starters after pick 20. So if the Knicks can do it, anyone can right now.

And as far as the Wizards, with Arenas healthy, they are good enough to win the east if Boston isnt careful. All the Wizards need is adequate center and SG play and every year theres a handful of players late that pan out well and that somehow means the wizards cant find one just cause theyre in the middle of the pack? Im confused as to why.

 

ha, I actually read a good point on a Knicks board I check on: Duke guys are supposed to be smart but Duhon picked the Knicks over the Magic?

Im a Knick fan but I cant say I disagree.

 

They develop, but they never turn into key figures. Like you said, they've only gotten contributors; conversely, Tim Duncan is a #1 overall pick, and Phoenix had to re-acquire Nash after he became what he is.

I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Washington isn't going to assemble a championship cast picking 20th every year.

 

All good points. However, the larger point is this: they're nothing more than a one-and-done team with the Arenas-Butler-Jamison core. And they've had plenty of chances.

Moreover, aren't you at least a LITTLE nervous about handing over a max contract and (see below) killing any possible cap flexibility for the next several years to a guy coming off a major injury and who has a bit of a rep as a headcase?

If they're not at luxury tax range, they're damn close to it. They had about $42M in committed salary for 2008-9 BEFORE the Jamison and Arenas extensions. I don't know the exact details of the starting salaries, but that's got to add a minimum of $25M to salary, bringing them to $67M. That's a bit short of luxury tax territory, but not by much, and in the next few years, they'll certainly bump up against the tax, maybe as soon as 2009-10. In short, they've got very little cap flexibility right now, and will have none in the years moving forward. They are, for better or worse, committed to this threesome for at least the next three years, because there's not going to be much money available to make moves. Unless they pull something drastic, I'm fairly sure they won't be able to spend the MLE next year without hitting the luxury tax.

Except that they have very little history of drafting well. It's too early to pass much judgment on Young, Pecherov or Blatche, and certainly McGee, but the last Wizards draft pick to make a real impact on the NBA was Rip Hamilton, who of course did so elsewhere. (For the record, the only one of those who was any good last year was Blatche; both Young and Pecherov were lousy.) The last Washington draftee to make a positive, lasting impact for the Wizards was Juwan Howard in 1994. We're not talking about a front office that's got a fantastic history of mining gold late in the draft, like Detroit or San Antonio. If the young guys are awesome, the Wizards will be too, but then, can't just about every team in the NBA make that point?

I'm sorry, but this is sort of like saying "if the queen had balls, she'd be king". Why would you expect them to be healthy? Jamison's the only one who's got a good history of playing a full season. Butler's certifiably injury prone, and Arenas missed most of last year, a good chunk of 2006-7, about a third of 2003-4, and about half of his rookie year. Saying "we've never had those three healthy at the same time" is completely unsurprising given how often Butler and Arenas have been hurt. Frankly, I'd be far more surprised if they each played at least 80 games this year than I would if one of them were hurt.

 

I would assume that the fact that he'll start in NY is preferable to being Jameer Nelson's backup in Orlando. Perhaps the opportunity to showcase his skills will lead to a bigger payday in 2010. Personally, I think he's going to show himself to be a very mediocre PG, but at least he's a better signing than Beno Udrih. At 2 years and $6M total, it's not a bad gamble to take.

Edit: I just saw it was actually 2 years at $12M for Duhon. That's a much less impressive contract, and one they're far more likely to regret, though again, their focus is clearly 2010.

 

I'm not worried about the Arenas contract. Yea he is a head case, but he's lights out down the stretch and there is not denying he is one of the special scoring talents in the league. We are paying him to put up 23-25 a night and he will do that. His injury is a concern ofcourse but so was Amare's, Brand's and others, you have to go with the doctors and hope for the best. As big as the deal is I was reading Arenas actually could have gotten more which is shocking so really we did about as good as could with him.

We have a good front office, I do think we will draft enough to be competitive in the East. I like Blatche he was potential to be a solid player in this league. We drafted a boom or bust guy this year and I like Young too. We already have 3 legit all stars we don't need another Superstar, although that would be nice, we need solid role players and defense. I think we can find those players in the middle or late parts of the first rounds.

Yea it is likely that Arenas or Butler will miss part of a season but I don't think its that unlikely that both can be healthy for a playoff run sometime over the next five years. It might never happen but no one can control that kind of thing. I do think we can take the east if these guys are all healthy.

I don't think anywhere in my postings here have I stated we have the East in the bank or that we are the team to beat in the NBA, etc. This move gives us an exciting team with a legit shot (albeit not THAT great) to win the East or a title. This is our best shot for the next few years. I don't see throwing this team in the trash and going back to the lottery a legit strategy. There aren't a ton of great trades to make. You guys are naysaying here but whats the other options? Yea I'd love to trade Arenas for a awesome young center or PF and get the number one pick next year but thats not happening. The offseason moves we made in signing Arenas and Jamison (very fair deal I thought) give us the best shot so as a fan I'm happy the team isn't being cheap and we have a very exciting team to watch that has a shot in the East. You have to understand how much suffering its been to be a Wizards fan. I'll take this team and enjoy them. This is a very exciting team and really I don't see what other spectacular moves we could have made. You guys are being very critical with no alternatives given, the team basically had the choice to contend with this team or scrap it and roll the dice with lottery picks, personally I'd do the same thing the front office did.

 

I like Blatche as well, and he is definitely a player on the rise. And if I'm not mistaken, he signed an extension recently. I just don't think he's necessarily enough to put them over the top. For however maligned the supporting cast has been, the Wizards have had good seasons from big men to complement their trio of stars. Statistically, Etan Thomas in 2006-7 and Brendan Haywood in 2004-5 were both quite good, and the team didn't have much better results. So to your contention that they don't need another star, just role players, I'm not sure I agree. I think they need Blatche to become a reasonable facsimile of a young Jermaine O'Neal or Chris Bosh. Maybe he can, but I'm not sure I'd bet heavily on it.

I do think you have a good front office, but draft day has never been a Wizards strength, and Ernie Grunfeld's record as a drafter is pretty hit and miss. No great success stories in Washington so far (though Blatche was undeniably a good pick), and his record in NY wasn't fantastic either. He did find Michael Redd in Milwaukee, which gives some hope that he can unearth talent in the late rounds.

OK, how about a sign and trade of Arenas to Golden State for Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis? What about calling up Detroit and offering an Arenas for Chauncey Billups and Jason Maxiell trade? Or Arenas to Chicago for Derrick Rose and Larry Hughes? Or Philly for Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala? Maybe some of these moves would have to be reconfigured a bit for cap purposes, or maybe a bit more talent would have to be tossed in on one side or the other, but the general idea is there. There were most certainly other options available, and plenty of teams who would pay nicely for Arenas.

 

I don't like most of those trade options, certainly not the Detroit deal, really with Arenas coming off an injury I doubt we could get maximum value for him. I think our best bet is to stick with what he have and see if some of our young guys can step it up. I don't like the idea of trading Arenas in the East either.
Like I've said before you can't really take into account what has happened in past years since we've never had a full healthy team for a playoff run. Whether its Etan Thomas or Arenas or Butler, we've always been a man or two down. Our team needs to develop its depth and stay healthy. Two big IFs for sure but its the best chance we have IMO.

 

Duhon chose the Knicks because of the opportunity. He's basically been named the starting point guard already. He's got a great shot to put up bloated numbers in Mike D'Antoni's point guard friendly system, and he'll hit the market again two years from now with a chance to score a bigger contract. In Orlando, he'd of been Jameer Nelson's backup, although IMO, he'd have a shot to steal that job from him.

 

The thing is washington is not in need of a franchise player like your Tim Duncan example. They have a franchise player named Gilbert Arenas and 2 excellent supporting players. They just need to find supporting players one of which is a defensive interior presence.

The thing with Washington is the key pieces are already in place. They need to now do a better job of giving those players support because over the past 2 years it seems like if at its not Jamison Butler or Arenas its no one doing anything productive.

 

Clearly buddy, it was meant to be a joke. I know why he chose the knicks. It was supposed to make fun of his duke degree for being dumb enough to become a knick

 

I can remember a time NY was a place of greatness......